A look back at the 2016 season

[VULB#62]

Now that 2016 is in the books, I thought it would be good to open up a thread on our  assessment of where when program stands after year 3 under Dave Cecchini.

I pulled together a quick spread (click to enlarge) in comparing the 2015 season with the now completed 2016 season.  On both sides of the ball we have shown improvement.  Obviously 4 wins vs. only one win a year ago stands out.  However, in Points For (PF) and Points Allowed (PA) we also showed noticeable improvement. On a macro scale, we scored about a TD more per game and on defense we surrendered what amounts to a TD and a FG less per game than last year.  That swing can be seen in the more competitive series of scores throughout the schedule.

On top of that, much of the team is returning on both sides of the ball. Some sophomores and freshmen have worked their way into substantial playing time.  Redshirt Jrs. returning for a 5th year, of course are a question mark.

More thoughts?

[talksalot]

Sagarin ratings on the 2016 opponents.... with Alabama for a comparison...

1   Alabama   105.09   10   0
107   Illinois State   58.41   6   5
206   Sacred Heart   35.85   6   4
238   Marist   21.65   5   5
239   Jacksonville   20.72   4   5
244   Morehead State   18.97   3   7
246   Campbell   17.35   5   4
247   Stetson   16.77   4   6
248   Butler   14.62   4   7
250   Valparaiso   12.95   4   7
252   Davidson   2.43   2   8

[usc4valpo]

Based on Sagarin, the Tide would be favored over Valpo by 91 points at Brown Field. I wonder what Phyllis from Mulga would say about that after a few packs of Marlboros.

[VULB#62]

Sagarin ratings on the 2016 opponents.... with Alabama for a comparison...

1   Alabama   105.09   10   0
107   Illinois State   58.41   6   5
206   Sacred Heart   35.85   6   4o
238   Marist   21.65   5   5
239   Jacksonville   20.72   4   5
244   Morehead State   18.97   3   7
246   Campbell   17.35   5   4
247   Stetson   16.77   4   6
248   Butler   14.62   4   7
250   Valparaiso   12.95   4   7
252   Davidson   2.43   2   8

We didn't play Marist or Campbell. We did play USD and that's not on the list nor are Dayton and Drake who we did play. Could you modify the post cuz it's good info.

[talksalot]

OK, here's the full Pioneer League Sagarin ratings

166  San Diego            AA =  46.71    9   1   21.80
200  Dayton               AA =  37.17    9   2   23.25
231  Drake                AA =  25.93    6   4   26.03
238  Marist               AA =  21.65    5   5   25.37
239  Jacksonville         AA =  20.72    4   5   25.61
244  Morehead State       AA =  18.97    3   7   25.25
246  Campbell             AA =  17.35    5   4   18.28
247  Stetson              AA =  16.77    4   6   25.25
248  Butler               AA =  14.62    4   7   24.97
250  Valparaiso           AA =  12.95    4   7   26.98
252  Davidson             AA =   2.43    2   8   21.66

[VULB#62]

Kind of weird seeing a 3 win Morehead above a 5 win Campbell.  I can see the pecking the order for the first 3 though.

[usc4valpo]

so if I gave Cecchini an end of year performance review, I would say Successful. The team performed as expected.

[VU2624]

I saw next year's schedule at quick glance and this is from my recollection. First three games are Montana, Duquesne and Trinity Intl. They may all be on the road. The Dukes beat Dayton, Jacksonville and Sacred Heart pretty handily this past season and tied for the Northeast Conference championship. They lost to Youngstown, Kennesaw State (of the Big South) and Saint Francis (PA). SFU gets the playoff spot because of their win over Duquense. Wasn't a big year for Montana but they are highly likely to be a bit out of reach for Valpo however the players will love the trip.

