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Looking to December

Started by wh, November 30, 2014, 11:06:58 AM

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Predict our December record:

7-0
4 (13.3%)
6-1
20 (66.7%)
5-2
6 (20%)
4-3
0 (0%)
3-4
0 (0%)
2-5
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 30

Voting closed: December 03, 2014, 11:06:57 AM

talksalot

I went 6-1... but I'm glad I don't have to say which one... gotta tell you... I hate playing IPFW...but with the game in their campus-gym, I like it more.... just something about that FW Coliseum that just irks me.  (SUU)

wh

Reminder - You have until tomorrow (Wed.) at 11a CT to cast your vote.

Kyle321n

I'm sticking to a 1 loss month again. New Mexico is good.
Inane Tweeter, Valpo Season Ticket holder, Beer Enjoyer

wh

Final call for any last minute voters.  The poll automatically locks at 11a.


Kyle321n

Quote from: covufan on December 04, 2014, 11:22:30 AM
A byproduct of winning 8 of nine is that we are now favored to win most of our future games:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=267615

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections



Wow, Massey has us going 28-3 and RealTime and TeamRankings has us going 29-1. KenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

Here's KenPom's (I'd link to it, but it's subscription based.)


The little numbers between the score prediction and the % of victory is how many possessions are projected for the match up.
Inane Tweeter, Valpo Season Ticket holder, Beer Enjoyer

EddieCabot

Quote from: Kyle321n on December 04, 2014, 01:23:29 PMKenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

From your screen cap, KenPom is predicting 11-5 in league and 24-7 overall.  RPI Forecast is predicting only 6 total losses (12-4 league record), so it's pretty similar. 

I don't know much about how these all work, but I assume that they're still moving around a bit this early in the season.

Kyle321n

Quote from: EddieCabot on December 04, 2014, 02:41:07 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on December 04, 2014, 01:23:29 PMKenPom has us losing 3 more games, which seems most realistic of these projections.

From your screen cap, KenPom is predicting 11-5 in league and 24-7 overall.  RPI Forecast is predicting only 6 total losses (12-4 league record), so it's pretty similar. 

I don't know much about how these all work, but I assume that they're still moving around a bit this early in the season.

This is from the W-L they have. Their overall uses the chance to win and adds it all up to figure out all that jazz. KenPom has us winning 493% of the 600% of our OOC games and 1110% of the 1600% of our conference games which is why he has us at 24-7 (11-5).
Inane Tweeter, Valpo Season Ticket holder, Beer Enjoyer