PPS

[HC]

Player            PPS+       PPS-    Overall PPS
Alec Peters            1.368      0.325   1.043
Darien Walker     0.97         0.374   0.596
Tevonn Walker     0.932     0.389   0.543
David Skara     1.227     0.3   0.927
Keith Carter     0.667     0.297   0.37
Vashil Fernandez     0.927     0.257   0.67
E.Victor Nickerson  0.939    0.327   0.612
Jubril Adekoya   0.674         0.298   0.376
Nick Davidson   0.5         0.3   0.2
Max Joseph           0.47         0.434   0.036
David Chadwick   0.667         0.378   0.289
         
Team                    0.891     0.328   0.563
Opponents            0.679     0.347   0.332

Shouldn't be too hard to figure out who should be starting and who should be sitting. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WELCOME BACK!!!

How do returnees' numbers compare to last year?

[FWalum]

I understand the importance of statistical analysis and yours seems to be as good as any, but many times it falls short in showing a players importance on the defensive side of the ball.  IMO defense is perhaps the biggest reason this team performed at the level it did this weekend (that and lights out shooting).  Carter and T. Walker, in particular, seem to be very disruptive and prevented teams from establishing any kind of offensive flow.  Until something like your PPS takes into account factors such as, how many time a player prevented a split, prevented a pass because they were in the passing lane, prevented penetration because they stayed in front, prevented the start of a set because of ball pressure, and so on and so on, then I prefer the eyeball test (or in the case of this weekend the ear test ) most of the time.  Do you really think that Keith Carter's performance (especially over the last 6 games) is only a 0.37? Not trying to be negative on your PPS analysis, just want your honest opinion not based on statistical data.

[HC]

Some things, like hustle plays, can't be measured by statistics because they can be done by anybody (no skill required, just effort).  I feel like Carter's score is right on the money. He leads the team in turnovers (yes i know he has the ball the most), is 3 for 11 from the foul line, has committed the most fouls, and leads the team in minutes played.  Point guards, especially those that don't really score a lot of points (see Erik Buggs) are going to have a hard time scoring high if they don't do everything else really REALLY well.

LAA, I'm not sure how they compare to last year.  I will do some digging at some point and look.

[HC]

Player                      PPS+      PPS-     Overall PPS
Alec Peters                      1.351     0.356          0.995
Darien Walker              0.812     0.363           0.449
Tevonn Walker              0.89     0.361           0.529
David Skara              0.856     0.288           0.568
Keith Carter              0.758     0.287           0.471
Vashil Fernandez              0.924     0.264           0.66
E.Victor Nickerson      0.938     0.401           0.537
Jubril Adekoya              0.599     0.307           0.292
Nick Davidson              0.552     0.269           0.283
Max Joseph                      0.5             0.397           0.103
David Chadwick              0.527     0.319           0.208
         
Team                              0.88     0.328           0.552
Opponents                      0.709     0.346           0.363

I'm not concerned that the numbers have dropped a little since the last time I ran them even though we've played some crummy opponents.  I don't think I'm as high on this team as some of the rest of you, I'm hoping like heck that you are the ones who are correct.  Here are a few of my concerns: 1) Nickerson continues to make really bad decisions when he is handling the ball, hopefully thats just the rust - but he's been back long enough the rust I would think would be gone.  2) Our free throw shooting outside of Nickerson, Skara, and Peters stinks. 

A couple things I'll be watching for: as the season progresses will Tevonn Walker start to run out of gas as freshmen sometimes do.  He is so explosive and needs to be that second scorer his fair share of the time.  Will Jubril snap out of it?  Without really looking his score fell pretty significantly since the last run.  If he is going to continue to be a liability on offense he needs to shut it down defensively.  I'll be interested to see if Carter can continue to play at the level he's played the last handful of games when he has to lock down some of the talented guards in the HL.  Will someone take the #2 scorer spot or will it be by committee? 

I'm excited for the important games to finally start! 

