Commissioner's HL Team Previews 2016-17

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Preview #1: UIC

Over the past few years I've written up and shared Horizon team previews. I do this in part as a hobby--I like to write, I like sports, but I don't normally get to write about sports. In elementary school I used to write up game reports after our basketball games. In junior high I covered the junior high teams for the community newspaper, and also wrote coverage of teams in the nearby where my Dad coached (and they'd print those in the News Herald--the question of reporter bias never seemed to come up). I used to do play by play on games in college. But somewhere along the line my dream of being a sports reporter fell by the wayside. That's OK, no regrets. But this is an outlet for that side of me. I also find that it helps me enjoy the games more if I've learned about our opponents and their players in advance, so the education I do to write these up helps me enjoy the games and know what to look for.

So basically, I do this for me. But I do appreciate the nice things that many of you have said about these season previews, and the in-season game previews as well. Indeed, these season previews have been getting some play and discussion on other fan boards around the Horizon the last few years, which I get a kick out of seeing. So I'm glad that at least some folks enjoy reading these. I'll be posting these here and also at the other site. I'm going through the teams in reverse order of last year's finish, except, as always, saving the Titans for last. This year I'm using some of the previews to talk about other things that interest me a bit. You'll see what I mean. I'll post one every few days between now and the start of the season on November 11.

So, first team preview: UIC.

UIC
2016: 5-25 Overall, RPI #346
3-15 Horizon (10th)

Does playing a rigorous non-conference schedule "prepare a team for conference play?" Last year, Valparaiso played the toughest non-conference schedule of any team in the Horizon (#19 nationally, according to RPI Forecast) and won the regular season. UIC played easily the weakest non-conference schedule of any Horizon team (#343), and finished last. So that would suggest the benefits of a tough schedule. Then again, the teams that most over-performed preseason predictions were Green Bay and Wright State, and their OOC SOSes were #219 and #257, respectively, not exactly the toughest you'd have in mind. Meanwhile, the teams that most under-performed pre-season projections were Cleveland State, Milwaukee and Detroit. Milwaukee's non-conference SOS was #297, weakest in the conference after UIC. But Detroit's non-conference SOS was #193, and the Titans also underperformed expectations. And CSU's non-conference schedule was 39th toughest nationally, but their season was a disaster.

That's not much data, but it fits my gut intuition—whether you want to play a tough non-conference schedule depends on a lot of factors, like what kind of team you have and what your goals are. I'm not sure that playing a tough schedule makes you better or worse to any significant degree. But UIC has been really bad for quite a few years now, and an easy non-conference schedule might be worth a try, simply to help shed the culture of losing and drum up a bit more fan interest.

The Flames struggled mightily in 2016, winning just 5 games in Steve McClain's first season—two of those against non-D-I opponents. It was UIC's worst season ever. Their three D-I wins came in a 4 game stretch during the first two weeks of February. All three wins were at home. They beat 8th place Northern Kentucky by two, 9th place Cleveland State by 2, and—the shocker—third place Wright State by 5.

How bad were the Flames? They lost to Western Illinois by 27, to Drake by 21, to DePaul by 27, to Cleveland State by 17, and to Northern Kentucky by 13. Not counting games against the Flames, those 5 teams won a combined total of just 31 games against D-I competition. The Flames were really bad, and you can't blame UIC's record on strength of schedule—the NCAA ranked UIC's overall schedule (including conference games) just 268th in the nation.

The Flames will be a young team again in 2016-17. The only senior is walk-on guard Josh Joiner. Center Tai Odiase could be the only junior in the starting lineup, and though juniors Lance Whitaker and Clint Robinson should also get serious minutes, this is basically a team of freshmen and sophomores.

As such, UIC has put together another non-conference schedule of cupcakes. I think that's the right move, but last year's schedule wasn't like downing brussels sprouts, so we'll have to see it the Flames can swallow those cupcakes this year. UIC has 7 home games and just 4 true road games, with two other games played at a tournament at Northern Illinois. The highest 2015-16 RPI to appear on their fall 2016 non-conference schedule is Grand Canyon, at #88. Northern Illinois (#143) is the only other scheduled non-conference opponent with an RPI rank below 200 last year. They face no Power 5 squads, though DePaul (#201) of the Big East is on the schedule. They face off against two of the worst 5 RPIs from last year, Texas-San Antonio (#347) and Chicago State (dead last at #351), plus Northern Arizona (#333) and two NAIA teams. The Flames ought to win at least 7 games in non-conference play, possibly as many as 10 or 11. On the other hand, UIC's RPI last year ranked #346, so undoubtedly fans of some of these weak sister opponents are looking at UIC as a team that they can beat this year.

Several holdovers from the Howard Moore era graduated or transferred out, but the only significant loss is forward Najeal Young, a juco recruited by McClain. Young played in every conference game last year, averaging 7.1 points and 7.3 rebounds in conference play, but for whatever reason decided to transfer down to NAIA Texas Wesleyan after one season.

So the Flames, one of the least experienced teams in the country last year, will be inexperienced again. No matter: McClain has brought in another stellar recruiting class. Substantial improvement is expected.

The big dog for the Flames is sophomore Dikembe Dixson, last year's Freshman of the Year in the Horizon and a second team all-conference selection (the first freshman to make all-conference since Ray McCallum). Dixson averaged 19.8 points and 7.3 rebounds last year, boosting his scoring to 23.3 points per game in conference play, where he averaged almost 40 minutes per game. Dixson has plenty of detractors, for his relatively high turnover rate and poor shooting (just 39.4% overall, 30.5% from three) and shot selection. But he's also a guy who can take over a game, as in his 40 point, 17 rebound effort last year against Youngstown. If Dixson matures a bit and let's his improving teammates take on a bit more of the action, he could contend for Horizon Player of the Year.

At center will be Odiase, second in the nation last year in blocked shots per game and an All-Defensive team selection in the Horizon. He gives UIC a top-notch rim protector and solid rebounding. Odiase also began to find his offensive groove in the second half of last season. After averaging just 4.4 points as a freshman and 6.1 points in the first 12 D-I games last year, Odiase averaged 11.0 ppg over UIC's final 16 D-I games.

A third starter is likely to be redshirt freshman shooting guard Dominique Matthews, a three-star recruit in the Class of '15. Last year Matthews averaged 9.7 points (including 22 against Illinois State and 17 against DePaul) in 9 games (8 starts) before being lost for the season to a thumb injury. As it is, Matthews' playing time just barely squeaked under the wire for gaining an extra year's eligibility as a medical hardship. So while that hurt the Flames last year, in the long run Matthew' injury could be a benefit--if they can keep him for four more seasons.

I wouldn't be surprised if freshmen don't fill UIC's other two starting spots.

6-8 forward KJ Santos is a three-star recruit who at one time or another had offers from VCU, West Virginia, Iowa, Wake Forest, Penn State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, SMU, and Wichita State, among others. ESPN ranked him the 37th best small forward in the nation last year. His problem has been staying healthy—he missed a good portion of his high school career with injuries. He also bounced around different prep schools, which probably hurt his recruitment. Nevertheless, he's a genuine high major talent and should start, although, give the injury history, McClain may want to take it easy on his star recruit.