PFL opponents don't include San Diego and Davidson. It does include Campbell and Marist. I think those were the only switchouts. Campbell's games, should not count at all for PFL competition. Becoming a scholarship program should preclude their games from counting across the board in the standings. Money will probably be allocated mostly to Freshman but the potential is there to provide athletic aid to some currently rostered players and transfers.

edit: Duquesne is at Brown Field in 2017

[VULB#62]

Thanks for the 2017 update 2624.  Do we know how many front liners the Dukes will lose to graduation?  Hopefully quite a few as, like PFL teams, NEC teams depend heavily on experienced upper classmen to reach the top of the their league.  If Duquesne is coming here in 2017, we'll probably go there in '18. 

St. Francis U (PA) goes to the NCAA playoff from the NEC. Montana beat SFU, at the beginning of what wound up to be a 6-5 season, 41-31.  All 5 UM loses were in the Big Sky.  That NEVER happens to the Griz. They usually beat Montana State even when both teams are in the FCS top 10.  But they lost to them at the end of the season. 

Here's a little more detail on the stuff you mentioned.  RE: Duquesne schedule
Lost to YSU 10-45 (Max scholarship FCS - Missouri Valley FB Conference)
Beat Dayton 34-20 (Non-scholarship PFL)
Lost to Kennesaw State 28-36 (Max scholarship FCS - Big South)
Beat Jacksonville 54-35(Non-scholarship FCS - PFL)
Lost to SFU 10-14 (Partial-scholarship FCS - NEC)
Beat SHU 31-10 (Partial-scholarship FCS - NEC)

St. Francis U won the NEC but lost to Wagner in the season final 24-31.

Without in-depth analysis, the sniff test tells me we could be similar to St. Francis in Missoula, and also see a similar Duquesne result as the St. Francis/Duquesne score -- both will be losses (but pretty competitive).  I'd add that Montana has few mediocre years and will be stronger in '17. But so will we -- hopefully. I will say that the  margin will be more like 14 than 10.

Regarding Campbell, I posted a previous message where I agreed with you on Campbell not counting in the standings.  As I mentioned previously, as well, I think the PFL should give us another game (a 12th game) and we should pick up Davidson again. It would be good for both VU and Davidson to continue to play as both are in the bottom third of the league.

BTW I did not mean to disrespect TIU by not mentioning them, but I have to assume we will have a win there next fall.

[VULB#62]

John Mutka posted a nice year end article about the future of the team.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/sports/ct-ptb-john-mutka-column-st-1121-20161120-story.html

Here is the text if you can't make the link work:

Ringing the victory bell was a joyous way to ring out Valparaiso University's football season. Now the Crusaders can look forward to doing it more often in 2017.  Virtually their entire offense returns from a 4-7 season, their best finish in three years under coach Dave Cecchini. They capped it with a victory over favored Jacksonville, relying on a depth chart crammed with 35 underclassmen and just one senior .

Four special team standouts will also return, starting with freshman Bailey Gessinger. He scored on kickoff returns of 89 and 85 yards, freeing Jarrett Morgan to lead the Crusaders in rushing and all-purpose yardage.

In a loss at Dayton, which finished second in the Pioneer League, VU's youth movement bubbled up with freshman running backs Austin Petrie, Kyle Cartales and Cody Boxrucker, who combined for 151 yards on 35 carries.  "Petrie came out of nowhere in his first action," said Cecchini, noting the rookie's 76-yard output. "It was impressive against a strong team."  The outburst was timely since Morgan missed that game with a concussion. Kartales wound up as VU's No. 2 rusher for the year and Boxrucker led the team with seven touchdowns.

"We've got 99 per cent of our offense back," said Cecchini, starting with quarterback Jimmy Seewald, a strong candidate for PFL Rookie of the Year. "He's got the stats to back it up."  Two touchdown passes against Jacksonville boosted Seewald's season total to 13. The talented freshman completed 57.4 per cent of his passes for 1,443 yards. He crammed for the job with Ryan Clarke hampered by injuries.

"We ran some complicated schemes, but we didn't have to shrink the playbook much because Jimmy handled it pretty well," Cecchini said. "We had some different wrinkles ... the Wildcat formation ... We threw some curveballs."  Seewald's favorite target was junior Frank Catrine, who shook off elbow and shoulder problems to catch 42 passes for 496 yards and rush for 128 yards —most delivered on a 72-yard touchdown run against Jacksonville.