[VULB#62]

I share your trepidation about this year's team based on the FTs but also the TOs. 

In 14 games we have committed 186 TOs vs. our opponents' 198 TOs. That's a +/- of -12.  Over 14 games that a delta of less than 1 TO/game differential in our favor.  That's horrible for a 12-2 team.  What is really discouraging are the figures against the ham & eggers on the schedule (IUSB, ARK-PB, UMaine, Trinity and Goshen): VU TO's 85, opponent's TO's 89.  That's -4 over 5 games -- again less than 1 TO/game differential.  A truly good team would not squander points at the FT line and certainly would be dominant in TO differential.   I think both of these characteristics are reflective of a team that has not yet matured.  Against consistent, tough HL opposition, these two erratic traits will cost us.  That's why I picked us to finish 3rd.  But like HC, I hope I'm wrong in my projection and that the team will gain added maturity game by game.

[classof2014]

I would say the reason for the high turnover numbers against weaker opponents is because we tend to play our reserves more. Since our reserves don't play as much they don't have the chemistry that the regular rotation does, which equates to more turnovers. The FT numbers are a different story on the other hand, the two best teams in the league right now are the two worst in FT percentage, GB is hitting a measly 60%, while we're up to 65% and UIC who is the worst team in the league is the best at FTs about 75%. If we're at 70% come season close I'll be content.

[vu72]

I share your trepidation about this year's team based on the FTs but also the TOs. 

In 14 games we have committed 186 TOs vs. our opponents' 198 TOs. That's a +/- of -12.  Over 14 games that a delta of less than 1 TO/game differential in our favor.  That's horrible for a 12-2 team.  What is really discouraging are the figures against the ham & eggers on the schedule (IUSB, ARK-PB, UMaine, Trinity and Goshen): VU TO's 85, opponent's TO's 89.  That's -4 over 5 games -- again less than 1 TO/game differential.  A truly good team would not squander points at the FT line and certainly would be dominant in TO differential.   I think both of these characteristics are reflective of a team that has not yet matured.  Against consistent, tough HL opposition, these two erratic traits will cost us.  That's why I picked us to finish 3rd.  But like HC, I hope I'm wrong in my projection and that the team will gain added maturity game by game.

I guess I view these stats alittle differently.  We have a +1.05 asst to TO ratio, BUT, our opponents have a .77 asst to TO ratio.  We may be turning the ball over more than we would like BUT, we are forcing many more turnovers from these other guys.  Historically we have always (under Bryce) turned it over.  Last year, for the entire year, we had a .86 ratio.  Even is the Rowdy year, we were at .96 while our opponents were at a +1.10!!!   Much worse then what we are doing today and that team turned out pretty solid.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

In 14 games we have committed 186 TOs vs. our opponents' 198 TOs. That's a +/- of -12.  Over 14 games that a delta of less than 1 TO/game differential in our favor. 

this is actually cause for rejoicing because

We may be turning the ball over more than we would like BUT, we are forcing many more turnovers from these other guys.  Historically we have always (under Bryce) turned it over. 

[VULB#62]

I guess I view these stats a little differently.  We have a +1.05 asst to TO ratio, BUT, our opponents have a .77 asst to TO ratio.  We may be turning the ball over more than we would like BUT, we are forcing many more turnovers from these other guys.  Historically we have always (under Bryce) turned it over.  Last year, for the entire year, we had a .86 ratio.  Even is the Rowdy year, we were at .96 while our opponents were at a +1.10!!!   Much worse then what we are doing today and that team turned out pretty solid.

Could that be attributable to the fact that our opponents are not shooting well against our defense, and therefore the assists are way down.  Despite that, we are still committing just 12 fewer TOs than they are?   If the five ham & eggers could shoot, we'd be in a lot worse shape, IMO.  I guess this reaction all comes from my FB background where TO's are game changers.  Valpo football being a good case in point.  For 4 years the team was not coached to be disciplined -- and TOs and sloppy play abounded.  Cecchini comes in and in one season slashes TO's by emphasizing discipline on both sides of the ball.  It kept us in all but maybe 4 games and we won 4 of those remaining 8. 