UIC's biggest problem last year was the lack of a solid point guard. McClain finally stuck Lance Whitaker into the spot, and Whitaker did a respectable if unspectacular job. In the off-season, McClain went out and signed a couple good point guards, Marcus Ottey and Godwin Boahen, one of whom will likely start at the point. The first crack should go to Ottey, a 6-1, 165 lb. guard from Ohio who chose UIC over Cincinnati and Nebraska. He is said to be quick, athletic, a good penetrator and good defender. Ottey probably made the right choice passing on the high majors—he's got the potential to be a major star in the Horizon, whereas his relatively small size, slender build, and so-so three point shooting would probably have left him a role player in the Big 10 or at UC. Boahen is, like Ottey, a three-star recruit, but was not offered by the Power 5. North Pole Hoops rated him the best point guard in Canada. If Ottey doesn't come through McClain will likely give Boahen a good look. If both strike out, the Flames can fall back on Whitaker, an injury-redshirt junior who averaged 5.5 points and 3.3 assists last year. Whitaker had a good A/TO ratio and he would adequate.

Dixson and Santos are both really 3s, or even 2s, more than power forwards. If UIC needs some added muscle up front they'll turn to a pair of juco transfers, 6-8, 235 lb. Clint Robinson, who averaged 14.6 points and 8 rebounds at State Fair CC, and 6-8, 225 lb. Kyle Guice, whose North Idaho CC team won 31 games last year. Robinson will probably be the main back-up for Odiase, but they could see time together on the court if McClain wants to go big, with Robinson starting ahead of Santos. They've also got 6-7 soph Hassan Thomas, who appeared in 20 games as a freshman, and 6-8 freshman Jordan Blount, an Irishman who attended the SPIRE Academy in Ohio, where he was a teammate of Ottey. Before that, in 2015 he led the Under-18 Irish national team in scoring at the European Championships with 25.4 ppg.

Another player who should see time is sophomore guard Michael Kolawole, who averaged 25 minutes and 7.7 points in conference play last year. Yet another freshman who can't be counted out is shooting guard Tarkus Ferguson, who committed to UIC over offers from Western Kentucky and a slew of Missouri Valley schools.

Coach McClain is accumulating talent at a remarkable clip, but I expect UIC fans are going to expect some on-court results this year. This team has a quality rim protector and some scorers. It is weak in three-point shooting and, at least from that off-season perspective, looks unsettled at the point. In a weak Horizon, UIC could easily finish in the first division, and might even challenge for the title. But remember, the Flames won just 5 games last season. A 12 game overall improvement would leave them just 17-13, and it is very rare that teams improve by 12 games in a season. In fact, no Horizon team has done that since at least 2000. In conference play, the only Horizon team since at least 2000 to improve by 9 games in a season is Wright State, just last year. A 9 game improvement in conference play would leave the Flames 12-6, probably good for 4th place, possibly 3rd. If you want to pick a team anywhere in the country to make that kind of massive improvement this year, UIC would be a darn good bet, but it's still a bet against the odds. The Flames will definitely improve, probably by a lot. But a title run is probably too much to expect, and UIC fans should be patient. These Flames should be deadly in 2018 and 2019.

Probable Starters
PG – Marcus Ottey, 6-1 Fr.
SG – Dominique Matthews, 6-2 RS Fr. (9.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.1 apg in 9 games)
F – KJ Santos, 6-8 Fr.
F – Dikembe Dixon, 6-7 Soph. (19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg)
C – Tai Odiase, 6-9 Jr. (9.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.2 bpg)

Other Key Players
G – Lance Whitaker, 6-4 RS Jr. (5.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.3 apg; .345 3P%)
G – Michael Kolawole, 6-5 Soph. (5.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.2 apg)
PG – Godwin Boahen, 5-11 Fr.
PF – Kyle Guice, 6-8 Jr. (7.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg at North Idaho JC)
PF/C – Clint Robinson, 6-8 Jr. (14.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg at State Fair JC)

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Preview #2

Cleveland State
2016: 9-23 overall, RPI #277
4-14 Horizon (9th)

Last year CSU was bad because of the transfers of Trey Lewis (Kentucky), Anton Grady (Wichita State), and Kaza Keane (Canada). This off season, the Vikings have seen their #3 scorer, Andre Yates, leave a year early to play pro ball overseas, and Myles Hamilton, Jonathan Janssen, Jeron Rogers and Aaron Scales transfer out. But while Yates would have helped, this year's transfers more explain why CSU was bad last year then why they will be bad this year. Those guys just weren't very good (including Rogers, for whom I had pretty high expectations). None of them will be missed.

With plenty of turnover, the 2016-17 version of the Vikes is a bit hard to predict. Coach Gary Waters has added 3 jucos, plus he's got an Oral Roberts transfer who becomes eligible. And I still have a lot of respect for Waters, who hasn't suffered back-to-back losing seasons since his first two years as a head coach twenty years ago. Those seasons were at Kent State, a team Waters turned in year three from the perennial MAC doormat into a conference power that it remains to this day. Anyway, he'll need all his coaching talents and some good years from some of these jucos, because CSU has very little back from last year's 9-23 squad.

Last year's squad faltered on offense, and the numbers tell the story in brutal fashion. CSU was 341st nationally in scoring offense; 320th in field goal percentage, 274th in 3 point shooting. They couldn't even hit free throws (252nd). Ken Pomeroy ranked them 340th in offensive efficiency.

The poor shooting percentages may in part reflect a lack of floor leadership and a poorly-run offense. The loss of Lewis left the Vikes without a returning point guard to run the offense. Transfer Hamilton was perhaps the hope, but he got himself kicked off the team after his first game. Much of the playing time eventually fell to freshman walk-on Nelson Maxwell, who was game but simply overmatched. The Vikes finished 340th in the nation in turnover rate.

Waters looked to solve the problem by bringing in Juco Gavin Pepper to play the point this season. The 6-2 junior averaged 18.7 points and 3.8 assists last season at Laramie CC. Pepper is good and should do well, but he'd better be up for a lot of minutes: the only other true point guards on the roster are Maxwell and lightly-recruited freshman Kasheem Thomas.

While the point remains a potential problem--depending on Pepper--Waters has a lot of depth at the #2 slot, and I look for him to run a three guard lineup most of the time. Cass Tech product Rob Edwards set a Viking record for minutes played by a freshman last season, and led the team in scoring at 12.4 ppg. He hit 39.5% of his three point attempts. Another Detroit product, junior Terrell Hales, started 29 games last year. Hales isn't a scoring threat at all, but Waters likes his tenacious defense and that makes him likely to start again this year. Three other guards who should see plenty of playing time are Kenny Carpenter, another Cass Tech product; Bobby Word, a three-point specialist transfer from Oral Roberts; and Anthony Wright, a juco Honorable Mention All America from Harcum JC in Philadelphia. They're all shooting guards, but if Pepper doesn't come through, look to see Carpenter to start at the point.

