Loyola Elite Eight

[Just Sayin]

I suppose there is an exceedingly remote possibility. But I don't see it that way. Negative? I'd say realistic.

[valpo84]

What is interesting is Valpo's Sweet 16 run as a 13 was quite remarkable at that time.  They played FSU, a 12 (likely last team in), in the next round and URI, an 8, in the first Sweet 16 game.  Valpo should have beaten URI.  It just didn't happen, but that team then would have faced Stanford, whom Valpo had played close early in the season on a neutral court. URI lost by 2. 

Matchups are the critical wildcard in every tourney.  Loyola has been "blessed" by the matchups this year.  Instead of UK, they got a middling Big 12 team coached by Bruce Weber.  Instead of UC, they got Nevada, a mid-major.  Their best win was over Tennessee.  They now get Michigan, a B1G team that MVC teams tend to match up well with on a neutral court.  Wagner poses issues if they post him low (wish Smits starts to play like Wagner in another year).  [Aside, what was Duke thinking in the OT, never went inside to Bagley for 5 mins???]

Butler also had favorable matchups in its 2 Final Four appearances.  It doesn't lessen their success or impact.  Butler in 2010 was a 5 and got a 12 (UTEP) and a 13 (Murray) to get to Sweet 16.  They then got a 1 seed, but it was Syracuse.  A team that is always beatable (or can reel off wins) because of the zone.  Butler had a scheme that matched up extremely well with a zone. Won by 4 then got Kansas State.  They deserved everything they earned that year, but matchups were favorable.  2011, Butler was an 8 and barely beat ODU and then got Pittsburgh which is usually a fragile club, they eeked out the win, similar to Loyola winning a couple on last possessions, and then got Wisconsin (a 4), another slow down not high offense team.  As someone said over the weekend (maybe Chuckles), you have to still score in these tournaments.  Butler, like Loyola had a great offensive scheme and could score (Mack/Smith/Howard), and had seniors. Next was Florida and an OT game that was 60-60 at end of regulation.  Again Butler did what they needed to do in those situations and got to 2 championship games.  Loyola has earned this and should enjoy every second of it.  55 years is a long time.  It's great for them, great for the MVC.  But, going to make it that much harder for the MVC to find games.

The 98 team showed it could be done with the right matchups and breaks in a tourney.  No, they didn't go farther, but it showed how it could be done.  Scott Drew prophetically said when he became head coach in 2002 (and Paul might have the exact quote) that he wanted to take Valpo to a Final Four and believe a mid-major could do it.  Now, he left before he could try to bring Valpo there, but he had the right concept and mindset that a mid-major could make the Final 4.  George Mason and VCU, Butler and Loyola have now proven that it is possible.  Loyola has those senior guards and that carries you far in this tourney.

And if people want to speculate about whether that 2016 team could beat this Loyola team, please speculate. I would have loved to have seen that matchup.  Valpo's offensive schemes were good and we could get shots. 

[usc4valpo]

I think Loyola has better facilities and probably better support from the university board and trustees. The Gentile Center is nice. Also, their endowment is triple of Valpo's.

[IrishDawg]

What is interesting is Valpo's Sweet 16 run as a 13 was quite remarkable at that time.  They played FSU, a 12 (likely last team in), in the next round and URI, an 8, in the first Sweet 16 game.  Valpo should have beaten URI.  It just didn't happen, but that team then would have faced Stanford, whom Valpo had played close early in the season on a neutral court. URI lost by 2. 

Matchups are the critical wildcard in every tourney.  Loyola has been "blessed" by the matchups this year.  Instead of UK, they got a middling Big 12 team coached by Bruce Weber.  Instead of UC, they got Nevada, a mid-major.  Their best win was over Tennessee.  They now get Michigan, a B1G team that MVC teams tend to match up well with on a neutral court.  Wagner poses issues if they post him low (wish Smits starts to play like Wagner in another year).  [Aside, what was Duke thinking in the OT, never went inside to Bagley for 5 mins???]

Butler also had favorable matchups in its 2 Final Four appearances.  It doesn't lessen their success or impact.  Butler in 2010 was a 5 and got a 12 (UTEP) and a 13 (Murray) to get to Sweet 16.  They then got a 1 seed, but it was Syracuse.  A team that is always beatable (or can reel off wins) because of the zone.  Butler had a scheme that matched up extremely well with a zone. Won by 4 then got Kansas State.  They deserved everything they earned that year, but matchups were favorable.  2011, Butler was an 8 and barely beat ODU and then got Pittsburgh which is usually a fragile club, they eeked out the win, similar to Loyola winning a couple on last possessions, and then got Wisconsin (a 4), another slow down not high offense team.  As someone said over the weekend (maybe Chuckles), you have to still score in these tournaments.  Butler, like Loyola had a great offensive scheme and could score (Mack/Smith/Howard), and had seniors. Next was Florida and an OT game that was 60-60 at end of regulation.  Again Butler did what they needed to do in those situations and got to 2 championship games.  Loyola has earned this and should enjoy every second of it.  55 years is a long time.  It's great for them, great for the MVC.  But, going to make it that much harder for the MVC to find games.

