Turnover Trend

[wh]

Following is our conference ranking for Turnovers/Game (conference games only) for the past 18 seasons:

1st is worst
13-14 1
12-13 1
11-12 3
10-11 4
09-10 3
08-09 2
07-08 4
06-07 1
05-06 5
04-05 3
03-04 2
02-03 5
01-02 7
00-01 4
99-00 3
98-99 3
97-98 6
96-97 7

Of note:
--Avg. Horizon ranking 2.6; avg. Mid Con ranking 4.2
--Last year's "1st is worst" ranking is far more puzzling than this year's, given the dramatic difference in experienced players
--Look at 96-97 and 97-98; it always helps to have a future NBA player running the point


Subsequent observation:
--We've had higher turnovers than average for the past 12 consecutive years.  That says 2 things to me: (1) our turnover problem is not a recent development by any stretch, and (2) we may be drastically overrating the importance of turnovers given the number of conference championships and above average finishes we have had relative to our competition.  Am I on to something here, or is this nonsensical? 

[sliman]

It would be interesting to see this compared with possessions per game.  We're probably playing at a faster tempo than some of the previous years; is this a factor?

[chef]

I think the number one factor is the style of play of the point guard. Guys like Bryce Drew, Dwayne Toatley and Greg Tonagel were incredibly sure handed with the ball and great decision makers on where the ball needs to go. Ali Berdiel, Jarryd Loyd, and Erik Buggs were more risk takers. Notice that Berdiel, Loyd and Buggs rank among our all-time leaders in assists and turnovers. This year has been a combination of a lot of things, with the incredible amount of illegal screens at the top of the list.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

It would be interesting to see this compared with possessions per game.  We're probably playing at a faster tempo than some of the previous years; is this a factor?

Again, that's why TO% is the stat that tells you the most: because tempo-free.

22.1% of our possessions end in a turnover.  There are 345 D1 teams that do better than that.

/story

[bbtds]

That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.

Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.

I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.

[justducky]

That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.

Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.

I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.

Both Nickerson and Adekoya came here wanting to play some 3 and I would assume that it has been Victors' primary focus to date and is Jubrils' off season challenge to improve their 3 point shooting. Having either forward position only shooting 22% or lower from 3 is just unthinkable in today's game. I can not even imagine how we could win conference next year or how we could ever put both of them on the floor together if both are shooting under 28% from 3. We will have to get the floor properly spread for Lexus and Keith to exploit the room that will be left in the middle. Even Michael Jordan didn't do so well taking it to the middle going 1 on 3. It is also much easier to drive around a defender guarding you closely than one who gives you plenty of room and the deep passing lanes also open up better, with both reducing turnovers.

As much as I already like Jubril and look forward to seeing Victor play it remains their responsibility to provide what the team will need or we will be seeing a lot more of Clay at the 3 and Alec at the 4 than we now expect.

[vu72]

That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.

Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.

I would say that Jubril's issue may have been that he held on to the ball too long or made easy passes too quickly. He didn't shoot very often and I remember many times Jubril standing at the edge of the arc (sans "h") trying to figure out what to do with the ball. Unless Adekoya had a lane to the basket he was 2 to 3 seconds wasted off the shot clock. I will say there were times Jubril made some awesome moves around the basket and got us points in crucial situations.

Both Nickerson and Adekoya came here wanting to play some 3 and I would assume that it has been Victors' primary focus to date and is Jubrils' off season challenge to improve their 3 point shooting. Having either forward position only shooting 22% or lower from 3 is just unthinkable in today's game. I can not even imagine how we could win conference next year or how we could ever put both of them on the floor together if both are shooting under 28% from 3. We will have to get the floor properly spread for Lexus and Keith to exploit the room that will be left in the middle. Even Michael Jordan didn't do so well taking it to the middle going 1 on 3. It is also much easier to drive around a defender guarding you closely than one who gives you plenty of room and the deep passing lanes also open up better, with both reducing turnovers.

As much as I already like Jubril and look forward to seeing Victor play it remains their responsibility to provide what the team will need or we will be seeing a lot more of Clay at the 3 and Alec at the 4 than we now expect.