With Pepper in place, Waters' remaining problem is size. He's got two new 6-8 players, freshman Evan Clayborne and juco transfer Jamarcus Hairston. They're the tallest players on the roster, and look for both to get PT. Clayborne is a 240 lb. wide body who abandoned an early commitment to Buffalo when Bobby Hurley left for warmer climes. I question whether he's really his listed 6-8—to test that, it will be interesting to see him line up opposite Jaleel Hogan. He's a similar type player to Hogan, but I don't think as good as Hogan was as a freshman. He did play with very successful high school teams at Dayton Dunbar and Thurgood Marshall, so we'll see. Hairston, meanwhile, was a third team Juco All-America at Louisburg JC in North Carolina. Of interest to Titan fans, he was a high school teammate of Jarod Williams on a 2013 powerhouse George Washington High School team in Danville (that team featured a third D-I player, Ahmad Thomas. Thomas was Williams' backcourt mate, and last year averaged 11.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and was 14th in the nation in steals for UNC-Asheville). Hairston is a good three point shooter who can stretch the defense. I look for Hairston to start and Clayborne to see time off the bench. Hairston is the player with immediate impact potential, and may be the key to whether CSU can claw back to .500 this year.

The main returning front court player is 6-7, 240 lb. senior power forward DeMonte Flannigan. Flannigan spent two years putzing around the Vikings bench, averaging 1 point and 0.7 rebounds as a freshman and 2 points and 1.2 rebounds as a sophomore. Not a lot was expected from him entering last season. But Flannigan hit for 20 points in an early season loss to Maryland, suggesting major improvement. Still, it wasn't till midway through the season that he began to show that form on a consistent basis. Over his last 10 games he averaged 15 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Flannigan's a big, strong guy but last year he was in a situation somewhat similar to Hogan in Detroit—a strong kid who was nonetheless overpowered down low by bigger players. He desperately needs another big man to help on defense, but it's hard to see who that might be other than the freshman Clayborne. 6-7 sophomore Jibri Blount played well in spurts and will be the main backup in the front line, unless Clayborne comes through strong.

The Vikings are small, relatively inexperienced, and haven't played much together. On the other hand, their biggest problem last year was scoring, and, despite the premature loss of Yates, the Vikes appear to have fixed that. Pepper should stabilize the point, and he and fellow newcomers Word, Wright and Hairston are all guys who can put points on the board. Edwards and Flannigan are already a good offensive outside/inside combo, and Carpenter can score, too. In non-conference play, CSU has just 4 true home games, with 7 on the road and one at a neutral site. But except for games at Kentucky and Purdue, the non-conference opponents aren't too imposing. In conference play, it will be tough but not impossible for CSU to climb out of the second division this year. Flannigan is the only senior on the roster, so better days may lie ahead.

Probable Starters
PG – Gavin Pepper, 6-2 Jr. (18.7 ppg, 3.8 apg at Laramie CC)
G – Terrell Hales, 6-4 Jr. (1.6 ppg, 1.3 apg)
G – Rob Edwards, 6-4 Soph. (12.4 ppg, 39.5% 3PFG)
F – Jamarcus Hairston, 6-8 Jr. (14..1 ppg, 9.0 rpg at Louisburg JC)
PF – DeMonte Flannigan, 6-7, Sr. (11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg).

Key Reserves
G – Kenny Carpenter, 6-2 Jr. (6.8 ppg)
G – Bobby Word, 6-4 Jr. (8.4 ppg, 39.2% 3PFG, at Oral Roberts in 2015)
G/F – Anthony Wright, 6-5 Jr. (17.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.7 apg at Harcum JC)
F – Evan Clayborne, 6-8 Fr.
F – Jibri Blount, 6-7 Soph. (5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

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Northern Kentucky
9-21 Overall (RPI 296)
5-13 Horizon (8th place)

When Northern Kentucky, a successful D-II program, commissioned a study about transitioning to D-I a few years back, the analysis promoted the Horizon League as the school's goal. The HL turned NKU down at the outset, and the Norse spent three years in the Atlantic Sun before getting the coveted invite to the Horizon for their final transition season last year. It's been tough on the Court—the Norse have gone 42-75—but they are now full DI members, and they still have a lot of potential. The BB&T Arena isn't cozy but it's probably the swankiest in the Horizon. NKU gives the Conference a toehold in both the Cincinnati and Kentucky markets. And in 2nd year head coach John Brannen they've got one of the more promising young coaches in the nation.

I was curious--how long does it take teams to put up a winning record, and then to make the NCAA tournament, after joining D-I. Thirty-five teams have joined D-I hoops since the close of the 1999 season.

So here is a list of transitions to D-I since 2000, with the year the transition began, ... years to first winning season, and then total and first NCAA bids, if applicable:

Alabama A&M 2000 ... 1 (1 tournament in 2005)
Utah Valley 2005 ... 1
South Dakota 2010 ... 1
Incarnate Word 2014 ... 1
Stony Brook 2000 ... 2 (1 tournament in 2016)
Texas A&M – Corpus Christi 2003 ... 2 (1 tournament in 2007)
Grand Canyon 2014 ... 2
Morris Brown 2002 ... 2 (None - left D-I after 2 seasons)
Oakland 2000 ... 3 (3 tournaments in 2005, 2010, 2011)
Gardner-Webb 2003 ... 3
Lipscomb 2003 ... 3
Belmont 2000 ... 4 (7 tournaments in 2006-2008, 2011-13, and 2015)
Northern Kentucky 2013 ... 4 (None)
High Point 2000 ... 5
Longwood 2005 ... 5
NC Central 2008 ... 5 (1 tournament in 2014)
South Carolina-Upstate 2008 ... 5
Bryant 2009 ... 5
Albany 2000 ... 6 (5 tournaments, 2006-07, 2013-15)
Elon 2000 ... 6
South Dakota State 2006 ... 6 (3 tournaments in 2012-13, 2016)
Bakersfield 2007 ... 6 (1 tournament in 2016)
FGCU 2008 ... 6 (2 tournaments, 2013, 2016)
Omaha 2013 ... 6
Savannah State 2003 ... 7
Sacred Heart 2000 ... 8
Cal Riverside 2001 ... 8
IPFW 2003 ... 8
NJIT 2006 ... 8
SIU-E 2009 ... 8 (None)
Presbyterian 2008 ... 9 (None)
North Florida 2006 ... 10 (1 tournament in 2015)
Central Arkansas 2007 ... 10 (None)
UC-Davis 2005 ... 11
Kennesaw State 2006 ... 11 (None)

Only 12 of these 35 have ever appeared in the NCAA tournament. None have ever gotten an at-large berth. Only Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 has won a round past the play-in game, and only Albany and Oakland (which beat fellow newcomer Alabama A&M in 2005) have won a play-in game. The median number of seasons before putting up a winning record is 5/6. So to hit that median for a first winning season, NKU will have to get into the black this year or next. Is it doable? Definitely, but probably in 2018 rather than 2017.

Brannen has brought in two highly rated recruiting classes since taking over at NKU—only UIC's Steve McClain surpassed him according to the experts. Last year's class was headed up by 6-7, 250 lb. power forward Drew McDonald and juco guard Lavone Holland II. McDonald was a Horizon All-Freshman team member, who came off the bench to average 10.5 points and team-best 6.2 rebounds on the season, and 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds in conference play. Holland, a 6-1 point guard who came in after playing his freshman year at Coffeyville JC, led the team with 4.0 assists, and is the team's top returning scorer after averaging 10.7 ppg. Brannen also brought along with him 6-7, 3-star recruit in Jeff Garrett from Alabama, whom he had recruited Garrett while an assistant there. Garrett was red-shirted as a freshman at 'Bama, then had to sit out last season as a transfer, so he hasn't played in game situations in two years. Still, he should be a major part of this year's Norse squad. Brennan Gillis, a 6-7 forward from last year's class, also saw regular minutes as a freshman.

