How the Crusaders Can Boost Their RPI
Iona needs to beat Santa Barbara
Game Info: 2:00 PM
Rhode Island needs to beat Old Dominion
Game Info: 6:00 PM
IPFW needs to beat Western Michigan
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESP3
Oakland needs to beat Michigan State
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESPU
Wright State needs to beat Murray State
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESP3
Detroit needs to beat Western Kentucky
Game Info: 7:00 PM
Missouri State needs to beat Southeast Missouri State
Game Info: 7:05 PM | TV: ESP3
My Ranking of the possibility of those happening:
Missouri State needs to beat Southeast Missouri State 100%... winless SEMO, RPI 319 0-11... about says it all, MoSt favored by 27.
Rhode Island needs to beat Old Dominion 80% ODU RPI is 218, 5-6 on the year; Rhody favored by 3 at home.
Iona needs to beat Santa Barbara 60% UCSB RPI is 127, record is 2-7, most losses are blowouts, lost to ArizSt by 2, Gaels favored by 14 at home
Detroit needs to beat Western Kentucky 40% Western Kentucky RPI 116; 5-5 best win vs, Stony Brook, Hilltoppers favored by 14 !
IPFW needs to beat Western Michigan 40% Broncho's RPI 267, 3-5, they are 3-point favs at home in this one.
Wright State needs to beat Murray State 40% Racer's RPI is 118, 4-6, lost 4-straight... RealTime has the Raiders favored by 13 at home!...(not buying it)
Oakland needs to beat Michigan State 3% Sparty is 18-point favorite... in the game at the Palace in Auburn Hills.
Quote from: talksalot on December 22, 2015, 11:21:53 AM
My Ranking of the possibility of those happening:
Missouri State needs to beat Southeast Missouri State 100%... winless SEMO, RPI 319 0-11... about says it all, MoSt favored by 27.
Rhode Island needs to beat Old Dominion 80% ODU RPI is 218, 5-6 on the year; Rhody favored by 3 at home.
Iona needs to beat Santa Barbara 60% UCSB RPI is 127, record is 2-7, most losses are blowouts, lost to ArizSt by 2, Gaels favored by 14 at home
Detroit needs to beat Western Kentucky 40% Western Kentucky RPI 116; 5-5 best win vs, Stony Brook, Hilltoppers favored by 14 !
IPFW needs to beat Western Michigan 40% Broncho's RPI 267, 3-5, they are 3-point favs at home in this one.
Wright State needs to beat Murray State 40% Racer's RPI is 118, 4-6, lost 4-straight... RealTime has the Raiders favored by 13 at home!...(not buying it)
Oakland needs to beat Michigan State 3% Sparty is 18-point favorite... in the game at the Palace in Auburn Hills.
Michigan State is without Valentine. I would think that raises it to 20%.
Quote from: SanityLost17 on December 22, 2015, 11:54:29 AM
Quote from: talksalot on December 22, 2015, 11:21:53 AM
My Ranking of the possibility of those happening:
Missouri State needs to beat Southeast Missouri State 100%... winless SEMO, RPI 319 0-11... about says it all, MoSt favored by 27.
Rhode Island needs to beat Old Dominion 80% ODU RPI is 218, 5-6 on the year; Rhody favored by 3 at home.
Iona needs to beat Santa Barbara 60% UCSB RPI is 127, record is 2-7, most losses are blowouts, lost to ArizSt by 2, Gaels favored by 14 at home
Detroit needs to beat Western Kentucky 40% Western Kentucky RPI 116; 5-5 best win vs, Stony Brook, Hilltoppers favored by 14 !
IPFW needs to beat Western Michigan 40% Broncho's RPI 267, 3-5, they are 3-point favs at home in this one.
Wright State needs to beat Murray State 40% Racer's RPI is 118, 4-6, lost 4-straight... RealTime has the Raiders favored by 13 at home!...(not buying it)
Oakland needs to beat Michigan State 3% Sparty is 18-point favorite... in the game at the Palace in Auburn Hills.
Michigan State is without Valentine. I would think that raises it to 20%.
ESPN U 6:00 Must see TV! To develop any kind of appreciation for Oakland's talents and potential weaknesses please take the time to dial them in and watch. This doesn't look to me like the Oakland of years past! Not sure this is even the same Greg Kampe!
Starting off poorly.
UCSB 24
Iona 10 11:01 in 1st half
EDIT: that helped,
UCSB 26 UCSB 41
Iona 26 5:34 1st half Iona 36 HALF
UCSB 80- Iona 76 AJ English and another Iona player were out. I don't think English played any in their close loss at Rhode Island either. Even a string of minor injuries can severely damage any teams short term results.
Oakland up big at the half 50-37. Sparties have no answer for Felder
Quote from: motowntitan on December 22, 2015, 06:59:17 PM
Oakland up big at the half 50-37. Sparties have no answer for Felder
Second half is a completely different story.
MSU wins in OT 99-93. In postgame interview Izzo says Oakland a real good team, and expects them to win their league and be in NCAA tourney. No Valpo love from Izzo tonite. Of course he just came off a tough win tonite so guess I can give him a break on his comment.
Quote from: vufan7501 on December 22, 2015, 09:09:30 PM
MSU wins in OT 99-93. In postgame interview Izzo says Oakland a real good team, and expects them to win their league and be in NCAA tourney. No Valpo love from Izzo tonite. Of course he just came off a tough win tonite so guess I can give him a break on his comment.
He's pissed CSU's sloppy seconds worked out better than Valpo's?
Word is that Tom 'if I don't do it someone else will' Izzo whispered to Felder in the handshake line that if he can find a way to graduate this spring, he would be happy to make him his 3rd player stolen from the HL in the past 5 years.
Quote from: a3uge on December 22, 2015, 09:22:38 PM
Quote from: vufan7501 on December 22, 2015, 09:09:30 PM
MSU wins in OT 99-93. In postgame interview Izzo says Oakland a real good team, and expects them to win their league and be in NCAA tourney. No Valpo love from Izzo tonite. Of course he just came off a tough win tonite so guess I can give him a break on his comment.
He's pissed CSU's sloppy seconds worked out better than Valpo's?
Given his history of using the HL like a farm team league, he may be working on a Felder transfer as we speak. Other than that I admire him as one of the games greatest coaches.
As for Oakland I now think they may be the ever so slightly better team. I already expect us to go heavily with the long armed zone and play very little man defense. Will Hooper and Felder shoot us out of it? Should be interesting!
Quote from: justducky on December 22, 2015, 09:59:14 PMQuote from: a3uge on December 22, 2015, 09:22:38 PMQuote from: vufan7501 on December 22, 2015, 09:09:30 PMMSU wins in OT 99-93. In postgame interview Izzo says Oakland a real good team, and expects them to win their league and be in NCAA tourney. No Valpo love from Izzo tonite. Of course he just came off a tough win tonite so guess I can give him a break on his comment.
He's pissed CSU's sloppy seconds worked out better than Valpo's?
Given his history of using the HL like a farm team league, he may be working on a Felder transfer as we speak. Other than that I admire him as one of the games greatest coaches. As for Oakland I now think they may be the ever so slightly better team. I already expect us to go heavily with the long armed zone and play very little man defense. Will Hooper and Felder shoot us out of it? Should be interesting!
If K. Felder fouls out, we win easy.
Quote from: vufan7501 on December 22, 2015, 09:09:30 PM
MSU wins in OT 99-93. In postgame interview Izzo says Oakland a real good team, and expects them to win their league and be in NCAA tourney. No Valpo love from Izzo tonite. Of course he just came off a tough win tonite so guess I can give him a break on his comment.
He just got pushed to the brink by Oakland. What did you expect him to say on the spur of the moment?
Maybe something like they (Oakland) are good and will contend for their league championship?
Maybe they will win the title but time will tell us about that. Valpo and Milwaukee will give Oakland solid challenges IMO.
Not sure if it's already been noted here and not trying to take anything away from Oakland's great game, but MSU was playing without Denzel Valentine. If Denzel was playing in that game, I don't think it would have been as close as it was.
Quote from: valpolaw on December 23, 2015, 07:59:24 AMNot sure if it's already been noted here and not trying to take anything away from Oakland's great game, but MSU was playing without Denzel Valentine. If Denzel was playing in that game, I don't think it would have been as close as it was.
Like wise, I'm not taking anything from Oakland but Oakland probably played to their fullest potential, they hit their ceiling that game. Once they added their transfer at semester, they improved a lot.
Our 2nd and 3rd conference games are on the road to Oakland and Detroit. In previous years the most difficult road trip was the Butler-Valpo. Now its the Oakland-Detroit.
Quote from: valpolaw on December 23, 2015, 07:59:24 AM
Not sure if it's already been noted here and not trying to take anything away from Oakland's great game, but MSU was playing without Denzel Valentine. If Denzel was playing in that game, I don't think it would have been as close as it was.
You are most likely correct, but I doubt that Bryn Forbes goes off for 32 with Valentine on the court. Forbes really stepped it up and took up the slack. Oakland has a very nice one two punch with Felder and Walker. Going to be a war when we meet them.
Just have to say that the number of fouls and the inconsistency with which they are called on both sides has got to be frustrating for the players.
Oakland should be a top 50 RPI team playing the #1 team like that - but they're only expected to be a 79 RPI. They have a ~7% chance of being a top 50 RPI team :crazy:
Valpo is in good shape come tournament time - either for an at-large or good seed. As it stands now, they'll have a ~13% chance at a 25 RPI or lower (which is crazy!) and an ~82% chance at a 50 RPI or lower (which is also crazy!). If Valpo beats Belmont again, they'll hopefully have 5 top 100 RPI wins (@Oregon State, @URI, @Belmont, Belmont, Iona) with Oregon State being a top 50 team. There's been teams in the 20-30 RPI range that have missed the tournament, but none of them had decent OOC wins. If Valpo splits Oakland and then loses in the conference tourney, they'd have an RPI of around 30, which would definitely be enough... but they'll probably drop a couple more games in there. If Valpo loses 2 conference games (and one in the conference tournament), the RPI goes to about 38, and if they lose 3 + the conference tournament, RPI goes to about 45, which would still give Valpo an outside shot, but not very likely to get an at-large.
But it's a little early to talk about this. So much can change with injuries or a bad shooting night vs a bottom team.
and with the cloud-covered daylight...
the Valpo Nolan RPI and Real-TimeRPI is 22, SOS 79; Top 100 wins... IPFW,ORE, OREst, Belmont.
Other OOC RPI:
IPFW 83
Iona 160
Rhody 125
Oregon 18
Oregon State 35
Belmont 92
Ball State 279
Indiana St 171
Chicago St 269
Missouri State 239
Oakland has RPI of 81 and SOS 178, has one top-100 win: Eastern Michigan, Univ Washington is now #108).
Detroit has RPI of 68 and league-best SOS of 16, has no top-100 wins)
Milwaukee has RPI 139, SOS 205, has no top 100 wins (Wisconsin is 109)
I'm watching the Cleveland State / Bowling Green "game"... CSU is 3-17 in the second half from the field.... at the Wolstein center... Falcons 52-38 with 3:00 to play...
Quote from: talksalot on December 23, 2015, 01:39:50 PM
and with the cloud-covered daylight...
the Valpo Nolan RPI and Real-TimeRPI is 22, SOS 79; Top 100 wins... IPFW,ORE, OREst, Belmont.
Other OOC RPI:
IPFW 83
Iona 160
Rhody 125
Oregon 18
Oregon State 35
Belmont 92
Ball State 279
Indiana St 171
Chicago St 269
Missouri State 239
Oakland has RPI of 81 and SOS 178, has one top-100 win: Eastern Michigan, Univ Washington is now #108).
Detroit has RPI of 68 and league-best SOS of 16, has no top-100 wins)
Milwaukee has RPI 139, SOS 205, has no top 100 wins (Wisconsin is 109)
The expected RPIs might tell the better story - it'll take into account the remaining schedule and uses sagarin's predictor to simulate thousands of seasons: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html)
IPFW (110.9) Sum H 78-64 W
Iona (115.5) MAAC H 83-58 W
Rhode Island (77.3) A10 A 55-58 W
Oregon (25.0) P12 A 73-67 L
Oregon St. (50.7) P12 A 57-63 W
Ball St. (207.2) MAC A 69-66 L
Belmont (78.8) OVC H 61-57 W
Indiana St. (170.0) MVC A 63-69 W
Chicago St. (313.6) WAC A 53-71 W
Missouri St. (263.3) MVC H 74-45 W
Belmont (78.8) OVC A
(http://www.rpiforecast.com/blog/mad-030607.png)
Valpolaw is correct -- MSU was short a key player. Oakland played exceptionally well. In light of our inconsistency lately, MSU blows us out by 15+ with Valentine in the lineup. However, we would have a real chance against the Butlers of the top 25.
Now the Grizzly board is talking of a possible at-large bid. :crazy:
Moral victory for Oakland. I'm giving them no love. I have confidence with T Walker and his ability to defend Felder. They live and die with Felder being able to hit acrobatic shots to win or get to the free throw line. If Peters is having an off day we have 7 others guys who can explode for points.
This "almost" victory will focus our guys even more when we play them.
Quote from: Chairback on December 23, 2015, 08:58:41 PMMoral victory for Oakland. I'm giving them no love. I have confidence with T Walker and his ability to defend Felder. They live and die with Felder being able to hit acrobatic shots to win or get to the free throw line.
How much of the Washington and MSU games did you watch? Believe what you want but this is not the Oakland of years past and Felder has plenty of help. Sorry but T Walker will struggle with Felder just like everyone else has. I think we will try to get back quickly and play more zone than man. It will help if we can make a high % of our shots and not turn the ball over.
Quote from: atkins on December 23, 2015, 06:24:27 PMValpolaw is correct -- MSU was short a key player. Oakland played exceptionally well. In light of our inconsistency lately, MSU blows us out by 15+ with Valentine in the lineup. However, we would have a real chance against the Butlers of the top 25.
Please don't sell us or Oakland short. The talent and experience difference between MSU and the HL's best is much narrower than you might think. The VU and Oakland benches are very deep and very comparable to some of the best.
Quote from: oklahomamick on December 23, 2015, 08:25:04 PM
Now the Grizzly board is talking of a possible at-large bid. :crazy:
"Almost wins" don't really count to the selection committee. They have 2 top 100 RPI wins and one of them is Eastern Michigan. Maybe if they beat Virginia and win out? Sagarin's simulations give that a 0.06% chance of happening.
Quote from: justducky on December 23, 2015, 09:29:36 PM
Quote from: Chairback on December 23, 2015, 08:58:41 PMMoral victory for Oakland. I'm giving them no love. I have confidence with T Walker and his ability to defend Felder. They live and die with Felder being able to hit acrobatic shots to win or get to the free throw line.
How much of the Washington and MSU games did you watch? Believe what you want but this is not the Oakland of years past and Felder has plenty of help. Sorry but T Walker will struggle with Felder just like everyone else has. I think we will try to get back quickly and play more zone than man. It will help if we can make a high % of our shots and not turn the ball over.
Quote from: atkins on December 23, 2015, 06:24:27 PMValpolaw is correct -- MSU was short a key player. Oakland played exceptionally well. In light of our inconsistency lately, MSU blows us out by 15+ with Valentine in the lineup. However, we would have a real chance against the Butlers of the top 25.
Please don't sell us or Oakland short. The talent and experience difference between MSU and the HL's best is much narrower than you might think. The VU and Oakland benches are very deep and very comparable to some of the best.
I watched a portion of the MSU game and was impressed by the fact that, except for the unis I could not see much of a difference between the two teams in terms of size, athleticism or skill. Scary actually.
Quote from: vufan7501 on December 22, 2015, 11:01:23 PM
Maybe something like they (Oakland) are good and will contend for their league championship?
Maybe they will win the title but time will tell us about that. Valpo and Milwaukee will give Oakland solid challenges IMO.
His team is #1 in the nation! My lord, if I was in his shoes, I'd easily think Oakland should win their league after witnessing that performance.
Of course it would be an exaggeration. I'm not defending his judgment, just his sincerity. It was hardly a slight to Valpo. Kampe's a friend of his, it's an in-state rivalry (don't laugh, it kind of is). You expect him to think of Valpo right after that game????
Quote from: StlVUFan on December 27, 2015, 12:44:00 AM
You expect him to think of Valpo right after that game????
The only thing Tom "if I don't do it someone else will" Izzo was thinking at that moment was how can I steal Felder away from the Horizon League (ala BW and Forbes).
Quote from: wh on December 27, 2015, 11:07:53 AMThe only thing Tom "if I don't do it someone else will" Izzo was thinking at that moment was how can I steal Felder away from the Horizon League (ala BW and Forbes).
"Stick with me kid and I'll have you wearing diamonds instead of handcuffs."
I think this is loosely quoted from an old Bogart, Bacall movie but it popped right into my head when you mentioned Izzo's man love for Felder.
FYI, Kampe's responds to the Izzo quote of He'll be mad if ..... "Tom hasn't seen Valpo!" Also, Yes Stlvalpofan.... a big enough rivalry that 21,000 fans were at the game, set a record for the largest NCAA crowd ever at the Palace and there have been many big games there over the years including finial 8 games. Even Lebron didn't draw that crowd. Should Oakland have won, maybe, the ball rolled around the rim and fell out. It goes in we have a chance at an at large bid. Did we get cheated, a little, but we were playing #1 with Big Ten refs. No one here doesn't think that Valpo is still the favorite. U are. But this is the best Oakland team I've ever seen and we have had some really good ones. A shame it has to be the same year you guys might have your best too. (I guess that's a good question....is this your best ever????)
Quote from: Grizz on December 27, 2015, 12:18:04 PM
FYI, Kampe's responds to the Izzo quote of He'll be mad if ..... "Tom hasn't seen Valpo!" Also, Yes Stlvalpofan.... a big enough rivalry that 21,000 fans were at the game, set a record for the largest NCAA crowd ever at the Palace and there have been many big games there over the years including finial 8 games. Even Lebron didn't draw that crowd. Should Oakland have won, maybe, the ball rolled around the rim and fell out. It goes in we have a chance at an at large bid. Did we get cheated, a little, but we were playing #1 with Big Ten refs. No one here doesn't think that Valpo is still the favorite. U are. But this is the best Oakland team I've ever seen and we have had some really good ones. A shame it has to be the same year you guys might have your best too. (I guess that's a good question....is this your best ever????)
Yes
Quote from: Chairback on December 23, 2015, 08:58:41 PM
Moral victory for Oakland. I'm giving them no love. I have confidence with T Walker and his ability to defend Felder. They live and die with Felder being able to hit acrobatic shots to win or get to the free throw line. If Peters is having an off day we have 7 others guys who can explode for points.
This "almost" victory will focus our guys even more when we play them.
The matchups will be fun. Felder will no doubt be a problem but so will be Felder's guarding of E Victor.
Let me throw a rare compliment Oakland's way. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the game and came away totally impressed with the Grizzlies. If only some of the teams from the HL's old guard were doing half as much to elevate their programs as Oakland is doing, the HL would be the envy of the mid major world.