I would love for someone (maybe chef??) to tell us what to expect from Nickerson.  My guess is that he will be a bigger version of Jordan Coleman.  Take a look at the team picture:

http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/

Nickerson is standing next to Jubril.  If he isn't two inches taller it's mighty close.  So you have (I hope) a 6'7"(6'8"??) athletic guy who can drive to the hoop and defend.  I think he might help solve several issues.

[Valpofan00]

What are we supposed to expect out of Nick Davidson for the next 3 years?

[wh]

I have watched Nickerson shooting alone or working with a staff member on 5 or 6 different occasions. He definitely has 3-pt. range and is excellent from the baseline from any distance.  He has excellent form, as well.  That said, I have yet to see him shoot off the run, stop and pop, juke or anything else other than shooting undefended, spot-up jump shots with his feet set and unlimited time to unload. 

[historyman]

Nickerson transferred from Charlotte and is taller than Valpo's other 3's. How could he not be better? We would have won the Saint Louis, Detroit @ Valpo, Mercer and quite possibly ETSU games if Victor had played this season. After all he was in the ESPN top 100 for his HS class of 2008. There I got that out of the way.

Now let's take Victor at face value and if he's very good then that is a bonus and if he is average let's not jump on anyone for thinking he should have been better. Nickerson will be who he is. Let's repeat that. Nickerson will be who he is. Not worse or better.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

HS class of 2008

no way that's true.  There I got that out of the way.

Confirmation:  http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/

helped squad to state championship as a freshman in 2008

why does that matter?  rankings from 2011 are more helpful and accurate today than 2008.

also, "'X' will be who he is.  Not worse or better" is tautological...how does that advance any discussion?

[justducky]

Nickerson transferred from Charlotte and is taller than Valpo's other 3's. How could he not be better? We would have won the Saint Louis, Detroit @ Valpo, Mercer and quite possibly ETSU games if Victor had played this season. After all he was in the ESPN top 100 for his HS class of 2008. There I got that out of the way.

If this is true then we should all meet just behind the VU bench as the UIC game ends so that we can carry Victor off the floor in anticipation of his future glory! Even if we lose to UIC we will still have plenty to celebrate.  Maybe we can carry historyman off too just for bringing this to our attention!

[justducky]

What are we supposed to expect out of Nick Davidson for the next 3 years?

What I was expecting and what I am now expecting are two very different things. Some players do mature and peak earlier than others and in those cases their accumulation of basketball knowledge will continue at the group pace but their execution skills may grow much slower. So how does Nick now fit in?

Because Nick was the cornerstone first commitment that then helped bring in Clay, Lexus, and Jubril (all of which he knew) I do not think he will want to leave "his class" for greener pastures. Somebody brought up Seth Colclasure as an example of someone who stuck around for 4 years to develop his skills and earn his playing time and I think Nick might fit that mold.

[chef]

I think if E. Victor is healthy he'll be a big part of the team next season. He's very athletic and plays with a real high motor. He's 3-pt shot is more than adequate. His biggest strength is how hard he plays. Unfortunately he's going to miss a lot of time on the court this summer because of an injury.

[historyman]

HS class of 2008

no way that's true.  There I got that out of the way. Confirmation:  http://www.valpoathletics.com/mbasketball/roster/2013-14/6563/e-victor-nickerson/

helped squad to state championship as a freshman in 2008

why does that matter?  rankings from 2011 are more helpful and accurate today than 2008. also, "'X' will be who he is.  Not worse or better" is tautological...how does that advance any discussion?

Whatever claim was made it was made in a very facetious way. It didn't matter if it's true or not. Victor will still be Victor at Valpo. If you of all people can't advance discussion without inflating these players reputation beyond their ability to fulfill that reputation than I don't know who can. I'm just asking for some rational thinking for the discussion.

[covufan]

Back to turnovers. 

When I look at turnovers, I ususally look at turnover margin, which takes into account the pace of play and our ability to cause turnovers on the other team.  Here are some recent stats:

Year   Turnover Margin   NCAA Rank 2014       -4.4                    342 2013       -1.3                    260 2012       -2.6                    310 2011        0.9                    113 2010       -0.3                    191 2009        0.0                    165

As others have stated, turnovers are really this teams achilles heal.  Our ranking in the HL for TO margin is of course last.  The surprising thing is that VU is 3.4 TOs per game more than any other team.  We are giving up more than three posessions per game to each team, sometimes more.