This year Brannen scored a recruiting coup in signing Kentucky's Mr. Basketball, Carson Williams. He beat out schools such as Oklahoma State and St. Joe's to get the 6-7 forward, who averaged more than 20 points and 10 rebounds in each of his high school seasons. He also lined up a pair of Rivals 3-star recruits in 6-1 Point Blake Spellman of Missouri, and 6-3 shooting guard Mason Faulkner from Horse Cave, Kentucky. Another freshman shooting guard, Dantez Walker, was rated 3 stars by Scout. He rounded the class out with Jalen Tate, younger brother of Ohio State's Jae-Sean Tate, point guard Tre Cobb from Ohio, and Brandon Maxwell, a 3-point shooter out of Daytona State JC.

Besides Holland, Brannen has two other starters back. One is 6-7 shooting guard Cole Murray, who knocked down 45.3% from three point range. Murray's best game of the year came against Detroit, when he hit 7 of 10 three pointers to finish with 21 points in NKU's 91-83 upset at Calihan—probably the low point of the Titans' season. The other is Jordan Garnett, a 6-5 junior forward who earns his pt with his defense.

According to KenPom, NKU was one of the unluckiest teams in the nation last year, which in itself would suggest improvement is likely. But with the arrival of Brannen and the move to the Horizon, they're also drawing better talent to Highland Heights, and that should start to show this year. The Norse don't have a lot of size, but McDonald is one of the league's best low-post players, and Murray is one of the best returning three point shooters not just in the Horizon, but in the nation. Holland is a solid starter at the point and another good three-point shooter. A soft non-conference schedule should launch them into the conference season with a winning record, and I expect they'll up their conference win total as well, which could get them to their first overall winning season in D-I, in their 5th year in the division. 2018 may be more reasonable target, however. The Norse won't contend this year, but the future looks good at the Horizon's southernmost outpost.

Probable Starters
PG – Lavone Holland II, 6-1 RS Jr (10.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 4.7 rpg, 37.2% 3PtFG)
SG – Cole Murray, 6-7 Sr. (10.1 ppg, 45.3% 3PtFG)
SF – Jordan Garnett, 6-5 Jr. (3.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg).
F – Jeff Garrett, 6-7 RS Soph.
PF/C – Drew McDonald, 6-7 Soph. (10.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg)

Other Key Players
G – Brandon Maxwell, 6-2 Soph. (13 ppg at Daytona State JC)
G – Blake Spellman, 5-11 Fr.
F – Carson Williams, 6-7 Fr.
F – Brennan Gillis, 6-7 Soph., (2.1 ppg)

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Our 4th Horizon team preview:

Youngstown State
2016:
11-21 Overall (RPI 275)
6-12 Horizon (7th place)

Let's start this preview by looking at the big picture. Here are the Horizon composite conference records over the past 20 years:

HORIZON REGULAR SEASON COMPOSITE RECORD SINCE 1997 (CONFERENCE PLAY ONLY)
Butler 192-66 .744
Valparaiso 101-55 .647
Oakland 31-19 .620
Green Bay 178-146 .549
Milwaukee 176-148 .543
Detroit 175-149 .540
Wright State 167-157 .515
Cleveland State 150-174 .463
UIC 129-195 .398
Loyola 104-170 .380
Northern Kentucky 5-13 .278
Youngstown 70-182 .278

And here are Conference Tournament Records over those 20 years.

HORIZON TOURNAMENT RECORDS SINCE 1997 (# Tournament Titles in Parens)

Butler 28-9 .757 (7)
Valparaiso 10-7 .588 (2)
Detroit 25-18 .581 (2)
Milwaukee 19-15 .559 (4)
UIC 17-18 .486 (2)
Wright State 17-19 .472 (1)
Green Bay 17-19 .472 (1)
Loyola 10-17 .370 (0)
Cleveland State 11-19 .367 (1)
Oakland 1-3 .250 (0)
Youngstown 4-14 .222 (0)
Northern Kentucky 0-1 .000 (0)

If you're like me, you're probably a bit surprised at how well Detroit has done in the tournament. But that's not my point. My purpose is to talk about Youngstown State.

As these stats show, Youngstown State's purpose in the Horizon is to finish last. Almost every league has a team like Youngstown – in the Big 10, it's Northwestern; in the Big East, DePaul; in the Atlantic 10, Fordham. The SWAC has Grambling, the SEC has Auburn, and so on. These teams keep the other programs from sinking to rock bottom. They provide a breather during the conference season. They pad everyone's record. When these teams roust themselves to better finishes from time to time, it sort of throws the whole conference out of whack.

Youngstown was brought into the Horizon for that purpose- to finish last. After all, it's not like it wasn't obvious that YSU would be bad in the Horizon's flagship sport—the Penguins had had just 3 winning seasons in the 16 years immediately preceding their admission, including 7 seasons with single-digit wins, and had never played in a D-I post-season tournament. YSU has now been in the Horizon for 15 years. It has had one winning season in conference play, and finished last 6 times, and next to last another 4 times. While the other two additions to the conference during that time, Valparaiso and Oakland, have zoomed to the top in composite conference winning percentage, Youngstown is perpetually awful on the court.

Youngstown's head coach is Jerry Slocum, who, in 11 years, has compiled a .379 overall winning percentage, and a .309 winning percentage in conference—quite a bit better than the .188 Horizon conference winning percentage of his predecessor, John Robic. Still, many observers were surprised when Slocum, a very successful small-college coach before being hired at YSU, was retained for another year after back-to-back 11-21 records. But that's because those observers don't understand YSU's purpose in the Horizon.

The YSU administration seems to get it. Slocum is far and away the lowest paid coach in the conference, but that seems fair given that YSU has the lowest basketball budget in the conference. The athletic attention at YSU all goes to football. Well, maybe not all—they've also been quite successful in women's sports—but the point is it doesn't go to basketball. On top of that, Slocum has to convince recruits to head to Youngstown, which has a reputation as a sort of poor-man's Detroit. Their attendance is consistently among the worst in the Horizon. High school players looking for mid-major ball at undistinguished academic institutions in depressed, frigid urban areas have their choice of Kent and Akron within 50 minutes, and Cleveland State and just a few minutes further. Slocum's job is not an easy one, and the YSU administration seems to get that.

And so here we are—the current Horizon coach with the worst winning percentage in conference play is starting his 12th season at the helm, as the dean of HL head coaches. Jerry Slocum: survivor. Will no one vote this poor man off Beeghly Island and let him go home?

Through all this, Slocum actually gets some talent to Youngstown—his problem has been keeping it there, and getting it in sync. After the 2014 season, the team's #2 scorer, sophomore Ryan Weber, transferred out after being sucker punched in practice by freshman Marcus Keene. Keene stayed around and led the Penguins in scoring in 2015 at 15.6 ppg, then thanked Slocum for the latter's forbearance by transferring to Central Michigan. That squad's other starting guard, Osandai Vaughn, also transferred after the season. Last year Jordan Andrew averaged 9.8 ppg in conference play and made the Horizon All-freshman Team, then promptly transferred to South Alabama.

This should be a typical Penguin squad—there's some talent, but probably not enough to finish in the first division. Still, it's a team that can be dangerous if overlooked.

