2013 vs. 2015

[vu84v2]

Whatif sports site does simulated games between teams based on stats. They do not have 2014-2015 in the site yet. I ran the 2012-2013 team against the 2001-2002 team (next best Valpo team available) with the lineups adjusted to account for likely playing time (i.e. no minutes for Falu). In three games, 2001-2002 won all three times. Barton and Broekhoff always had similar games, but Stovall or Ortiz would always come up with the difference making performances.

[a3uge]

Hopefully the 2015 team is a much better NCAA tourney team than the 2013 team was. Only two players showed up for that game - Buggs and Boggs. Rowdy and KVW were terrible that game. Rowdy shot worse than Alec did last game and was missing shots by a mile. I'll give KVW a bit of a pass - Nix and Payne are abnormal physical specimens.

The 2012 loss kind of stung a bit more after that game. We could have gained some legitimate postseason experience that year, and maybe could have played a bit more loose.

[classof2014]

That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.

[atkins]

This thread is fun.  Interesting to see the analyses of the various players' strengths and weaknesses.  We were abysmal against Michigan State and looked like a team of middle schoolers against a high school varsity team.  Ryan had a terrible game (which was unusual for Ryan), but Alec has similarly looked lost during some big games against good teams this year.  Of course, Alec is only a sophomore, so he cannot be expected to be on all of the time.  I do think that Ryan is the more-complete basketball player, but Alec has many weapons, as well. 

My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime. 

[a3uge]

My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

[Kyle321n]

My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

I hope we don't play a school who has one of the 50 state capitals in it's name. Do you know how good Carson City Community College is? And don't underrate Juneau Area College of Knifework and Associate  Silver Smiths.

[Valpower]

That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.

Letting a mid-major shoot from outside, even the best ones, has got to be a pretty standard we-dare-you strategy from majors.  It's a pretty good gamble that mid-majors will be dealing with the most jitters and, thus, will not shoot well initially.  Now, if they do hit those early ones, they've got a good chance of turning the tables later in the game.  Whereas the tourney environment may not be as daunting to major programs, pesky mid-majors staying close in the waning minutes of the game must be throat-tightening.

[covufan]

My only hope is that we do not have to play a game against any large school with one of the fifty states in its name.  In that event, we might as well warm up the bus before halftime.

This is one season where this statement is just not true.  From the bracketmatrix.com site, I wouldn't want these five (but we shouldn't get them):

1 Kentucky
1 Virginia
2 Wisconsin
2 Arizona
2 Kansas

I think we can compete, but would rather not play these teams:

3 Maryland
3 Iowa State
3 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina

I think we can upset these teams:

4 Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
5 Utah
6 Arkansas

I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Michigan State
7 Virginia Commonwealth
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
8 Oregon
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana

[a3uge]

That team lived by the 3 and died by the 3.

That day they died by the 3. If I recall we had plenty of open looks but they weren't falling. My guess is that Izzo adjusted the gameplan to pack it in, don't recall the defense Michigan St played it's only a guess. Due to that we were missing a ton of outside shots. We were only 7-25 from outside and 19-54 for the game, so nearly 50% of our shots were 3s, and 3 of the 3s were made by Boggs.

My guess is that Izzo basically told his team if they keep missing we'll let them keep shooting.

Sadly, that game was probably their worst performance of the year.

Letting a mid-major shoot from outside, even the best ones, has got to be a pretty standard we-dare-you strategy from majors.  It's a pretty good gamble that mid-majors will be dealing with the most jitters and, thus, will not shoot well initially.  Now, if they do hit those early ones, they've got a good chance of turning the tables later in the game.  Whereas the tourney environment may not be as daunting to major programs, pesky mid-majors staying close in the waning minutes of the game must be throat-tightening.

On the flip side, upsets happen. All the time. Irrationality. Like Jabari Parker and Duke getting knocked off by MERCER. In that game, Mercer made just 5 threes. Lower seeds have 0 pressure to win, and higher profile teams have added pressure to not suffer an embarrassing loss. Having watched at least 20 minutes of every single Thurs-Friday tournament game for the past 3 years, I can tell you that higher profile teams are just as likely to play tight, if not tighter in the first half before stepping on the gas pedal in the second half. It happens to even the 1 seeds every so often, and often to the 2 seeds. Talent most often wins out, but I don't think nerves are exclusive to mid majors. With that said, there are certain teams that just don't get upset in the early rounds like Michigan State.

[wh]

I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Michigan State
7 Virginia Commonwealth
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
8 Oregon
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?

[Kyle321n]

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?

I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?

[wh]

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?

I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?

Butler is one of the 7 extra states that Obama visited:

Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States

[covufan]

No Butler on your "I'm ready for these teams" list?

I wasn't a geography major, but I don't know the state of Butler. Is that one of those western ones out by the Dakotas?

Butler is one of the 7 extra states that Obama visited:

Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States

Wow!  That is impressive.  Visiting 57 states!  I'm sure he meant to say 47, but still??!?  I remember when Bush the elder was campaigning on Labor Day (can't remember if it was '88 or '92), and said "September 7th, a day that will live in infamy".  I'm sure glad most of my mistakes were not caught on camera and loaded on YouTube!

I'm thinking that since Butler is neither a state nor a city, I'm going with these 7 states (from the projected NCAA Tournament field):

Louisville  (KY, Papa John's State)
Wichita State (KS, State of Confusion)
Georgetown (DC, Colonial State)
Southern Methodist (TX, a 'Southern' state, right?)
Providence (RI, Divine State)
San Diego State (CA, Dude State)
Boise State (ID, Smurf State)

[justducky]

So if Butler St, Baylor St, Louisville St, and Providence St actually existed could we compete with any of them?   

[wh]

Wow!  That is impressive.  Visiting 57 states!  I'm sure he meant to say 47...

Of course he did, but 47 would not have provided any cover for my egregious error! 

[covufan]

Of course he did, but 47 would not have provided any cover for my aggregous error! 

And here I thought you were posting to set up the use of the '57 States' video!

[FWalum]

This is one season where this statement is just not true.  From the bracketmatrix.com site, I wouldn't want these five (but we shouldn't get them):

1 Kentucky
1 Virginia
2 Wisconsin
2 Arizona
2 Kansas

I think we can compete, but would rather not play these teams:

3 Maryland
3 Iowa State
3 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina

7 Michigan State
7 Iowa
8 Ohio State
9 North Carolina State
9 LSU

I think we can upset these teams:

4 Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
5 Utah
6 Arkansas
6 Butler

I'm ready for these teams, whenever we might play them in the tournament:

7 Virginia Commonwealth
8 Oregon
10 Colorado State
10 Georgia
10 Oklahoma State
11 Texas
11 Mississippi  ** I think we'd get much publicity if we were to play Ole Miss in the second round
12 Indiana I think IU is a head case waiting to happen

Unfortunately for us this is a real case of confidence.  I don't buy that we should be playing loose because we don't have anything to lose.  For some reason we feel a ton of pressure to beat power conference teams and rarely seem to play to our potential. Do we feel pressure to recreate the old magic?  I don't know but it certainly seems to be the case.

[valpopal]

Oren plays a simulated game between 2013 and 2015 teams. Final Score   2015: 62    2013: 58

http://www.nwitimes.com/blogs/sports/valparaiso-university/simulating-the-crusaders-vs/article_31e4292a-cc5c-11e4-aae9-9f9da0196f94.html

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I sense a Paul blogpost about that game simulator between the two teams in our future.

[historyman]

I sense a Paul blogpost about that game simulator between the two teams in our future.

You had the '15 team also? Me too!