"We made great strides on offense," said Cecchini, who praised center Jack Jarnigan, guard Tom Schofield and tackle Shannon Taliaferro. The Crusaders gave up only 14 sacks.  Valparaiso's ability to hang onto the football was outstanding. Running backs went 10 straight games without a turnover after coughing up one on opening day. "Leading the nation in fewest fumbles is a testament to our backfield," Cecchini said. "I'm really proud of that."

Thanks to turnover machine Joey Diaz-Martinez, who stepped up when J.J. Nunes suffered an early season-ending injury, the Crusaders picked off 13 passes. Diaz-Martinez's fumble recovery and sixth interception set up two TDs against Jacksonville.  Losing Nunes early was a blow, but the VU defensive leader will return if he is granted a medical redshirt

Defensively, the Crusaders gave up more yardage than last year, but sophomore linebacker Drew Snouffer and free safety Kellan Hughes stepped up. Snouffer finished with 102 tackles and Hughes ranked first in solos with 41.

Picked as preseason bottom feeders, the Crusaders came within 22 seconds of going 4-4 in the PFL. Morehead State's 29-26 victory prevented their best finish since VU's championship season in 2003.  "There were some frustrating losses, but I think we turned the corner," Cecchini said. "We're not an elite team yet, but I felt like we closed the gap."

Note: Northwest Indiana players who saw action were left guard Eric Rentschler (Highland), tight end Martin Petruf (Whiting), linebacker Dylan Johnson and wide receiver Chris Orlich (both Valparaiso).

[usc4valpo]

Valpo is improving in football, and Cecchini's job is not in jeopardy. The bar needs to be raised next year, and I believe with all the potential returnees a 6-5 record should be the goal.

[VULB#62]

A lot depends on our schedule.  We lose USD (a sure L) and Davidson (a sure W).  We pick up Marist and Campbell -- both trend to Ls as their programs have continued to gain strength at a pace faster than ours.  That's especially true of Campbell who will have, at a minimum, a freshman recruiting class on FB scholarship. 

Here's the way I see it unfolding:
   Montana (L)
   Duquesne (L)
   TIU (W)
   Dayton (L)
   Drake (L)
   Butler (Toss Up shading W)
   Marist (Toss up shading L)
   Campbell (Toss up)
   Jacksonville (Toss-up)
   Stetson (Toss up)
   Morehead (W)

That's 4 sure losses, 2 sure wins and 5 toss-ups

I would be pleased to win 3 of the 5 toss-up games and come out with a 5-6 record (4 PFL wins) in year 4 of the program. The last time we won 5 total games was 2007.  The last time we won 4 PFL games in a season was............ NEVER.

[vu72]

A lot depends on our schedule.  We lose USD (a sure L) and Davidson (a sure W).  We pick up Marist and Campbell -- both trend to Ls as their programs have continued to gain strength at a pace faster than ours.  That's especially true of Campbell who will have, at a minimum, a freshman recruiting class on FB scholarship. 

Here's the way I see it unfolding:
   Montana (L)
   Duquesne (L)
   TIU (W)
   Dayton (L)
   Drake (L)
   Butler (Toss Up shading W)
   Marist (Toss up shading L)
   Campbell (Toss up)
   Jacksonville (Toss-up)
   Stetson (Toss up)
   Morehead (W)

That's 4 sure losses, 2 sure wins and 5 toss-ups

I would be pleased to win 3 of the 5 toss-up games and come out with a 5-6 record (4 PFL wins) in year 4 of the program. The last time we won 5 total games was 2007.  The last time we won 4 PFL games in a season was............ NEVER.

Not so fast!!  2003:  4 wins (if you count the title game--which should count) beat Dayton, San Diego, Drake and Morehead State!!