The top returning performer is junior guard Cameron Morse, from Flint. Morse was second in Horizon in scoring last year to Kahlil Felder, at 20.3 ppg, but actually led the league in scoring during conference play at 23.3 ppg. The explosive Morse had 44 points against Green Bay last season, 30 against the Titans, and another 7 games with at least 25 points. Morse is one of the best pure shooters in the mid-major ranks, connecting last year on over 41 percent of his three-point attempts, over 50% from two-point range, and over 81 percent at the free stripe. He also averaged over 3 assists per game with a very solid 2-1 TO/A ratio.

Next to Morse in the backcourt is 6-1 junior Francisco Santiago, the top returning assist man in the conference and one of the league's most improbable success stories. Santiago, playing for Cleveland St. Ignatius High, was a first team all-stater in Ohio in 2013, alongside Ohio State's Marc Loving and ahead of, to name just one, OSU's Jae'Sean Tate. His dream—honest to God—was to play for Cleveland State, but Gary Waters never had any interest in Santiago, even as they recruited his teammate Derek Sloan hard. But to be fair, despite the high school honors, nobody had much use for 'Cisco, who ended up at D-II Wheeling Jesuit, where he red-shirted. He then transferred to YSU as a walk-on, sat a year under transfer regulations, and emerged last year as the team's starting point guard. He ended up averaging 9 points per game and was 4th in the Conference in assists at 4.3 per game. Santiago is not a three point threat but the Penguins don't need him to be. He's a solid foul shooter and will pick up a few points on drives to the hoop.

Morse and Santiago finished last season 5th and 7th in the conference in steals, and are the Horizon's #1 and #2 returning players in that category. Other teams' guards will have to guard the ball in Youngstown.

The back-up guards are Ypsilanti native Latin Davis at point and Brett Frantz at the off-guard. Frantz was the backcourt mate of would-be Titan recruit BJ Jenkins at Neosho CC in Kansas. Jenkins, you'll recall, couldn't qualify academically for the Titans. Frantz did qualify, and had a season best 13 points last year against the Titans.

At Center the 'Guins' have 7-0, 250 lb. senior Jorden Kaufman, who averaged 6.3 points and 5.1 rebounds last year, mainly off the bench. Kaufman, who played his first two seasons at Oral Roberts, is basically a plodder who clogs up the middle. But that's a valuable player at times. He had an 11 point, 18 rebound game against UIC last season, and an 18 point, 13 rebound game against Oakland. He's been prone to foul trouble, one reason he was limited to under 17 minutes per game last season. Also, YSU likes to play fast, especially the guards, and Kaufman is slow. That, too, could limit his minutes. But in a half court set, there's no center in the conference who is going to muscle him around.

6-7 senior Matt Donlin will start at the #3 slot, coming off a season in which he averaged 13.1 points and 4.6 rebounds, while shooting a wicked 46.3% from three-point range. With Donlin and Morse, the Penguins will be a regular threat from three, and so can come from behind quickly.

The final starter will likely be 6-7 junior Sidney Umide, who started 18 games last year. For depth at forward the Penguins will rely on a couple of juco transfers, Stefan Rosic and Rahim Williams. They've also got soph Devin Haygood out of Ypsilanti, who made two starts last year, one against Detroit, but tallied barely 100 minutes total.

The Horizon, traditionally a relatively slow league, has been racheting up the tempo in recent years with the addition of coaches Kampe at Oakland, Linc Darner at Green Bay, and Steve McClain at UIC. Last year it was the fastest conference in the nation. We'll have to see if that changes with all the new coaches coming into the league. But Slocum has always been an up-tempo coach, and seemed very happy to accelerate the pace last year—his Penguins were 19th in the nation in possessions per minute. I'd expect a fast-pace again, with Morse leading the way. The Penguins will be dangerous, but are nonetheless looking at another finish near the bottom of the pack. That makes sense. After all, it's why they're here.

Probable Starters
PG – Francisco Santiago, 6-1 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 spg)
SG – Cameron Morse, 6-2 Jr. (20.3 ppg, 3.1 apg, .413% 3PFG, 1.5 spg)
SF – Matt Donlan, 6-7 Sr. (13.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .463 3PFG)
F – Sidney Umide, 6-7 Jr. (7.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg)
C – Jorden Kaufman, 7-0 Sr. (6.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg)

Other Key Players
PG – Latin Davis, 5-11 Soph. (3.1 ppg, 1.3 apg)
SG – Brett Frantz, 6-3 Sr. (3.3 ppg)
F – Rahim Williams, 6-6 Jr. (9.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg at State College of Florida JC)
F – Stefan Rosic, 6-7 Jr. (9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg at Arizona Western JC)

[wh]

Milwaukee
20-13 Overall, RPI 173
10-8 in Horizon, 5th Place

I have this little thing going with Milwaukee fans. Each year, I write up a Milwaukee preview. Panther fans excoriate me for not giving their team enough respect. Each year, I end up right. It's typically my best prediction.

This year, though, I don't have much to say about Milwaukee, and probably couldn't predict them to be worse than what Milwaukee fans themselves are predicting. After a disappointing season (at least for Milwaukee fans, who thought their team was better than it was), Milwaukee imploded. Their best player, Matt Tiby, and starting center, JJ Panoske, graduated. Still, they looked like a solid upper division team. But then Rob Jeter was fired in clunky fashion. The next thing you know the nation's #2 man in assists, Jordan Johnson, two-year starter Austin Arians, and the team's top returning scorer and rebounder, Akeem Springs, decided to transfer (respectively, they headed off to UNLV, Wake Forest, and Minnesota, giving you some sense of the talent lost). The net result is that Milwaukee doesn't have a single returning player who started even one game last season. All told, all of Milwaukee's returning players combined played fewer than 550 minutes in all of 2015-16. (By comparison, Chris Jenkins played 986 minutes last year). I think that new head coach LaVall Jordan is a good hire, and if I were a Panther fan I'd be excited for the future. But Jordan didn't have a lot of time to pull together a recruiting class this year, and the five incoming freshman, plus grad transfer Cameron Harvey from Stetson, isn't particularly impressive. But we'll soon find out, because some of them are going to play. This will almost certainly be the league's youngest team.

Does it matter much, though, if the team is young? Intuitively, we probably think it does, because presumably players get better with experience. OTOH, that can be overstated. The best players are often the best from day 1. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look back at the question. On the other site I put together a little table showing Horizon final standings for the last five years, compared to where each team ranks on experience. This site doesn't provide for nice neat tables, so you're spared that. But below is a little summary (You can see the whole thing at http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... 539/thread). (The experience rankings come from Ken Pomeroy, http://www.kenpom.com. Pomeroy's average years experience are weighted by playing time for the season in question. Note, though, that they are based on class year, not actual playing time, e.g. two sophs, one of whom played 700 minutes as a freshman and the other of whom played just 70 minutes as a freshman, are each credited with 1 year of experience.)

By....Avg.
Age..Position...Yearly
1.....2.0......... (1-2-3-1-3)
2.....5.4......... (5-7-8-2-5)
3.....4.6......... (4-3-5-5-6)
4.....6.4......... (3-9-9-9-2)
5.....5.0......... (8-4-6-6-1)
6.....5.0......... (2-8-2-4-9)
7.....5.8......... (6-5-1-7-10)
8.....6.4......... (7-6-7-3-8)
9.....5.2......... (9-1-4-8-4)
10...8.5........ (10-x-x-x-7)

This is a very small sample size, just 5 years, so not worth much. However, in the FWIW category, the most experienced team is much more likely to finish high in the standings than anybody else, and really young teams tend to do poorly. But beyond that, there seems to be very little relevance to age. And while the oldest team always did well, never finishing lower than third place and winning the conference twice, the other three regular season champs were 5th, 7th, and 9th on the experience scale.

