How To Increase RPI Today

[talksalot]

But wait. We only play 18 games. How can we be 18-1?
            
THAT was my point...thanks #62...
~~captain obvious         
                  
                  
                     
                     
                     
                        

[agibson]

Ha!  Too obvious for me. Too late at night maybe, I missed it entirely.

Sorry for the stats 101.

[Just Sayin]

Some numbers to make some people realize that "scoreboard watching" might be a waste of time.

This is a bit simplified, but that's only to make the numbers easier to digest. It assumes that all teams play exactly 30 games.

------------------------
The RPI Formula ..... (.250)WP + (.500)OWP + (.250)OOWP

The "PERFECT" RPI is 1.000.
------------------------

If every team started at .000 and got "points" added to their RPI each time they, their opponents or their opponents' opponents won, each game would be worth the following:

WP = .250/30 = .008333 points per win
OWP = .500/900 = .000555 points per win
OOWP = .250/27000 = .00000925 points per win


So, while each game does matter...sitting on the couch and following along with the Portland State/Montana State game and rooting for Portland state because Oregon played them is probably a waste of your time.

Not when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.

[bbtds]

Not when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.

Not according to Frank Stoeber the roller of this





http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543

[Just Sayin]

Not when you can discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously with calculating tomorrow's RPI.

Not according to Frank Stoeber the roller of this





http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/8543

That's tough to beat.

[motowntitan]

This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.

Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week.  Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. 

[a3uge]

This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.

Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week.  Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. 

Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.

I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]

[talksalot]

Original Posting 12/23... updating to current:

the Valpo Nolan RPI is 24, SOS 87;

OOC   12/23   1/10:
IPFW     83   76
Iona    160   149
Rhody  125   95
Oregon   18   11
Ore St 35   31
Belmont   92   108
Ball St   279   199
Ind St   171   142
Chcg St   269   320
Mo State 239   220

[justducky]

Original Posting 12/23... updating to current:

the Valpo Nolan RPI is 24, SOS 87;

OOC   12/23   1/10:
IPFW     83   76
Iona    160   149
Rhody  125   95
Oregon   18   11
Ore St 35   31
Belmont   92   108
Ball St   279   199
Ind St   171   142
Chcg St   269   320
Mo State 239   220

This sums up much of our recent rise. Our OOC foes are starting to pile up some wins.

An Oregon home win tonight over #61 Stanford could trigger further WN-RPI and Pomeroy #19 improvements. Lets enjoy it while we can because we could soon start to drop even after we win.

Big test coming up for Iona on Friday night. They will play at home vs Monmouth who was recently sitting at #21. I still expect Iona (now near full strength) to mow through most of their conference schedule to reemerge comfortably in the top 100. A win over Monmouth might cover much of that ground in one night. Even a loss will probably raise their RPI.

I don't know what to think about IPFW, Ind St, and Ball St but all have met or exceeded my early expectations.   

[justducky]

An Oregon home win tonight over #61 Stanford could trigger further WN-RPI and Pomeroy #19 improvements. Lets enjoy it while we can because we could soon start to drop even after we win.

Oregon wins over Stanford 71-58.  That pushes them into Warren Nolan #10 and us to #22. Our leap from 23 to 22 was over Providence by .0001 point. Difficult stretches coming up for Oregon, Oregon St, and Rhode Island so I expect this to be about our lowest RPI rating.

Certainly has been a fun week of basketball. 

[talksalot]

RPI Rk   Horizon League   Conf   All   RPI   SOS Rk   SOS
Up 22 From Last Week      22    Valparaiso   3-0     11-3    0.6210   88    0.5402
Up 5 From Last Week   154    Green Bay   3-1     8-6    0.5091   252    0.4637
Down 1 From Last Week      156    Wright St.   2-1     6-8    0.5081   127    0.5166
Down 40 From Last Week   157    Detroit   3-1     7-6    0.5079   130    0.5144
Down 77 From Last Week   166    Oakland   2-2     10-7    0.5023   233    0.4706
Down 1 From Last Week      172    Milwaukee   3-1     10-5    0.4975   309    0.4384
Down 42 From Last Week    207    Cleveland St.   0-4     3-12    0.4713   48    0.5617
Up 47 From Last Week   215    Youngstown St.   2-2     5-10    0.4659   170    0.5004
Down 1 From Last Week   345    Ill. Chicago   0-3     0-12    0.3660   192    0.488


and the projections from RealTime:

Valpo 18-0
Milwa 11-7
Oakla 11-7
GrBay 11-7
Detro  10-8
Young 8-10
Cleve 5-13
NorKy 3-15
IllCh 2-16

so... if that works out... we would clinch ... wow... like early.

[wh]

This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.

Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week.  Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. 

Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.

I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]

I see your point, but I think maybe  you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.

[a3uge]

This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.

Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week.  Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. 

Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.

I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]

I see your point, but I think maybe  you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.

I wonder what our expected RPI would be if you replace the bottom 3 Horizon League teams with the, say, bottom three Summit teams...

[a3uge]

This is how bad the RPI is for the HL.

Detroit has wins over CSU and UIC this week, but their RPI Delta drops 21 since last week.  Note: That also includes the secondary bump they get from YSU's two wins at Oakland and at home to GB. 

