Looking to December

[milanmiracle]

The 5 games against a non-DI and DI teams with RPIs of 200+ (most closer to 300) are no brainers.  Mark them as wins.  I voted 6, but that's really the worst case in my opinion.  Here's how I handicap the other 3 games:

SLU - They've been unimpressive so far, dealing with losing their head coach and their best player (Kwamain Mitchell) in the early season.  They also travel to Washington for a Wednesday night game ... Valpo is off the entire week and should be well rested and healthy.  Their arena is nice, but it won't be near capacity and isn't a particularly hostile environment.  All things considered, this is a game Valpo should win.

New Mexico - IMO, the toughest December game.  This is a Saturday game following a Wed home game for Valpo and travel to Albuquerque isn't easy.  Very loud and tough environment, as they'll have close to 15,000 in the Pit.  The altitude is also a factor ... the visiting locker rooms and ramps down to the court have warning posters about the symptoms of altitude sickness prominently displayed.  Lastly, Steve Alford is keenly aware of Valpo's reputation and his team will be prepared.  I think Valpo loses this one.

Murray State - Had to come from behind last night to beat a mediocre Lipscomb team, so they are certainly beatable.  Canaan is very good, but being able to use both Buggs and Dority to defend him will be a huge factor and could wear him down.  They also don't have the size to match up with Valpo bigs, so Capo and Van Wijk should control the paint.  Playing over break while the students are gone is also big.  All signs point to Valpo being the favorite in this one.

Thought I'd revisit my prediction ... I went with 6 wins and think that's still likely.  I was right on SLU (ie. small crowd/average team), but Valpo just didn't play their game.  Now word is out that Broekhoff has mono and Capobianco is far from 100%, so I guess it makes sense.

I originally thought UNM would be extremely tough, but Indiana State took them to OT, so they are certainly beatable by Valpo (who without a doubt has more talent than ISU).  The game is at UNM, so it will take a great effort.  If Broekhoff and Capobianco are still less than 100%, it will be tough, but we'll see in a few days.

Even if they can't get UNM, they can still get to 6 with a win at Murray.

They're not beating New Mexico AT New Mexico. A half healthy Valpo winning in The Pit...extremely unlikely. They're 9-0 with a win over UConn for a reason.

[truth219]

Dority is a point. He will come in for erik or he may play the 2. I hate to say it but bogan, boggs, kenney, and coleman are going to be competing for minutes. In my opinion kenney and coleman are the better players. Will an shoot a little and ben can drive a little...other than that they aren't superstars. They are role players and you can only have so many of those.

Right there with you...

1. Dority with Buggs as a spark off the bench.
2. Kenney/Coleman

I am not impressed with either Bogan or Boggs. They're bench players, which is fine, but they shouldn't be playing major minutes.

I also like Fernandez playing more. Yes, he's raw (very, very raw), but he's also much more athletic and can cover some of the mistakes against the quicker teams VU is going to see. I know they need his offense to improve, but honestly I'd work on his defense first. As long as he can learn to rotate and help, the offense is just a bonus. Capo is just not healthy, and until then I reserve judgement

The thing I like about vashil, is that anytime he can get a decent look he dunks. I know he has duffed a few but he is aggresive at the hoop. Capo missed a lot of easy looks and putbacks last night. If bobby isn't 100 percent, you can't tell. When kevin was playing injured last year you could see him suffering. I don't see that in bobby. I know a lot of people are waiting to see him at 100 percent, but my gut tells me we have and he's no kvw. Kenney, bogan, and boggs have showed nothing special this year. Coleman is at least fun to watch. The dude can dunk and block like no other gaurd on the team.

[valpopal]

The thing I like about vashil, is that anytime he can get a decent look he dunks. I know he has duffed a few but he is aggresive at the hoop. Capo missed a lot of easy looks and putbacks last night. If bobby isn't 100 percent, you can't tell. When kevin was playing injured last year you could see him suffering. I don't see that in bobby. I know a lot of people are waiting to see him at 100 percent, but my gut tells me we have and he's no kvw. Kenney, bogan, and boggs have showed nothing special this year. Coleman is at least fun to watch. The dude can dunk and block like no other gaurd on the team.

What is your definition of "missed a lot"? Bobby only missed 4 shots the whole game. He shot 43%, and if one of his shots I saw that went in and then slid out had fallen, the percent would have been a terrific 57%. I know Bobby wishes he could go all out for more minutes, as we saw in preseason; however, the fact that Bobby does not show he's less than 100% seems admirable considering his situation. Have you seen the surgical evidence that is still visible with his shirt off?

[truth219]

I just don't put a lot of stock in him, that's all

[valpopal]

I just don't put a lot of stock in him, that's all

Obviously, and I get that is why you are not viewing him objectively.

[StlVUFan]

In the chat room, somebody was complaining the Bobby wasn't going up strongly enough, which I found very confusing, because on my little screen I could tell he was going up too strongly.

[FWalum]

There is a reason that so much emphasis is put on core strength in basketball.  Core strength is a major component of almost all basic basketball positioning and movement.  It is common sense to think that a person with a bruised abdominal area is most likely not at 100% core strength.  I thought that there was visible improvement in Capo's movement and willingness to fight down on the block Wednesday versus the previous Sunday.  I think that Capo's misses were caused by being too deep and not giving himself some room to pivot and drop step, many moves caused him to be behind the backboard or literally under the basket causing awkward shots.  Just as Edwards didn't really come along until 20 games into the season, (and he didn't have to fight an abdominal surgery) I think that Capo can find his footing as the season progresses.

[valpotx]

Bobby's hands were going up too strongly, his body was not.  He was fading away and throwing it too hard.  When I say 'go up strong,' it means jumping up into the contact, not shying away from it as a 6'8" or 6"10" guy

[StlVUFan]

Bobby's hands were going up too strongly, his body was not.  He was fading away and throwing it too hard.  When I say 'go up strong,' it means jumping up into the contact, not shying away from it as a 6'8" or 6"10" guy

OK.  I couldn't tell that when I saw him because the camera angle was from under the basket (at least that I remember).

I wonder if his body fading away is the reason why his hands were too strong...

[valpopal]

5-3 (losses at St. Louis, New Mexico, Murray State), enough to put Valpo at double digit wins and my original optimistic preseason prediction (10-4) before the conference begins.

Okay, trade Oakland for Murray State, but the numbers are all correct, and I think the team is right where they're supposed to be going into conference play. Plus, everyone appears healthy and Dority is comfortably fitting into the mix. Looking forward to the intensity of Horizon League games!

[StlVUFan]

5-3 (losses at St. Louis, New Mexico, Murray State), enough to put Valpo at double digit wins and my original optimistic preseason prediction (10-4) before the conference begins.

Okay, trade Oakland for Murray State, but the numbers are all correct, and I think the team is right where they're supposed to be going into conference play. Plus, everyone appears healthy and Dority is comfortably fitting into the mix. Looking forward to the intensity of Horizon League games!

I also think that Bobby has become at least a very decent fill in for Kevin Van Wijk.  It seemed to me we didn't miss a beat when Kevin sat down yesterday.

[bbtds]

5-3 (losses at St. Louis, New Mexico, Murray State), enough to put Valpo at double digit wins and my original optimistic preseason prediction (10-4) before the conference begins.

Okay, trade Oakland for Murray State, but the numbers are all correct, and I think the team is right where they're supposed to be going into conference play. Plus, everyone appears healthy and Dority is comfortably fitting into the mix. Looking forward to the intensity of Horizon League games!

I also think that Bobby has become at least a very decent fill in for Kevin Van Wijk.  It seemed to me we didn't miss a beat when Kevin sat down yesterday.

The only thing is that for as slow and deliberate as Kevin can be Bobby is actually slower and even more deliberate. On that last Valpo basket after Bobby made all his deliberate moves, looked to dribble, looked to pass and made a full turnaround and finally realized he was all alone under the basket with no one guarding him he laid the ball in the basket. A priceless skill when you're that tall but he seems to have to go through all the thought processes. In the end those were the points that put Valpo ahead for good and without Bobby Valpo doesn't win it at the end. 

You just gotta love Bobby!