Little Three/Pathetic Three

[setshot]

Out East the "Little Three"are known as Williams,Amherst and Wesleyan. Good schools academically and D3 sportswise. Now Valpo,Davidson and Campbell have an opportunity to be known as "The Least Three." Currently the three teams are last in this week's Sagarin ratings. So, if Valpo,after its win over Campbell beats Davidson,we will be Champs of the "Least Three." Wow! let's go for it. Hail Crusaders,fight Crusaders ----------- and then,DROP FOOTBALL

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I don't know why you expect us to drop football--only three fumbles in the last four games, only one of which was a turnover--

...seems to me we're actually doing pretty well at holding on to the football.

[VULB#62]

By way of context here are the full PFL Sagarin ratings as of November 3:

182 San Diego (5-3)
195 Drake (6-3)
212 Dayton (5-5)
214 Jacksonville (6-3)
218 Butler (8-2)
220 Marist (3-5)
228 Morehead (3-6)
244 Valpo (1-8)
245 Davidson (1-8)
246 Campbell (1-8)

I find it interesting that the PFL leader who has already beaten Dayton and Jacksonville is rated so low.  But it may have to do with the fact that their unbeaten PFL season also includes fluffy wins against:  Campbell (35-14) , Davison (31-20), Valpo (56-17), Morehead (39-35)  and Marist (17-14).  They have only Drake left on their schedule.

[crusaderjoe]

Whichever PFL school finishes last in Sagarin should be forced to play their football in the WAC next year as punishment. 

[valporun]

I was just looking at the PFL website, and both Davidson and Campbell have fired their head coaches. This should help our chances of more wins next season, adding in Stetson and Mercer.

[milanmiracle]

I was just looking at the PFL website, and both Davidson and Campbell have fired their head coaches. This should help our chances of more wins next season, adding in Stetson and Mercer.

Just because they're getting worse doesn't mean you're getting better...

[90]

Campbell's coach had a 14-39 record in his fifth season.  He was hired to start the program in 2006 and began play two years later.  Davidson's coach was 31-51 in eight seasons.  Does Valpo keep Carlson who appears to be on the same path or worse, or do they cut ties now?  A bold move needs to be made now.   

[VULB#62]

For the kids, I hate to see coaches dismissed in-season.  But I guess that's a two-way street.  It can either invigorate a program or collapse it.  Hope for the kids at Davidson that they'll survive. We're past Campbell, so that's water under the bridge, but the same sentiments hold true.

Although they each have had longer tenures than our present coaching staff, it shows that even in the non-scholarship PFL, results count.  Campbell was a factor last year but beset with injuries this year -- yet he's gone. 

[valpo95]

Campbell's coach had a 14-39 record in his fifth season.  He was hired to start the program in 2006 and began play two years later.  Davidson's coach was 31-51 in eight seasons.  Does Valpo keep Carlson who appears to be on the same path or worse, or do they cut ties now?  A bold move needs to be made now.   

Given the state of disarry of Valpo Football before Coach Carlson arrived, I would be completely shocked if anything happened during the season. 

The better news is that the roster is full of underclassmen, and there are two winnable games on the schedule. 

[VULB#62]

Although they each have had longer tenures than our present coaching staff, it shows that even in the non-scholarship PFL, results count.  Campbell was a factor last year but beset with injuries this year -- yet he's gone.

"Given the state of disarry of Valpo Football before Coach Carlson arrived, I would be completely shocked if anything happened during the season. 

The better news is that the roster is full of underclassmen, and there are two winnable games on the schedule."

Agree on the timing, but the key is "winnable."

[covufan]

After last week and the fact that we have two more winnable games, one more so than the other, I think we need to look at some things before we get rid of football, or the coach.  VU Football has been upgrading the schedule for several years, most of it coming from the expanded PFL.  In Coach Horne's first three years, we played a total of 26 games against less than Division I-AA schools.  Under Adams' first three years the number was 11.  Carlson had 4 games against less than Div I-AA teams.  Also, both Horne and Adams teams did show improvement in the points for/against column.  If we go 1-1 in the last two games of this season, Carlson should do the same.  Here are some of the numbers:

Coach   < Div I   PFL   Overall Horne   36-41-1   28-51   67-101-1 Adams   9-8   6-31   15-40 Carlson   0-4   2-20   2-29           Horne – minus first 3 years   34-18   28-47   65-74

Coach/yr   W   L   T   PF   PA   Delta Horne '89   0   10      100   431   -331 Horne '90   1   9      97   370   -273 Horne '91   1   8   1   104   273   -169                    Adams '05   3   8      187   424   -237 Adams '06   3   8      212   378   -166 Adams '07   5   6      245   321   -76                    Carlson '10   0   11      100   514   -414 Carlson '11   1   10      177   500   -323 Carlson '12   1   8      151   392   -241

I think that Carlson's team is showing improvement.  From the two-deep roster, it looks like we have 4 Srs starting on Offense and 2 on Defense.  We have 16 Fr/So on Offense and 18 on Defense.  Based on Carlson's previous record at other schools, and the incremental improvement shown the last two years, we should give him another 2 years or so.  Carlson has his work cut out to better Adams' five year win total, although Horne's is beatable. 

[VULB#62]

VU Football has been upgrading the schedule for several years, most of it coming from the expanded PFL. 