Agreed, but when you finish 4-5 OOC, you can't lay your RPI troubles on the Horizon. It would take Detroit only losing 2 more games (about a 1% probability per sagarin) to break the top 100 RPI. Can't ever expect the Horizon to carry you when you finish below .500 outside of conference.

I'm sure you wouldn't disagree with me there - afterall, UDM received first place vote [emoji14]

I see your point, but I think maybe  you're being a little too harsh. The truth is our infamous HL bottom feeders are damaging everyone's RPI. You can say Detroit didn't help itself as much as it could have in OOC games, but that doesn't change the basic premise that the HL's infamous bottom feeders are killing the RPI's of everyone they LOSE to - not BEAT, that's a given - LOSE to. Nobody's looking for them to "carry" anyone. Just start by doing something - anything - to improve your pathetic program.

I wonder what our expected RPI would be if you replace the bottom 3 Horizon League teams with the, say, bottom three Summit teams...

Okay, just for you wh, I did the math because you asked. I agree with you that the bottom teams are dragging the Horizon down, but it affects us way more than Detroit. If Valpo makes the tournament, the RPI hit could drop Valpo from a 10-11 seed to a 12 seed. If Detroit makes it, the RPI impact is the difference between a 15 seed and a 15 seed. See what I mean?

So here's the results.

I punched the numbers in and replaced the UIC and NKU with IUPUI and Western Illinois. Assuming wins to those four games and standard Sagarin probability to the remaining schedule it simulated like this:

Without UIC/NKU:
W-L/RPI/SOS
24-5/19/129

With:
W-L/RPI/SOS
24-5/27/169

So that's a full 8 points, which could propel Valpo into the top 25. Yeah, that sucks.

[justducky]

The Math (Simple Version) – See below for why some numbers may not always match:
25% of team winning percentage
50% of opponents winning percentage (games against your team are excluded in this area only)
25% of opponents' opponents winning percentage

Thus, if your team is 8-2, their winning percentage is .800. Multiply that by 25% and you get .200

If your opponents are all 7-3, their combined record would be 70-30. Subtract 8 losses and 2 wins because you take out results against your team, and that record changes to 68-22, good for a winning percentage of .756. After multiplying this number by 50%, you get .378.

If all of your opponents' opponents are 4-6, this is a total of 400-600 (ten games, ten teams, ten opponents). The winning percentage of these teams is .400, of which you take 25%, good for .100.

In this scenario, .200 + .378 + .100 would give your team an RPI rating of .678.

Notice in this example (and any you could create), that it DOES NOT MATTER which teams your team beats or their opponents beat, only the winning percentages. So, it's not a matter of who you beat for the RPI, just how many. (The who comes into play when you get their winning percentages factored in). Thus, there is no such thing as a "win that will really help our RPI".

Understand that my saying "does not matter which teams" only applies to a team's own schedule (ie: 15-15 is the same winning percentage, regardless of which of their games they win and lose). It ALWAYS matters how good the teams you play are.


The Math (Complicated Version Details):
The formula that the NCAA uses has a few tweaks to it. Over time, research has shown that the home team wins about 70% of the time, so the NCAA chose to adjust their actual formula.

Home Wins: .6 wins
Home Losses: 1.4 losses

Road Wins: 1.4 wins
Road Losses: .6 losses

Neutral site games did not change.

I won't go back through an entire example, but you can see how it would affect a team's record. To the NCAA RPI formula, Valpo has a 8.6-1.8 record thus far (1/7/2016)

Too much time on my hands so I've taken another look at the NCAA adjusted RPI versions.

Our updated VU number now stands at 11.4 wins vs 1.8 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 86.36% as compared to our true % of 78.57 (11 wins divided by 14 games played).
Just for fun Ive added 2 of my favorites who pretty much refuse to play any OOC road games. They are---------

The Butler Bulldogs!!!!!    They have an adjusted 10 wins vs 4.4 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 69.44% as compared to their 75% true number (12 wins divided by 16 games played). and-----------

The Irish from ND!!!!!!    They have an adjusted 8 wins vs 5 losses for an adjusted winning percentage of 61.53% as compared to their 66.6% true number   (10 wins divided by 15 games played).

So where am I going with this? Haven't got the foggiest     other than to wonder if the resulting adjusted RPI numbers sufficiently reflect and thereby negate advantages garnered by the Power 5's refusal to engage in any form of fair scheduling practices.

How much input were mid majors given in establishment of selection committee criteria or was this something handed down from above?

[ValpoHoops]

How much input were mid majors given in establishment of selection committee criteria or was this something handed down from above?

Historically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.

[justducky]

Historically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.

Thats not what I asked but you already know that.

If you would like to make any off the record comments or observations feel free to PM me. I am very curious if you view the process as totally fair and impartial.

[ValpoHoops]

Historically, the home team wins approximately 70% of games. That's where the 1.4 and 0.6 was developed from.

Thats not what I asked but you already know that.

If you would like to make any off the record comments or observations feel free to PM me. I am very curious if you view the process as totally fair and impartial.

Sorry, misread the question you asked.

No, I don't have any idea how much input the mids were given, but I would guess its not much. The NCAA is a big boys club, and they allow us minions to participate, as long as we follow their rules. The power conferences have figured out how to game the RPI, and until the committee actually uses all of the other metrics, they will continue to have that advantage. And, once they do use other metrics, the majors will simply figure out how to game them, too.