Here are the Titans results:

2012: 3rd place, most experienced
2013: 2nd place, 2nd most experienced
2014: 7th place, 8th most experienced
2015: 6th place, 8th most experienced
2016: 6th place, 7th most experienced

Somehow the Titans have managed to be one of the least experienced teams in the conference three years running.

Last year the correlation in the league was pretty tight, except really for Oakland, and maybe Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky. Valpo, the most experienced team, finished first. Green Bay and Wright State were the third and 4th most experienced teams, and finished 4th and 3rd, respectively. Detroit finished 6th with the 7th most experienced line-up; Youngstown was 7th with the 8th most experienced, and Cleveland State and UIC finished 9th and 10th with 9th and 10th most experienced. Northern Kentucky threw off the bottom of the league just a tiny bit, finishing 8th with the 5th most experienced team. But when you figure they had a team of Atlantic Sun level players, that might explain their underperformance. Otherwise, Milwaukee was worse than their seniority would suggest (5th place, vs. 2nd most senior), and Oakland better (2nd place vs. 6th most senior).

Well, enough with all that. Down at the bottom of this post, for the real masochists, I've listed how teams have done over the past 5 years based on experience levels.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee returns just two players with any D-I rotation experience. Senior Cody Wichmann averaged 4.8 points while shooting 48% from three point land. Harvey, the Stetson transfer, is the only player on the team who started a D-I game last year—he started all 34 at Stetson, averaging 5.9 points while shooting 36% from three. And redshirt freshman Jeremy Johnson is an excellent three point shooter. So there's some depth at SG.

But who will play the point? Presumably it will be Jeremiah Bell, a sophomore from Vincennes JC, where he averaged 14.3 points and 4.2 assists. Bell better come through, because there's not much else. Harvey might play the point in the pinch, but, well, he's just not really a point. Bryce Barnes, a freshman from Chicago, is the probably backup. Milwaukee scored big last year with juco point guard Jordan Johnson. They need Bell to come up big this year, and if he can handle it he'll get 30 minutes a game.

Up front, the Panthers need a big improvement from 6-9 redshirt junior Brett Prahl, who took a season total of 19 shots in 26 games off the bench last season. There's almost nothing else returning. Brett's twin brother Alex played in 9 games last year. The other returning front court players are walk-ons—as was Alex. Milwaukee's two best recruits should help out. Bryce Nze, a 6-7, 230 lb. power forward, is a good recruit and will get every chance to play. Zach Sadler, a 6-7, 200 lb. freshman from Texas, should see action at the #3 and #2 slots. Generally, the Panthers will probably use a lot of three guard lineups, with redshirt junior Brock Stull also getting some playing time.

The Panthers will be OK under Jordan, eventually. But this season will be a long one.

Probable Starters
PG – Jeremiah Bell, 6-0 Soph., 14.3 ppg, 4.2 apg, 39.4% 3PFG at Vincennes JC
SG – Cody Wichmann, 6-5 Sr., 4.8 ppg, 48.3% 3PFG
SF – Zach Sadler, 6-7 Fr.
PF – Bryce Nze, 6-7 Fr.
C – Brett Prahl, 6-9 RS Jr., 1.5 ppg, 0.7 rpg.

Key Reserves
G – Cameron Harvey, 6-0 Grad-Sr, 5.9 ppg, 36.3% 3PFG at Stetson
G – Bryce Barnes, 5-11 Fr.
G – Brock Stull, 6-4 RS Soph., 2.6 ppg.
G – Jeremy Johnson, 6-3 RS Fr.
F/C – Alex Prahl, 6-9 RS Jr., 0.7 ppg.

Horizon Teams by Experience, 2012-16
Rk...Team........ Yr..... Exp..... Record
1.... Valpo....... '13 .... 2.73 .... 13-3
2.... WSU........ '14 .... 2.43..... 10-6
3.... Valpo....... '16 .... 2.23..... 16-2
4.... Detroit..... '13 .... 2.23..... 12-4
5.... UIC......... '13 .... 2.17...... 7-9
6.... UWM   ...... '13 ..... 2.16 ..... 3-13
7.... Detroit ... '12 ..... 2.15 .... 11-7
8.... UWM .....   '12 ..... 2.14 .... 11-7
9.... UWM .....   '16 ..... 2.12 .... 10-8
10... GB ....... '15 ..... 2.09 .... 12-4
11... GB ........ '16 ..... 2.07 .... 11-7
12... UIC ....... '15 ..... 1.98 .... 4-12
13... YSU ....... '14 .... 1.96 .... 6-10
14... UWM ...... '14 .... 1.96 .... 7-9
15... CSU ....... '15 .... 1.93 .... 11-5
16... YSU ....... '12 .... 1.92 .... 10-8
17... UIC ....... '14 .... 1.92 .... 1-15
18... CSU ....... '12 .... 1.91 .... 12-6
19... YSU ....... '15 .... 1.89 .... 2-14
20... Valpo ..... '12 .... 1.85 .... 14-4
21... YSU ....... '13 .... 1.84 .... 7-9
22... OU ........ '14 .... 1.84 .... 7-9
23... WSU ...... '16 .... 1.83 .... 13-5
24... NKU ...... '16 .... 1.82 .... 5-13
25... UIC ....... '12 .... 1.78 .... 3-15
26... OU ....... '15 ..... 1.76 .... 11-5
27... CSU ...... '14 ..... 1.74 .... 12-4
28... GB ....... '14 ..... 1.68 .... 14-2
29... OU ....... '16 ..... 1.68 .... 13-5
30... WSU ..... '15 ..... 1.66 .... 3-13
31... Detroit ... '14 ..... 1.64 .... 6-10
32... UWM   .... '15 ..... 1.62 .... 9-7
33... Detroit ... '15 ..... 1.59 .... 7-9
34... Detroit ... '16 ..... 1.58 .... 9-9
35... Valpo .... '14 ..... 1.54 .... 9-7
36... Valpo .... '15 ..... 1.42 .... 13-3
37... Loyola ... '12 ..... 1.35 .... 1-17
38... GB ........ '13 .... 1.34 .... 10-6
39... Loyola ... '13 ..... 1.32 .... 5-11
40... WSU ..... '13 ..... 1.32 .... 10-6
41... WSU ..... '12 ..... 1.30 .... 7-11
42... Butler ... '12 ..... 1.28 .... 11-7
43... YSU ...... '16 ..... 1.20 .... 6-12
44... CSU ...... '16 ..... 1.16 .... 4-14
45... CSU ...... '13 ..... 1.16 .... 5-11
46... GB ....... '12 ..... 1.12 .... 10-8
47... UIC ...... '16 ..... 1.08 .... 4-15

[wh]

Green Bay

2016
Overall: 23-13, RPI #115
Conference: 11-7 (4th), won tournament

In year one of his first D-I head coaching job, Linc Darner did something Brian Wardle couldn't do even when he had Alec Brown and Kiefer Sykes—Darner got Green Bay to the NCAA tournament. There, the Phoenix were promptly hammered by Texas A&M in the first round. But they got there. One step at a time.

