Horizon League 2014: A look at returnees

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So originally this was to have been a much longer post (and, wh, it'd've pushed a certain one down the front page) but I just kind of jumped the shark.

But inspired by MJ's excellent and helpful post on Comings and Goings, I revived a little bit and am putting it here for your edification.  This is a look at this year based on minutes played last year.  If I cared to go back and do career minutes, well then I'd be a little ridiculous.  Obviously this doesn't count players that will make an impact, whether they be transfers becoming eligible (Brundidge), impact freshmen (Peters), JUCO types (Dauda).  But when it comes to D1, well, I'll leave it to the John Wooden of game-show hosts.


Those of you who are hard-core VU fans and would point out that I should've done this last year, well,


Those of you that would point out that I've never had a statistics course, well, you know what?  I never had a math class above track 2 pre-cal in HS.  So there. 

(But I did ace the math on the SAT & the GRE.  Plus I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express once.)

PREMISE:  Experience is good. 
More experience is better. 
Better players with experience are better than players with experience because obviously.



Obviously WSU has the most returning minutes, by a long shot.  There is a tight group from 2 (CSU) thru 5 (Oakland), but a disparity with how many points per 40 minutes those players returning have scored (this is a simple sum).  Obviously Detroit and VU lost the most, but Detroit returns almost as much as Green Bay!

Well, you say, not all experience is GOOD experience.  What about the heavy minute loggers?  After all, GB's Sykes & Brown logged more minutes than all the returnees for Detroit or Valpo.  Add in Fouse and Mays and that's more minutes than Detroit AND Valpo returning, just in 4 Phoenix.

There are 10 players in the Horizon League who averaged more than 30 mpg last year.  3 of them play for Oakland.  Those three players (Bader, Petros, Mondy), bring almost enough scoring to match a Green Bay team if it had 2 Sykeses and a Brown (or 2 Browns and a Sykes)...now there's a scary thought.  And for all the talk about Green Bay, YSU's Perry and Belin are about the (scoring) equal of Sykes and Brown. 

Cleveland's number of 20+ minute players is equal to WSU's, but their scoring was much higher.  These numbers might appear to be skewed by the injury to Anton Grady (i.e. if he hadn't been injured, everyone else's minutes and points would likely have suffered), but because he's back now, it's fair to count his mpg (27) and his pts/40 (20.3).  This bodes well for the Cleve, as well as returning 7 players who averaged more than 10 mpg. 

Wright State's 9 returnees of 10+ mpg is astounding; Detroit had just 6 players who averaged that many all of last year, and though Valpo also had 9 players last year who did so, obviously only 3 of those are back.  Again, you could make the case that the Darling injury skews those numbers somewhat.  WSU is the only team in the Horizon that didn't even have a 30+ mpg player last year (Arcenaux topped out at 29.9).  This is a product of their system, which skews the pts/40 (but it's simply handy as a stat, not a be-all).

From the looks of this at least, Youngstown is underrated by returning minutes and scoring, coming in 3rd in almost every way you sort these 8 columns. 

Oakland's big 3 are just that--a big 3, as only one other returnee averaged 10 mpg (Dante Williams).  So while they have a core unmatched in this league (#1 in pts per 40 by 30 mpg players) they are thin elsewhere (falling to 4th in 20- and 10-mpg). It will be interesting to see how Bader and Co. adjust (and are adjusted to).

UIC has Hayden Humes, and otherwise stats that look like Valpo's.

Milwaukee has experience (not good) but some.  I mean that girl who dated around in your high school had a lot of experience too--experience getting dumped.  It's scarring, so look for Milwaukee to have a different coach to take them to the next prom.  No wait, terrible analogy, since Milwaukee won't be going to the Dance until the Clinton administration.

(And I mean Chelsea. coldshudder.gif)

So of course it looks drab for Detroit and Valpo in this light, but here's the kicker:  they are 1st and 2nd, respectively, when you look at the quality of points per minute returning (points per 40) over (minutes returning over 40), and are the only 2 teams over a point a minute.  Of course, this has a lot to do with pace of play, so you'd expect this--a rising tide of possessions lifts all scorers.  Green Bay is last (half as many points per minute as Detroit).  So for all the fuss about the big 2 returning, it'll depend on everyone else producing to make them end up top where half of people thought they'd be (or else they'll end up at the bottom where the other half thought).

Here are the top all 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 30 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Perry (YSU) 19.6
3) Brown (GB) 18.43
4) Sykes (GB) 18.38
5) Aaron (UWM) 16.2
6) Mondy (Oak) 15.3
7) Petros (Oak) 14.8
8) Belin (YSU) 14.5
9) Lee (CSU) 13.5
10) Humes (UIC) 12.5

Here are the top 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 20 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Grady (CSU) 20.3
3) Perry (YSU) 19.6
4) Darling (WSU) 18.5
5) Brown (GB) 18.43
6) Sykes (GB) 18.38
7) Forbes (CSU) 18.0
8) Aaron (UWM) 16.2
9) Dority (Valpo) 16.1
10) Mondy (Oak) 15.3

Here are the top 10 returning scorers in points per minute, over 10 mpg played:
1) Bader (Oak) 23.1
2) Grady (CSU) 20.3
3) Perry (YSU) 19.6
4) Darling (WSU) 18.5
5) Brown (GB) 18.43
6) Sykes (GB) 18.38
7) Young (WSU) 17.99
8) Forbes (CSU) 17.95
9) Hain (YSU) 16.5
10) Yoho (WSU) 16.24

And the Nick Shelton Memorial Gunnin' For It Award goes to Stephen Gossard of WSU who played just 15 minutes over 6 games all year, but scored 7 points, for an average pts/40 of 19.2.  Second place goes to Detroit's Olumide Solanke whose 4 points in 9 minutes (over 7 games) would have been 18.5/40 if Coach McCallum had just emptied his bench like a normal compassionate human (er...well, at the beginning of the game, since it's per 40 : )

I have all kinds of raw data in an Excel sheet, so if you want to find some fun numbers (rebounding?) just let me know.

[bbtds]

If I cared to go back and do career minutes, well then I'd be a little ridiculous.

This has never stopped you before. I believe that you no longer have the time. Let's not make excuses now.