A look back / a look ahead

[bbtds]

Do the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?

Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?

How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?

Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?

If yes, what are the divisions for?

I can't believe I'm spending several minutes of my life looking into this arcana, but, I suppose given some of the things I DO spend precious moments of my life on this board, I guess I can't complain much to people to whom such things are visible, right?

After all, from whom else would you learn that it is an UNACCEPTABLE USAGE to refer to the Morehead State University Eagles as "MOREHEAD"? (p.3, "OVC Style Guide", OVC Basketball Media Guide, Nashville, TN: OVC Sports Publications, 2012)

(stifle the giggles)
http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222

OK.  This is the first year divisional play has been instituted.  Similar to other sports, the winners of each division are guaranteed one of the top 2 seeds, then everyone else gets 3 through 8 (3-4 with a bye) (p. 18, ibid.)

Ties are broken like so:  http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf

Bracket looks like this:  http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf

Thanks, Apostle, that explains a lot and I appreciated your effort to quench my curiosity. 

The real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.

Playing the OVC tourney in Nashville must be a huge advantage for Belmont and Tenn State,

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.

I agree.  It almost seems unkind--because you wouldn't expect them to threaten anyone anyway, but it is nice as a reward.

not like all those years ago when only 8 teams in a 9-team Mid-Con made the tourney :/

Here's how the B1G does it with 12:  not so many freakin' byes.  Of course, the obvious retort is that they are not needing to protect all the seeding.

POETRY

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf

[Kyle321n]

The real surprise, here, for me, was that four teams, 1/3 of all OVC competing schools don't even get a chance to play in the OVC tournament in Nashville.

I agree.  It almost seems unkind--because you wouldn't expect them to threaten anyone anyway, but it is nice as a reward.

not like all those years ago when only 8 teams in a 9-team Mid-Con made the tourney :/

Here's how the B1G does it with 12:  not so many freakin' byes.  Of course, the obvious retort is that they are not needing to protect all the seeding.

POETRY

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13/misc_non_event/2013_mbb_bracket.pdf

I've always liked the way the B1G does it.  Adding the 12th team just caused their 5th seed to play an extra game, which really shouldn't hurt them since the 12th team will be Penn St or Nebraska year after year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Still, the only team to ever win 4 games in 4 days (since its institution in 1998) was 2001 Iowa (I remember that well!), so that's a punch in the 5 seed stomach.

Although, since then, only one seed below 1 or 2 has ever won.  So, they probably weren't going to anyway.

This year:  going to be amazing to watch.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Teams to root against, the sequel/update: 
conference leaders that are in our RPI neighborhood

where is that exactly around 66.
Coming off of owning the HL reg'lar season the way we used to own the In-Continent Conference
Toughest game left final vs Det (ducks the Hand of Fate)
Chance of winning out 72% of statistics are made up on the spot
Biggest threat still turnovers.  also flagrant elbows and bad tattoos.

--Davidson (78)
Coming off of? now 14 straight wins over their horrible horrible conference (17-1 on the year)
How horrible is it? Their neighbor is the Big Sky Conference.
That's pretty horrible?  Oh you haven't heard the worst of it.
Biggest threat? #151 College of Charleston
Did we catch them? Yes, because for us both to be in the dance they will have to beat their stanky skanky conference while we will have had two RPI-boosting pills.
Worst of it?  IS STILL THE FACT THIS TEAM LOST TO MILWAUKEE, PEOPLE, THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO GO TO THE DANCE EVEN ESPECIALLY WITH BAPTISTS


--Stephen F Austin (74)
Coming off of? a tough loss at home to NW St! TODAY! 63-62!!!
NOOOOOOO
Wait check that? thought i caught a final there were still 11 seconds left and NOOOOO 64-63 W
Did we catch them? maybe not.  they won their toughest game left.
Statistics to make me feel better about that? 71.4% of made-up stats are more convincing to 3 sig figs

Most people are unaware that Texas invented the F-word.  Or at least perfected it.


--South Dakota State U (72)
Coming off of? Winning their conference but losing two non-con, including Murray St, but also #280 Cal-Bakersfield. ouch.gif
Dear Racers: your winning this game worked so well for us on so many different levels.  Yes.  Both of them.
So did we catch them? YEAH.  caught and passed.
Biggest conference threat? Western Illinois or Oakland (107ishes)



--Bucknell (52)
Coming off of? A highly successful end to their season.
How successful is it? They didn't lose any of the games.
Biggest conference threat? #106 Lehigh
Will we catch them? nope.  because a) it's too late and b) if they lose the tourney, it won't be them we've caught


BONUS SPEAKING OF NERDS (NOT YOU WEATHER)
Harvard (87)
Coming off of? LOSING TO PRINCETON LIKE WE NEEDED 58-53
This means something to me why Well, because we win, no matter if Harvard still wins the Ivy, because now they're enough behind us not to be a threat.
HAHA SUCKIT HARVARD.  I know. 

