Valpo in the Polls (and the HL too)

[vu72]

What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.

It would be a little odd for SDSU to get a 13 over us for a couple of reasons.  In other computer rankings they are a fair amount below us, Sagarin for example, has us at 66 while SDSU is 94.  Their strength of schedule is #233.  Yes, they beat New Mexico but we weren't at full strength.  They also lost to Belmont by 27, Minnesota by 24 and Murray State by 11.  Finally, they lost to CSU Bakersfield (talk about a bad loss) who isn't even in a conference.  Given many of their wins were against a far inferior conference, I sure don't see them getting the nod over us.  I doubt we are in any trouble of getting a 13.  Like tx though, I'd love to see them in Austin!

[milanmiracle]

What is hurting us is we do not have a quality win. SD St beat New Mexico at New Mexico. I think that gives them the edge.

It would be a little odd for SDSU to get a 13 over us for a couple of reasons.  In other computer rankings they are a fair amount below us, Sagarin for example, has us at 66 while SDSU is 94.  Their strength of schedule is #233.  Yes, they beat New Mexico but we weren't at full strength.  They also lost to Belmont by 27, Minnesota by 24 and Murray State by 11.  Finally, they lost to CSU Bakersfield (talk about a bad loss) who isn't even in a conference.  Given many of their wins were against a far inferior conference, I sure don't see them getting the nod over us.  I doubt we are in any trouble of getting a 13.  Like tx though, I'd love to see them in Austin!

And this will be very interesting to me, because I think it could go either way. I don't know if there's a wrong answer here, but the question will be how much of a credit/penalty will there be for conference play.

The top four in the Summit actually have a better RPI than the top for in the Horizon according to RealTime RPI, but just barely. The Summit is 65,69,121, and 152 vs. The Horizon of 59 (Valpo), 67, 136, and 161. The big difference is the bottom feeders, as the Summit has all the rest of their teams at 241 or lower. The Horizon League only has 2 below that threshold. Does the committee care about beating bad teams vs. really bad teams? Hmm...

Does all that trump beating New Mexico? I don't know. One other thing to consider, is Nate Wolters. While it shouldn't matter, I suspect having an NBA prospect might get you a nod with all things being equal.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The Summit is 65,69,121, and 152 vs. The Horizon of 59 (Valpo), 67, 136, and 161.

That's pretty selective, though.  Conferences are the sum of their parts, not just some members.

It's like cross-country:
if you counted the top one or two runners, HL wins.
if you counted the top three or four, Summit wins.
if you counted the top five, or six, or seven etc....the HL wins.

It shouldn't be that close if it matters that the HL is the #12 (avg RPI 169) conference and the Summit is #19 (avg RPI 199).

In fact, since December, only for one day has the Summit been any higher than #17.

Seems like a good time to redeploy...

[zvillehaze]

CBSSports has a decent tool for comparing the details of teams here:  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison

Lots of good discussions here, but in my opinion, the overal RPI ranking of conferences isn't really a factor in seeding.  What I'm trying to say is that it obviously impacts overall SOS and RPI, but beyond that, the committee doesn't really look at conference affiliation.  Their task is to select the "best teams" and seed those teams based upon what they've achieved.

The SDSU vs. Valpo comparison is an interesting example, because in overal SOS and RPI, the two teams are very close (Valpo a slight edge in both).  SDSU's conference SOS (306) is well below Valpo's (210), but their OOC SOS (48) is significantly better than Valpo's (230).  In the past, the committee has tended to focus on (or at least mention) the OOC SOS, because those are the games that teams have control over.

There are a hundred different ways to look at these things ... trying to guess how the committee will evaluate things is anyone's guess.

[VULB#62]

USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.

[ValpoHoops]

Lots of good discussions here, but in my opinion, the overal RPI ranking of conferences isn't really a factor in seeding.  What I'm trying to say is that it obviously impacts overall SOS and RPI, but beyond that, the committee doesn't really look at conference affiliation.  Their task is to select the "best teams" and seed those teams based upon what they've achieved.

Ding!! The committee will look at raw numbers, not the conference affiliation.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

they are 22-9. We're 25-7.  Doesn't seem that close to me.

Admittedly, they have a slightly better OOC RPI, 66 to 78, but they're way worse and we're perfectly consistent (both 78s).

If they are ahead of us it is because of That Win, which, in the words of Jerry to George, "is a pretty big matzo ball"

[covufan]

USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.

One place had the K-State game in Kansas City.  I wouldn't want to play K-State there, even though it is Missouri.

[vuweathernerd]

USAToday has us at a 13 against #4 K-State.

One place had the K-State game in Kansas City.  I wouldn't want to play K-State there, even though it is Missouri.

at least that's the good side of the line

[valpotx]

Lunardi keeping us at a 13 against Arizona this time, while moving SDSU to a 13, and NMSU to a 14

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[VULB#62]

USAToday agrees with Lunardi now:  Valpo #13 v. #4 AZ =in the West.

[agibson]

You won't believe who got our vote in the AP Poll.

That's right.... Montana!

