2/16 - @ Cleveland State at Quicken Loans Arena

agibson · February 17, 2016, 12:08:27 PM

Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 10:47:42 AM
http://horizonleague.blogspot.com/2016/02/hlmbb-1-seed-possibilities-valpo.html

Impressive! And, despite what I said about leaving the Valpo multi-loss scenarios to you, I can't resist poking at a puzzle.

Isn't there at least one scenario where Wright State gets the #1 seed out of a three-way 13-5 tie?

I'm imagining Milwaukee finishing alone in 4th with an 11-7 record, and then WSU being the only team of the three (Valpo, Oakland, WSU) to sweep Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has to win out, Green Bay has to lose a couple, and Detroit has to lose one. But, maybe that can all happen without messing up the there-way 13-5 tie?

StlVUFan · February 17, 2016, 12:49:46 PM

I have to check later to see if I covered it, but off the top of my head, Valpo would have to beat Oakland on Friday for that to be possible.

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StlVUFan · February 17, 2016, 12:54:54 PM

Also I think Milwaukee would have to be alone in 4th. Otherwise Oakland would still have it because of their sweep of GB. I can't check this right now, so there's a chance I'm wrong on this part.

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agibson · February 17, 2016, 12:55:17 PM

Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 12:49:46 PMI have to check later to see if I covered it, but off the top of my head, Valpo would have to beat Oakland on Friday for that to be possible.

That's right. It's the 13-5 scenario where every team has swept one other. Valpo sweeps Oakland, Oakland sweeps Wright State, Wright State sweeps Valpo. They're all 2-2 in the three-way tie for first.

The additional losses, to bring it to 5, would be: WSU losses to UIC, Detroit, GB; Valpo losses to Detroit, Milwaukee, GB; Oakland losses to YSU, NKY, Milwaukee.

And, if Milwaukee ended up alone in 4th (11-7, without spoiling any of the above; with Detroit picking up at least one more loss and GB two), then Wright State gets the #1 seed. (And Valpo the #3, presumably, almost certainly losing on the tie-breaker with Oakland).

I think it's possible, but I've not checked everything.

And yeah, I've not checked other related cases (is there more than this one?). But, I think it might work if Milwaukee's alone in 4th.

StlVUFan · February 17, 2016, 01:07:49 PM

I think it is too, as long a Milwaukee is all alone in 4th.

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Kyle321n · February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PM

Quote from: StlVUFan on February 17, 2016, 01:07:49 PM
I think it is too, as long a Milwaukee is all alone in 4th.

If Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee) Because we'd have to go 0-3 against Green Bay, Detroit and Milwaukee and they are the only ones who can be legitamately in 4th we'd be in second only in the Milwaukee situation. If it's Detroit, then it goes to Oakland (would be 2-0 in the scenario) leaving us in the 3 seed and I already laid out Green Bay above. It's not possible to have a 3 way tie at the top and have YSU in 4th place, they would need to lose to WSU and that would give them 10 losses eliminating them from 4th.

agibson · February 17, 2016, 01:41:52 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)

How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?

Kyle321n · February 17, 2016, 01:45:44 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 01:41:52 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)

How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?

We'd be 2-0 vs Oakland

agibson · February 17, 2016, 02:09:08 PM

Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:45:44 PM
Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 01:41:52 PM
Quote from: Kyle321n on February 17, 2016, 01:29:51 PMIf Milwaukee is alone in 4th and we're 2-2 vs WSU and Oakland that's alright for us as WSU is 2-0 vs Milwaukee. That'd land us in the 2 seed as we'd have the tie break against Oakland (1-1 vs Milwaukee, us 1-1 vs. Milwaukee)

How does that give us the tie-breaker over Oakland?
We'd be 2-0 vs Oakland

Ah, right, of course. It may be a hair too early/complicated to pursue this with any confidence! At least without a lot of time and care invested. But, hey, it's part of the end-of-season fun.

StlVUFan · February 17, 2016, 06:51:22 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 17, 2016, 12:08:27 PMIsn't there at least one scenario where Wright State gets the #1 seed out of a three-way 13-5 tie?

I see what you're saying now. What I wrote insisted that Wright State had to have a better record than Oakland. I believe I did miss the case you mentioned.