[VU2624]

A lot depends on our schedule.  We lose USD (a sure L) and Davidson (a sure W).  We pick up Marist and Campbell -- both trend to Ls as their programs have continued to gain strength at a pace faster than ours.  That's especially true of Campbell who will have, at a minimum, a freshman recruiting class on FB scholarship. Here's the way I see it unfolding: Montana (L) Duquesne (L) TIU (W) Dayton (L) Drake (L) Butler (Toss Up shading W) Marist (Toss up shading L) Campbell (Toss up) Jacksonville (Toss-up) Stetson (Toss up) Morehead (W) That's 4 sure losses, 2 sure wins and 5 toss-ups I would be pleased to win 3 of the 5 toss-up games and come out with a 5-6 record (4 PFL wins) in year 4 of the program. The last time we won 5 total games was 2007.  The last time we won 4 PFL games in a season was............ NEVER.

Not sure what Drake has coming back but I wouldn't be surprised if Valpo is right there with them. I think Valpo has moved past Stetson and they lose Donald Payne. I think Marist has a young team and I can't see Valpo beating them.

[VULB#62]

A lot depends on our schedule.  We lose USD (a sure L) and Davidson (a sure W).  We pick up Marist and Campbell -- both trend to Ls as their programs have continued to gain strength at a pace faster than ours.  That's especially true of Campbell who will have, at a minimum, a freshman recruiting class on FB scholarship. Here's the way I see it unfolding: Montana (L) Duquesne (L) TIU (W) Dayton (L) Drake (L) Butler (Toss Up shading W) Marist (Toss up shading L) Campbell (Toss up) Jacksonville (Toss-up) Stetson (Toss up) Morehead (W) That's 4 sure losses, 2 sure wins and 5 toss-ups I would be pleased to win 3 of the 5 toss-up games and come out with a 5-6 record (4 PFL wins) in year 4 of the program. The last time we won 5 total games was 2007.  The last time we won 4 PFL games in a season was............ NEVER.

Not sure what Drake has coming back but I wouldn't be surprised if Valpo is right there with them. I think Valpo has moved past Stetson and they lose Donald Payne. I think Marist has a young team and I can't see Valpo beating them.

I can see all of that.  We have knack of challenging Drake for some reason. We lucked out against Stetson and got all the bounces going our way.  You think Stetson has outrun its appeal as a start up and now has to recruit against reality?  Thing is, how can we predict how much our kids will improve in the off season vs. our opponents?  Still think the PFL should pull Campbell from the standings and schedule us for a 12th game with Davidson in 2017.

[VU2624]

I can see all of that.  We have knack of challenging Drake for some reason. We lucked out against Stetson and got all the bounces going our way.  You think Stetson has outrun its appeal as a start up and now has to recruit against reality?  Thing is, how can we predict how much our kids will improve in the off season vs. our opponents?  Still think the PFL should pull Campbell from the standings and schedule us for a 12th game with Davidson in 2017.

I thought Stetson flattened out this year vs. last season and they won't have Payne who may be the best player in the league in a number of years. He's all over the place. You're right though, we can't measure improvement before it happens vs. the same for other teams.

I'm not sure adding a 12th game is allowed by NCAA rules. Isn't playing 12 games dependent upon when the season starts? I know it is tied to dates.

[VULB#62]

No idea. Just wishing. 

[bbtds]

Davidson (a sure W)

I really don't think any football opponent is a "sure" win except for that fake school in Arkansas for Valpo football. We only beat Davidson 24-20 this past season.

[VULB#62]

Davidson (a sure W)

I really don't think any football opponent is a "sure" win except for that fake school in Arkansas for Valpo football. We only beat Davidson 24-20 this past season.

Does that imply that my "sure loss" also has no validity?   

Of course you are technically correct -- just making a point.  But Cecchini has beaten Davidson 3 out of 3 times so far.  That's pretty close to 'sure' ...............  for us.

[bbtds]

Does that imply that my "sure loss" also has no validity?

Actually Valpo football can beat any of the PFL opponents, never will beat


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-shWSCtOEGI

[VU2624]

One other note on Stetson....they lose a fair amount of seniors who played a lot including Donald Payne. Not sure what they have coming up but that will probably hurt them.