February Prediction Poll

[wh]

Following a successful 9-1 January, the Crusaders finish conference play with 8 games in February (4 home/4 away):

FEB 6 at UIC
FEB 11 Northern Kentucky
FEB 13 Wright State
FEB 16 at Cleveland State
FEB 19 Oakland
FEB 21 Detroit
FEB 26 at Milwaukee
FEB 28 at Green Bay

What will our February record be?

Reminder: All members of the board are welcome to vote and post comments (Crusader fans and fans of other teams). 

[VULB#62]

It would be great to run the table, but that last run of 4 games is a killer. I think we drop at least one of those.

[Kyle321n]

Two games concern me, @UWM and vs. Oakland, in that order. I voted we run the table, but I wouldn't be surprised if we dropped one of those games. If we drop 2, will be shocked.

[a3uge]

There's only been 1 team to finish with 1 loss or better in the Horizon, and that was the Butler NCAA finalist team in 2010 (they ran the table). So this is historic stuff, although admittedly in one of the weakest seasons for the Horizon.

[VUfan]

This team has all the tools to run the table and knock over a few Chairs in Detroit 10-0 so much for the Horizon. on to NCAA's!   

[bbtds]

I'm going for the full monty.............uh, well.............you know what I mean. I think there will be some close games and there might be a stinker at Cleve State that we barely pull out a win but I have a suspicion that Valpo plays extremely well on the Wisco road trip despite being a poor road team at times.

Eight and Ohhh baby!

[historyman]

I think we lose one of the last eight. Either at Milwaukee or Green Bay or at home against Detroit (due to a bad game).

[justducky]

Somebody will beat us but it will not be Wright St. UWM and Green Bay might be the best candidates.

[valpotx]

8-0

Only worry is at Milwaukee

[wh]

bump...

[bbtds]

bump...

! No longer available

[vu84v2]

I think that Valpo wins them all.

[HailVU2014]

I voted 7-1, mostly on account of the Wisconsin Road Trip at the very end.

Milwaukee: I don't have any stats to support this, but I feel like we always get off to a slow start at Milwaukee over the past 5-6 years. While we have won all of the games at Milwaukee in the Bryce Drew era, I can see Jeter, Tiby, and others pulling it together for this game, especially since they get us first in the weekend before UIC. In addition, watching some of these Milwaukee home games recently, it seems that they are gaining lots of support from the students, which I think is great for them and could be even more of a challenge for us, especially since the game will be on ESPN2/ESPNU.

Green Bay: Wow, don't we hate playing at the Resch Center?? (At least since I started at Valpo...)

Here's our results at the Resch Center from the last year of Homer to today: (All results are against Green Bay unless noted otherwise)

2015: Jan 23- Lost 51-50
2014 (HL Tourney): Mar 7 v. Milwaukee- Lost 74-57
2014: Feb 20- Lost 67-53
2013: Mar 2- Win 75-56
(Note: We then played Green Bay 7 days later at the ARC in the HL Semifinals and needed Rowdy's Buzzer Beater to win...)
2012: Jan 26- Lost 75-60
2011: Feb 21- Lost 81-80 (OT)

We just don't seem to have it together once we take I-43 North out of Milwaukee. And this year, with the new coach at Green Bay and having Green Bay as our last game of the season, this game doesn't sit well with me at the moment.


Then, here's some food for thought for the board: If we were to win the first 6 games of February, we would have the Horizon League Regular Season Crown all wrapped up before we walked onto the bus for Wisconsin. Would we play more conservative in Wisconsin and play more of our secondary players and give Alec, Vashil, etc. less minutes and more rest for the HL Tourney? I think we would play with the same intensity at least to start each game, but I can see some quick subs in the first half depending on the flow of the game. Although I'm sure any serious Top-25 consideration could also change this mindset as well...

Although this exercise is fun, we still have to have a one game at a time mentality... BEAT UIC!

[Kyle321n]

Milwaukee: I don't have any stats to support this, but I feel like we always get off to a slow start at Milwaukee over the past 5-6 years. While we have won all of the games at Milwaukee in the Bryce Drew era, I can see Jeter, Tiby, and others pulling it together for this game, especially since they get us first in the weekend before UIC. In addition, watching some of these Milwaukee home games recently, it seems that they are gaining lots of support from the students, which I think is great for them and could be even more of a challenge for us, especially since the game will be on ESPN2/ESPNU.

Well see now I have to look to see what we've done in Milwaukee on KenPom since he breaks the 2 halves up in 4 quarters and I can look at the charts to see how we do.