From the Encyclopedia of Chicago:
http://www.encyclopedia.chicagohistory.org/pages/2163.html

...Valparaiso University (VU). By 1907 it was the second largest university in the country, second only to Harvard. (The University of Chicago was third...

author:  one Melvin Doering

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Just wanted to put it out there that my conference season wrap-up blog has been kindly approved and published on the blog page--give it a view here!

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/

thanks.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  24-7.  23-7 to the eyes of Rippy. Done with the reg'lar season.

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  WON ALL THE GAMES!

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  61 (of 347 D-I) RealTime UP 19!
RPIForecast:   60  RPIForecast UP 20!
Sagarin:        68 with a rating of 80.09 (first time cracking 80 this year!)  Sagarin UP 9!
ESPN / BPI:  66 with a rating of 69.9 ESPN BPI UP 7!

Average the 4 and come up with 64, or up 14 places!!!

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
176 (RealTimeRPI) up 15!
179 (RPIForecast) up 15!
188 (Sagarin) up 5!
139 (ESPN BPI) down 1

Average of 170, or up 8 slots!

HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE:  the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys, but obviously only one matters now:  joy!!! (in Sven Hoëk voice)

Probability of auto-bid--previous % in parens
Valparaiso 59.48% (46.66)
Detroit 30.92% (38.29)
Green Bay 4.66% (9.91)
WSU 3.80% (3.56)
YSU 0.31% (0.58)
UIC 0.17% (0.44)
Loyola 0.58% (0.45)
CSU 0.08% (0.10)
Milwaukee 0.00%.  Yesterday was just a blip, sadly.

So...things are looking up.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

SeedCast The Third

Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences below us. 
The question:  are they higher than Valpo? 

I weight RPI * 3 and also average Sagarin and BPI to simulate committee considerations like "last 12 D1 games", etc.  If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney?  If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?



Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15. (Why: because 4 16 seeds get "1st round" games + 2 more go right to what bbtds calls "the 2nd rd")
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.

Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers:  we're safely higher than 13 teams--indeed, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and while we are ahead of S F Austin, Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance both pick them ahead of us because


Because I'm a Homer homer, I ignore that fact and kept SFA  where they belong.  Also because this moves us up a seed.

CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:


Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) now rates SFA as a 14 and us as a 13 right now (opp:  NEW MEXICO REMATCH...wait, they're not supposed to let that happen necessarily, are they?). 
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament
Crashing the Dance has, as mentioned, SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 (opp:  Marquette)
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

[chef]

Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Akron, and La Tech also teams to root against. If one team from that list and either Bucknell or SF Austin loses, Valpo would likely get a 13 seed. Of course, the Crusaders would need to win the HL Tournament for any of this to matter.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

"RootFer 2"

This new invention gives you all the conferences that matter:  conferences with one or two bids that have teams better than us, or about as good, that need to be knocked off For the Sake of the Uhlan.

In the first table, the conference in question is followed by a column with the leader (and teams that are also bad ideas because they would also be ahead of us).  The middle column is teams that would be better but still not for certain sure because they would probably pass us if they won. 

Thus, the fourth column:  THE GREAT WHITE HOPE. This is the best team in the conference that it is also safe to root for!  Finally we have when they hold their tourney, in chronological order for easy reference.  I'll update it weekly also.

The second table is all the conferences that are already in the rearview, regardless.

The third table is the teams it's safe to root for in the major conferences.

[bbtds]

2 more go right to what bbtds calls "the 2nd rd")

I didn't start calling the round after the First Four the 2nd Round. That comes from the NCAA. We just happen to be in the same city. Maybe because I know some people that work at the NCAA and the NFHS I feel a proclivity to go along with what the NCAA calls things. While a number of you on the board love to pooh pooh the NCAA. By the way Valpo helps make up the whole body that is the NCAA because they are a member institution.

Do you think there are some schools that detest Mark LaBarbera because he's on the Baseball Tournament Selection Committee and some of his decisions have led to some schools not making the NCAA baseball tournament?

[wh]

Just wanted to put it out there that my conference season wrap-up blog has been kindly approved and published on the blog page--give it a view here!

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2013/03/05/horizon-league-the-con-in-prose-2013/

thanks.

Outstanding piece!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Outstanding piece!