The other areas that need attention are Assist/TO ratio and personal fouls per game, where we rank 284 and 282, respectively. 

To be fair, this team should also be commended on their NCAA ranking in the following categories:

FG% Defense: ranked 23rd
FT%: ranked 35th
Rebound Margin: ranked 29th
Blocked shots/game: ranked 35th

stats from: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB  click on Division I, then this season, then most recent week, then find Valpo to get stats. 

[VULB#62]

Back to turnovers. 

When I look at turnovers, I ususally look at turnover margin, which takes into account the pace of play and our ability to cause turnovers on the other team.  Here are some recent stats:

Year   Turnover Margin   NCAA Rank 2014       -4.4                    342 2013       -1.3                    260 2012       -2.6                    310 2011        0.9                    113 2010       -0.3                    191 2009        0.0                    165

As others have stated, turnovers are really this teams achilles heal.  Our ranking in the HL for TO margin is of course last.  The surprising thing is that VU is 3.4 TOs per game more than any other team.  We are giving up more than three posessions per game to each team, sometimes more.

The other areas that need attention are Assist/TO ratio and personal fouls per game, where we rank 284 and 282, respectively. 

To be fair, this team should also be commended on their NCAA ranking in the following categories:

FG% Defense: ranked 23rd
FT%: ranked 35th
Rebound Margin: ranked 29th
Blocked shots/game: ranked 35th

stats from: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary?sportCode=MBB  click on Division I, then this season, then most recent week, then find Valpo to get stats.

Bottom line:  In the last three years Your stats (which I like) say that Bryce has got to adjust his coaching approach. His O is too prone to TOs.  Makes sense to me.  But, then, I am a FB guy who belives that the base is the defense and you just need to score 1 point more than the other guy.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Food for thought:



While this year was as bad as we thought, it hasn't been so awful always.  Here's the last 7 years.  Bold indicates the best performance during the period and italics the worst.

2008 was our best year (and remains the last time we won a postseason game).  This year was even worse than 2009 404 YEAR NOT FOUND, if you can believe it.  Because while the raw numbers were worse that year (TO/PG and TO%), everyone else got much better (i.e. posting 2009's raw numbers in 2014 would have been even worse) at ball control in the intervening five years.

We gave away 4.2 possessions a game that we did not get back.  We averaged 1.017 points per possession this year.  So we gave away 4.27 points per game.  Let's say 4 points a game, just for simplicity's sake, and I'm not looking at each individual game, which would be more accurate, because, obviously.  We'll just look at the result.

For the record that would have meant we would have won
--Mercer (because no OT)
--St. Louis
--Detroit, and
--Columbia.

We'd be 22-12 and still playing, having posted our second-best record in the last 7 years.  You could even make the case that we'd have beaten OHIO (4-pt loss) and be 23-11, with FIVE victories over teams in the Dance.

(Instead, with so many turnovers, we can barely beat a dance team.  but i digress.)

Finally (and I thought about posting this in coaching) but I posted the averages for this span under each coach.

We have half a turnover more per game under Bryce.  Doesn't seem like much, but it takes us from the very middle of the pack under Homer down to the 23rd percentile.  Turnover % is 7.4% higher under Bryce, and the fall even more severe (from just upper-half to bottom septile, if that's a thing).

Under Homer, we never gave up as much as a net TO/pg, and even finished net POSITIVE in 2011!  But Bryce is looking at almost 3 TO/pg.

Just for fun (and by fun i mean "a dong-punch to your soul"):  those TOs last year were worth 1.6 ppg and possibly two more wins (Nebraska & Oakland) for a record of (gulp) 28-6. 

Year 1 of the B-Drew era, the TO diff was worth 2.64 ppg and possibly two MORE wins (Oakland AG'IN, and Milwaukee I) for a record of 24-10. 

So Bryce Drew is 66-36 (.647), but could be 75-27 (.735) if we had just broke EVEN on turnovers with our opponents.  Ye gods.

[milanmiracle]

If you of all people can't advance discussion without inflating these players reputation beyond their ability to fulfill that reputation than I don't know who can. I'm just asking for some rational thinking for the discussion.

As I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

As I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.

perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement

[milanmiracle]

As I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.

perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement

touché. Well played sir. 

