2015-16 Season

historyman · November 24, 2015, 05:38:49 PM

Quote from: sliman on November 10, 2015, 02:53:27 PM--E.C. Matthews, G, Rhode Island. One of the nation's best shooting guards averaged nearly 17 points per game last season. --AJ English, G, Iona. Was the only player in the nation to average 20 points, five assists and five rebounds last season. --Craig Bradshaw, G, Belmont. Made a name for himself against Virginia in the NCAA Tournament. Expect to hear from him some more.

And yet the only team that has beaten us SO FAR, Oregon, didn't have anyone on that list. Although, I would say that Brooks or Dorsey could have easily made that list.

justducky · November 26, 2015, 10:36:54 AM

I had expected Carter, Fernandez, Nickerson and Peters to all have breakout years showing great improvements. So far I would characterize their contributions as being more plodding and workmanlike.

The real eye-catching flashes have all been provided by T. Walker and Hammink. Looking forward a healthy David Skara could also produce some high-lite reel moments.

We needed him at Oregon!

VULB#62 · November 26, 2015, 12:36:08 PM

Quote from: justducky on November 26, 2015, 10:36:54 AM
I had expected Carter, Fernandez, Nickerson and Peters to all have breakout years showing great improvements. So far I would characterize their contributions as being more plodding and workmanlike. The real eye-catching flashes have all been provided by T. Walker and Hammink. Looking forward a healthy David Skara could also produce some high-lite reel moments. We needed him at Oregon!

Could part of this be that Bryce's offense is set up got the best shot, not necessarily the best player? By reputation Alec draws the best defending big - to the benefit of Tevonn and Shane. AP is playing very forcefully but within the 'system' and his unselfishness fits into it. Great team concept. But there will come a time when AP-specific plays will be needed and he will have to take the team on his shoulders. Hope they are preparing for that scenario. EVN is still recovering, remember. Nice ride so far, huh?

valpocleveland · November 26, 2015, 07:24:52 PM

I think that expecting 4 guys to have breakout seasons is unrealistic. We all hope that the whole roster has break out seasons but if they all steadily improve and you get 1 breakout they are gonna be tough to beat all season.

VULB#62 · November 26, 2015, 08:25:33 PM

Exactly. This may be more about the whole team breaking out at a much higher level than last season. Whatever, just keep rolling.

justducky · December 10, 2015, 11:01:30 AM

It is becoming obvious that we are a much different team without Tevonn. When he is absent from our man defense its effectiveness is diminished significantly. This may be why we are now going with more of the long armed perimeter zone. While this zone has been very effective I think Bryce would prefer to not rely on it.

His absence on offense is also noticeable. EVN, Shane and Darien are all shooting 25% or below at the 3 and defenders are giving them more and more room beyond the 3 point arc, thus reducing their opportunities to drive. As good as our backups are nobody can replace the total Tevonn package.

I have no knowledge of how he is recovering but we may not need him until the Belmont trip so who knows?

justducky · January 23, 2016, 04:02:12 PM

Our team season 3 point shooting figure now rests at 34.8%. The credit for this moderate respectability belongs to Alec (46.7%), Darien (38.2%), and Tevonn (37%). OK Keith (31.3%) and David (29%) are only modestly underperforming but the rest of this list is a point guard horror show!

Shane (23.3%), Lexus (18.8%), EVN (18.5%) and Max (16.7%). Time to get these guys some special work and attention!

I left Jubril off those lists because he is in his own category. He has made 5 of 8 for a season average of 62.5%! Any time it is late in the shot clock and he is open from 3 he should let it rip. I don't care if the announcer gets excited and says that that is not his shot. When he does not hesitate his form is decent. His freshman year he had the green light until later in the season when his success dipped below about 24%. Wait

he was shut off from shooting 3's at a higher % than Shane, Lexus, EVN, and Max are now shooting? I nominate Jubril to be our backup point guard. Do I hear a second?

historyman · January 23, 2016, 11:47:17 PM

Quote from: justducky on January 23, 2016, 04:02:12 PMI nominate Jubril to be our backup point guard. Do I hear a second?

Uh,........NO!

talksalot · January 26, 2016, 10:10:39 PM

so... How's the HL doing RPI and Prediction-wise?

change ~ RPI#~Team~Conf~Overall~RPI~SOS~SOSrank
No Change 30 Valparaiso 7-1 15-4 0.6045 130 0.5176
Up 17 From Last Week 137 Oakland 5-3 13-8 0.5184 207 0.4785
Down 3 From Last Week 142 Wright St. 7-1 11-8 0.5151 182 0.4904
Up 5 From Last Week 152 Green Bay 5-3 11-8 0.5085 242 0.4645
Down 10 From Last Week157 Milwaukee 5-3 12-7 0.5041 264 0.4585
Down 7 From Last Week 207 Detroit 3-5 7-10 0.4714 140 0.5099
No Change 209 Youngstown St. 3-5 6-13 0.4701 144 0.5070
Up 1 From Last Week 238 Cleveland St. 2-6 5-14 0.4533 132 0.5166
Up 1 From Last Week 275 North. Kentucky 3-5 5-12 0.4325 185 0.4875
Down 1 From Last Week 350 Ill. Chicago 0-8 0-17 0.3525 228 0.4700