You won't believe who gave it to them.

John Feinstein, how could you!

[agibson]

I assume the mid-major poll's not done for the year?  But maybe they're taking a week or two off before a final poll?

The last couple of years I seemed to trail off at the end of the season, so I'm not actually sure when they stop voting.

[agibson]

For fun, let me prefix last week's poll with their NCAA seed.

More games were played after this, but using this one removes the possibility of the NCAA Selection Committee biasing the coaches/coaching staffs polled.

Update: March 11th, 2013

#1 1.    Gonzaga (31)    30-2    775    1    West Coast
#11 2.    Saint Mary's    27-5    719    3    West Coast
#11 3.    Belmont    26-6    695    5    Ohio Valley
#7 4.    Creighton    27-7    688    7    Missouri Valley
NIT #5 5.    Stephen F. Austin    26-3    629    6    Southland
#11 6.    Middle Tennessee    28-5    627    2    Sun Belt
#11 7.    Bucknell    27-5    559    9    Patriot
NIT #5 8.    Louisiana Tech    26-5    541    4    WAC
#14 9.    Davidson    25-7    521    10    Southern
#14 10.    Valparaiso    25-7    474    12    Horizon
#9 11.    Wichita State    26-8    463    11    Missouri Valley
NIT #3 12.    Denver    21-8    455    14    WAC
#13 13.    Montana    23-6    412    13    Big Sky
#12 14.    Akron    24-6    380    8    Mid-American
CIT 15.    Weber State    24-5    336    15    Big Sky (Is this actually pronounced Weeber?!)
NIT #6 16.    Ohio    23-8    290    18    Mid-American
#13 17.    South Dakota State    23-9    259    19    Summit
CBI 18.    Western Illinois    22-7    220    20    Summit
NIT #3 19.    BYU    21-11    215    16    West Coast
NIT #7 20.    Stony Brook    24-7    151    17    America East
NIT #8 21.    Norfolk State    21-10    111    24    MEAC
#13 22.    New Mexico State    21-10    94    NR    WAC
nada? 23.    Murray State    21-10    86    21    Ohio Valley
NIT #6 24.    Detroit    20-12    56    23    Horizon
#15 25.    Florida Gulf Coast    24-10    50    NR    Atlantic Sun


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: CIT Eastern Kentucky 29, CBI Lehigh 26, CIT Wright State 21, #14 Harvard 20,CBI North Dakota State 16, CBI College of Charleston 15, CIT Evansville 15, NIT #6 Indiana State 13, North Carolina Central 11, #14 Northwestern State 11, Florida International 10, #16 LIU-Brooklyn 10, CIT Northern Iowa 10, Albany 8, #15 Pacific 8, NIT #7 Long Beach State 7, CBI Western Michigan 7, Lafayette 5, Mount St. Mary's 5, NIT #8 Robert Morris 5, Utah State 5, Iona 4, Albany 3, Princeton 3, #16 Western Kentucky 1, CBI Vermont 1

Some connection, certainly.  And some real disconnects.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/03/19/perception-grandstanding-and-the-non-mystery-of-scheduling/

Interesting analysis of the MWC "gaming" the RPI system (or just being better than the SEC and ACC this year) includes these really important paragraphs:

The RPI is not some secret sauce formula. It's an overly simplistic and widely public metric. A team's rank is of comprised 25 percent of their record (adjusted, with flawed math, for home/away results), 50 percent of their composite opponents' record, and 25 percent of their opponents' composite record. For the latter two categories, just add up wins and losses. This is the easiest thing in the world to calculate, and quite simple to "rig" in your favor. All you have to do is avoid teams that are going to be really bad, and beat the teams you should beat. The Mountain West doesn't have the guarantee game budgets of truly high-major programs, nor an endless supply of bad D-I teams close by who are willing to take a check for a beating. So they played smarter schedules and more non-DI teams, and this is the result.

It's not baseless perception that the Mountain West was a better conference than the SEC or ACC this season. It's based almost entirely on how the leagues did in nonconference play, which sets up self-fulfilling situations (good and bad) in league play in terms of RPI. In a league like the Mountain West, where homecourt advantage is so pronounced, it's even more self-fulfilling.

Almost a decade ago, the NCAA made an adjustment to the RPI formula to try to incentivize teams to play more road games. Of course, they screwed up the math such that the new formula rewards "not losing at home" more than it does "winning on the road," at least for what its primary purpose is: sorting teams that may make the NCAAs.

The formula adjustment for Factor I (your winning percentage) now credits you with 0.6 wins for a home win and 1.4 wins for a road victory. Likewise, you get 1.4 home losses for an actual home defeat and 0.6 losses for an away loss. That sounds like a reasonable plan until you realize that the target demographic — NCAA tournament-caliber teams — are all way above .500. As such, when you split two games (.500 overall), you want that impact to be as small as possible on your overall adjusted record, as determined by the RPI formula.

