All Comes Down to HL Tourney in DETROIT

[UConnHoops]

That loss should officially knock Valpo out of any At-Large consideration. So with the HL Tourney in Oakland's back yard things will be extremely tough as it relates to getting a bid. Oregon State has a shot to finish top 4 in the Pac-12 so that will be a quality win OOC.

UConn also will be facing an uphill battle with a loss tomorrow against Texas. UConn and Valpo so far have to be considered big time under performing teams.

[talksalot]

OH... I dunno... most of us thought this might be a loss... and we have quality wins on the road at OSU and Rhode Island... Wins on the road at Oakland, Detroit and Milwaukee will certainly help the cause... 26-6 ...... allowing for 2 conference losses and one in the HL tournament... borderline...27-5... good chance...   

First things ... First.

UCONN will have a harder time explaining their OOC scheduling... AND we wish you well on your FIRST ROAD GAME OF THE YEAR... At Texas tomorrow night.

Home Wins over
Maine #310
New Hampshire #218
Furman #299
Michigan #70 (nice Neutral site win in the Bahamas)
Sacred Heart #330
UMass-Lowell #269
Central Connecticut State #351
Ohio State #85

Quality Losses:  Syracuse, Gonzaga (both in the Bahamas) and Maryland (in NYC); don't have any Un-quality losses, and you have NO road games to consider.

Valpo has wins over
IPFW #87
IONA #174
Rhody - road #129
Oregon State - road #39
Belmont #73
Indiana State - road #178
Chicago State - road #274
Missouri State #240

Losses:  Oregon #19- Road, Ball Sate #289 - Road, Belmont #73 - Road

[agibson]

most of us thought this might be a loss...

Even when it's predicted that Valpo are four point favorites... that's, what, 35%, 40% chance of a loss?  A win was certainly nothing to be taken for granted.  No kind of a sure thing, even if Valpo played reasonably well.  Nobody should have expected to end the regular season on two losses, and @Belmont was certainly one of the handful of likeliest losses.

Can't hang our heads too much here.

[a3uge]

That loss should officially knock Valpo out of any At-Large consideration. So with the HL Tourney in Oakland's back yard things will be extremely tough as it relates to getting a bid. Oregon State has a shot to finish top 4 in the Pac-12 so that will be a quality win OOC.

UConn also will be facing an uphill battle with a loss tomorrow against Texas. UConn and Valpo so far have to be considered big time under performing teams.

Come in to the season and tell everyone Valpo would finish 10-3 OOC and see how many of us would qualify that as "big time underperforming." The expectations of this team have been pretty insane this year. Even with the loss, Valpo has an RPI of 30, which is 60 positions lower than the next HL team, Detroit. Compare this team at this point to any other Crusader team in the past and you won't be able to find a better performing team. I know that still isn't good enough for some people, but I feel the at large expectations were always very unrealistic.

[justducky]

That loss should officially knock Valpo out of any At-Large consideration.

Agree. I expected a sweep of Belmont and they dictated how we would have to play their game. Unfortunately Oakland could also dictate our style and personnel.

Might be time to lock the coaching staff in a hot, cramped, stuffy room (we can pipe in cigarette smoke if it would help) so they can rethink our objectives. Maybe the HL will be presented with a whole new look?

[justducky]

This loss almost feels liberating! Now we enter HL play only needing to secure either the 1 or 2 seed (we should receive an NIT bid regardless).

So what aspects of our game need improvement? Should we pound it inside and let Vashil work on his offense? Sure. More minutes for Lexus and Max? Absolutely! With nothing to lose maybe we can free up Jubril for some wide open 3's. How about some full court pressure? Did I hear someone say platoon?

Pandoras Box has been opened and that may mean unleashed ills for the HL. Lets dedicate the month of January to Dr Frankenstein like experimentation!   

[nkvu]

That loss should officially knock Valpo out of any At-Large consideration. So with the HL Tourney in Oakland's back yard things will be extremely tough as it relates to getting a bid. Oregon State has a shot to finish top 4 in the Pac-12 so that will be a quality win OOC.

UConn also will be facing an uphill battle with a loss tomorrow against Texas. UConn and Valpo so far have to be considered big time under performing teams.

Come in to the season and tell everyone Valpo would finish 10-3 OOC and see how many of us would qualify that as "big time underperforming." The expectations of this team have been pretty insane this year. Even with the loss, Valpo has an RPI of 30, which is 60 positions lower than the next HL team, Detroit. Compare this team at this point to any other Crusader team in the past and you won't be able to find a better performing team. I know that still isn't good enough for some people, but I feel the at large expectations were always very unrealistic.

I don't think the expectations were unrealistic. Is it unreasonable to expect a team that returns 98 percent of its scoring to be better the following year?  Yet in the out of conference part of the schedule who has really shown consistent, significant improvement over last year?  Vasill was greatly improved last year. This year not so much. Alec still disappears for significant portions of games though his stats always look good. Carter still can't seem to finish a fast break, often getting blocked at the rim or trying an alley oop that ends up in a turnover.  D Walker has been a non factor this whole season. Was he playing over his head last year?  Skara has not shown anything more this year than last.  Hamnick has shown flashes of brilliance but also ineptitude.  T Walker may make a big step this year but hasn't been healthy.  Same for E Vic. So once again we have a good mid major team that has to win it's conference tournament to get into the dance with at best a 12 seed more likely a 13.  And with Oakland and Detroit having the advantage of the tournament in their backyard Valpo has to really play a lot better or this could be an incredibly dissapointing season.

