Poll: Preseason Conference Predictions & Expectations

[chef]

Surprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

[justducky]

Maybe Coach is planning on running out a "small ball" lineup this season.

If Mileek is that much improved then our depth and versatility will offer many new potential combinations and attacks. 

I continue to be much more concerned about our November team than I am about the one who will be playing in February. No matter what this team looks like early we should be MVC top half late. In a year where we have zero at-large potential, that is really all that matters.

[justducky]

Deion could start at the 1

If we start with the assumption that Bradford has improved then Deion starting might imply that we are stronger and deeper at point than we were in 17-18.  At the 5 we should see significant improvement and versatility.    Comparing our talents at the 4 with what we finished with last year is like comparing D-3 with D-1 so  Fazekas joining a much improved Golder and Evelyn has got to also help with our play at the 3!    That seems to leave the 2 as the only position where Tevonn's absence might step us sideways or backward. 

Big Picture---4 out of 5 positions seeing improvement AIN'T BAD.

[VU2014]

Honestly, your source is not correct on this subject. Sorolla, Smits and McMillan will all play minutes at the 5. I think Mileek could average about 10 minutes a game at the 4 and 10 minutes at the 5.
Bakari, Javon and Ryan are the most likely starters. Sorolla appears to have a leg up at the 5 and Deion could start at the 1, allowing Bakari to play off the ball more. Golder and Mileek would be first 2 off the bench. A lot could change but that appears to be where the rotation stands right now. Sackey will definite see significant minutes also.

I was wondering if they were going to keep Jay coming off the bench because he seemed to be more comfortable in that role for some reason. If Deion is starting and Sackey sees a significant role that could lead to Micah seeing a very reduced role this season. When he's out there he's going to need to be productive to earn a sizable role. either way we might have real depth this season if everyone actually plays up to their abilities this season. Remember how the "narrative" at the start of last season was that we were a deep team. That fell flat by the seasons end.

Chef, do you think this team has a shot to be a Top 5 team in the MVC this season?

[EddieCabot]

In a year where we have zero at-large potential, that is really all that matters.

I'm not ready to conclude that before the team has even played a game.  As Coach Lottich has said, they have a non-conference schedule built for an at-large bid.  Not projecting an at-large, but I'll at least wait to see how they fare against WKU, WVU (possibly twice) and Texas A&M before I write off all chances.

[talksalot]

Come on out to the Hammond Civic Center tomorrow (Saturday) ... free practice for Men and Women...beer available for sale... meet and greet with the team and coaches... starts at 2pm... outta there by 4pm.

There will be co-ed scrimmages and practice drills...

[FieldGoodie05]

Come on out to the Hammond Civic Center tomorrow (Saturday) ... free practice for Men and Women...beer available for sale... meet and greet with the team and coaches... starts at 2pm... outta there by 4pm.

There will be co-ed scrimmages and practice drills...

I'll be there with a few buddies, should be good times.  Unlike the home schedule, it's actually on a Saturday!!!!

[talksalot]

The registration list is growing...   

https://alumni.valpo.edu/s/1347/17/page-1col.aspx?sid=1347&gid=1&sitebuilder=1&pgid=2477&crid=0&calpgid=2012&calcid=4877

[VU2014]

Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

[nkvu]

Surprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

So.....Mileek is going to take minutes from the two 7 footers. Is this related to Jay's injury?  Might Jay be a medical redshirt this year thereby giving him a chance to be the main 5 after Smits leaves?  If not then which of the 7 footers is likely to transfer next year if their pt is cut?  Won't Smits be a graduate transfer possibility next year?  I suppose I can see some situations where we might need to go small, but if Mileek is going to play regular minutes at the 5 that says a lot about the ability of the two 7 footers to contribute to the team's chances to rise in the MVC standings.

[VU2014]

Surprising ... a very reliable source said Mileek would only be playing the 4 spot.

This is incorrect. Again, Mileek will definitely play some at the five.

So.....Mileek is going to take minutes from the two 7 footers. Is this related to Jay's injury?  Might Jay be a medical redshirt this year thereby giving him a chance to be the main 5 after Smits leaves?  If not then which of the 7 footers is likely to transfer next year if their pt is cut?  Won't Smits be a graduate transfer possibility next year?  I suppose I can see some situations where we might need to go small, but if Mileek is going to play regular minutes at the 5 that says a lot about the ability of the two 7 footers to contribute to the team's chances to rise in the MVC standings.