2015: Losing 12-7 in Q1, didn't take the lead until 9 minutes left in the second half.
2014: Winning 13-6 in Q1
2013: Winning 14-5 in Q1 (Entered with an 85% chance of winning against a 4-13 team)
2012: Losing 6-4 in Q1, it was a back and forth game we won 55-52. WP wasn't in our favor until 4 mins to go.
2011: Tied 12-12 in Q1. We lost 79-76, here's the WP chart
2011 HL Tourny: Losing 11-8 in Q1. Again we lost 70-63
2010: Losing 14-8. We lost 85-82

That's as far back as it goes, but we don't score in Q1 against Milwaukee. If we scored at the same pace we do in Q1 we'd average 39 points a game. They certainly limit us at the start of the game and this is the game that concerns me the most on the schedule.

[HailVU2014]

Well see now I have to look to see what we've done in Milwaukee on KenPom since he breaks the 2 halves up in 4 quarters and I can look at the charts to see how we do.

2015: Losing 12-7 in Q1, didn't take the lead until 9 minutes left in the second half.
2014: Winning 13-6 in Q1
2013: Winning 14-5 in Q1 (Entered with an 85% chance of winning against a 4-13 team)
2012: Losing 6-4 in Q1, it was a back and forth game we won 55-52. WP wasn't in our favor until 4 mins to go.
2011: Tied 12-12 in Q1. We lost 79-76, here's the WP chart
2011 HL Tourny: Losing 11-8 in Q1. Again we lost 70-63
2010: Losing 14-8. We lost 85-82

That's as far back as it goes, but we don't score in Q1 against Milwaukee. If we scored at the same pace we do in Q1 we'd average 39 points a game. They certainly limit us at the start of the game and this is the game that concerns me the most on the schedule.

Thanks for looking this information up! Now I know I'm not delusional about how we play in Milwaukee.

Just out of curiosity, how bad was our start against Milwaukee in the 2014 HL Tourney at the Resch Center? I'm almost afraid to know...

[Kyle321n]

Well see now I have to look to see what we've done in Milwaukee on KenPom since he breaks the 2 halves up in 4 quarters and I can look at the charts to see how we do.

2015: Losing 12-7 in Q1, didn't take the lead until 9 minutes left in the second half.
2014: Winning 13-6 in Q1
2013: Winning 14-5 in Q1 (Entered with an 85% chance of winning against a 4-13 team)
2012: Losing 6-4 in Q1, it was a back and forth game we won 55-52. WP wasn't in our favor until 4 mins to go.
2011: Tied 12-12 in Q1. We lost 79-76, here's the WP chart
2011 HL Tourny: Losing 11-8 in Q1. Again we lost 70-63
2010: Losing 14-8. We lost 85-82

That's as far back as it goes, but we don't score in Q1 against Milwaukee. If we scored at the same pace we do in Q1 we'd average 39 points a game. They certainly limit us at the start of the game and this is the game that concerns me the most on the schedule.

Thanks for looking this information up! Now I know I'm not delusional about how we play in Milwaukee.

Just out of curiosity, how bad was our start against Milwaukee in the 2014 HL Tourney at the Resch Center? I'm almost afraid to know...

19-9... They got off to a 9-0 start if you don't remember and it seemed to get worse from there.

[hailcrusaders]

Delusional? I'm as nervous about the game in Milwaukee as anyone, but I don't think they've beaten us IN Milwaukee in several years.
'12 they were good but we beat them in the last few minutes.
'13 they were terrible and we pounded them at the Klotsche.
'14 all our bigs fouled out but we managed to win by like 10.
'15 they gave us a run for our $ but we beat them late again.

[valpocleveland]

7-1, loss at GB or UWM

Excited to see this team in person for the first time this year in Cleveland and Milwaukee!!

[HailVU2014]

Delusional? I'm as nervous about the game in Milwaukee as anyone, but I don't think they've beaten us IN Milwaukee in several years.
'12 they were good but we beat them in the last few minutes.
'13 they were terrible and we pounded them at the Klotsche.
'14 all our bigs fouled out but we managed to win by like 10.
'15 they gave us a run for our $ but we beat them late again.

We have taken care of business in Milwaukee for the first four years of the Bryce Drew era and I hope that continues this year for year 5! I was just glad I wasn't delusional and making things up about us getting off to slow starts in Milwaukee and Kyle321n proved my point. That's all.

[hailcrusaders]

Delusional? I'm as nervous about the game in Milwaukee as anyone, but I don't think they've beaten us IN Milwaukee in several years.
'12 they were good but we beat them in the last few minutes.
'13 they were terrible and we pounded them at the Klotsche.
'14 all our bigs fouled out but we managed to win by like 10.
'15 they gave us a run for our $ but we beat them late again.

We have taken care of business in Milwaukee for the first four years of the Bryce Drew era and I hope that continues this year for year 5! I was just glad I wasn't delusional and making things up about us getting off to slow starts in Milwaukee and Kyle321n proved my point. That's all.

I see what you're saying. Let's make it five in a row!

[bbtds]

I was just glad I wasn't delusional and making things up

I say that almost every morning.

[wh]

1 day left