The 98 team showed it could be done with the right matchups and breaks in a tourney.  No, they didn't go farther, but it showed how it could be done.  Scott Drew prophetically said when he became head coach in 2002 (and Paul might have the exact quote) that he wanted to take Valpo to a Final Four and believe a mid-major could do it.  Now, he left before he could try to bring Valpo there, but he had the right concept and mindset that a mid-major could make the Final 4.  George Mason and VCU, Butler and Loyola have now proven that it is possible.  Loyola has those senior guards and that carries you far in this tourney.

And if people want to speculate about whether that 2016 team could beat this Loyola team, please speculate. I would have loved to have seen that matchup.  Valpo's offensive schemes were good and we could get shots.

Pretty much every team that makes it this far has the ball bounce their way in critical spots.  Going back to the Butler runs, in 2010, they very easily could have lost to Murray State.  Syracuse they got some crazy bounces (Veasley had a 3 bounce in from the wing after it hit the back of the rim, front of the rim, hit the backboard and bounced in.  Nored hit a 25 footer late in the shot clock (he shot under 20% from 3 that year).  Kansas State was coming off a 2OT game 2 days before against Xavier and was tired.  In 2011, Matt Howard got a tap in at the buzzer after the late Andrew Smith tapped it off the backboard to him against ODU.  Against Pitt Shelvin Mack committed the dumbest foul possibly in tourney history to put Pitt at the line to win the game.  Not only did the Pitt player miss one, but on the rebound a Pitt player fouled Howard to put him at the line with 2 free throws in which he only needed to hit 1 to win.  Against Florida, Stevens puts in Chrishawn Hopkins when they were in desperation mode down 9, he hits a 3 and dishes an assist to spark them and the rest is history.

Michigan could be sitting at home if Jordan Poole doesn't hit that 3 against Houston.  Loyola's done the same against Miami, Kansas was fortunate that Allen's shot didn't go in for Duke at the end of regulation yesterday.  Really the only team that's in the F4 right now without that "break" is Villanova.  As long as you get into the tournament, you've got a chance.

[Just Sayin]

 

Loyola has been "blessed" by the matchups this year.

Blessed by the matchups? LOL What games are you watching? Just another excuse and rampant speculation about why Valpo could have won. You crack me up. If anything, Loyola should have been seeded at LEAST a 10 seed, more realistically an 8 or better.

[ml2]

Loyola's run has been awesome to watch and is great for the MVC and great for Valpo. They are a very good team (currently 30th in the KenPom ratings). It doesn't take anything away from them to recognize the reality that they have had an unusually easy path to the Final Four, based on the outcomes of other games in their region. Five other mid-majors have recently made a Final Four (George Mason - 2006, Butler - 2010, Butler - 2011, VCU - 2011 and Wichita State - 2013). All five of those teams had to play and beat the number 1 seed in their region in order to reach the Final 4. Three of those five had to beat the number 1 and number 2 seeds. Loyola didn't have to play either.

Here's another way to put that in perspective, the 2016 Valpo team had to beat a higher ranked KenPom team (#34 St. Mary's) in order to reach the NIT SEMIS, than Loyola had to (#40 Kansas State) in order to reach the FINAL FOUR! That is astounding. For reference, here are the KenPom ranks of the 5 teams that the other mid-major Final Four participants beat in their Elite 8 match ups: 4, 6, 17, 3 and 7.

It's impossible to say what the 2016 Valpo team would have done with a chance to play in the NCAAs. But it's easy to see that a slate of match ups like the ones Loyola had this year would make a Final Four run a lot more likely for anyone. As IrishDawg pointed out, unless you are a blue-blood with overwhelming talent, a considerable amount of luck, both in how your own games play out and in the match ups you get, will be needed to reach a Final Four.

Regardless, congratulations to Loyola. They seized the opportunity put in front of them, and that is all anyone can do. Here's hoping for two more wins this weekend!

[FWalum]

Loyola's run has been awesome to watch and is great for the MVC and great for Valpo. They are a very good team (currently 30th in the KenPom ratings). It doesn't take anything away from them to recognize the reality that they have had an unusually easy path to the Final Four, based on the outcomes of other games in their region. Five other mid-majors have recently made a Final Four (George Mason - 2006, Butler - 2010, Butler - 2011, VCU - 2011 and Wichita State - 2013). All five of those teams had to play and beat the number 1 seed in their region in order to reach the Final 4. Three of those five had to beat the number 1 and number 2 seeds. Loyola didn't have to play either.

Here's another way to put that in perspective, the 2016 Valpo team had to beat a higher ranked KenPom team (#34 St. Mary's) in order to reach the NIT SEMIS, than Loyola had to (#40 Kansas State) in order to reach the FINAL FOUR! That is astounding. For reference, here are the KenPom ranks of the 5 teams that the other mid-major Final Four participants beat in their Elite 8 match ups: 4, 6, 17, 3 and 7.

