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Let's win this thing and get the 16 seed we deserve, you know because Alec is out. NCAA institution is great! (heavy sarcasm)

An 11 or 12 seed? I want what you're having!

RPI as of this morning:

62 62 Vanderbilt 0.5697 9-11 SEC 2 0.6256 222 0.4022 6-6 69 2
63 63 Valparaiso 0.5687 15-4 Horz 148 0.5034 39 0.7647 9-3 53 101

Would love to settle this on the court!

Both return their head coaches. St. Mary's returns it's top 8 scorers (sounds like us from a year ago). FSU has a top 10 recruiting class coming in. Rankings seem justified, maybe even low.

These will help(teams involving last 4 byes,last 4 in,first four out,etc.):

3/10 Games
Need Florida to lose to Arkansas
Need Michigan to lost to Northwestern
Need GW to lose to St. Louis

3/11 Games
Need UConn to lose to Cincy
Need Tulsa to lose to Memphis

I think that if all the stars align it will come down to St. Mary's/Monmouth/Wichita/Valpo for one of the last spots

Getting some love from Kellogg and Davis on the CBS post MVC championship show (or whatever it is called).

But we also lose a top 100 win as Belmont falls to 101.

Per which site?

WarrenNolan had them hanging in the top 100 after the loss yesterday.

And has them at 96 currently.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

101 this morning.

NCAA has them at 94

Down go the Shockers! Doesn't help the bubble but if we get in it helps our seed!

[Valparaiso 0.5857 43 0.5860 42]

                        before    the ISU final   after

South Dakota State  0.5873  40         0.5870  40
Tulsa                         0.5864  41         0.5867  41
Providence                 0.5860  42         0.5860  43
Valparaiso               0.5857  43         0.5860  42
Virginia Common     0.5850  44         0.5850  44

Thank you Sycamores

But we also lose a top 100 win as Belmont falls to 101.

Taking the pessimistic view (just for the moment and for discussion sake only), IF we were to lose in the HLT, which loss would be more devastating to any post season stuff: semi or final?

Semi loss, no question. From an RPI standpoint and also from a talking head standpoint: "Valpo couldn't even make it to the weak Horizon league title game".

Valpo is back on the Bubble Watch this week:

Valparaiso [26-5 (16-2), RPI: 42, SOS: 186] Let's throw the Crusaders back on here, if only because there's a chance that their road win at Oregon State -- which, hey, is a top-30 RPI victory! -- will start to look even better before Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, Bryce Drew's team did finish the regular season with a 16-2 record against the Horizon League, the same tally Wichita State racked up in the Missouri Valley Conference. No one here is arguing that Valpo is actually better than the Shockers, and the Horizon is at least a notch behind the Valley in terms of overall league strength. But the same principle applies: This is a really good team that was banged up in nonconference play and -- in the Watch's humble opinion -- probably deserves to be in the tournament at the end of the day. We'll see.

It's not any consolation, but none of the other mid-majors (aside from Wichita State obviously) in their consideration for an at-large have both a lower RPI and SOS than Valpo. Arkansas-Little Rock's RPI is 38, and with their weak conference, I'm pretty sure two decent HL tournament wins would propel us above them (not that RPI is the only indicator of course).

2 more wins and it won't matter, we will get the Horizon auto bid.

http://www.todaysu.com/around-the-u/mid-major-large-resume-evaluation/

They list Valpo and Monmouth as the only candidates getting in. (out of Little-Rock, San Diego St. Chattanooga, Stony Brook and UNC Wilmington. 

VALPARAISO

Conference: Horizon
Record: 23-5
RPI/BPI/KenPom: 65/37/26

If you hate RPI, take a gander at Valparaiso. The Horizon League-leading Crusaders don't have the strongest RPI of the teams examined here, but their KenPom ranking dictates inclusion in the Field of 68 barring a catastrophic collapse in the coming weeks.

The Crusaders scored a road win over Oregon State in December, which stands as one of the most impressive victories among the teams examined here. Valpo also dominated Oakland away from home and bested them 86-84 at Athletics-Recreation Center. Included in the Crusaders' five losses is a six-point decision against Pac-12 leading Oregon.

The only real knock against Valpo as an at-large team is losing twice to Wright State. The Raiders are hanging around in the Horizon League, but check in at a luke-warm 159 in RPI. They're one spot behind Ball State, which upset Valpo in non-conference play.

Nevertheless, if the committee is looking to reward mid-major conference regular-season champions that played challenging non-conference schedules, and have a proven ability to hang with Tournament competition, Valparaiso is one of the best options.

Death to the RPI; Crusaders get the nod.

Verdict: IN

RPI is 43 now!

Should coach of the year go to the coach of the best team, or the coach who did the best job with what he had? Bryce did a great job this year, but WSU was 3-13 in the league last year and turned it around to 13-5. I think Billy Donlan should be coach of the year.