Thanks!  I need to give you a shout-out in all my stuff!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  0-0

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  A plethora of graduation open houses, a myriad of Drew coaching rumors, wiping the booger that was Loyola on the restroom wall that is Missouri Valley, Valpo trolling Detroit via Oakland, the immolation of Miley Cyrus' career

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  65 (of 347 D-I) RealTime (power ratings not rpi at this point but possibly just the same as last year)
RPIForecast:   136  RPIForecast
Sagarin:        nothing yet with a rating of 79.34  Sagarin
ESPN / BPI:  ...hasn't started yet.  probably a wise choice, as the longer they dither, the less likely they are to be wrong! right? how very Millennial.

ridiculous:  2 nothings, 1 last year, and a 136. So...136.

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
181 (RealTimeRPI)
324 (RPIForecast)
(Sagarin) nuthin
(ESPN BPI) yep

Average of 253.

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: ...they have as much on this as you have after paying your health insurance premium
RPIForecast:  15-13 (9-7 conf)
RPIForecast projects an end-season RPI of 136 and SOS of 143.  I know the former seems identical to the above, but right now they have us at 324, and that's ridiculous.  of course, so are early-season rpi numbers.

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We have a 0.02% chance of going 23-5!
OUT-OF-THE-BONUS:  Also the same chance of going 5-23.  MATH

% of a win next ten+ daze:
vs MSU 62% (+3.7 pts)
@ Illinois 16% (-11.8 pts)  (NEWSFLASH: toughest game of year also NEWSFLASH home vs UWM for easiest--78%)
@ OHIO 31% (-5.8 pts)

Both RPIForecast and RealTimeRPI have the HL 12th among conferences.

Here's how RPIForecast sees it shaking out before anybody tips off in a game that counts:
projRPI  team          projSOS record       conf  current RPI
127   Cleveland St.   139   15-14      9-7      52
134   Oakland           82   13-15      8-8      214
136   Wright St.      256   18-10      10-6      347
141   Green Bay      195   15-9      9-7      105
148   Valparaiso      143   15-13      9-7      324
163   Detroit          140   14-15      8-8      70
177   Youngstown St.183   14-14      8-8      351
215   Illinois Chicago   164   11-15      7-9      119
245   Milwaukee      204   11-18      6-10      171

*You are allowed to wonder how the collective in-conference record is +4 over .500

Non con:
WSU 9-3  TOUGHEST: @24 Georgetown 13%    EASIEST: vs.330 Alcorn St 98%
CSU 7-6  TOUGHEST:  @10 Kentucky duh 7%   EASIEST: vs.243 Ball St 81%
Valpo 6-6 TOUGHEST: @62 Illinois 16%     EASIEST: vs.210 James Madison 75%
YSU 6-6   TOUGHEST:  @41 Pitt 9%   EASIEST: @(!)326 UMKC 85%
Milwaukee 6-7  TOUGHEST:  @19 Wisconsin 3%   EASIEST: neut.330 Alabama St 82%
Detroit 6-7  TOUGHEST:  @24 Connecticut 9%     EASIEST:  vs.278 Bethune Cookman 84%
Green Bay 5-3  TOUGHEST:  vs.(!)19 Wisconsin 25%    EASIEST: vs.252 Tennessee Tech 86%
UIC 4-6  TOUGHEST:  neut.62 Illinois 16%    EASIEST: @(!)300 Eastern Illinois 65%
Oakland 4-8  TOUGHEST:  @18 North Carolina; @16 Gonzaga; neut.11 Michigan St; 7%  EASIEST: vs.227 Eastern Michigan 28%

BONUS:  A look at (effective-)conference mate #156 Central Florida
At home we have a 61% chance; on the road, 38%.  Basically we're equal--the difference is the site.
UCF predicted to be cellar-dwellers in the American, ahead of only Rutgers (good luck in the B1G, btw! heh.gif)
12-15, 6-12 conference.

[talksalot]

one small thing... we are playing Ball State (12/4)... so wouldn't that be our weakest non-con opponent at #243? 

[covufan]

Sagarin starting rankings:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Massey College Basketball comparison:

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Teamrankings:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other

Massey:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb&sub=NCAA I

For predictions, Massey has us going 20-10 in the 30 games scheduled:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=203290

The RealTimeRPI site GAMER has us going 22-6 in Division I games:

http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/281_Men.html?Valparaiso

Teamrankings has us going 16-14 and 8-8 in HL play:  (scroll down to HL Projections)

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

[covufan]

one small thing... we are playing Ball State (12/4)... so wouldn't that be our weakest non-con opponent at #243? 

My guess would be E. Tennessee St.  Ball State, ETSU, Loyola Marymount and James Madison are all lowest on someone's rankings.

[covufan]

And Teamrankings stats and stuff for toughest games, easiest games and projected win%


http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections