Throw out records from the season so far. Throw out expectations of matchups.
UNI is better than its record, and this game will be a major challenge for the Beacons. Kithier and Woodyard may be back, but who else will have tested positive by game time. Who will UNI put on the floor? At least it seems the game will be played.
Those of us in the Chicago media market can watch the game on the NBC sports channel, otherwise ESPN+ will cover the game.
UNI men's basketball showing improvement as MVC play begins
Austin Phyfe's status remains day-to-day
Cole Bair
Jan. 4, 2022 5:11 pm
https://www.thegazette.com/panther-basketball/uni-mens-basketball-showing-improvement-as-mvc-play-begins/
UNI is heavily favored over Valpo. (KenPom has NI as 8-pt favorite with 77% probablity of winning) I just finished an experimental Four Factors Model, tweeked to include some metrics other than the FFs. It's based on the numbers to date of all 358 teams. Independent variable = Win%. Gonna test it on some games for a few days to see if it makes the cut for the NCAA tournament bracket entry.
Interesting that it shows Valpo an ever-so-slight favorite against NI. Athough one of the metrics added had a p-value of way over .05. Just the numbers baby.
It's hard to make predictions anymore since who knows which players from which team will actually be playing. I think we have a chance to win this game but i'm worried that our poor three point defense may hurt us this game. Illinois State got plenty of shots off and we can't keep hoping our opponents miss those.
Matchup Stats:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/matchup/beacons-panthers-2022-01-05/stats
I hope the Beacers have a good time at the Waterloo truck stop
The team flew on a charter yesterday.
Humbleopinion pointed out that UNI is better than their record indicates. I don't know enough about their injury/eligibility situation to say. I do know about ours, however:
0-3 1st 3 games of the season without Ben and Kobe
4-2 next 6 games with Ben, but not Kobe
4-1 last 5 games with Ben and Kobe (our only loss was by 1 point after leading all the way)
I can easily envision a 12-2 record right now instead of 8-6 with a full complement of key players been from the beginning. Of course, we're not 12-2, but I expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.
If we rebound, defend the 3, and have TK back we will be ok.
I'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.
Quote from: Chairback on January 05, 2022, 01:16:44 PM
If we rebound, defend the 3, and have TK back we will be ok.
I'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.
We have rebound and defend the 3 significantly better than the ISU game or we will get blown out of the water. UNI may be the team we match up with worst in the league so we need to have a near flawless game. We also need to peep doing a good job holding onto the ball and keep making our free throws.
I frankly do not expect us to win this game. To really get hyped about this team, we need to win a game here and there than we're not expected to win as well as not lose games you should win. A win tonight would at least to me go a long way to showing me this team is heading in the right direction getting into league play.
Quote from: usc4valpo on January 05, 2022, 10:56:24 AM
I hope the Beacers have a good time at the Waterloo truck stop
Do you drink throughout the day? :cheers:
No, why do you ask? You guys need to lighten up a little. Waterloo, IA is not exactly paradise.
Quote from: Chairback on January 05, 2022, 01:16:44 PMI'm expecting a good game. I'd put Kobe on AJ Green.
Edwards, Gordon, King, Anderson everybody may get a shot! Any chance we will play some zone and if so what will it be?
Quote from: wh on January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PMI expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.
My thoughts exactly. All else being equal Matt must have a plan and a backup plan to keep us in the game with a chance or likelihood of winning. If not the dump Lottich movement will quickly regroup and wh and I might this time be leading it!
To compete for a top 4 seed in the valley, we need to win 3 or 4 road games. Not sure if this is one of them, but I hope it is.
Not a favorable matchup and we have won once in the last 30 years there. UNI lost at home to some very athletic teams, Nicholls State (put up 90 on Purdue). Valpo needs to shore up the interior defense. Look for Panthers to exploit that. Birds missed many bunnies Sunday
A poor start for the Beacons. Doesn't help that Northern Iowa is on fire..
Quote from: wh on January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PMI expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.
Well the 8-6 team showed up tonight.
Any competent coach can shut down the Lottich offense. It's been the same story every year.
Simply unacceptable. Make them take a Greyhound home.
Up to the 6 minute mark of the first half, this is the absolute worst effort and lack of concentration that I have ever seen from a Valpo team. Absolute crap passing, dumb mistakes in traveling or running into a trap without an escape, terrible switches on D, etc. I don't care about missed shots. It is the other BS that has us down 19.
Now we know just how bad we can be and it's everybody.
It's a free for all out there. No game plan at all.
When the announcer says "disjointed" you know it's bad.
AJ Green hasn't even started to light it up yet.
Not even mad about this one. Just numb to Loser Lottich-ball.
We're wearing a trash bag looking uniform and we're playing like trash. Coincidence?
How did this team win 8 games?!?! I wasn't going to jynx it earlier, but with how well we had been with not turning it over combined with UNI not being amazing at takeaways screamed a huge turnover game for Valpo. Who is seriously going to defend Lottich after this game? This team looks beyond unprepared and out of their depth in this one. No excuse!
If I was coaching, I would go into the locker room, say 'what the F*CK was that?' I would then walk out and let them talk to each other. That wasn't Lottich, that was all the players.
We went 20 minutes doing the same thing over and over and over on offense and Defense. Not one change has been made other than subbing different combinations in and out. No game plan. Wow
Typical Lottich. Not skilled enough to make in-game adjustments.
Sadly, I actually really like the gray uniforms. I swear though each time we wear them we play terribly.
Turnovers in the first half: 13! UNI leads in points off turnover 20-2 and points in the paint 22-2! I reasonably expected a loss to UNI on their court, and I guess the score doesn't really matter.
What could a coach do, when EVERYONE on the team, is making bone-headed passes, dribbles/drives, and missing defensive assignments? That is allllll on the players.
Quote from: valpotx on January 05, 2022, 08:54:20 PMWhat could a coach do, when EVERYONE on the team, is making bone-headed passes, dribbles/drives, and missing defensive assignments? That is allllll on the players.
But isn't the disturbing lack of readiness on the part of the players kind of on the coach? He's supposed to have them ready to play on game day and he didn't tonight.
Quote from: valpotx on January 05, 2022, 08:54:20 PMWhat could a coach do, when EVERYONE on the team, is making bone-headed passes, dribbles/drives, and missing defensive assignments? That is allllll on the players.
Veteran players at that.
I'll sending the athletic department a bill for the extra beer I'm drinking tonight.
In trying to think of something positive to say, I can honestly say that this team is very well balanced - they're absolutely terrible in every facet. It's hard to pick whether the offense or defense is more terrible than the other, since both are repugnant.
Did Matt accidentally use the unwrinkled Prairie View game plan by mistake?
Leave it to Lottich to spoil what should be a great day of celebration by gifting us with yet another clunker... Sigh... How much longer is left in this era?
Quote from: mj on January 05, 2022, 08:59:12 PM
Quote from: valpotx on January 05, 2022, 08:54:20 PMWhat could a coach do, when EVERYONE on the team, is making bone-headed passes, dribbles/drives, and missing defensive assignments? That is allllll on the players.
Veteran players at that.
If everyone on the team is playing this bad, it certainly points to ill preparedness by the coach. If the gameplan is going as Lottich drew it up, then he's not recruiting good enough players cause we look completely outmatched against a 5-7 team.
Turned it off 10 minutes in.
Could have done it 5 mins in WH. But Smart choice still.
If players are not showing effort and making bone-headed plays, those things are not on the coach and how he prepared the team. It doesn't work that way. What the players thought and did in the run up to the game, and how they demonstrate effort during the game, is all players. Bad defensive assignments/schemes, bad play-calling, substitutions that don't make sense, that is the coach. None of that is currently tied to our crappy play. It is all just stupid basketball fundamentals by the players.
TX, The players are playing like crap because it's a free-for-all out there. They just winging everything out there.
How many times can you be scored on in the paint over and over and make no adjustments on it.
I don't know about you, but nothing there looks like any form of defensive scheme has been put together for this game. How the hell is UNI getting all these clean drives to the basket? No form of adjustments have been made!!!
As much as I like Krikke, he has played absolute shite defense today. If you go to a zone with how they are shooting, they are making everything. When we go to man, both Krikke and Sheldon just get beat by misdirection dribbling.
We make up for not defending the 3 by not defending the paint.
We made up for stinking it up in the first half by sucking particularly on defense in the second.
I'd like to put some lipstick on this pig and say maybe we saved up all our bad and put it in this game but I'm afraid I can't. Maybe there's a sliver of hope that this will be the low point of the season. We shall see.
Quote from: mj on January 05, 2022, 08:45:37 PM
We're wearing a trash bag looking uniform and we're playing like trash. Coincidence?
The uniforms say Valparaiso. What the hell happened to Valpo. That's our brand.
Embarrassing
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Nice to see Ruedinger get his first collegiate basket. Otherwise this game was horrific. I really hope Lottich doesn't try and blame this loss on injuries/Covid.
This team is not progressing nicely.
I kinda like the uniforms that say "Valparaiso". The script ones we had right at the end of the Peters era were fantastic. Don't think the gray is a good look on us at all though.
Anyway. Lottich himself isn't the one who misses a layup or a defensive assignment, but he's the one who recruits the players who do. He's the one who leads practices with the players who do. He's the one who gameplans with the players who do. He's the one who decides whether players who miss layups and defensive assignments see more playing time.
On one hand, every team has bad nights, and we were a bit short handed. On the other hand, this was a really bad night. We were never in it! I sure don't remember getting absolutely embarrassed like this very often between 2010 and 2016. We weren't expected to win this one, but it feels like forever (the Drake game last season?) since we've gone on the road and gutted out a W in a game we weren't supposed to win. It's real hard to inspire any confidence in players, fans, or recruits until that starts happening.
This keeps up and the transfers will be tranferring again.
All I can say is thank God we finally got Belmont and Murray State on board so that we still have hope of being a multibid conference after Loyola leaves because we sure aren't doing anything ourselves to help make that happen. I wish we could actually pull our weight for once so that we wouldn't have to worry so much about getting outside help to keep the MVC viable in the quest for at large bids but that seems fundamentally impossible under Matt Lottich. If anyone wonders why I focus so much attention on expansion and realignment this is why. I feel no reason to get excited and invest too much time or energy in Valpo basketball itself as long as he remains the coach. He needs to either figure it out fast or we need a change in leadership if we want to preserve the future of the program.
My hope was that this would be an adequate man to man defensive team but I've already scrapped that notion. I know that Matt likes man defense and I suspect that he wanted to save any major zone adjustments until later in the season. However every 4 guard offense on the planet is giving us problems while also preventing Kithier and Krikke from seeing significant floor time together. Every team in this league can give us a good 4 guard look so what do we do and when do we do it?
I'm looking for opinions. Are we quick enough to be a good zone defense team?
Some of you have already stated that us having Ben, Thomas and Kobe on a zone offense together might not hurt despite a shortage of outside shooting threats. Anybody have any follow up comments on that?
Quote from: Just Sayin on January 05, 2022, 10:24:00 PM
This keeps up and the transfers will be tranferring again.
The next game will really show what kind of team we have and possible if Lottich will be coaching next year. If we get blown out again and it appears the players have given up, then I think Lottich is toast.
We didn't look like a team tonight but rather 5 guys on the court who happened to be wearing the same uniform. Maybe it was an off night, it happens. But if this due to a chemistry or locker room issue, then I think we have larger problems.
Quote from: justducky on January 05, 2022, 10:33:12 PMI'm looking for opinions. Are we quick enough to be a good zone defense team?
You might have noticed that we played some zone tonight. It did no better than the man-to-man. Let's hope that this game is not typical of any defense that is implemented. I doubt that any on this board would have guessed that if we kept Green is single digits, we would be beat by twenty-seven.
1314 - I dont care about the multi bids and the MVC. As a single entity, we need to be better than what we are. It is not about the Valley to me, it's about Valpo being successful in basketball, and they have major problems to fix.
Quote from: humbleopinion on January 06, 2022, 05:17:06 AMYou might have noticed that we played some zone tonight. It did no better than the man-to-man
Matt is a man coach who seems to throw in a little zone only to experimentally mix things up. I'm starting to think this bunch might function better primarily as a zone team mixing it up with man. Had Kithier played would it have helped? No. Our man defense might have been even worse if both our bigs had occupied the floor together.
To keep it simple I will not comment on our first half offensive befuddlement ??? (Jacobson 10-- Lottich 0) because defense is the larger problem. If not zone then what is the answer? This looks to be more than just poor fundamentals.
Quote from: usc4valpo on January 06, 2022, 06:26:11 AM
1314 - I dont care about the multi bids and the MVC. As a single entity, we need to be better than what we are. It is not about the Valley to me, it's about Valpo being successful in basketball, and they have major problems to fix.
Agreed. I don't care how many bids the MVC gets if Valpo doesn't realistically have a shot at one of them. If beat downs like last night become the norm I can't get excited about watching more than one Valley team go to the dance.
TeamRankings
Valparaiso Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 6, 2022
• After losing to N Iowa 92-65 yesterday, Valparaiso is now projected to finish the regular season 14-16 (7-11 MVC).
• The odds that the Beacons make the NCAA tournament are 1%, unchanged since yesterday.
• We currently rank Valparaiso as the #203 team in the country, and the #8 team in the MVC.
• Next game: Sat, Jan 8 vs. #148 S Illinois. Our power ratings give the Beacons a 52% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament Get Automatic NCAA Bid Projected Seed
(if Selected)
..........1%.......................................1%................... 15
• Valparaiso almost certainly won't get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, so they need to earn an automatic bid by winning the MVC tournament.
• As for an automatic bid ... Valparaiso has a 1% chance to win the conference tournament. The outlook is bleak, but stranger things have happened.
Regular Season Record Projection
Current Record Projection For Remaining Games Projected Final Record
8-7(1-2 MVC) 6-9(6-9 MVC) 14-16(7-11 MVC)
• The more precise final record expectation for Valparaiso is 13.7 wins and 16.3 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above.
• Based on our projections, the Beacons will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 15-15 and 13-17.
Team Rankings:QuoteNext game: Sat, Jan 8 vs. #148 S Illinois. Our power ratings give the Beacons a 52% chance to win.
Pomeroy:Chance for Valpo to win:
47%Massey:Win Probability Valpo
37%
Eron's vlog of the UNI trip. "Not the outcome we expected," he reports in an understatement. Also, the players express desire for upgrades to the ARC.
Quote from: valpopal on January 06, 2022, 11:14:25 AM
Eron's vlog of the UNI trip. "Not the outcome we expected," he reports in an understatement. Also, the players express desire for upgrades to the ARC.
What time in the video do players discuss desire for ARC upgrades?
Largest increase/decrease in KenPom rankings change after yesterday's games.
Alcorn St. +27
Valpo -19
Northern Iowa +13
So now it's gotten to the point where even the players are complaining about our sub par facilities. Is the administration listening? Is there a plan in place? When will it be enacted? We can't paper over our shortcomings with winning and success anymore. The time for action is now (really it was even before now) We really have to move soon if we don't want to become perpetually mediocre). Upgrade\get new facilities and we probably need a new coach if we want to save the program.
If Valpo has low funds, perhaps the MVC should not focus right now on multiple bids and have schools donate to Valpo for better facilities, which will strength Valpo and the conference to ensure multiple bids in the long term.
Could not watch game last night. Perhaps that was a break. However, being a glutton for punishment I watched the replay concentrating on the defense. Although our on ball defense is fair, our off ball help defense is non existent. If we do help, our next rotation to help is slow or not there resulting in a layup. We generally play tight even on the week side resulting in a wide open middle and a susceptibility to the back door and no opportunity to help. We tend to stand stiff legged and do not move. Do not seem to communicate well. Many other fundamental mistakes. Will a zone help? Not likely as we don't move, communicate, or above all rotate. When I have seen our zones, we generally have a weak rebounding position because of lack of rotation.
Yes, the players make mistakes. What you do and are taught in practice will be reflected on the floor. Judging from our performance I question what teaching is going on. That being said a road trip to Northern Iowa has always been tough for Valpo. I have no use for any comments regarding Valpo facilities as the fundamentals we need could be developed in the worst YMCA gymnasium.
Quote from: wh on January 05, 2022, 01:03:56 PM
Humbleopinion pointed out that UNI is better than their record indicates. I don't know enough about their injury/eligibility situation to say. I do know about ours, however:
0-3 1st 3 games of the season without Ben and Kobe
4-2 next 6 games with Ben, but not Kobe
4-1 last 5 games with Ben and Kobe (our only loss was by 1 point after leading all the way)
I can easily envision a 12-2 record right now instead of 8-6 with a full complement of key players been from the beginning. Of course, we're not 12-2, but I expect a 12-2 favored-to-win type performance tonight, not an 8-6 gee I hope we can stay with them, little engine that couldn't persona.
After giving it considerable thought, I believe that the team failed to live up to my expectations last night. :)
Quote from: Old Timer on January 06, 2022, 02:07:07 PMour off ball help defense is non existent. If we do help, our next rotation to help is slow or not there resulting in a layup. We generally play tight even on the week side resulting in a wide open middle and a susceptibility to the back door and no opportunity to help. We tend to stand stiff legged and do not move. Do not seem to communicate well. Many other fundamental mistakes. Will a zone help? Not likely as we don't move, communicate, or above all rotate. When I have seen our zones, we generally have a weak rebounding position because of lack of rotation.
Got it! We can't play zone because we can't play man and we can't play man because it requires movement, communication and coaching. So we are stuck until an effort is made to get us unstuck. I'm looking for simple answers so when should we get out and push? ;)
Man, I fell asleep early last night and dreamed we got curb stomped in the backwoods of Iowa. Whew! Anyway, what time is the game tongiht?
If they win, we are more likely to get donors to upgrade Facilities, so I view that as on the players, as well :)