Quote from: Grizz on December 27, 2015, 12:18:04 PMFYI, Kampe's responds to the Izzo quote of He'll be mad if ..... "Tom hasn't seen Valpo!"
Makes sense to me, Grizz. Looking forward to another barnburner on the 8th.
My point was, for a coach like Izzo, the old saw about "a bird in the hand" applies. He's not scouting Valpo, and he probably isn't following us. He played Oakland, that's who he scouted, and that's who he saw. Plus, it's very common for a coach at Izzo's level to give out effusive compliments like that to a coach he just barely beat. It's a way of saying to his fanbase, "NO, WE DID *NOT* JUST LAY AN EGG AGAINST AN INFERIOR TEAM, YOU IDIOTS!"
Izzo doesn't scout Valpo nor does he know we were the preseason favorite by a large margin
Hey Grizz. It is not a shame at all that we both have good teams. I wish all the league did. That's the only way to elevate our conference. Hats off to coach Kempe for remaining humble and acknowledging Valpo is the preseason favorite. However, we all know that the preseason polls mean squat when the two teams meet on the hard floor.
going into this week's activity...courtesy RealTimeRPI:... HL Conference RPI has jumped to #13 with an overall SOS ranking of #9
RPI Rk Horizon League Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Down 2 From Last Week 20 Valparaiso 0-0 8-2 0.6253 87 0.5438
Down 26 From Last Week 63 Detroit 0-0 4-4 0.5750 13 0.6000
Up 16 From Last Week 83 Oakland 0-0 7-4 0.5566 177 0.5003
Up 19 From Last Week 115 Milwaukee 0-0 7-4 0.5369 190 0.4956
Down 21 From Last Week 173 Cleveland St. 0-0 3-8 0.4993 32 0.5748
UP 14 From Last Week 184 Green Bay 0-0 4-5 0.4891 228 0.4813
Up 25 From Last Week 187 Wright St. 0-0 4-7 0.4863 98 0.5346
Up 7 From Last Week 261 Youngstown St. 0-0 3-8 0.4392 221 0.4835
Up 2 From Last Week 285 North. Kentucky 2-6 0.4273 182 0.4982 0-0 Still in the Atlantic Sun...
Up 1 From Last Week 347 Ill. Chicago 0-0 0-8 0.3466 260 0.4622
Before the end of the Belmont Game
Valpo RPI 19 SOS 79
After the Scores were posted for the other opponent games, before the Belmont game went final
Valpo RPI 20 SOS 85
After the Belmont game went final
Valpo RPI 31 SOS 85
Belmont went from 93 before the game... to 73 after the game went final...
NOW... watch that Valpo RPI plummet after we play #348 UIC on Saturday afternoon... 1PM tip in the ARC. VU going for 20 in a row at home.
The last time Valpo was 10-3 on the year, was 2007-8... 3rd loss was by 32 @ the Dean Dome 90-58 to UNC... and after that game our RPI was 46... falling from 39...
the next game that year was Indiana Wesleyan, a 93-46 win.
I copied this over from the UIC Game thread... and added one more time bracket...
Taking a periodic look at the Nolan RPI as the scores come in:
1. After the Valpo and Green Bay finals:
2. After the Oakland and Detroit finals
3. After the Wright State final
4. after a few more, like Virginia and OK State
5. and a few more
3:42pm 4:10pm 5:40pm 6:48pm 8:35pm 10:15pm
Valpo 42 42 41 42 44 40 !!
Oakland 94 95 95 91 93 94
Detroit 102 106 110 112 106 106
Milwaukee 134 133 166 170 170 169
Green Bay 148 155 153 150 151 153
Cleveland State 162 172 168 168 165 163
Wright State 198 192 158 158 156 155
Youngstown State 258 257 259 261 265 264
Northern Kentucky 306 307 307 305 304 303
Illinois Chicago 344 344 345 346 345 344
After falling off the map it looks like Iona has everybody back in uniform and returning to health. :) Wouldn't be shocked to see them claw their way back into the top 100 and we need all the RPI help we can get!
Taking a periodic look at the Nolan RPI as the scores come in:
1. After the Valpo and Green Bay finals:
2. After the Oakland and Detroit finals
3. After the Wright State final
4. after a few more, like Virginia and OK State
5. and a few more
3:42pm 4:10pm 5:40pm 6:48pm 8:35pm 10:15pm... and 10:25 Sunday Morning
Valpo 42 42 41 42 44 40 40
Oakland 94 95 95 91 93 94 92
Detroit 102 106 110 112 106 106 112
Milwaukee 134 133 166 170 170 169 169
Green Bay 148 155 153 150 151 153 153
Cleveland State 162 172 168 168 165 163 163
Wright State 198 192 158 158 156 155 154
Youngstown State 258 257 259 261 265 264 263
Northern Kentucky 306 307 307 305 304 303 300
Illinois Chicago 344 344 345 346 345 344 344
REAL TIME RPI.com predicted final standings... before any HL Games:
Valpo 17 - 1 Loss @Detroit 70-69
Oakla 13 - 5 Loss to Valpo, @Detroit, @Milw, @Clev, @Valpo
Detro 12 - 6 Loss @Wright,@Milw, @GBay, @Clev, @Valpo @Oakl
Milwa 11 - 7 Road wins @ YST and NKY; Home loss to Valpo
GrBay 10 - 8 Loss @Clev, @Valpo, H-Oak, @Milw, @WSU, @Detr, @Oak, H-Valpo
WriSt 9 - 9 Loss @Milw, @Gbay, @Valpo, @Oak, @UDM, @Valpo, H-Oak, @YST, @Clev
Young 5 - 13 Wins @UIC, H-Clev, H-UIC, H-Wright, H-NorKy
NorKy 3 - 15 Wins H-Yst, H-Cleve, H-UIC
IllCh 2 - 16 Wins H-Clev, H-NorKy
so far... They missed the Wright State- Milwaukee game; where Milw was a 12-point favorite.
Looks like a tweaking is in order before the next installment.
Edit: myself and realtime RPI think a lot alike.
Yeh, my problem with their predictor is the value they give to Home Court.... 16 points!!
Valpo vs. Oak: Valpo by 70-69 there, and Valpo 77-61 at home
Valpo vs. UDM: UDM 70-69 there, and Valpo 77-61 at home
Valpo vs. MIL: Valpo 78-61 at home, Valpo 70-69 there
Valpo vs. GBY: Valpo 79-60 at home, Valpo 71-68 there
Valpo vs. YST: Valpo 75-66 there, Valpo 83-58 at home
Valpo vs. WSU: Valpo 72-68 there, Valpo 80-59 at home
Valpo vs. NKY: Valpo 76-66 there, Valpo 84-57 at home
Valpo vs. CLE: Valpo 79-60 at home, Valpo 71-68 there
Valpo vs. UIC: Valpo 86-56 at home, Valpo 78-64 there
Home court in basketball is probables more valuable then home court/field/ice in the other major sports. Not sure what amount I'd give, but 16 seems high to me.
Looks like we are in for some snoozes at the ARC, lol.
Watching Oregon State beating Oregon by 14 with 14 to go. Presume it is better for us if OSU wins. True??
As for RPI, it won't matter. Our opponents will go 1-1 in that game.
RPI is based solely on winning percentages.
For our resume, it would make the win over OSU look a bit better.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 03, 2016, 08:14:34 PM
As for RPI, it won't matter. Our opponents will go 1-1 in that game.
RPI is based solely on winning percentages.
For our resume, it would make the win over OSU look a bit better.
But the loss at Oregon worse? :(
At least for the Sagarins it may help. It may propel OSU into the top 50 so we may pick up a win over the top 50. Oregon was at about 30 and OSU was just below us at about 52 or so. We'll see. Seems to me that we want teams that we beat to beat teams we lot to but then again, I don't have a clue... :crazy:
vu72 nails it!
RPI Falls to 44; on account of the other games involving MVC and Summit league teams, as "our opponents' opponents" slipped.
Sagarin did move OSU up to 45 so we are 1-1 against top 50; our Sagarin rating is 49
Oregon is 40
Horizon League is 1-16 against top-50 teams (0-11 against top 25),
Northern Kentucky is 0-3 against top-25 teams: Michigan, Xavier and West Virginia.
Quote from: HC on January 03, 2016, 10:46:21 AM
Edit: myself and realtime RPI think a lot alike.
In the past, the predictions at RPI forecast have seemed more reasonable.
to answer the Subject line: "Don't Lose to Youngstown State at home"
Valpo and UIC getting the night off... the HL finals are in, a lot of other games still out...but here are the RPI's... and Oakland took the pounding...
Valpo 44
Detroit 110
Oakland 131
Green Bay 145
Wright State 164
Milwaukee 178
Cleveland State 179
Youngstown State 219
Northern Kentucky 299
Illinois Chicago 345
One of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
Gonna cheer for Baylor anyway...
Quote from: talksalot on January 05, 2016, 05:56:18 PMOne of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
It's basically a wash. They're both opponents of our opponents, their win percentage each shows up in the third piece of our RPI. It is opponents' opponents' winning _percentage_, so, I guess, if one of OK State or Baylor is going to wind up with fewer games then we'd prefer them to win, it'll have a (slightly) bigger effect on the percentage.
Baylor won it 77-62...and Valpo's RPI is back to 40 (thanks to Rhody)
Quote from: agibson on January 05, 2016, 09:43:45 PM
Quote from: talksalot on January 05, 2016, 05:56:18 PMOne of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
It's basically a wash. They're both opponents of our opponents, their win percentage each shows up in the third piece of our RPI. It is opponents' opponents' winning _percentage_, so, I guess, if one of OK State or Baylor is going to wind up with fewer games then we'd prefer them to win, it'll have a (slightly) bigger effect on the percentage.
Not sure it's a wash. Isn't the formula for RPI 25% our WL% + 50% Opponent WL% + 25% OO W-L%? Close but not a complete wash given unequal weighting of O and OO.
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 06, 2016, 11:36:16 PM
Quote from: agibson on January 05, 2016, 09:43:45 PM
Quote from: talksalot on January 05, 2016, 05:56:18 PMOne of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
It's basically a wash. They're both opponents of our opponents, their win percentage each shows up in the third piece of our RPI. It is opponents' opponents' winning _percentage_, so, I guess, if one of OK State or Baylor is going to wind up with fewer games then we'd prefer them to win, it'll have a (slightly) bigger effect on the percentage.
Not sure it's a wash. Isn't the formula for RPI 25% our WL% + 50% Opponent WL% + 25% OO W-L%? Close but not a complete wash given unequal weighting of O and OO.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html
Both Oklahoma State and Baylor account for ~.16% of our RPI, but that will drop to ~.03% by the end of the year. Perhaps Oklahoma state is .034 while Baylor is .031. Both teams won't really impact our overall RPI one way or the other by the end of the year.
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 06, 2016, 11:36:16 PM
Quote from: agibson on January 05, 2016, 09:43:45 PM
Quote from: talksalot on January 05, 2016, 05:56:18 PMOne of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
It's basically a wash. They're both opponents of our opponents, their win percentage each shows up in the third piece of our RPI. It is opponents' opponents' winning _percentage_, so, I guess, if one of OK State or Baylor is going to wind up with fewer games then we'd prefer them to win, it'll have a (slightly) bigger effect on the percentage.
Not sure it's a wash. Isn't the formula for RPI 25% our WL% + 50% Opponent WL% + 25% OO W-L%? Close but not a complete wash given unequal weighting of O and OO.
Hm? OK State and Baylor are both OO, right?
I posted this last spring, but wanted to bring it back to refresh everyone's memory on how RPI works.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick RPI Tutorial
The RPI is a tool that the NCAA Selection Committee uses to determine at-large bids and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. It is not the only tool they use, and many believe that it is being used less and less as years pass and more analytics are available.
It is a measure that is based simply on winning percentages of your team, your team's opponents and your team's opponents' opponents. The last two of these is where the strength of schedule is calculated.
Only games against Division 1 teams are included in the calculations.
The Math (Simple Version) – See below for why some numbers may not always match:
25% of team winning percentage
50% of opponents winning percentage (games against your team are excluded in this area only)
25% of opponents' opponents winning percentage
Thus, if your team is 8-2, their winning percentage is .800. Multiply that by 25% and you get .200
If your opponents are all 7-3, their combined record would be 70-30. Subtract 8 losses and 2 wins because you take out results against your team, and that record changes to 68-22, good for a winning percentage of .756. After multiplying this number by 50%, you get .378.
If all of your opponents' opponents are 4-6, this is a total of 400-600 (ten games, ten teams, ten opponents). The winning percentage of these teams is .400, of which you take 25%, good for .100.
In this scenario, .200 + .378 + .100 would give your team an RPI rating of .678.
Notice in this example (and any you could create), that it DOES NOT MATTER which teams your team beats or their opponents beat, only the winning percentages. So, it's not a matter of who you beat for the RPI, just how many. (The who comes into play when you get their winning percentages factored in). Thus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".
Understand that my saying "does not matter which teams" only applies to a team's own schedule (ie: 15-15 is the same winning percentage, regardless of which of their games they win and lose). It ALWAYS matters how good the teams you play are.
The Math (Complicated Version Details):
The formula that the NCAA uses has a few tweaks to it. Over time, research has shown that the home team wins about 70% of the time, so the NCAA chose to adjust their actual formula.
Home Wins: .6 wins
Home Losses: 1.4 losses
Road Wins: 1.4 wins
Road Losses: .6 losses
Neutral site games did not change.
I won't go back through an entire example, but you can see how it would affect a team's record. To the NCAA RPI formula, Valpo has a 8.6-1.8 record thus far (1/7/2016)
Nice summary.
One clarification: apparently the home/away tweaks only affect the _first_ factor of the RPI, your win-loss percentage. Not the other two factors.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 07, 2016, 10:27:29 AMThus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".
Right. Opponents come into play in a scheduling sense, "A game that would really help our RPI if we could get it on our schedule." And, once your schedule's set, any one win is the same as any other win. You could lose to your 15 best opponents, or to your 15 worst, and it would give you the same RPI.
Quote
The RPI is a tool that the NCAA Selection Committee uses to determine at-large bids and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. It is not the only tool they use, and many believe that it is being used less and less as years pass and more analytics are available.
It's also been said that your _opponents_ RPI matters more than your RPI. That the summaries the selection committee sees on the team sheets (top 50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, or whatever) are persuasive, but that the team's own RPI is relatively less visible, relatively less important.
And, of course, there _is_ such a thing as a "win that could really help our selection/seeding" in the sense that I'm sure the committee cares about quality wins, and they do show up on the team sheet.
But, given a fixed W-L record, which teams you beat, and which beat you does not affect your own RPI. (You'd have to decide, I guess, whether quality wins are more important than bad losses, for its effect on your seeding or selection.)
Quote from: agibson on January 07, 2016, 09:08:16 AM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 06, 2016, 11:36:16 PM
Quote from: agibson on January 05, 2016, 09:43:45 PM
Quote from: talksalot on January 05, 2016, 05:56:18 PMOne of these days, someone is going to explain this to me... which would be better for Valpo's RPI:
Oklahoma State: Loser to Missouri State whom we beat
Baylor: Loser to Oregon who beat us
It's basically a wash. They're both opponents of our opponents, their win percentage each shows up in the third piece of our RPI. It is opponents' opponents' winning _percentage_, so, I guess, if one of OK State or Baylor is going to wind up with fewer games then we'd prefer them to win, it'll have a (slightly) bigger effect on the percentage.
Not sure it's a wash. Isn't the formula for RPI 25% our WL% + 50% Opponent WL% + 25% OO W-L%? Close but not a complete wash given unequal weighting of O and OO.
Hm? OK State and Baylor are both OO, right?
Oops, you are correct. I confused Ok St. with Oregon State. :-X
So had we lost to Oregon State and beat Ball State, our RPI would have been exactly the same.
Can you tell that I am unable to get over that stupid loss?
Quote from: ValpoFan on January 08, 2016, 10:44:55 AM
So had we lost to Oregon State and beat Ball State, our RPI would have been exactly the same.
Can you tell that I am unable to get over that stupid loss?
Yes.
Winning percentages are all that matter...
Some numbers to make some people realize that "scoreboard watching" might be a waste of time.
This is a bit simplified, but that's only to make the numbers easier to digest. It assumes that all teams play exactly 30 games.
------------------------
The RPI Formula ..... (.250)WP + (.500)OWP + (.250)OOWP
The "PERFECT" RPI is 1.000.
------------------------
If every team started at .000 and got "points" added to their RPI each time they, their opponents or their opponents' opponents won, each game would be worth the following:
WP = .250/30 = .008333 points per win
OWP = .500/900 = .000555 points per win
OOWP = .250/27000 = .00000925 points per win
So, while each game does matter...sitting on the couch and following along with the Portland State/Montana State game and rooting for Portland state because Oregon played them is probably a waste of your time.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 07, 2016, 10:27:29 AMThe Math (Complicated Version Details):
The formula that the NCAA uses has a few tweaks to it. Over time, research has shown that the home team wins about 70% of the time, so the NCAA chose to adjust their actual formula.
Home Wins: .6 wins
Home Losses: 1.4 losses
Road Wins: 1.4 wins
Road Losses: .6 losses
Neutral site games did not change.
I won't go back through an entire example, but you can see how it would affect a team's record. To the NCAA RPI formula, Valpo has a 8.6-1.8 record thus far (1/7/2016)
Looking back to our scheduling it is no mystery why we chose to play Chicago St on the road (if we needed another game). Agreeing to start series with Indiana St and Rhode Island on the road could also have been partially rationalized by the expected at large nudges that road victories could produce. Or is this just another case of me rooting for Portland St over Montana St? :)
Quote from: justducky on January 08, 2016, 11:37:20 AM
Looking back to our scheduling it is no mystery why we chose to play Chicago St on the road (if we needed another game). Agreeing to start series with Indiana St and Rhode Island on the road could also have been partially rationalized by the expected at large nudges that road victories could produce.
Those affect the highest "effect per game" section of the RPI. So, they have a noticeable effect, for sure.
Quote
WP = .250/30 = .008333 points per win
OWP = .500/900 = .000555 points per win
And, even for OWP, the effect of individual games is not exactly negligible. 0.001 of RPI can sometimes mean a couple of places in the RPI ranking (at the moment #35 is 0.0005 below us, #33 is 0.0011 above us). So, a couple of OW one way or the other, compared to alternate possibilities, can move you a few places in the RPI. This seems roughly anecdotally consistent with the kinds of changes talksalot reports.
So, at best a way to pass idle time, to get engaged with the games a bit, sure. But, it can have _some_ observable effect. (individual OO games? obviously less so).
The Summit is holding at #10 in conference RPI, while the HL has moved down to #15. The MVC is just at #14, so it is an off year for them.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 08, 2016, 11:05:17 AM
So, while each game does matter...sitting on the couch and following along with the Portland State/Montana State game and rooting for Portland state because Oregon played them is probably a waste of your time.
An NASCAR fan who looked at only their driver's car going around the track would be a fan watching a car go around in circles. Thinking beyond one's own team and rooting for other participants is one of the major benefits of the RPI-watching silliness.
A good way to increase RPI is to beat Oakland on the road convincingly! Up to 28 on Warren Nolen. Pomeroy down to 20!
I see before the game tonight, RealTimeRpi has us running the HL table...
01-08 at Oakland 9-6 (1-1) 135 69-68 W - Scouting
01-10 at Detroit 6-5 (2-0) 116 70-69 W - Scouting
01-14 Milwaukee 9-5 (2-1) 178 79-59 W - Scouting
01-16 Green Bay 8-5 (3-0) 140 78-60 W - Scouting
01-18 at Youngstown St. 4-10 (1-2) 233 72-65 W - Scouting
01-22 at Wright St. 5-8 (1-1) 169 71-67 W - Scouting
01-24 at North. Kentucky 2-9 (0-2) 303 73-63 W - Scouting
01-28 Cleveland St. 3-11 (0-3) 185 79-58 W - Scouting
01-30 Youngstown St. 4-10 (1-2) 233 80-57 W - Scouting
02-06 at Ill. Chicago 0-10 (0-1) 343 74-61 W - Scouting
02-11 North. Kentucky 2-9 (0-2) 303 81-55 W - Scouting
02-13 Wright St. 5-8 (1-1) 169 79-59 W - Scouting
02-16 at Cleveland St. 3-11 (0-3) 185 71-66 W - Scouting
02-19 Oakland 9-6 (1-1) 135 78-60 W - Scouting
02-21 Detroit 6-5 (2-0) 116 77-61 W - Scouting
02-26 at Milwaukee 9-5 (2-1) 178 70-67 W - Scouting
02-28 at Green Bay 8-5 (3-0) 140 70-68 W - Scouting
funny, tho... they predict us to finish with a record of 18-1 in the league. Don't know how to do that.
Quote from: talksalot on January 08, 2016, 10:27:49 PMfunny, tho... they predict us to finish with a record of 18-1 in the league. Don't know how to do that.
Probability and statistics. Say you're a 90% favorite. 90% chance to win one game. But only (90%)^2 = 81% to win two in a row. Only 18.5% chance to win 16 in a row.
Before Oakland, RPIForecast had us favorites to win every game. Only 53% at Oakland, 65% or better for every other game. But only a 4% chance to run the table. (Should rise to 8%, or maybe 10% or so if our Sagarin improves, after the win).
Running the table's not going to be easy, for sure.
But wait. We only play 18 games. How can we be 18-1?
Quote from: VULB#62 on January 08, 2016, 11:11:34 PMBut wait. We only play 18 games. How can we be 18-1?
THAT was my point...thanks #62...
~~captain obvious
Ha! Too obvious for me. Too late at night maybe, I missed it entirely.
Sorry for the stats 101.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 08, 2016, 11:05:17 AM
Some numbers to make some people realize that "scoreboard watching" might be a waste of time.
This is a bit simplified, but that's only to make the numbers easier to digest. It assumes that all teams play exactly 30 games.
------------------------
The RPI Formula ..... (.250)WP + (.500)OWP + (.250)OOWP
The "PERFECT" RPI is 1.000.
------------------------
If every team started at .000 and got "points" added to their RPI each time they, their opponents or their opponents' opponents won, each game would be worth the following:
WP = .250/30 = .008333 points per win
OWP = .500/900 = .000555 points per win
OOWP = .250/27000 = .00000925 points per win
So, while each game does matter...sitting on the couch and following along with the Portland State/Montana State game and rooting for Portland state because Oregon played them is probably a waste of your time.
Not when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2016, 08:44:35 AMNot when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.
Not according to Frank Stoeber the roller of this
(https://themandyshow.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/twine.jpg)
http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543 (http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543)
Quote from: bbtds on January 09, 2016, 04:03:04 PM
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 09, 2016, 08:44:35 AMNot when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.
Not according to Frank Stoeber the roller of this
(https://themandyshow.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/twine.jpg)
http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543 (http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543)
That's tough to beat.
This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.
Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week. Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. >:(
Quote from: motowntitan on January 10, 2016, 10:26:00 AM
This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.
Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week. Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. >:(
Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.
I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]
Original Posting 12/23... updating to current:
the Valpo Nolan RPI is 24, SOS 87;
OOC 12/23 1/10:
IPFW 83 76
Iona 160 149
Rhody 125 95
Oregon 18 11
Ore St 35 31
Belmont 92 108
Ball St 279 199
Ind St 171 142
Chcg St 269 320
Mo State 239 220
Quote from: talksalot on January 10, 2016, 04:19:42 PM
Original Posting 12/23... updating to current:
the Valpo Nolan RPI is 24, SOS 87;
OOC 12/23 1/10:
IPFW 83 76
Iona 160 149
Rhody 125 95
Oregon 18 11
Ore St 35 31
Belmont 92 108
Ball St 279 199
Ind St 171 142
Chcg St 269 320
Mo State 239 220
This sums up much of our recent rise. Our OOC foes are starting to pile up some wins.
An Oregon home win tonight over #61 Stanford could trigger further WN-RPI and Pomeroy #19 improvements. Lets enjoy it while we can because we could soon start to drop even after we win.
Big test coming up for Iona on Friday night. They will play at home vs Monmouth who was recently sitting at #21. I still expect Iona (now near full strength) to mow through most of their conference schedule to reemerge comfortably in the top 100. A win over Monmouth might cover much of that ground in one night. Even a loss will probably raise their RPI.
I don't know what to think about IPFW, Ind St, and Ball St but all have met or exceeded my early expectations. :thumbsup:
Quote from: justducky on January 10, 2016, 05:53:18 PMAn Oregon home win tonight over #61 Stanford could trigger further WN-RPI and Pomeroy #19 improvements. Lets enjoy it while we can because we could soon start to drop even after we win.
Oregon wins over Stanford 71-58. That pushes them into Warren Nolan #10 and us to #22. Our leap from 23 to 22 was over Providence by .0001 point. Difficult stretches coming up for Oregon, Oregon St, and Rhode Island so I expect this to be about our lowest RPI rating.
Certainly has been a fun week of basketball. :)
RPI Rk Horizon League Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 22 From Last Week 22 Valparaiso 3-0 11-3 0.6210 88 0.5402
Up 5 From Last Week 154 Green Bay 3-1 8-6 0.5091 252 0.4637
Down 1 From Last Week 156 Wright St. 2-1 6-8 0.5081 127 0.5166
Down 40 From Last Week 157 Detroit 3-1 7-6 0.5079 130 0.5144
Down 77 From Last Week 166 Oakland 2-2 10-7 0.5023 233 0.4706
Down 1 From Last Week 172 Milwaukee 3-1 10-5 0.4975 309 0.4384
Down 42 From Last Week 207 Cleveland St. 0-4 3-12 0.4713 48 0.5617
Up 47 From Last Week 215 Youngstown St. 2-2 5-10 0.4659 170 0.5004
Down 1 From Last Week 345 Ill. Chicago 0-3 0-12 0.3660 192 0.488
and the projections from RealTime:
Valpo 18-0
Milwa 11-7
Oakla 11-7
GrBay 11-7
Detro 10-8
Young 8-10
Cleve 5-13
NorKy 3-15
IllCh 2-16
so... if that works out... we would clinch ... wow... like early.
Quote from: a3uge on January 10, 2016, 11:34:49 AM
Quote from: motowntitan on January 10, 2016, 10:26:00 AM
This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.
Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week. Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. >:(
Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.
I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]
I see your point, but I think maybe you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.
Quote from: wh on January 11, 2016, 06:14:33 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 10, 2016, 11:34:49 AM
Quote from: motowntitan on January 10, 2016, 10:26:00 AM
This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.
Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week. Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. >:(
Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.
I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]
I see your point, but I think maybe you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.
I wonder what our expected RPI would be if you replace the bottom 3 Horizon League teams with the, say, bottom three Summit teams...
Quote from: a3uge on January 11, 2016, 06:18:43 PM
Quote from: wh on January 11, 2016, 06:14:33 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 10, 2016, 11:34:49 AM
Quote from: motowntitan on January 10, 2016, 10:26:00 AM
This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.
Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week. Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. >:(
Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.
I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]
I see your point, but I think maybe you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.
I wonder what our expected RPI would be if you replace the bottom 3 Horizon League teams with the, say, bottom three Summit teams...
Okay, just for you wh, I did the math because you asked. I agree with you that the bottom teams are dragging the Horizon down, but it affects us way more than Detroit. If Valpo makes the tournament, the RPI hit could drop Valpo from a 10-11 seed to a 12 seed. If Detroit makes it, the RPI impact is the difference between a 15 seed and a 15 seed. See what I mean?
So here's the results.
I punched the numbers in and replaced the UIC and NKU with IUPUI and Western Illinois. Assuming wins to those four games and standard Sagarin probability to the remaining schedule it simulated like this:
Without UIC/NKU:
W-L/RPI/SOS
24-5/19/129
With:
W-L/RPI/SOS
24-5/27/169
So that's a full 8 points, which could propel Valpo into the top 25. Yeah, that sucks.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 07, 2016, 10:27:29 AMThe Math (Simple Version) – See below for why some numbers may not always match:
25% of team winning percentage
50% of opponents winning percentage (games against your team are excluded in this area only)
25% of opponents' opponents winning percentage
Thus, if your team is 8-2, their winning percentage is .800. Multiply that by 25% and you get .200
If your opponents are all 7-3, their combined record would be 70-30. Subtract 8 losses and 2 wins because you take out results against your team, and that record changes to 68-22, good for a winning percentage of .756. After multiplying this number by 50%, you get .378.
If all of your opponents' opponents are 4-6, this is a total of 400-600 (ten games, ten teams, ten opponents). The winning percentage of these teams is .400, of which you take 25%, good for .100.
In this scenario, .200 + .378 + .100 would give your team an RPI rating of .678.
Notice in this example (and any you could create), that it DOES NOT MATTER which teams your team beats or their opponents beat, only the winning percentages. So, it's not a matter of who you beat for the RPI, just how many. (The who comes into play when you get their winning percentages factored in). Thus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".
Understand that my saying "does not matter which teams" only applies to a team's own schedule (ie: 15-15 is the same winning percentage, regardless of which of their games they win and lose). It ALWAYS matters how good the teams you play are.
The Math (Complicated Version Details):
The formula that the NCAA uses has a few tweaks to it. Over time, research has shown that the home team wins about 70% of the time, so the NCAA chose to adjust their actual formula.
Home Wins: .6 wins
Home Losses: 1.4 losses
Road Wins: 1.4 wins
Road Losses: .6 losses
Neutral site games did not change.
I won't go back through an entire example, but you can see how it would affect a team's record. To the NCAA RPI formula, Valpo has a 8.6-1.8 record thus far (1/7/2016)
Too much time on my hands so I've taken another look at the NCAA adjusted RPI versions.
Our updated VU number now stands at 11.4 wins vs 1.8 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 86.36% as compared to our true % of 78.57 (11 wins divided by 14 games played).
Just for fun Ive added 2 of my favorites who pretty much refuse to play any OOC road games. They are---------
The Butler Bulldogs!!!!! They have an adjusted 10 wins vs 4.4 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 69.44% as compared to their 75% true number (12 wins divided by 16 games played). and-----------
The Irish from ND!!!!!! They have an adjusted 8 wins vs 5 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 61.53% as compared to their 66.6% true number (10 wins divided by 15 games played).
So where am I going with this? Haven't got the foggiest ??? other than to wonder if the resulting adjusted RPI numbers sufficiently reflect and thereby negate advantages garnered by the Power 5's refusal to engage in any form of fair scheduling practices.
How much input were mid majors given in establishment of selection committee criteria or was this something handed down from above?
Quote from: justducky on January 11, 2016, 09:30:12 PMHow much input were mid majors given in establishment of selection committee criteria or was this something handed down from above?
Historically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 11, 2016, 10:06:13 PMHistorically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.
Thats not what I asked but you already know that.
If you would like to make any off the record comments or observations feel free to PM me. I am very curious if you view the process as totally fair and impartial.
Quote from: justducky on January 11, 2016, 11:02:08 PM
Quote from: ValpoHoops on January 11, 2016, 10:06:13 PMHistorically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.
Thats not what I asked but you already know that.
If you would like to make any off the record comments or observations feel free to PM me. I am very curious if you view the process as totally fair and impartial.
Sorry, misread the question you asked.
No, I don't have any idea how much input the mids were given, but I would guess its not much. The NCAA is a big boys club, and they allow us minions to participate, as long as we follow their rules. The power conferences have figured out how to game the RPI, and until the committee actually uses all of the other metrics, they will continue to have that advantage. And, once they do use other metrics, the majors will simply figure out how to game them, too.