Real Time RPI Prediction

Valpo 17-1
Oakland 13-5 ( Losing at WSU and Valpo)
Wright 12-6 (losing both this weekend, @Valpo and both games at CSU and YSU?)
Green Bay 10-8: Losses: Valpo, Valpo, Oak, Milw, WSU, UDM, OAK, YST
Milwaukee 10-8: Losses: Valpo, Valpo, Oak, WSU, WSU, UDM, OAK, GBAY
Detroit 9-9: Losses: Valpo, Oak, WSU, Milw, GBAY, CSU, YSU, Valpo, Oak
Youngs 9-9: Losses: Valpo, Oak, WSU, Milw, GBay, NoKy, Valpo, GBay, Milw, UDM
Cleveland 5-13
Northern KY 3-15 (Predictor has them losing every game on out)
UIC 2-16 (Wins at CSU and Northern)

agibson · January 26, 2016, 10:33:07 PM

By contrast, RPI Forecast prefers Wright State to Oakland.

(And still favors us loosing a second, but gives us a 33% chance of staying at the one conference loss.)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/Horz.html

(They do also like UIC for two wins; or at least a win and a half.)

justducky · February 09, 2016, 04:45:08 PM

Quote from: justducky on January 23, 2016, 04:02:12 PMI left Jubril off those lists because he is in his own category. He has made 5 of 8 for a season average of 62.5%! Any time it is late in the shot clock and he is open from 3 he should let it rip. I don't care if the announcer gets excited and says that that is not his shot. When he does not hesitate his form is decent.

Against UIC Jubril only hit 1 of 2 to drop his season average to a mere 66.7% on 10 of 15 shooting from deep.

When does the HL start guarding him closer at distance or are they comfortable in inviting him away from the offensive glass? It is not like he is totally abandoned as Buggs was but if Alec was given the room that Jubril is allowed he might take a dozen 3 pointers per outing.

ValpoHoops · February 09, 2016, 04:51:17 PM

Quote from: justducky on February 09, 2016, 04:45:08 PM...but if Alec was given the room that Jubril is allowed he might take a dozen 3 pointers per outing.

If Alec was given that kind of space, I would expect he shoot one on damn near every possession. He would be expected to make more than a dozen per game...not just shoot them.

Then again, I think even these lowly Horizon League coaches (/sarcasm) would figure that out pretty quickly. Of course, the guys in the power conferences already know that, because they're automatically better (/mini-rant).

VULB#62 · February 09, 2016, 05:44:25 PM

Quote from: ValpoHoops on February 09, 2016, 04:51:17 PM
Quote from: justducky on February 09, 2016, 04:45:08 PM...but if Alec was given the room that Jubril is allowed he might take a dozen 3 pointers per outing.

If Alec was given that kind of space, I would expect he shoot one on damn near every possession. He would be expected to make more than a dozen per game...not just shoot them.

Then again, I think even these lowly Horizon League coaches (/sarcasm) would figure that out pretty quickly. Of course, the guys in the power conferences already know that, because they're automatically better (/mini-rant).

That is soooooo snarky. Love it!

Kyle321n · February 12, 2016, 11:30:12 AM

KenPom has a new stat and guess who's #1! That's right Valpo has the most continuity.

Here's the full list of HL teams since you need to be registered to see them.

Valparaiso-- 84.9% (#1)
Milwaukee-- 56.7% (#113)
Detroit-- 55.3% (#128)
Oakland-- 49.0% (#172)
Wright St.-- 48.6% (#179)
Green Bay-- 48.3% (#183)
Northern Kentucky-- 45.2% (#205)
Illinois Chicago-- 37.3% (#276)
Cleveland St.-- 30.6% (#312)
Youngstown St.-- 13.7% (#348)

And by comparison here's some historic Valpo teams:
2015: 41.3% (#242)
2014: 24.3% (#335)
2013: 74.9% (#25)
2012: 50.8% (#163)
2011: 66.5% (#58)
2010: 26.0% (#330)
2009: 40.1% (#261)
2008: 78.8% (#12)

a3uge · February 12, 2016, 12:47:58 PM

Wut?

Kyle321n · February 12, 2016, 01:10:14 PM

It's continuity.

QuoteThere's a new stat on the team scouting report for you: Continuity. Although it's more of a storytelling stat, it seems like something that should be tracked by someone. The issue is deciding how to measure it.
One way would be in terms of roster continuity, which determines if the players that played last season are also playing this season. This is what goes into the preseason ratings. But once the season starts, that number only tells part of the story about a team's continuity.