That being said the point is still valid.

[justducky]

As I have stated before...rational thinking when it comes to Valpo basketball isn't exactly a strength of this group.

perhaps posting that beneath 500+ words of (mostly) sober statistical analysis of trends of the last seven years wasn't the best place to position such a statement

OK, since you were fishing for a compliment allow me to give it. I might have even spent 15 minutes thinking about it after I read it (most of your posts require more like 15 milliseconds  ). You assembled lots of good information but from it I have been able to conclude very little that has not been already said that might help reverse the trend. There are a great many factors which contribute to these elevated numbers so there are a great number of issues in need of attention before the trend is reversed.

Since milan would like to limit us to rational thought I am only going to predict that from where we now stand (near the bottom of Div. 1) there is only one direction that we can go. I think. 

[VULB#62]

I admit it:  This is a very dumb question to much smarter BB aficionados that me  --  Given our limited resources (i.e., no 5 star players) why don't we play like Columbia (within our limits, but with  intensity and focus)?  Columbia has now advanced to the third round of the CIT doing what they do -- boring play but few turnovers and tough defense. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Since milan would like to limit us to rational thought I am only going to predict that from where we now stand (near the bottom of Div. 1) there is only one direction that we can go. I think. 

Not fishing--no need.  Though yes, my posts seem to either require 15 or 0.15, nothing in between.

I think what we have to hope for is what you're hinting at--regression to the mean--otherwise we have a trend.  I think in our favor we have freshmen running point and big men who alternately have trouble setting screens or catching cleanly in the post.  If (as) that improves, as you say, nowhere to go.  If it doesn't significantly improve, then I think you have to entertain the narrative of a "players' coach" who encourages free-thinking, risk-taking, etc.

regression to the mean:  our hope for 2015!

poet.

[historyman]

Food for thought:



While this year was as bad as we thought, it hasn't been so awful always.  Here's the last 7 years.  Bold indicates the best performance during the period and italics the worst.

2008 was our best year (and remains the last time we won a postseason game).  This year was even worse than 2009 404 YEAR NOT FOUND, if you can believe it.  Because while the raw numbers were worse that year (TO/PG and TO%), everyone else got much better (i.e. posting 2009's raw numbers in 2014 would have been even worse) at ball control in the intervening five years.

We gave away 4.2 possessions a game that we did not get back.  We averaged 1.017 points per possession this year.  So we gave away 4.27 points per game.  Let's say 4 points a game, just for simplicity's sake, and I'm not looking at each individual game, which would be more accurate, because, obviously.  We'll just look at the result.

For the record that would have meant we would have won
--Mercer (because no OT)
--St. Louis
--Detroit, and
--Columbia.

We'd be 22-12 and still playing, having posted our second-best record in the last 7 years.  You could even make the case that we'd have beaten OHIO (4-pt loss) and be 23-11, with FIVE victories over teams in the Dance.

(Instead, with so many turnovers, we can barely beat a dance team.  but i digress.)

Finally (and I thought about posting this in coaching) but I posted the averages for this span under each coach.

We have half a turnover more per game under Bryce.  Doesn't seem like much, but it takes us from the very middle of the pack under Homer down to the 23rd percentile.  Turnover % is 7.4% higher under Bryce, and the fall even more severe (from just upper-half to bottom septile, if that's a thing).

Under Homer, we never gave up as much as a net TO/pg, and even finished net POSITIVE in 2011!  But Bryce is looking at almost 3 TO/pg.

Just for fun (and by fun i mean "a dong-punch to your soul"):  those TOs last year were worth 1.6 ppg and possibly two more wins (Nebraska & Oakland) for a record of (gulp) 28-6. 

Year 1 of the B-Drew era, the TO diff was worth 2.64 ppg and possibly two MORE wins (Oakland AG'IN, and Milwaukee I) for a record of 24-10. 

So Bryce Drew is 66-36 (.647), but could be 75-27 (.735) if we had just broke EVEN on turnovers with our opponents.  Ye gods.

I was thinking of what to fix for breakfast when I happen to read this post about turnovers. I haven't seen a post from Laporte like this in a while.

Also it reminded me this basketball season there will be some deamons to exorcize.

Also, I'm suddenly very hungry. hmmmmmmm!