COVUFAN you make a good point.  The schedule that Carlson has faced (and he was instrumental in its planning and implementation -- often to his record's detriment) is the toughest of the three.  Maybe there is an exception amongst Horne's and Adams' opponents, but in the last hree years, besides the D-IAA PFL teams he has faced at least two scholarship programs in each of his first three seasons (this year all three OOC opponents were scholarshipped) and in each of the three years one of those came from the fully scholarshipped MVFC. No Wisconsin Lutherans or Concordia Wisconsins.  The only D-III was Franklin and they were conference champions and a solid program. In year one and two he could have loaded up on real patsies, but that was not the case.  You're right, that must be taken into account in the end of the year evaluation.

[90]

Obviously way too optimistic in his scheduling.  They needed to get wins, not humiliation.  Seems to me that when turning a program around, you need to start low and aim higher as the record improves.  All of that aside, Carlson's teams have not been competitive in the PFL except against Campbell so far.  That and his lack of judgement on scheduling are what need to be considered in his end of season evaluation.  Again we see that there is a big difference between starting a program and turning one around.  Time to find someone with a more realistic view of the situation who will truly work to "build" the program. 

[crusadermoe]

As I have said ad nauseum, morale is just a HUGE FACTOR in turning around a program.   

It would be interesting to look at Kansas State and Northwestern's turnaround stories and their scheduling philosophy in the years that  marked the turnaround.

I suspect, tho have no idea, that they played lesser opponents in their pre-conference games so that they could build up some momentum.    No point in playing YSU and Duchesne or the NEC teams just to "act tough" when your kids will get whacked around and the offense will lose its timing before the PFL season.

We also had some bad luck in the schedule by facing the tougher PFL teams first.    Hope next year gives us a break or two early.     I'm torn between dumping Carlson in late November or giving one more year.   I am leaning toward the former.

[VULB#62]

As I have said ad nauseum, morale is just a HUGE FACTOR in turning around a program.   

It would be interesting to look at Kansas State and Northwestern's turnaround stories and their scheduling philosophy in the years that  marked the turnaround.

I suspect, tho have no idea, that they played lesser opponents in their pre-conference games so that they could build up some momentum.    No point in playing YSU and Duchesne or the NEC teams just to "act tough" when your kids will get whacked around and the offense will lose its timing before the PFL season.

We also had some bad luck in the schedule by facing the tougher PFL teams first.    Hope next year gives us a break or two early.     I'm torn between dumping Carlson in late November or giving one more year.   I am leaning toward the former.

Playing Davidson and Campbell earlier might have made a bit of a difference.  Let's reserve final judgment until we see how the game goes Saturday and whether we re able to go into Morehead and at least be competitive. 

[covufan]

Obviously way too optimistic in his scheduling.  They needed to get wins, not humiliation.  Seems to me that when turning a program around, you need to start low and aim higher as the record improves.  All of that aside, Carlson's teams have not been competitive in the PFL except against Campbell so far.  That and his lack of judgement on scheduling are what need to be considered in his end of season evaluation.  Again we see that there is a big difference between starting a program and turning one around.  Time to find someone with a more realistic view of the situation who will truly work to "build" the program. 

I don't think it is "his" schedule.  I believe that the University, as well as the PFL, is try to make the schedule more to the Div I-AA level.  I believe this is in response to the PFL getting a bid to the I-AA Championship field of 24 starting in 2013.  The PFL may not always be competitive in these games, but there will be years where, with a favorable seeding, we(the PFL team) have a chance to win a game or two.

[VULB#62]

Obviously way too optimistic in his scheduling.  They needed to get wins, not humiliation.  Seems to me that when turning a program around, you need to start low and aim higher as the record improves.  All of that aside, Carlson's teams have not been competitive in the PFL except against Campbell so far.  That and his lack of judgement on scheduling are what need to be considered in his end of season evaluation.  Again we see that there is a big difference between starting a program and turning one around.  Time to find someone with a more realistic view of the situation who will truly work to "build" the program. 

I don't think it is "his" schedule.  I believe that the University, as well as the PFL, is try to make the schedule more to the Div I-AA level.  I believe this is in response to the PFL getting a bid to the I-AA Championship field of 24 starting in 2013.  The PFL may not always be competitive in these games, but there will be years where, with a favorable seeding, we(the PFL team) have a chance to win a game or two.

Have to agree with COVUFAN.  If you check the PFL teams, they all upgraded starting in 2010.  This year for most, it was their toughest yet.  For instance USD went to Cal Poly and Harvard along with a New Mexico D-II team.  Butler went to WIU and Dartmouth along with Franklin (a bit of a drop-off).  Marist played NEC team Bryant, Columbia and Bucknell of the Patriot League.  Drake took on Montana State and Indiana State (both nationally ranked) along with with NAIA Grand View.  Valpo faced three scholarshipped programs.

Carlson had a say in some of that and, as I speculated, he might have been able to go a bit lighter in 2010 and maybe even 2011, but all the MVFC games are contracted years in advance. I don't think the fault is in the scheduling (MLB told me that when they scheduled YSU the Penguins were horrible, but in the time between the contract and the games they dumped millions into the program and changed the coaching staff); I think the fault was in underestimating how long it would take to build a competitive club by starting with in-coming freshmen instead of looking at JCs and transfers in years 1 and 2 to get a leg up along with the freshmen.

[valpotx]

The Kansas State/TCU game this weekend will be interesting, especially if Klein is out.  TCU would have won had Pachall not gotten doped up even with Klein healthy, but this RS FR QB is getting better.