[a3uge]

That loss should officially knock Valpo out of any At-Large consideration. So with the HL Tourney in Oakland's back yard things will be extremely tough as it relates to getting a bid. Oregon State has a shot to finish top 4 in the Pac-12 so that will be a quality win OOC.

UConn also will be facing an uphill battle with a loss tomorrow against Texas. UConn and Valpo so far have to be considered big time under performing teams.

Come in to the season and tell everyone Valpo would finish 10-3 OOC and see how many of us would qualify that as "big time underperforming." The expectations of this team have been pretty insane this year. Even with the loss, Valpo has an RPI of 30, which is 60 positions lower than the next HL team, Detroit. Compare this team at this point to any other Crusader team in the past and you won't be able to find a better performing team. I know that still isn't good enough for some people, but I feel the at large expectations were always very unrealistic.

I don't think the expectations were unrealistic. Is it unreasonable to expect a team that returns 98 percent of its scoring to be better the following year?  Yet in the out of conference part of the schedule who has really shown consistent, significant improvement over last year?  Vasill was greatly improved last year. This year not so much. Alec still disappears for significant portions of games though his stats always look good. Carter still can't seem to finish a fast break, often getting blocked at the rim or trying an alley oop that ends up in a turnover.  D Walker has been a non factor this whole season. Was he playing over his head last year?  Skara has not shown anything more this year than last.  Hamnick has shown flashes of brilliance but also ineptitude.  T Walker may make a big step this year but hasn't been healthy.  Same for E Vic. So once again we have a good mid major team that has to win it's conference tournament to get into the dance with at best a 12 seed more likely a 13.  And with Oakland and Detroit having the advantage of the tournament in their backyard Valpo has to really play a lot better or this could be an incredibly dissapointing season.

We are better than last year, at least, as of now. We have a better RPI, expected RPI, kpom, bpi, sagarin rating, you name it. We have an additional loss coming into the conference season, but our SOS is much harder this year.

The key to our success has been defense. It's not very glamorous, but aside from tonight, it's been fantastic.

Pretty much every player has improved dramatically on defense. Maybe it changed a bit after this game, but every single player has defense ratings below what Vashil finished with in his DPOY season. This is why we have an RPI significantly lower than last years, and why we're picked to finish with an average seed of 11.17 in 24/24 brackets on bracketmatrix. Not sure how you get to a 13 seed if we win conference, but I'm guessing it involves 5 or 6 conference losses.

Going player to player, Peters had actually improved his true shooting and effective fg %. He's also scoring more points, rebounds, and steals both per game and per 40 min. His FT rate is also up dramatically. His defensive rating has improved, while is offensive rating is down a point.

Carter clearly hasnt been as good offensively, but again, his defense has improved. Darien also has been bad shooting the ball (understatement), but has been great defensively and is rebounding significantly better from last year. Vashil has clearly struggled, but is still 6th in the country in defensive rating.

Jubril is scoring more and is shooting better - his offensive rating is up by over 10 and his defensive rating has improved as well.

Tevonn has clearly made a huge jump - his PER is up to 25 from 17. He's shooting 43% from 3 vs 34% last year.

Skara has improved his effective fg% and ts%, is scoring more points, and has a better offensive and defensive rating.

So I wouldn't say there's a lack of improvement, or a big regression, because clearly there's areas of each players games where there has been significant advancement.

[justducky]

I don't think the expectations were unrealistic.

Neither do I. We seem to have a team where everybody plus has returned but our overall improvement on offense has been minimal. Its a real puzzlement 

Might be time to lock the coaching staff in a hot, cramped, stuffy room (we can pipe in cigarette smoke if it would help) so they can rethink our objectives.

Since expanded creativity is our objective perhaps Marlboro should not be our first choice.

[talksalot]

Lastl year we were 10-2 in the first 12 games... and 10-2 in the second 12 games...(OT loss at OAK and 51-50 loss at Green Bay)...

the next 4 games will tell us a lot about this team.
H- UIC
A- OAK
A- UDM
H- MIL

[Just Sayin]

For those claiming that this is the best Valpo team ever, are you satisfied that their record is where it should be assuming it is the best team ever?

[a3uge]

For those claiming that this is the best Valpo team ever, are you satisfied that their record is where it should be assuming it is the best team ever?

Which Valpo team was better at this point in the year?

[agibson]

and has a better offensive and defensive rating.

Maybe I've asked you before, but where are you getting you individual offensive and defensive ratings from?

[a3uge]

and has a better offensive and defensive rating.

Maybe I've asked you before, but where are you getting you individual offensive and defensive ratings from?

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/valparaiso/

[justducky]

For those claiming that this is the best Valpo team ever, are you satisfied that their record is where it should be assuming it is the best team ever?

Given our SOS and number of true road games !0-3 is not bad and I doubt if the sweet-16 bunch would have done as well. One thing those guys could do better was score inside. Got to figure out ways to get Vashil in the scoring column. Not only are we now feeling the loss of Smits for his spot minutes but Vashil's expected offensive improvement was derailed with Derrik's injury.