If you win at home and lose the away game, you would get an extra 0.6-0.6 added into your overall adjusted record. If you do it the other way, you get 1.4-1.4 added to your totals. If you are well above .500 overall, like all these NCAA caliber teams are, adding the 1.4-1.4 into the record drags you down more than the 0.6-0.6 does. In simple terms, losing home games (for 1.4 losses in your adjusted Factor I) is the worst thing you can do, and it's way more harmful than adding 1.4 wins to the ledger is helpful.

So the Mountain West compiled a great nonconference mark and then, because very few teams win on the road in that league, they basically supersized the impact of playing only good and decent teams in league play. Throw in the 14 non-DI games and they gamed the RPI formula to a remarkable extent this season. But they did it through smarter scheduling and performance on the court, not through any voodoo or imaginary media agenda that supports smaller leagues. And, honestly, the committee saw through some of it.

[agibson]

Here's the March 18 poll.  (Though I'm pretty sure it didn't appear until at least the 19th.)  Maybe this will be the last of the year?

Update: March 18th, 2013

1.    Gonzaga (31)    31-2    775    1    West Coast
2.    Belmont    26-6    717    3    Ohio Valley
3.    Creighton    27-7    692    4    Missouri Valley
4.    Saint Mary's    27-6    672    2    West Coast
5.    Bucknell    28-5    634    7    Patriot
6.    Middle Tennessee    28-5    626    6    Sun Belt
7.    Stephen F. Austin    27-4    551    5    Southland
8.    Davidson    26-7    546    9    Southern
9.    Valparaiso    26-7    524    10    Horizon
10.    Louisiana Tech    26-6    463    8    WAC
11.    Wichita State    26-8    461    11    Missouri Valley
12.    Montana    25-6    460    13    Big Sky
13.    Akron    26-6    424    14    Mid-American
14.    South Dakota State    25-9    362    17    Summit
15.    Denver    21-9    328    12    WAC
16.    Weber State    26-6    299    15    Big Sky
17.    Ohio    24-9    257    16    Mid-American
18.    BYU    21-11    223    19    West Coast
19.    New Mexico State    24-10    223    22    WAC
20.    Stony Brook    24-7    153    20    America East
21.    Albany    24-10    124    NR    America East
22.    Norfolk State    21-11    89    21    MEAC
23.    Detroit    20-12    88    24    Horizon
24.    Northwestern State    23-8    64    NR    Southland
25.    Florida Gulf Coast    24-10    51    25    Atlantic Sun


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Murray State 36, Pacific 32, Eastern Kentucky 31, Wright State 27, North Dakota State 26, Harvard 20, LIU-Brooklyn 17, Western Illinois 17, Indiana State 13, Evansville 12, Long Beach State 7, Lafayette 5, Northern Iowa 5, Robert Morris 5, College of Charleston 4, Iona 4, James Madison 2, Western Michigan 2, North Carolina Central 1, Southern 1, Utah State 1, Western Kentucky 1

[historyman]

Was there any mention of Florida Gulf Coast in the poll before this poll on March 18? Were they even in the "Others Receiving Votes" section?

[VULB#62]

N/R on March 10 to #25 on March 11.  Never mentioned before March 11.

[valpopal]

Valpo winds up 13th in final Mid-Majors poll. Detroit is 24th.

http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

[agibson]

Passed by Florida Gulf Coast... OK.

Update: April 10th, 2013

1.    Wichita State (30)    30-9    774    11    Missouri Valley
2.    Gonzaga (1)    32-3    745    1    West Coast
3.    Creighton    28-8    709    3    Missouri Valley
4.    Saint Mary's    28-7    673    4    West Coast
5.    Belmont    26-7    622    2    Ohio Valley
6.    Middle Tennessee    28-6    579    6    Sun Belt
7.    Bucknell    28-6    558    5    Patriot
8.    Stephen F. Austin    27-5    538    7    Southland
9.    Davidson    26-8    526    8    Southern
10.    Florida Gulf Coast    26-11    490    25    Atlantic Sun
11.    Louisiana Tech    27-7    426    10    WAC
12.    BYU    24-12    420    18    West Coast
13.    Valparaiso    26-8    411    9    Horizon
14.    Montana    25-7    333    12    Big Sky
15.    Weber State    30-7    331    16    Big Sky
16.    Denver    22-10    326    15    WAC
17.    Akron    26-7    273    13    Mid-American
18.    South Dakota State    25-10    235    14    Summit
19.    Stony Brook    25-8    162    20    America East
20.    Ohio    24-10    153    17    Mid-American
21.    Harvard    20-10    150    NR    Ivy
22.    New Mexico State    24-11    149    19    WAC
23.    Albany    24-11    90    21    America East
24.    Detroit    20-13    75    23    Horizon
25.    Robert Morris    24-11    56    NR    Northeast


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Mercer 43, Northwestern State 36, Pacific 33, Eastern Kentucky 31, Santa Clara 24, Norfolk State 15, Northern Iowa 13, Evansville 12, Indiana State 11, Murray State 10, Lehigh 8, Wright State 8, North Dakota State 7, LIU Brooklyn 6, George Mason 5, James Madison 5, Western Illinois 2, Elon 1, Southern 1.