It's impossible to say what the 2016 Valpo team would have done with a chance to play in the NCAAs. But it's easy to see that a slate of match ups like the ones Loyola had this year would make a Final Four run a lot more likely for anyone. As IrishDawg pointed out, unless you are a blue-blood with overwhelming talent, a considerable amount of luck, both in how your own games play out and in the match ups you get, will be needed to reach a Final Four.

Regardless, congratulations to Loyola. They seized the opportunity put in front of them, and that is all anyone can do. Here's hoping for two more wins this weekend!

As always, great analysis ml2.

[Just Sayin]

Loyola's run has been awesome to watch and is great for the MVC and great for Valpo. They are a very good team (currently 30th in the KenPom ratings). It doesn't take anything away from them to recognize the reality that they have had an unusually easy path to the Final Four, based on the outcomes of other games in their region. Five other mid-majors have recently made a Final Four (George Mason - 2006, Butler - 2010, Butler - 2011, VCU - 2011 and Wichita State - 2013). All five of those teams had to play and beat the number 1 seed in their region in order to reach the Final 4. Three of those five had to beat the number 1 and number 2 seeds. Loyola didn't have to play either.

Here's another way to put that in perspective, the 2016 Valpo team had to beat a higher ranked KenPom team (#34 St. Mary's) in order to reach the NIT SEMIS, than Loyola had to (#40 Kansas State) in order to reach the FINAL FOUR! That is astounding. For reference, here are the KenPom ranks of the 5 teams that the other mid-major Final Four participants beat in their Elite 8 match ups: 4, 6, 17, 3 and 7.

It's impossible to say what the 2016 Valpo team would have done with a chance to play in the NCAAs. But it's easy to see that a slate of match ups like the ones Loyola had this year would make a Final Four run a lot more likely for anyone. As IrishDawg pointed out, unless you are a blue-blood with overwhelming talent, a considerable amount of luck, both in how your own games play out and in the match ups you get, will be needed to reach a Final Four.

Regardless, congratulations to Loyola. They seized the opportunity put in front of them, and that is all anyone can do. Here's hoping for two more wins this weekend!

You made some valid arguments. Nice job. I will concede that Loyola has not played the higher seeded teams that previous teams you mentioned did to reach the final four. But my eye test tells me that this is the best TEAM of any of the previous teams you mentioned. No super stars, yet they play fundamentally sound basketball and beat better (on paper) and more athletic and higher-seeded teams. And the seeding process as well as the Pomeroy/Sagarin ratings are not infallible as we see every year. It's tough to make a valid comparison.  I'm all in with Loyola, they've made a believer out of me. I picked Michigan to win it all but I sure would like to see Loyola beat them and win the championship game.  This year is one of the most exciting tournaments I've ever watched. (Close second 1998) I don't recall seeing the remarkable parity in the entire field that we've seen this year compared to prior years. Anyone can win from top to bottom. There were some firsts such as the first 16 seed winning and the first elite 8 game between a 9 and an 11 seed. This is a crazy year for college basketball.

[VULB#62]

............... and it is just so nice to be able to say that we are in a conference that has the ability to send a team like Loyola this year (and WSU in the past) deep into the dance.  I'd like to think that we (Valpo) will have that capability in the not too distant future as well.  Great rooting for the Ramblers.

[EddieCabot]

This hurts to think about... Because it's true...

https://twitter.com/connerennis/status/976992171810279425

That Valpo team was good enough to beat anyone on a neutral court.  Just wish they would have been given a chance to get into the tourney.

[VULB#62]

Just browsed to the Loyola site.  Their opening page announces that they have sold out their ticket packages for San Antonio.  Additional tickets are available for LUC fans via the NCAA Ticket Exchange.  Rambler fans have really gotten into it.  I wonder if it had been Valpo whether we could do that?  They have so many Chicago alums compared to VU.  But for years they couldn't even fill the Gentile.  Funny how things can change.

[NativeCheesehead]

Something tells me they won't have trouble filling up the GC next year, even after they jack up ticket prices.

[usc4valpo]

Summer basketball camp enrollment at Loyola  will increase too. I wonder also if elite Chicagoland prospects will decide to play there.

[VULB#62]

The Final USAToday Coaches Top 25 has been released.  Loyola went up 21 slots from unranked to #7.  They got additional exposure because of the huge leap.  Interestingly, the team that lost the most ground: The Shockers who dropped 9 slots and almost drpped out of the rankings at #25.

In next year's preseaon poll, Loyola comes in at #15.  Gonzaga is the top mid-major at #5 with Nevada the only other mid-major in the 2018-19 Top 25 at #13.

[usc4valpo]

Nevada willl be really really good next year. I was impressed with them in the tournament, and they played well against Loyola. Well coached also.

People will be gaming on Loyola next year.