Agree it might go to Donlan. I looked at predicted finish at start of the year and WSU was 5th, ended up tied for 2nd. Obviously we were predicted to win and did. Bryce won last year so more reason for the press to go Donlan.

Or if we played any besides Chicago St. We have to play UIC.  Chicago St. was by choice.

I've debated this myself. I think that this game added little value this year. Hurt our RPI and probably didn't help the team grow but no real way to measure this.

However, I think it would be hypocritical for Valpo not to schedule Chicago St. We as fans want Valpo to play Northwestern, DePaul, Notre Dame, other local D1 teams, etc. If we turndown Chicago St. we are doing the same thing these bigger schools are doing to us. Although it hurts our RPI I think it is the right thing to do.

We are now ranked #1 in the College Court Report Mid-Major rankings. Is it possible--possible--that our at-large hopes still have a pulse?

Paul

Right now - maybe. For Valpo to be in the at-large grouping, we have to lose another game. Once we lose one more there is no at-large hope.


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Hit the nail on the head!

The line for this game has been all over. Opened at Valpo -8.5 and has gone all the way up to 10 and now it's back down to Valpo -9. All of which seems high. But... to be fair, we have either won by double digits or lost in conference play so maybe they aren't crazy? I don't know.

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Fluctuation is due to betting. Line opens at -8.5 and more bets are being placed on Valpo so the line goes up to -10. Betting shifts to Oakland and line moves down to -9. I am most interested in opening lines as they are more predictive of how Vegas things the game with turn out.

Davidson needs to be more original celebrating Peter's 3, straight up copy cat of Monmouth.

Interesting to see how some of us return faster than others from the sky is falling mentality following the Wright State loss.

I am not one of those. The team I watched last night did not look like a team that is going to win out. Defense led as usual, holding any opponent to 43 points is down right impressive. Unfortunately the offense especially in the first half was awful. Continue to play like that and they will lose a game or two more.

I still think they will be a top 2 seed in the tournament and win the horizon tournament but I am watching the rpi less than I did before.

Winning 86-63 would have put you more at ease?

If we continue to hold teams to 17 points in a half, our offense can be as awful as it wants. I guess winning with defense isn't all that sexy to some people, but I'm surprised that after 2 years of having a top 10 defense nationally, there's still doubts about winning games in that manner.

Scoring more points would have put me more at ease. Cleveland St has one of the worse offenses in D1, 337 out of 351 according to KenPom. They were not going to score many points, although holding them under 20 in a half was impressive.

Interesting to see how some of us return faster than others from the sky is falling mentality following the Wright State loss.

I am not one of those. The team I watched last night did not look like a team that is going to win out. Defense led as usual, holding any opponent to 43 points is down right impressive. Unfortunately the offense especially in the first half was awful. Continue to play like that and they will lose a game or two more.

I still think they will be a top 2 seed in the tournament and win the horizon tournament but I am watching the rpi less than I did before.

losing to a team that lost to UIC

13 seed if they win the tournament

With a win we will clinch the double bye for the HL Tourney. If Green Bay also wins Saturday we'll have clinched the 1 seed, which is now meaningless, thanks to "Motor City Madness". Well I guess not completely meaningless, we'll have that autobid to the NIT locked up.

12 wins locks up one of the top 2 seeds? Seems a bit low.

Oregon now #1 in RPI.

Think about this for a second. We took the number 1 team in RPI to the wire, at their house!

I am more worried about a good defensive team in the tournament than a good offensive one. Our D has shown up 95% of the time but our offense has been lethargic at times. Teams like Louisville concern me, well not anymore...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

"Valparaiso is among the nation's best mid-major teams, starring one of the best players (forward Alec Peters) in any league anywhere. Chattanooga is 22-3 with a win at -- this is where we dramatically shift our glasses up and down our face a la Matt Foley -- does that say Dayton? Odin's beard! A warm Bubble Watch welcome goes out to both."

"Valparaiso [20-4 (10-1), RPI: 49, SOS: 188] If Chattanooga is on, we might as well throw Valpo in the mix too. The Crusaders are similarly superior to their mid-major league (10-1 in the Horizon). They have a similar RPI number, a far more favorable nonconference schedule, one more top-100 win, and the same number of sub-150 losses. Where Chattanooga got a genuinely marquee victory at Dayton, however, Bryce Drew's team had to settle for a W at Oregon State. Nice, sure, but it's no Dayton. Or, for that matter, Oregon. (The Ducks held on for a 73-67 win back on Nov. 22.) The Crusaders spent much of November and December intermittently banged up. Now healthy, they play the stingiest per-possession defense in the country, while star forward Alec Peters is basically Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff without the blocked shots. That may, in the end, be Valpo's trump card: They're just really good. Better than their resume hints, anyway."