Optimism is high among the Cheeseheads as the 2016-17 season looms. Green Bay closed last season on a roll, winning of 8 of 9 before the NCAA tournament, the only loss by two points to regular season champion Valpo. The club returns all but two rotation players, and with a year to learn Darner's system, things can only get better, right?

Maybe. My observation is that teams that close a season on a roll, as the Phoenix did, tend to get a bit overrated and generate a little too much excitement headed into the following season. In what looks to be another down year for the Horizon, the Phoenix are a solid pick for the top 3 in the league—I'll pick them in the top three—but Phoenix fans may find them disappointing if they don't keep their expectations right-sized.

While Green Bay does lose just two players, they're pretty big losses. Graduating were the team's point guard and leading scorer, Carrington Love (17.3 ppg), and the team's best rebounder, defender, and all-around player, Jordan Fouse (12.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg), who were also their top two in minutes played by a considerable margin. It's always tough to lose a pair of all-conference selections.

The biggest obstacle to a repeat NCAA performance may be filling the point. Love's floor time increased as the year went on—in Green Bay's 10 final games (including the NCAA loss to A&M) he averaged nearly 37 minutes per game. With Love gone, competition to start will be between freshman Trevor Anderson and sophomore Anthony Brown. Brown started 5 games last year, but all told played just 324 minutes while appearing in 29 of the Phoenix's 36 games. Anderson, Wisconsin's 2016 Mr. Basketball, is the prize recruit of Darner's first full year of recruiting at Green Bay. He's fast, he's a great three-point shooter (55% as a HS senior), he can drive to the hoop, he's perfect for Darner's run and gun, shoot-the-three offense. I think he'll get first crack at the job. But it's always risky to be relying on a freshman to play the point, and Brown doesn't add a lot of experience if Anderson falters.

The rest of the roster is solid, despite the loss of Fouse, who was one of my favorite Horizon players.

The #2 guard is senior Charles Cooper, a big guard who can drive or post up, and rebounds well. Darner will use a three guard lineup with junior Khalil Small as the third guard. Like Cooper, Small is a muscular guy, and he plays bigger than his 6-2 height. He's a 40% career shooter from behind the arc.

A pair of seniors, 6-7 Turner Botz and 6-4 Tevin Findlay, give the Phoenix depth, size, and experience at guard. Findlay can play the point, and while not as good as Anderson or Brown, Darner may decide he likes that maturity out there. There's also Warren Jones, a 6-3 transfer from Bradley who becomes eligible this year. Jones was Bradley's leading scorer in 2015 at 11.9 ppg, though he shot just 34% overall (29.6% from three), and was suspended for 4 games during the season. Somewhat ironically, former Green Bay and new Bradley coach Brian Wardle booted him from the team last summer, and he transferred to Green Bay.

Anyway, that a lot of guards, but Darner almost always has 3 or even 4 guards on the floor, so there's lots of minutes.

Green Bay is a bit thin up front, but should be adequate. 6-8, 230 lb. Kenneth Lowe returns as the PF/C. Lowe has not developed as I thought he would when he entered the league, but he's an adequate starter. My best guess would be that the final starting spot goes to 6-7 senior Jamar Hurdle, who played in all 35 games last year, averaging 6.8 points off the bench. Depth is provided by 6-9 junior Kerem Kanter and 6-8 junior David Jesperson, a transfer from Pepperdine.

The Horizon, which just a few years ago was a defense-oriented league, has become an up-tempo conference. Last year Oakland, Detroit and Green Bay were ranked 1st, 7th, and 8th respectively in points per game, and 10th, 8th, and 6th respectively in offensive tempo. Darner calls his system RP40, for "relenteless pressure for 40 minutes." As Carrington Love described it last year, that means "playing fast, scoring a lot, getting a lot of steals." It's a fast, exciting style of play and Darner will regularly go deep down the bench to make it work. His core group of returning players have now had a year to learn the system, and that has to be a plus.

The Phoenix have won 71 games in the last three seasons, far more than any team in the league except Valpo (76) (third is Milwaukee, with 55). They'll be good again this year, but are probably not as good as last year's big finish will lead some to think. Still, second or third in conference play is likely, and another Horizon tournament run is certainly possible.

Probable Starters
PG – Trevor Anderson, 6-2 Fr.
G - Charles Cooper, 6-4 Sr. (13.6 ppg, 5.5. rpg).
G – Kahlil Small, 6-2 Jr. (10.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 40.6% 3PFG).
F – Jamar Hurdle, 6-7 Sr. (6.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg).
F/C – Kenneth Lowe, 6-8 Sr. (6.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg)

Other Key Players
G – Anthony Brown, 6-1 Soph. (2.6 ppg).
G – Tevin Findlay, 6-4 Sr. (4.8 ppg)
G – Warren Jones, 6-3 Sr. (11.9 ppg for Bradley in 2015).
G/F – Turner Botz, 6-7 Sr. (5.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg).
F – David Jesperson, 6-8 Jr. (1.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, at Pepperdine in 2015)
F – Kerem Kanter, 6-9 Jr. (3.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg).

The Phoenix also have a metropolitan Detroit area player on the roster in 6-5 freshman forward Kameron Hankerson of Novi.

[wh]

Wright State
2016
Overall: 22-13, RPI #141
Conference: 13-5 (Tie 2nd, 3rd w/ tiebreaker)

Titan Mike suggested I do a breakdown of how the preseason publications have fared in the past. Sounds good to me.

In each of the last three years, I've collected all the preseason previews I can find in one thread. I didn't try to scrounge around for earlier info, but I did go back and look at the predictions I collected from the 2014, 2015, and 2016 seasons.

Last year, Wright State was the most inaccurately predicted team in the Horizon. The Raiders were predicted to finish 8th by Athlon, and 7th by Sagarin, Blue Ribbon, The Sporting News, and a blog site called Staring at Floorboards, but went on to finish 3rd. They were also the most under-predicted team. Only CBS Sports correctly picked the Raiders to finish 3rd. Ken Pomeroy predicting them for second (they actually finished tied for second with Oakland, but third based on the tiebreaker). Youngstown was also under-predicted – in fact, every single one of the 17 sites I found that did top-to-bottom standing predictions for the Horizon picked YSU to finish worse than the 7th place they actually achieved. But on average, the prognosticators were considerably closer to getting YSU right than they were to pegging the Raiders.

The teams that were predicted too high were Cleveland State, Detroit and Milwaukee. Except for the website High Definition Hoops, everybody had CSU too high, and on average they were predicted to finish more than two spots higher than the did. The Titans were also over-predicted by all 17 pickers. Sports Illustrated alone got Milwaukee's 5th place finish correct. Pomeroy had them finishing 6th, and the blog site "Team Rankings" had them 7th. Everyone else predicted them to finish too high, with the total average overranking them by a slightly higher number than Detroit.

Of course, the old Commissioner is usually too smart to let himself get pinned down—in these previews I generally use nice generalities that can be squared with almost any finish that actually occurs. After all, I'm a trained lawyer. Still, I like what I wrote last year in summary on these teams:

Wright State: "The Raiders could well be the most improved team in the Conference this year.... It's easy to overlook the Raiders after last year's dismal collapse, but this team could come back quick."

