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One of the continued takeaways for me is how difficult the job is for VU's leadership to navigate all of those factors. 

In fairness to VU's leadership, this is hard for most university's leadership to navigate. A company facing a major shift can repurpose or retrain its people, but that is far more rare for universities. Further, because of tenure universities need to retain many faculty regardless of whether their discipline is growing, steady or in decline. Only deep-pocketed universities can fund this sort of inefficiency. Not to mention the resistance by some parts of the organization or the need to partially retain those areas for a robust core curriculum.

How cool is it that Valpo can claim Bryce Drew, Scott Drew, Roger Powell, and Jake Diebler as alumni that are HC at the D-1 level?

Only Bryce is an actual alum, but all have been major contributors to the program.

You could also add Matt Driscoll.

Here is a recent story about Allegheny College, showing their declining enrollment trends and recent S&P ratings cut for their debt. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/longtime-pennsylvania-liberal-arts-college-204417049.html

Allegheny has a good reputation as a small, quality, private liberal arts university located in western Pennsylvania. I have had several colleagues who have kids who graduated from there, and they generally thought it was a good school. Allegheny has 1,353 students, but this is down 37% from 2012. It also has an endowment of $264M (or about $198K per student per the NACUBO report;  VU has an endowment per student of $110K per student). The report highlights some of the same enrollment headwinds that have been discussed elsewhere.

My recent posts seem to be negative, instead I am trying to share some facts about the situation facing VU and other, similarly-sized private institutions.

I took a look at Allegheny College's website. The striking thing here is that they have very few majors that can directly be tied to jobs/careers. Computer science is the exception. For "business", it is really just economics branded as business - no faculty or courses in accounting, marketing, supply chain, finance, etc. Bottom line is that they are a pure liberal arts + sciences college. Allegheny may do this very well, but that is not where the market is. Students and their families value these areas, but if they are going to pay a significant amount for college they expect a clear path to meaningful employment after four years. Thus, Allegheny is different from Valpo as Valpo has a meaningful and accredited College of Business, engineering, health sciences, nursing, etc.

This is from a news report in Milwaukee tonight regarding the Concordia system
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The university sent an email to students this week, alerting them of a recent financial health check that found the university was spending more money than it was taking in.

Students were told cuts would be coming and the Ann Arbor campus must be reimagined by next fall, with significant reduction in operations and smaller cutbacks at the Mequon campus.

Incompetency in the federal government, specifically the Department of Education, is harming recruiting for the upcoming year, especially by Valparaiso and other tuition-driven private universities. The FAFSA financial aid form, usually available to students by October 1, was postponed until December 31. Then, delay of the release was extended again until sometime in March because of glitches or errors in its content and process. As a result, the university cannot confirm financial aid for students, who are required to complete the federal form first. Therefore, applicants are in a limbo state of confusion and uncertainty about whether or not they will be able to afford a private school education, and it is impossible for many of them to make deposits. Consequently, some prospective students likely will simply play it safe and opt for less expensive state schools. A number of universities are now stretching their decision deadline date from March 1 to May 1 or June 1. Apparently, a couple of private universities have already completely eliminated the commitment deadline. This is not good for enrollment numbers at places like Valparaiso University.

Thanks for posting this. Our decision deadline date for recent years has been May 1 and gets "soft stretched" to June 1 (the soft stretch period tends to offset those who change their mind after making the deposit). The FAFSA incompetency definitely hurts the private universities.

Well...so much for Indiana State being ranked after losing at home to Illinois State.

valpo95 - Thank you for posting this.

Not meeting debt covenants is a huge issue and, like you, I have never seen that this has happened at Valpo. Beyond having to pay higher interest rates and the reputation damage, you can also surmise that the debt holder will also demand greater visibility into Bradley's financials and factors that affect their financial performance. Universities (like many other types of private organizations) hate such transparency, but Bradley has no choice (since the debt holder could have called in the $17M immediately).

Another interesting thing from the article is that their CFO is interim and is leaving at the end of the month (and there is no announcement of a new CFO). That definitely signals turmoil.

They are ranked for the first time since 1979. Good for the Valley!

Does anyone think that Indiana State has a legit chance to win a game in March Madness as a 14 seed or something? I don't think they will get an at large bid.

Indiana State is projected as an 11 seed...and they definitely can win a game with that seeding.

I will give you two positives:
1. Seeing Indiana State be this good is an indicator of how good Valpo can become.
2. If Valpo had won, it would have almost eliminated the chances of the MVC getting two teams in the NCAA tournament. Only chance is Indiana State wins out in the regular season, but then loses to a team like Drake in the conference tournament. In that case, Indiana State would get an at-large bid.

Up 2 at the half, get the job finished!

On a day when, amazingly, there are four games in which both teams are ranked in the AP Top 10 - Valpo will win 78-68

It isn't exactly about VU basketball, yet Bryce Drew has GCU playing well. They are currently 20-2 and on the #11 line in the current ESPN bracketology. Their schedule isn't great, yet GCU has wins against San Francisco and San Diego State. The two losses are to South Carolina and Seattle U.

Contrast that with Jerry Stackhouse at the other VU - they are 5-15 and winless in the SEC. (Bryce Drew got fired after his third season at Vandy after going 9-23.)

I firmly believe that Vanderbilt should've waited 2 more years, especially with the injuries in Bryce's last year. I also can't blame an AD when you do an 0'fer in conference play.

Bryce and GCU basketball will be fine. 10-11 seed is about right.

If he wins a game or two in NCAA tournament, is there any speculation where he might land?  Please don't say DePaul.


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Grand Canyon, in their efforts to develop credibility for the university, overpaid Bryce (he made $1.5M in 2022). Not faulting Bryce for finding the best way to get paid, and GCU would likely go to at least $2M to keep him. Thus, a program would need to significantly beat $2M AND have a good foundation and resources - as well as giving the necessary latitude - to build a program. That is not DePaul.

GCU's one major limitation is that it is very unlikely that another conference would take them (so they have no way to move up). University Presidents in potential conferences (WCC, MWC) are not going to accept having a for-profit university with very poorly accredited academics in their conference.

Who might it be? Butler? (if Thad Matta retires) One of the former Pac-12 teams? (expect a bunch of movement with conference realignment, plus Bobby Hurley's tenure at ASU may end shortly). My guess is that the most likely scenario is that Bryce stays at GCU.

All other things being equal, non-White coaches are more likely to be dismissed in college basketball. However, Stackhouse won 19 games in his third year and 22 in his fourth. Thus, he may be able to survive a bad 2023-2024 season.

62 - thank you for the thoughtful response.

Obviously it is still early, but an interesting situation is emerging regarding potential NCAA tournament bids by conference. There is a realistic possibility that at least four (and possibly as many as six) teams from the Mountain West conference will make the NCAA tournament, and that its number of bids may eclipse bids from the ACC and Pac-12. This could realistically happen despite the transfer rules and vast NIL differences.

The MVC could learn something from the MWC. The MVC does have an outside shot at two, but that scenario has Indiana State dominating the rest of the way and then losing in the conference tourney semifinal or final.

I never played football and have never discussed this with any football players, but how would the current football players view this question? Would they prefer playing more higher tier opponents or playing non-D1 opponents outside of conference? This should be considered in such decisions.

Valpopal - You are absolutely correct for pointing out that I have made that comment multiple times. I have just seen too many cases of reporting "the indicators look really good", followed months later with missed goals and expectations.

Some general updates with good news and reasons for optimism as we move under the 40 days until March 1 mark. Although it is still too early to come to a conclusion about enrollment for fall semester and anything can happen, the current numbers are very encouraging across the board. Despite the fact that the process of application has been delayed for most individuals since changes at the national level made FAFSA availability happen almost three months later this year (which I believe slowed football recruitment a bit), Valpo's overall numbers appear to be ahead of those at this time the past few years.

Additionally, Indiana instituted a new law this year requiring the state's seniors to file FAFSA papers unless waived by parents. The state is aiming for a 25% uptick this year over last year. This will likely result in an increase of Indiana students eligible for the college pool, the population from which VU draws many applicants. Finally, I am told the enrollment for the nursing program is extraordinarily healthy, partially because of the good publicity from the recent announcement of Valparaiso University and the University of Chicago Medicine launching a new training program together. 

While I am hopeful that you are correct, I will again state that there are three measures that are far more meaningful than any other measures: on-campus visits, acceptances, and deposits. If those measures are up (year-over-year or versus goal), then things look promising. If it is something like applications, that is far less indicative.

2-5, but the continued gradual increase in the quality of play will be a sign of progress.

it is incredible how DePaul has sunk so low, I am glad Stubblefield got canned, but the culture needs a complete enema.

Among DePaul's many problems, they also need to address the lack of student interest and engagement that occurs when your stadium is not easily accessible by students. You can get away with that if you have had a lot of recent success (e.g., Villanova), but not when you are attempting your nth rebuild.

Hard to see Drew or Hurley taking that job - even though ASU lacks any consistency. DePaul is going with an interim for the rest of this year.

It's a process that takes time, but I do believe Coach Powell has started the right process (regarding getting to the right culture and talent).

Good win!

David81 - As always, you offer very insightful thoughts.

While I agree with your comments, I will add that I also think that part of this is out of self-interest. Administrators want to advance to more senior roles at their current or other universities and they know that some decision-makers associated with potential advancement are in the group that is excessively consumed with terminology that, in the end, has little or nothing to do with actual success. The same goes for academics looking for greater prestige (via publication or other scholarly achievements). Academics who try to publish work in important areas like student retention, organizational dynamics, or minority leadership can get strong pushback (from editors and reviewers) if the findings or terminology are not exactly consistent with these peoples' worldview (despite the findings probably being different than the worldview of those on the other side of the spectrum). Scholarly research should be about seeking the truth and new understandings, not confirming anyone's specific worldview.

Valpo wins this one, 67-64

As of last night, Javon Freeman-Liberty has officially played in the NBA. In last nights blowout win for the Raptors, he played two minutes and scored two points.

He is the fourth former Valpo player in its D1 era to play in the NBA.

Love the video - especially the intro honoring Connie Bretscher on her 103rd birthday.