I do not pretend to understand all of the various stats used in BB.  I also do not see the team play that often, so, I don't know what kinds of turnovers are happening (poor judgment errors, vs. forced passes vs., say, stone hands, vs. whatever).  You guys who are at the game would see those patterns.  But as other posters have stated, it seems to be a characteristic of Bryce's teams.  Is it something that can be coached out of the players (or can better discipline be coached into them?).  Just asking.....

[Valpofan00]

I guess I view these stats a little differently.  We have a +1.05 asst to TO ratio, BUT, our opponents have a .77 asst to TO ratio.  We may be turning the ball over more than we would like BUT, we are forcing many more turnovers from these other guys.  Historically we have always (under Bryce) turned it over.  Last year, for the entire year, we had a .86 ratio.  Even is the Rowdy year, we were at .96 while our opponents were at a +1.10!!!   Much worse then what we are doing today and that team turned out pretty solid.

Could that be attributable to the fact that our opponents are not shooting well against our defense, and therefore the assists are way down.  Despite that, we are still committing just 12 fewer TOs than they are?   If the five ham & eggers could shoot, we'd be in a lot worse shape, IMO.  I guess this reaction all comes from my FB background where TO's are game changers.  Valpo football being a good case in point.  For 4 years the team was not coached to be disciplined -- and TOs and sloppy play abounded.  Cecchini comes in and in one season slashes TO's by emphasizing discipline on both sides of the ball.  It kept us in all but maybe 4 games and we won 4 of those remaining 8. 

I do not pretend to understand all of the various stats used in BB.  I also do not see the team play that often, so, I don't know what kinds of turnovers are happening (poor judgment errors, vs. forced passes vs., say, stone hands, vs. whatever).  You guys who are at the game would see those patterns.  But as other posters have stated, it seems to be a characteristic of Bryce's teams.  Is it something that can be coached out of the players (or can better discipline be coached into them?).  Just asking.....

I would not mind to see Bryce get pissed and scream at our players a little

[StlVUFan]

I would not mind to see Bryce get pissed and scream at our players a little

He has been.  Maybe you haven't seen it yet, but he has done it this year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

TO's are game changers

witness:
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1772.0

my post on the matter:
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1772.msg42877#msg42877

my earlier thread on the matter:
http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1720.msg41191#msg41191

WE ARE SO MUCH BETTER THAN IN THE PAST

...

SO FAR

[historyman]

I would not mind to see Bryce get pissed and scream at our players a little

He has been.  Maybe you haven't seen it yet, but he has done it this year.

Agreed. There are timeouts that Bryce gets extremely vocal and shows his anger at the players. The good thing is that Bryce will not let that spill over to the next timeout. In general he is calm and he is always teaching his players.

[FWalum]

sitting behind the bench during the IPFW game, I can tell you that he really got into the players when we had the early slow start.  Perhaps the most agitated that I have ever seen him.  In that sequence there was also a questionable call and he hopped right on the ref and I thought he was pretty close to getting a T.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

HC, regarding PPS...I know you have benchmarks for what's a bad, ok, good, great score, whatnot (perhaps you could put them together again).

Could you also tweak it to be position-specific?  The baselines, not the equation itself.  Reason being I'm wondering if maybe point guard scores, for example, are a little lower than the average because of the position itself being one of greater turnovers due to handling the ball more?  Or do you think it all pretty much balances out?

[HC]

I think the baseline scores are pretty much the same for any position. If you are an average point guard you will certainly be exposed as such though. Sure they have more chances to turn it over, but also have more chances to assist, steal it from the opposing pg, and score.

I feel like one of the biggest strength of my PPS is that it doesn't allow a mediocre player to hide behind hustle plays.

Baseline scores: .7 and up - all conference candidate
.8 and up - POTY candidate
.9 and up - draft prospect