Messages

[ISN'T]

Guys the MVC is very good. The top of the league is comparable to the big east and really the top 3 would probably do alright in any of the Power 7s. Hell Wichita would probably be picked to win any thing but the B1G, B12 and ACC and Northern Iowa stands a chance of getting an at large. If Green Bay or CSU got an at large (CSU ISN'T getting an at large after losing to Savannah St.) I'd die of shock. Their mid-level is very comparable to our mid-level. Evansville, Indiana St. and Missouri (Don't call them Mizzou) St are all on the same level as Wright St. and Valpo. Their bottom tier is better than our bottom tier, but if we did a Big 10-ACC style challenge their bottom would beat our bottom when at home while we'd win ours while at home. If you take out Wichita for this challenge here's how it'd break down:

MVC	KenPom	Horizon	KenPom	Result
Northern Iowa	63	Green Bay	83	UNI Both
Illinois St.	94	Cleveland St.	99	Split
Evansville	122	Detroit	139	Evansville Both
Indiana St.	144	Wright St.	152	Split
Missouri St.	157	Valparaiso	155	Split
Southern Illinois	171	Oakland	209	SIU Both
Loyola Chicago	178	Milwaukee	213	LU-C Both
Bradley	257	Youngstown St.	240	YSU Both
Drake	272	Illinois Chicago	284	Split

This would lead to an 11-7 MVC win and this is leaving out the fact that Wichita would trounce every team and if you slide every team down a slot then you've got trouble. The MVC is a head better than us, but it's not like we're the Summit or SWAC. We're still a top 5 mid major conference and should our 1 seed win the conference each year we'll get a 12-13 seed in the dance.

Wow...is it just me or did the HL have a crappy first week?

The average KenPom of the HL's losses was 124 while the wins were 265. Not great, but when you look at who played the schools who were in the 75-150 range (winable games) WSU won vs. Belmont. and the only other game you'd expect to win was us vs. Mizzou. YSU, and UIC aren't top tier teams so they'll almost always lose those games, and Oakland and WSU are mid-level teams.  Not to give away my whole answer, because I'm going to use this in the mailbag, this week went about how you'd expect it.

I prefer to use KenPom for my evaluation especially this early in the season. Seems to have the best available data on the limited number of games (Also I have the subscription for it)

Valpo               #155

Drake               #272
Murray State     #79
Portland           #117

Drake is one of the few teams in country with less experience than us with 1.19 years (We have 1.35, remember when we were #1 in the country with 2.73 yrs with Rowdy and Co.? We will soon get back to that with Alec and Co.)

Senior Chris Caird is their "go-to guy" when they have the ball, he uses the possession (ie: he shoots with no off. rebound or has a turnover) nearly 30% of the time. He plays a little like Rowdy did, shooting 15 threes and 13 twos (he averages 13.3 ppg). The other guy we need to watch out for is Reed Timmer, through 3 games he's almost an identical player to Tevonn. I see Keith guarding him more because they have 2 other guards who start and they would be better assignments for the Tevonn. They also have a Vashil, a 7 foot project player named Jacob Enevold Jensen. Should be interesting to see how Vashil does against another "real" big.  He didn't look good Rosburg at Mizzou, but the team didn't look good there.

We should be able to beat Drake, but I don't know if it's the drubbing everyone thinks it will be. KenPom gives us a 73%   chance of winning with the spread at 5 points.

Here is our weekly recap for this week plus the first 2 days of the season. http://www.midmajormadness.com/horizon-league/2014/11/23/7269415/horizon-league-basketball-weekly-recap

Also I'm looking for questions for our mailbag. Feel free to ask here or on Twitter with the hashtag of #HLMailbag

First time ever listening to Todd for a full game on the radio broadcast. I don't know if he's a part of this message board or not, but if he is I would like to give out one recommendation. There are times all I hear is last name after last name, with no real description to where he is at. I know at times the game moves too fast, as I have done two full basketball seasons on the radio before, but small things like saying "right wing" or "right corner" would be appreciated. Besides that, love the voice and the passion!

You'll find him posting as "chef" and I think he's pretty under rated as a PbP. I listen to him whenever there's a road game (usually from my computer which is why I can never remember what app streams the games)

Rumors of Vashil's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

When they aren't playing Skeeter and Porkchop I'll buy it.

It was $hit not Fvck.

Nickerson should be first man off the bench. I wouldn't mind if he got just as many minutes as the Walker brothers, and probably comparable to Jubril.

1. Nickerson
2. Skara
3. Joseph
4. Vashil

Ok so Vashil should be the 4th guy off the bench. How's that? While I think Joseph helps us out about the same as Vashil (read I don't think he's that good, man I miss Lexus, holy crap this team with Lexus.) The Walkers and Carter in my plan maintain the 1-3 positions and while we could go "big" with Nickerson, Skara and Peters (Or Jubril in one of those spots) I'm not sure how often in our league you want to do that. There's some small and shifty 3s and I don't think I trust Skara implicitly yet. You'll notice 2 players who NEVER see the light of day in my plans either way. Let's keep it that way.

Ah...What about the most athletic guy on the team??   

Nickerson.

Ok. Well  Let me recalculate this.

Skara at the 3, Peters at the 4, and Jubril at the 5.  This team will be in desperate need of inside scoring to open up the floor.  Peters and Jubril are more of a scoring threat down low than Vashil.  Jubril will eventually start making those bunnies around the rim (hopefully).

I thought about this, but I actually switched D. Walker for Skara. As nice a guy as Vashil is he's not a starter on a Horizon League winning team. He's great to have off the bench in limited time when you need defense, but at no point should he have more minutes than Skara or the Walkers.

Right now I'm thinking the rotations should be
1. Carter, T. Walker, D. Walker, Peters, Jubril (First 10 or so)
2. Carter, Joesph, Skara, Peters, Vashil (Next 5)
3. Joseph, T. Walker, D. Walker, Skara, Jubril (Final 5)

Then for the second half run out 2 to start the half for 7 minutes, run 3 out there for 7 minutes and then run 1 out for the final 6.  I know foul trouble and potential in game nicks can't be accounted for, but I think would maximize our best line up (in my opinion) and lead to these minute loads:
Carter: 28
D. Walker: 28
Jubril: 28
Peters: 28
T. Walker: 28
Joseph: 24
Skara: 24
Vashil: 12

I don't know how feasible this is, but I kind of like it. Playing Peters and Carter 15 minutes to start the game might be a little rough on them and having the Walkers and Jubril close the final 13 minutes might also not work.

...isn't Doyel kind of a jerk?  Asking for a friend.

Oh he's got some jerk in his editorials but his reporting is usually top notch.

I don't trust that Kyle guy. He writes like he doesn't watch the games and is drunk half the time.

Oh it's a recruit. Ignore the other Kyle guy.

Doyel was a big get for the Indy Star and he's pretty connected. That's one report I'd trust.

So far UWM has looked pretty lifeless and I don't know how much of it is their post season suspension and how much of it is missing someone who could knock down an open shot. Who would have guessed they would miss Aaron this much?

Yeah I had thought about going up to these games too. 8:30 is just way too early for me to try to get there.

I did see something in the story where Comcast Sportsnet Chicago will probably have any of the games involving UIC, maybe Valpo, and other select games, based on contractual agreements with other conferences for broadcasting their teams.

Let's see how likely this is with the Bears/Bulls/Blackhawks schedules

Dec. 14   Miami (Ohio) at Wright State          4:30 p.m.
Bulls play on WGN at 4 PM. Blackhawks play on Comcast at 7 PM. They also do Bears post games on CSN. Highly unlikely that CSN airs this game.

Dec. 17   Morehead State at Green Bay          7 p.m.
No Bulls or Blackhawks games. I could see CSN picking up this game.

Jan. 4      Milwaukee at Detroit                     noon
Blackhawks play 7 PM on WGN. No Bulls game. I could see CSN picking this game up.

Jan. 20     UIC at Green Bay                       7 p.m.
Blackhawks play on CSN at 7 PM. No Bulls game No chance, but they might use the CSN+ channel to air it since it's UIC. They had UIC/WIU on Monday night.

Jan. 31     Valparaiso at UIC                     2 p.m.
Blackhawks play on CSN at 9:30. No Bulls game. If this isn't picked up by CSN I'll be shocked.

Feb. 1       Oakland at Youngstown State      11:30 a.m.
No Chicago teams play. It's Super Bowl Sunday so I have no idea what CSN is going to do. I can see them picking it up for some cheap programming.
   
Feb. 2       Green Bay at Wright State           7 p.m.
No Chicago teams again. Could be a battle of top 2 HL teams? I could see a pick up here.

Feb. 8       Oakland at Valparaiso               2:30 p.m.
Blackhawks game at 11:30 on NBC. Bulls game at 5 PM on WGN. Does CSN pick up something to run against the 3rd period of the Hawks game on a sister channel? I'm pretty sure they don't do post games on CSN for NBC games during the regular season. Could be picked up.

Feb. 15      UIC at Cleveland State                2 p.m.
Blackhawks play at 11:30 on NBC (again). No Bulls game. Probably picked up for the Chicago team.

Feb. 22      Cleveland State at Milwaukee       2 p.m.
Another Blackhawks game again on NBC (When you play St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Boston on 3 straight Sundays you have the schedule made to be aired nationally). No Bulls. I can see it being picked up.

Harley's Last Name  27
Snake Bit Valpo       25

The North Carolina school will run a play called "Hornets" and win it on the last play off the game.

That one stings...

They are very obviously a new network. It looks like it's not going to be on my Comcast subscription, but we'll see. From what I can tell they don't actually have a channel but they have affiliates who will air their sporting events. Anyway, the two Valpo games should be easy for locals to get to and watch as UIC is a Saturday afternoon and Oakland is a home game. It will be nice to watch some of the other conference teams, especially the Miami (OH)-WSU game and MSU-UWGB game. Hopefully they will have those on TV in our area soon.

Bethel's Clay Yeo Earns Crossroads League Player of the Week

Looks like he's doing well as the big fish. Also when did valpopal start doing graphics for other schools?

I don't think we should be supporting something as terrible as ecstasy. I'm opposed to this thread and think it should be locked immediately before we start rumors of a drug culture at our fair university.

You know what's great. If we want to make the NCAA tournament, we don't have to beat a single BCS school! Also last year we beat Central Florida and last I checked the American Conference is a "Group of 5" conference.

Back to this game, it would be nice if Jubril or Vashil were studs like Alec, but we can't have 5 guys on the court who will light up the stat sheet every night. If they fill certain roles the team will be successful.

• Vashil needs to be on the court about 25 minutes a night and be a rim protector. Grab 6-7 rebounds, don't let guards have uncontested lay ups, and if you grab an offensive rebound go back up with it quickly and get an easy 2 points. The most frustrating part of his game for me is whenever he has the ball he brings it down to his chest or lower and then tries to go back up with it. That's a recipe for disaster especially when you don't have the best hands or the strongest frame. I know he's still "new" to basketball, but it's been 3 years, the coaches should have beaten that out of him by now.
• We saw flashes of what Jubril gives us. He's a solid ball handler and can get to the rim off the drive. At 6'7" or 6'8" (I think its more like 6'7", but you know how SIDs are with height) he's going to be able to frequently beat his man off the dribble. Now he needs to finish. As has been stated he's killing us by missing these bunnies, but that might be early season rust or jitters. I fully expect him to be draining those by December.

I still don't know what to expect from Keith, and frankly I fear he might be in a 2013 Dority situation, playing point when he's a more natural 2 guard. I don't know if Tevonn can take over the point or if we'd be better off with Darien or Max at the point, it's really too early for me to make any full assessment of who should be playing the point. I think Keith will be the answer at the end of the season, or I hope he will, but right now we're missing Lexus. He was a floor general and really had the offense rolling. On Friday every offensive possession went through Alec, which makes sense as the star of our team, but there's times when you need your PG to take over, get a pick and roll or motion set running and have your star act as more decoy for 2-3 minutes. Right now Keith has 7 assists to 2 TOs in 54 minutes. His first 60 minutes last year saw him have 9 assists to 7 turnovers so there's some improvement. I'm a little concerned about the scoring, but his defense is nothing to sneer at.

I was hoping they would pull it out.  Even in the post game Coach Gore said "I hope they win it".  Now we're going to get an angry Mizzou and that's not going to be fun.

This Walker Bros. thing might catch on.

One thing I know, our walkers have wheels!

You should really return those to the chairback section... C'mon its rude to steal from them when they can't chase you.

Interesting observation from the article:

"During his one season at Valpo, Yeo's mind was so cluttered with questions —  Why didn't he play more? Could he play at that level? Should he transfer? —  that it clouded his ability to play with an all-important free mind. Not now. These days, there are no worries."

It appears there was a self-questioning confidence thing going as well as discomfort/impatience about having to wait, improveg and adjust to D-I BB.  He very well might have grown to be the shooter he is at Bethel, but in D-I that would have to have evolved.  At Bethel he's back right away to being the big fish in a much smaller pond. That's fine for him.

Man I hope he does well at Bethel, but after that Oakland game I saw big things coming for him. He absolutely shut down Bader and he was about as clutch as Robert Horry with his shots.

Bovada has an 8.5 point spread, let's put a $1 on it.