I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

As for if Smits will be a grad-transfer I have no clue. If he graduates this year and is just solid, I'm sure other coaches will be calling via back channels to gauge his interest. 7 foot grad transfers are a rare commodity. Hopefully he stays all 4 years. experience and team chemistry is extremely valuable. I think Smits could be in for a pretty good offensive season (not sure about defense or rebounding though). It's really unfortunate timing for the Sorolla injury. Hopefully we'll get a injury update before the season starts. We'll need his defensive presence this season.

[wh]

I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

KVW was 6-8 and 230 lbs. and almost never outmatched on either end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R6zEFy_v_c

[IrishDawg]

I don't think Mileek will ever be able to be relied upon as full-time 5 but he may be able to play the 5 with certain matchups and in certain situations. example: Jubril was sometimes relied upon to go up against bigger opposing players and held his own on defense. Mileek is more athletic and has more potential versatility.

KVW was 6-8 and 230 lbs. and almost never outmatched on either end

He wasn't overmatched on the offensive end of the floor for sure, but defensively he was just slightly above average for a college big.  Mileek's a different kind of player than both he and Vashil (who was an incredibly dominant defensive player, but not quite average offensively), but your point isn't wrong.  You don't need to be huge to be able to defend the paint against most college 5's because there are so few dominant big men any more.  Mileek being able to stretch the floor should help space things offensively as well.

[EddieCabot]

Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

I don't know much about Pomeroy's formula, especially his preseason rankings.  Does he include freshmen?  Transfers?  How does his "formula" factor in off season improvement in guys like McMillen?  To me, Valpo looks low.  Even more startling is Loyola at 67 after making the Final Four just a few months ago.

Looking at the rest of his rankings, it's clear his formula is skewed towards teams in the Power 5 (plus AAC and BE).  Only a handful of teams outside that group are ranked in the top 70 ... seems like a very biased system to me.

[IrishDawg]

Kenpom Preseason MVC Rankings:

https://twitter.com/Valpo_Hoops/status/1053686759161323521

I don't know much about Pomeroy's formula, especially his preseason rankings.  Does he include freshmen?  Transfers?  How does his "formula" factor in off season improvement in guys like McMillen?  To me, Valpo looks low.  Even more startling is Loyola at 67 after making the Final Four just a few months ago.

Looking at the rest of his rankings, it's clear his formula is skewed towards teams in the Power 5 (plus AAC and BE).  Only a handful of teams outside that group are ranked in the top 70 ... seems like a very biased system to me.

I don't think his preseason rankings are any more accurate than any other rating system (last year Valpo was ranked 131st in preseason and wound up 150th), but here's the gist of how he comes up with it:

The biggest factors to how a team performs in a given year were how it performed offensively and defensively the previous year.  Valpo was 210th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency last season.  He then factors in the minutes each team has coming back, with freshman minutes being more valuable than sophomores, which are more valuable than returning junior minutes.  This essentially says that freshman will more likely make a bigger jump in efficiency than their older counterparts, who was basically know what they are.  Since most of the minutes that Valpo has returning were sophomore minutes (Mileek is the only freshman returning, and didn't play a ton of minutes last year), the jump in efficiency is expected, but obviously with two of their best ballhandlers in Walker and Joseph being gone, the remaining team's high turnover rate didn't help facilitate a big jump. 

Lastly, his ratings look at transfers and freshmen.  Basically, if you're outside of the top 30 freshmen, his ratings system doesn't really recognize it, and given that the top 30 guys go to P5 teams, yeah, it's going to be biased in that sense.  In terms of transfers, it factors them into the lineup in a similar manner that it would a returning player.  In Fazekas' case, he was playing basically the same number of minutes that Mileek did last season at Providence as a sophomore, so his minutes are going to be less valued than even Mileek's in terms of adding to the team's efficiency.  Meanwhile, where do most of the super productive transfers wind up at?  Power programs.

So yes, when you look at things on paper, it's always going to skew things towards the power conferences.  They generally get better players, more productive transfers, etc. than the mid-majors.  The difference is though as the season goes on, these preseason ratings become less and less of a factor until really once conference season hits they're basically non-existent.

In Loyola's case (which I agree with), the fact they made a F4 run last year doesn't mean anything for the following year's preseason rating.  They lost 3 guys that played a major role for them on last year's team, which really only had one major upset in the tournament (Tennessee) if you look at each team's ratings heading into their tournament games.  Their returning minutes, with the exception of Krutwig and Williamson are going to be Seniors this year, so on average those guys aren't going to make major jumps from their Junior campaigns, and they didn't bring in any highly rated freshmen.  So while you can disagree with where they're rated preseason, the formula doesn't change.  My guess is they'll be better too, but certainly I wouldn't put them as high as last year's team which finished #31 in the ratings.