Guesses on the 2013 PFL Schedule

[VULB#62]

It's nearing the end of the season.  Butler is riding a 7-0 PFL record with only Drake remaining.  Drake lost to Dayton and USD's game against Marist will probably be played December 1 due to Sandy.  It could be a three way tie at 7-1 if Drake beats Butler and USD runs the table. 

But that's happening at the top.  Let's take a guess at what the 2013 schedule for us bottom feeders might look like.  The bottom 3 at this point are Campbell, VU, and Davidson.  In the middle of the pack are Dayton and Marist, with Dayton projected to have the better record between them, and Morehead.  According to an email reply to a question I sent him earlier in the year, MLB said that the PFL, with a total of 12 teams,  will not go to two divisions with the addition of Mercer and Stetson next season,  but give everyone an 8 game schedule.  Currently there are 10 teams and each school has one team that they don't play during the season.  [We have not played Jacksonville the last two years -- could it be because of that 86-7 loss in 2010?]  So that means each team will not play three teams starting in 2013.

ASSUMPTION #1:  The PFL wants to make as many games as competitive as possible
ASSUMPTION #2:  The PFL wants to nurture and facilitate the development of the fledgling programs at Mercer and Stetson who have not played a game yet
ASSUMPTION #3:  THE PFL is sensitive to travel expense issues
ASSUMPTION #4:  The PFL is cognizant of established rivalries
ASSUMPTION #5:  All PFL teams will play 3 OOC games of their choice (based on existing contractual commitments)
ASSUMPTION #6:  There will be no division set-up

Using those assumptions, the following scheduling strategies would probably be employed:

A.  Bottom feeders/newbies (5 teams) all play each other.  Top of the pack (4 teams) play each other; Middle of the pack (3 teams) all play each other
B.  Bottom feeders/newbies play the middle of the pack teams and only one top team; Top Teams play middle of the pack and two Bottom/Newbies
C.  Geographic location and rivalries will be the primary factor in assigning Top vs. Bottom/Newbie; geographic decisions will rotate to optimize one of the conference's selling points -- trips to other parts of the country.

Based on these assumptions and strategies Valpo's schedule could look something like this:

MERCER
@STETSON
CAMPBELL   
@DAVIDSON
MOREHEAD STATE
@ MARIST
DAYTON
@ BUTLER (both a geographic and a rivalry factor)

Assuming VU goes 1-7 or 2-6, VU avoids JU, Drake and USD in 2013 but travels to FL, NY and NC.  If VU should go 3-5 (    ), they'd probably be bumped to Middle of the Pack and the complexion of the schedule will change. 

This approach sure would help Valpo and other teams develop their programs.  The only issue I can't figure out is what happens if a Bottom/Newbie runs the PFL table and somehow beats its one Top Team?  Even though they are obviously not the best team because of weakness of schedule, they could wind up as the PFL champ or co-champ.

[vu72]

Interesting but how would you feel if you were at the top and had to fight like crazy each week while Valpo
or another weaker team wins more games?  Remember, these so called "bottom feeders" can turn it around pretty quickly--look at Butler this year v. last, for example, or even Valpo a few years back with the addition of a David Macchi.

The only fair thing is a random draw, or some such thing but, as you suggest, Valpo will always play Butler each year.

[VULB#62]

Since my initial post I made a couple of adjustments.  I also (obviously) approached this from a purely selfish angle. My thought is that until the Bottom Feeders/Newbies are fairly competitive (say three years), this could be the strategy.  We at VU know so well what it's like to be hammered game after game.  It's hard to build on that and the PFL knows that.  As far as being a Topcat, the competition at the top will better prepare the eventual champ to compete in the FCS playoffs -- that should make sense to them and alleviate what you allude to 72.  In year four go back to random rotations as the theory says the overall league is more competitive.  But there still is that niggling possibility that a weaker newbie could still steal a championship. 

BTW, I'm still holding a bet that Campbell will go scholarship FCS inside of three years and change the picture a bit.  They just added men's and women's D-I lacrosse and have a big push going to expand Barker Lane stadium. They are in the Big South and are the only school with football not playing a Big South FCS scholarship schedule.  It's fun to speculate -- and in most cases our speculations are off the mark, but fun nevertheless.

[covufan]

I'd really like to see the PFL go to two divisions, with five games in your division, and three against the other division.  The PFL champion would be a game after the regular season with each divisions top teams.  Does anyone know when the FCS playoffs in 2013 would begin?  Would a PFL championship game allow for the PFL champion to play in the FCS playoffs?

I think the NFL also uses a "haves/have nots" approach to scheduling.  If I'm the PFL, I'd want to build rivalries, especially in those schools that are close in proximity. I'd say four of the eight games would be the same every year.  For us it would be Drake, Butler, Dayton and Morehead.  This would also keep travel expenses lower for the teams.  For the other four games, I'd say some rotating formula of when you last played a team, and each team's ranking in the PFL.  Since Mercer and Stetson are new, both to the PFL and to FCS football, they are a wildcard for next year.  For us and 2013, I'd say Jacksonville, Mercer, Campbell, and Davidson.  For 2014, I'd say San Diego, Stetson, Marist, and depending where teams finish in '13 whomever we tied with of Jax, Mercer, Campbell and Davidson.

[chef]

Valpo will play Butler, Drake, Dayton, San Diego and Morehead St. every year. Each of these teams will play each other every year. They'll then play three of the remaining six each season. Thus Mercer, Stetson, Campbell, Davidson, Jacksonville and Marist will all play each other every year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

chef, that a prediction or a statement of fact?

[chef]

fact

[valporun]

I would have to agree with chef. The original members of the PFL will continue to play each other, the newer members will find themselves being fit in wherever possible.

[jmjcjacob]

Mercer has had their 2013 schedule up for some time and it includes a home game vs Valpo on 10/12/13.  In addition they play Stetson, Marist, Jacksonville, Davidson, Campbell, San Diego, and Drake according to their schedule.

[VULB#62]

Mercer has had their 2013 schedule up for some time and it includes a home game vs Valpo on 10/12/13.  In addition they play Stetson, Marist, Jacksonville, Davidson, Campbell, San Diego, and Drake according to their schedule.

And Stetson gets Mercer, USD, Dayton, Butler, Dayton, Marist, Campbell, Davidson, and JU.

So both bottomfeeders Campbell and Davidson get to test both the newbies.  Geographically that makes sense.  Both newbies also get USD.  Marist should be happy too.