Cleveland State: "I don't see CSU winning a lot of games this year—somewhere around 5th or 6th place would seem to be their upside, and it's possible the season gets really nasty..."

Milwaukee: "The Panthers are a trendy pick for third in the Horizon in the national publications, but Panther fans are talking championship, even contention for an at-large bid should they falter in the conference tournament. Well, again I have to deliver the bad news – the Panthers still aren't that good."

Detroit: "The young Titans have enough talent, I think, to get above .500, but how much more I don't know." (Titans finished 16-15.)

OK, bragging finished. There were 8 preseason prognosticators for which I have full, top-to-bottom predictions for each of the last three years. Here are the "standings" for these based on a very simple measure of accuracy – they get 1 point for each position a team finishes that differs from the prediction. Low score wins, like in Cross Country. The tie breaker (the # in parens) is the number of teams that the predictor slotted in its exact spot (including Horizon tiebreakers) at year end (so a higher score is better for the number in parentheses). The second tiebreaker is the best seasonal ranking for any one year.

1.   Ken Pomeroy 48 (6)
2.   NBC Sports 50 (4)
3.   Horizon League Official Poll 50 (4)
4.   ESPN 50 (4)
5.   Athlon 52 (5)
6.   Sporting News 52 (3)
7.   Lindy's 52 (3)
8.   Blue Ribbon 56 (1)

The best over just the past two years, by the way, is Sports Illustrated. Last year SI slotted 5 teams right into the correct slot, the best single season effort of any predictor in any year. But their overall score last year was third best, behind CBS and Ken Pomeroy. They were the second most accurate in 2015. But I don't have full top-to-bottom predictions from them for the 2014 season.

The best for last year alone was CBS Sports, which slotted just 4 teams correctly, to SI's 5, but overall was closer to the mark than SI. Last season was the first time CBS ranked the entire conference from 1 to 10, and their performance was the best single season prediction effort of any of the 48 predictions from 28 different predictors over the 3 years. The worst prediction for any one year came from a blog site called "Your Daily Dose of Hoops" for the 2014 season. That site is still around, but has smartly refrained from Horizon League predictions since. Of the 8 prognosticators with a full three year track record, the worst single season predictions came for the 2015 season, a three way tie of Lindy's, Blue Ribbon, and, somewhat surprisingly, Ken Pomeroy.

Back to Wright State. The prognosticators have had a tougher time pegging the Raiders than any other team. As noted, last year they were, collectively, more wrong on the Raiders than any other team. While under-predicting the Raiders in 2016, they vastly over-predicting the Raiders in 2015 (Oakland was the team that, overall, the predictors were most wrong about, with the Raiders a close second). In 2014, they were just middle of the pack wrong on Wright State, with Milwaukee being the team that everyone most got wrong (Milwaukee was an all but unanimous pick for last that year, but surprised with a 6th place finish and then a conference tournament championship). The prognosticators have been reasonably successful with the Titans—over the 3 years, combining all predictions, the Titans have been the 4th most accurately predicted team, after Green Bay, Valparaiso, and Youngstown State.

OK, now really back to Wright State. This year, the prognosticators are putting the Raiders in the middle of the pack. Nine of the 13 predictions I've tallied so far (see udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/6350/thread) have Wright State finishing 5th or 6th. Athlon and Lindy's have them finishing 4th. That's not crazy talk—it's not like they're picking WSU for 1st, and the Horizon is, even more than usual, a hodgepodge in which most teams have plenty of question marks. So sure, 4th. But there are reasons to doubt that the Raiders can break into the first division, and I think they are more likely to finish below 6th than above 5th.

For one thing, WSU loses three starters. That includes their best player and leading scorer, forward J.T. Yoho, their point guard and leader in rebounds and assists, Joe Thomasson, and their center, Michael Karena. Also gone is back-up point guard Biggie Minnis. All told, the Raiders lose their number 1, 3 and 4 scorers (Yoho, Thomasson, Karena), their # 1, 2, and 4 rebounders (Thomasson, Yoho, and Karena), and their top 3 in assists (Thomasson, Minnis and Yoho).

For another, the Raiders have size problems. They feature 4 players taller than 6-6, but they're not an impressive group. Respectively, they are rail-thin Parker Ernsthausen, a 6-11 red-shirt sophomore who averaged 1.7 points in 9 minutes per game last year; Steve Davis, a 6-8 graduate senior, who has been sidelined by injuries since December of 2014; freshman Loudon Love, a wide body (6-9, 300 lbs.) who missed all of his high school senior year due to injuries; and finally, 6-7 freshman Ryan Custer, who was the 38th ranked player in the 2016 Ohio senior class. With the possible exception of Milwaukee, that sounds like the weakest front court in the conference.

At guard, the Raiders return juniors Mark Alstork (12.4 points, 4.7 rpg) and Grant Benzinger (son of former major league ballplayer Todd Benzinger, 7.6 ppg). Both are good three point shooters and they'll both likely start in a three guard lineup. I had thought the point guard could be Mark Hughes, a 6-4 soph who started 20 games last year as a true freshman. Hughes averaged just 3.5 ppg, but shot a respectable 34.6 percent from behind the arc. More importantly, he had a very good 2.4/1 a/to ratio. The most telling stat, though, may be that Wright State was 16-4 in games started by Hughes, but just 6-9 when Hughes came off the bench. However, word out of Dayton is that Coach Nagy plans to use Alstork, a shooting guard thus far in college, at the point. Junior Justin Mitchell, sophomore Alan Vest, and grad transfer Mark LaTulip, who played 3 years as a walk-on at Illinois, provide depth at guard.

I think the Raiders got a great hire with new head coach Scott Nagy. He'll be breaking in a much faster style of play than that of Billy Donovan, which should make the Raiders a more exciting team to watch, but may take a while to make effective. The early schedule, however, is favorable. After opening at Southern Illinois, WSU will play six straight in the Nutter Center, and only one of those opponents (Cal State-Bakersfield) had an RPI below 150 last year. Penn State is the only Power 6 team on the schedule. So the Raiders could be fast out of the gate.

But I'm not sure they can keep it up in conference play. The Raiders have shooters, including multiple 3-point threats. But they'll be shifting Alstork to the point in an offense that places a lot of emphasis on a good point guard. There is little front court depth and no proven low-post threat. Finally, the Raiders, who lose three of their top 4 rebounders after finishing 9th in the league last year in rebounding margin, will likely struggle on the boards.

I think the first division finish being projected by about half of the preseason publications is a bit optimistic. Interestingly, the most accurate predictors of the last two years, CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated, don't agree at all on the Raiders, with CBS placing them 5th and SI, an outlier on this one, pegging them for last. Of the sources with the best 3-year track records, Ken Pomeroy isn't up with pre-season rankings as of this writing, while NBC picks the Raiders to finish 6th.

For fellow nerds, I have a table with all of this year's predictions at http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... 350/thread.

Projected Starters
PG – Mark Alstork, 6-5 RS Jr. (12.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, .378 3P%)
G – Mark Hughes, 6-4 Soph. (3.4 ppg, 1.2 apg, 2.44 a/to)
G – Grant Benzinger, 6-3 Jr. (7.6 ppg, .390 3P%)
PF – Steve Davis, 6-8 RS Sr. (DNP in 2016; averaged 7.1 ppg and 3.3 rpg in 14 games during 2015)
C – