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And so, our loss at Missouri "helps" us because they also lost to Kentucky (and nearly everyone else in the SEC).  And all this time we've been upset by it.   

No.

No, indeed. Missouri losing hurts our RPI far more than the win their opponents pick up.

Our opponents have played about 900 games. Our opponents' opponents have played about 27,000. Plus, part 2 of the RPI is worth twice as much, which means every Missouri loss hurts part 2 about 60 times as much as it helps part 3.

So, instead of saying "this will be a good win for our RPI" we should be saying "this will be a good game for our RPI". Is that a safe to say?

That would be correct. The strength of schedule bump for playing a fictional game against Kentucky tonight would show up win or lose, while the SOS drop from playing 2-27 Grambling would hurt either way.

Notice in this example (and any you could create), that it DOES NOT MATTER which teams your team beats or their opponents beat, only the winning percentages. So, it's not a matter of who you beat for the RPI, just how many. (The who comes into play when you get their winning percentages factored in). Thus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".

If we beat Auburn early in the year and Auburn beats a 30-0 Kentucky team, that's 30 more wins and only 1 loss that goes into the opponents-opponents equation. You're saying that's "not a win that really helps our RPI" as compared to beating a 30 loss Maine team?

That's exactly what I'm saying. Had we played Auburn, those 30 wins still show up on our opponents record, so it doesn't matter whether we had beaten them or not.

Yes, exchanging Auburn for Maine would help, but part of who you play, but not who you beat. You're confusing two similar statements.

It doesn't matter who you beat = your winning percentage is the same, no matter which of the teams on your schedule you beat and lose to (home/road games obviously affect this, but pretend it doesn't). Do not confuse this with the next one.

It doesn't matter who you play = your winning percentage is the same regardless of who you play if your record is the same...the teams you play WILL ALWAYS affect parts 2 and 3 of the formula. Thus, this is not an accurate statement.

We need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.

Don't really think you can root for Auburn either.  If they would somehow win the tournament it would be hard to place them as a 13 seed or lower.

In 2008, Georgia finished with a 17-16 record after winning the SEC Tournament. You may recall that they had to win two games on Sunday after a tornado hit the Georgia Dome late Saturday night. They were given a 14 seed.

Auburn would be 17-19, and would have a similar SEC record (4-14, UGA in 2008 was 4-12). I believe they would be seeded similarly.

I also believe it won't matter because Kentucky isn't going to lose to Auburn.

[Quick RPI Tutorial]

Quick RPI Tutorial

The RPI is a tool that the NCAA Selection Committee uses to determine at-large bids and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. It is not the only tool they use, and many believe that it is being used less and less as years pass and more analytics are available.

It is a measure that is based simply on winning percentages of your team, your team's opponents and your team's opponents' opponents. The last two of these is where the strength of schedule is calculated.

Only games against Division 1 teams are included in the calculations.


The Math (Simple Version) – See below for why some numbers may not always match:
25% of team winning percentage
50% of opponents winning percentage (games against your team are excluded in this area only)
25% of opponents' opponents winning percentage

Thus, if your team is 8-2, their winning percentage is .800. Multiply that by 25% and you get .200

If your opponents are all 7-3, their combined record would be 70-30. Subtract 8 losses and 2 wins because you take out results against your team, and that record changes to 68-22, good for a winning percentage of .756. After multiplying this number by 50%, you get .378.

If all of your opponents' opponents are 4-6, this is a total of 400-600 (ten games, ten teams, ten opponents). The winning percentage of these teams is .400, of which you take 25%, good for .100.

In this scenario, .200 + .378 + .100 would give your team an RPI rating of .678.

Notice in this example (and any you could create), that it DOES NOT MATTER which teams your team beats or their opponents beat, only the winning percentages. So, it's not a matter of who you beat for the RPI, just how many. (The who comes into play when you get their winning percentages factored in). Thus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".

Understand that my saying "does not matter which teams" only applies to their own schedule (ie: 15-15 is the same winning percentage, regardless of which of their games they win and lose). It ALWAYS matters how good the teams you play are.


The Math (Complicated Version Details):
The formula that the NCAA uses has a few tweaks to it. Over time, research has shown that the home team wins about 70% of the time, so the NCAA chose to adjust their actual formula.

Home Wins: .6 wins
Home Losses: 1.4 losses

Road Wins: 1.4 wins
Road Losses: .6 losses

Neutral site games did not change.

I won't go back through an entire example, but you can see how it would affect a team's record. To the NCAA RPI formula, Valpo has a 23.4-3.8 record this season.

Edit: Added phrase in bold type

Looks like cheer against Purdue, Rhode Island, and U Conn.    Those would be bad surprises and big upsets.   Right?   

Otherwise it seems pretty like we are slotted for better or for worse.

Am I reading this right?    Seems unlikely any of the 3 teams above win.

Wrong. Those games actually shouldn't affect us a lot. If the teams you listed win, their respective RPI's will likely be ahead of ours, and the other teams in their leagues are ahead of us to begin with, thus their auto-bid team will slot in ahead of us on the seed list.

Bubble teams DO NOT AFFECT our seeding...they are not part of the "bracket fillers" that fill in the bottom of the seed list. We need as many teams to be in the "bracket fillers" group as possible...which will put more teams below us. We are not in competition for seeding with bubble teams.


We need to root for teams like Wyoming, Montana, Sam Houston State, Auburn and anyone from the Sun Belt not named Georgia State.

A small update to the spreadsheet today. I will update a few times throughout the day as bids are clinched and semi-final games are played.

I think this should help clear up some of the rooting interest thoughts.

Interesting tidbit from the SWAC: There will be a title game played Saturday night but Texas Southern has already clinched the automatic bid because both teams from the other semi-final (Alabama State and Southern) are ineligible for post-season play. So, the Texas Southern/Prairie View semi-final was the de facto title game.

Top Seeds to lose Friday: Louisiana Tech (CUSA), Virginia (ACC), NC Central (MEAC), Montana (Big Sky), UC-Davis (Big West).


Note 1: Teams remaining is simply sorted by seed, not by RPI.
Note 2: All times listed are CENTRAL

We played Butler three times in 2011-2012. The only current player on the roster then was, indeed, Vashil. He did not, however, see any playing time in the three games.

Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them

Except GA State?

Ah, you got me. I have the wrong dates for their semi and final on my spreadsheet.

"All #1 SEEDS PLAY TODAY (or possibly tomorroe)"

No table update today. But, not a lot of RPI movement last night.

Today, EVERY SINGLE #1 SEED THAT REMAINS PLAYS. All of them.

So, quite possibly a lot of movement for tomorrow.

Are you asking these teams to have an upset in their conference tournament first or second round, or are you rooting for these teams to actually win their conference tournament? 

He's just giving a best-case, perfect-world idea of what he would like to see happen if every single game went the way we would want. We all know it won't, but a guy can hope...

One more ticket punched last night, in the Patriot League, where 4th-seeded Lafayette got the win.

No Championship games now until Saturday, but a lot of #1 seeds will get their tournaments under way today and tomorrow, so there could be a lot of movement.

I know. That's why i specified "at" when using the YSU example. I'm going to write a short "RPI Tutorial" tomorrow. At this point, I'm trying to be simple and show the raw numbers. Too many people fall into the "good win for our RPI" trap. Baby steps...

One less loss against anyone would have had the same effect. Who you beat means nothing.

If we had 20 wins against the "best" 20 teams on our schedule and 10 losses to the "worst", we would have the exact same RPI as if the 20 wins were against the "worst" teams.

It's solely based on winning percentage, not who you beat.

UTAH STATE (Mountain West Conference)- Stew Morrill announced his retirement at the end of the season (17 seasons; 18-11 this year, 411-160 at Utah State).

The eyeball test would suggest that this gentleman might not have been fired but maybe 18- 11 was far below their expectations.

He announced very early in the season that this would be his last. He had "Homer" type tenure there. He would have had to do something inappropriate to get fired.

Thanks Hoops. Now, the second part of my question. If we were sitting with a 46 instead of a 53, might we be looking at a better seed or more favorable location or matchup? Just curious as to how costly that loss that we all blew off as basically meaningless because we thereafter beat CSU might in fact have meaning now?

It's possible that it could slide us down a spot or two on the seed list, but I don't think we had any realistic chance at an 11 seed anyways. Perhaps we would have been most solidly feeling like a 12, but maybe not. We won't know for sure until we see how the bracket is put together on Sunday and see who the other 12's and 13's are.

Can one of our knowledgeable RPI/bracket  experts tell us what the Detroit loss cost us in RPI and potential seeding?  Would we have been a solid 12, or even possibly an 11?

Keep in mind when thinking about questions like this one: the RPI is based solely on winning percentages. It doesn't matter WHO you win or lose to, just HOW MANY you win or lose.

Our RPI would be EXACTLY the same had we won at Detroit but had lost at Youngstown State. So, had we won against Detroit but lost to CSU our RPI would only be a tiny bit different because we played Cleveland State a third time and their win would have factored in to our Opponents Record.


So, to do the math:

RPI uses 25% of your winning percentage (against D1 opponents):

25-5 = .8333 x .25 = .2083
26-4 = .8667 x .25 = .2167

A difference of .0084

Using CBS Sports RPI numbers, we would move from 53 to 46.

Note: There would also be a TINY negative into our Opponents' Winning Percentage (RPI uses 50% of this number) due to Detroit losing an extra game and having one fewer win, but I didn't figure that in

That was the loudest I have ever heard the ARC, even going back to the days when I was on campus.

I think the Marquette game in 2006 was louder at times. But it was nowhere near the constant noise level of last night. Last night was, without a doubt, the longest the place has been going crazy like it was that I've seen.

BTW, who were the announcers?

Bob Wischusen had the play-by-play (he did the 2013 HL Championship Game, then a few friends and I went out for drinks with him). Bob is the radio voice of the New York Jets and does the Saturday Showcase Big Ten game with Dan Dakich, in addition to a lot of other ESPN work.

Jim Calhoun (former Connecticut coach) had the analysis.

Well, turns out I'm not a curse this year.

Four tickets punched last night, none of which should have a significant impact on our seeding.

Tonight, one more bid - from the Patriot League - that should have little effect on our spot. After this, nothing new until Saturday.


Teams to root against in conference tournaments:

MAC: Buffalo (30), Central Michigan (75), Toledo (77)
C-USA: Old Dominion (37), Louisiana Tech (52), UTEP (73)
Big West: UC-Davis (64)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (44)
Mountain West: Colorado State (26), San Diego State (28), Boise State (40)
Sun Belt: Georgia State (70)

And, when in doubt, cheer for the team in the dark jersey.


Based on strictly RPI, if all tournaments ended with the highest SEEDED team (not necessarily the highest RPI team) winning, we would be the "best" 13 seed.

2. Gonzaga to win. They play BYU who might be a bubble team, but if the win they will have a seed ahead of us for sure at an RPI of 43. Gonzaga is already in, let's keep them in.

This game won't matter. Either Gonzaga wins and BYU falls into the cesspool or bubble teams, or BYU wins and knocks a bubble team out of the tournament. The only games that matter are ones that could put a team behind us.

Well, here we go...only one game with a strong rooting interest tonight, and I think most of us will be there...

Three tickets punched last night. The Horizon Champ nearly caught a big break with Furman, but alas, Wofford hung on. Manhattan did knock off Iona, so that will help the HL team, and Northeastern kept William & Mary (one of five "original" D1 teams to never go dancing - there were 160 - out of the NCAA Tournament).

[The others are Army, The Citadel, Northwestern and St. Francis (NY). St. Francis has the opportunity to get themselves off of that list tonight.]

NCAA must only update when there are "major" conferences playing games, so these numbers are a day old...most should be close.

Three clinched bids yesterday with North Florida, Coastal Carolina and Northern Iowa.

Three more tickets punched today. The Colonial shouldn't matter much, but definitely root for Manhattan in the MAAC (vs. Iona) and Furman in the SoCon (vs. Wofford).

In some semi-final games, root for Portland (vs. BYU) and Pepperdine (vs. Gonzaga) in the WCC (unlikely, but still a rooting interest).

For Tuesday...screw the rest, GO VALPO!

Waited today until NCAA RPI updated. Just sticking with this because its the "official" one.

[and a high number of Green Bay fans left.]

3600 was pretty close to actual butts in seats during the second game. There were a lot of seats in the upper corners that were open, and a high number of Green Bay fans left.

Keep in mind, that while "capacity" at the ARC is over 5000, there are only about 4500 actual ticketed seats (not including student sections). I used to know the exact number, but I can't recall what it is...

What difference would that make whether they were there or not?  Everyone who bought a ticket paid for both games.  Or, are you saying that the 3600 number is a guesstimate based on how full the place looked rather than an actual ticket count?

I think 3600 was about how many butts were in the seats. That's what the place looked like to me. I don't know how they arrived at their count for the games...whether they took actual tickets or did what they do during the regular season and guess. I suppose it doesn't really matter to me how many tickets were sold, I was disappointed that there were so many empty seats.

3600 was pretty close to actual butts in seats during the second game. There were a lot of seats in the upper corners that were open, and a high number of Green Bay fans left.

Keep in mind, that while "capacity" at the ARC is over 5000, there are only about 4500 actual ticketed seats (not including student sections). I used to know the exact number, but I can't recall what it is...