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Is there any chance that Evansville would move over to the Horizon as was rumored last fall?  If Evansville views the Horizon League footprint as a better student recruiting area, that may be reason enough.  If Evansville would jump over, that could open up the MVC for Valpo, as the MVC privates would again want to add another private school, forcing the MVC publics to accept Valpo rather than UIC  (although Denver might be possible too).

Did my own analysis using some of the metro area population / travel / academics issues listed above  (and negatives for football, lack of baseball, and airplane travel) and came up with the following preferences for the Horizon League:

1.  Evansville (assuming they have interest)
2.  Oakland
3.  Belmont 

large gap

4.  N Kentucky (although they wouldn't help in baseball until fully DI)
5.  Robert Morris (again don't help in baseball)
6.  SIU-E
7.  Bellarmine (even though they aren't DI yet, they grade out very highly on qualities desired by the Horizon)

Anyone west of the Mississippi doesn't have a chance due to travel issues.  A school with football needs to be non-scholarship, otherwise the pressure to upgrade in FCS is a high risk.

First time poster on this board from another school, so hope that is O.K. 

Very nice matrix set up, but I think there needs to be a couple of categories added or modified:

First off, one of the most important metrics needs to size of a metro area.  The bigger the metro area, the more points added.  Chicagoland was the reason that Loyola was chosen by the MVC, not because of historical RPI.  A school like Morehead St in a micropolitan area has no shot at the Horizon unless it makes the NCAA's five years in a row with continued success.  Same with Murray St.  Although IUPUI doesn't have many credentials (except academic), it does have the Indy metro area.   NKU, SIUE, Belmont, Oakland, and Robert Morris all get significant points just because they lie in major metro areas, whereas the Dakota's get limited pts.

2nd:  public / private balance in the Horizon.  Since the Horizon lost two private schools in Butler and Loyola, Detroit and Valpo have to be clamoring to regain additional private schools.  Case in point, the MVC lost a private, and then chose a private to replace it to restore a 6 public to 4 private balance.  So schools like Robert Morris, Belmont, and maybe even Evansville (which was rumored last fall), are going to be pushed especially hard by Detroit and Valpo.  The private schools tend to stick up for each other, other Valpo, Loyola, and Butler did for protecting Detroit from the Horizon adding Oakland.  With only two private schools left in the Horizon, the private schools no longer form a block to stop a school, but they will want their numbers at least partially restored.  Even a DII school like Bellarmine in Louisville could be pushed by them.  A reputable private school should get like 20 extra points.  If public schools were being replaced, then there wouldn't be premium extra points added for private schools.

3rd:  travel expenses.  Minimizing travel expenses in Olympic sports is a huge deal for all Horizon teams.  What matters is not how close a new school is to the closest team, but air fares be required to the new school from the furthest Horizon teams.   UWGB probably doesn't want Robert Morris or Belmont, whereas  the idea of UMKC, Omaha, and the Dakotas is the last place that Cleveland St, YSU, or WSU want.  With a base of 20 points, subtract 5 points for conference member that would have to pay for air fares to a new school (over 500 miles) and keep subtracting even if the number becomes negative.

4th:  academics.  Some schools simply won't be acceptable unless there isn't a choice:  like Chicago St.  Others, like those with strict admission standards (Belmont) or those with med school (Oakland, UMKC, USD, IUPUI) or extensive grad schools (IUPUI, NDSU, SDSU) get extra points, even if the public isn't aware.

5th:  baseball.  Because baseball is a big need in the Horizon, add 20 points if they have baseball or will add it.

6th:  football.  While football is most often a big positive, Horizon schools don't look at it as positive because it pulls money away from basketball and into football.  Look at Youngstown State.  Murray St, W Ill, the Dakota schools, and even Robert Morris will not be looked at as positively by Horizon Presidents because they have football.  Moreover, Murray St and Robert Morris likely won't accept a Horizon bid unless they find a conference for their football teams, which likely means dropping their teams to non-scholarship.  Subtract 20 pts for football, unless a school with Horizon interest can drop scholarships.

[size=78%] I wanted to create a separate thread...I didn't want something like 30,000 words lost in the shuffle. This is a link to a forum thread. The reason I post this thread is because there are two articles linked inside - one laying out the potential suitors for the Horizon League, the second what I would do if given that list.  [/size]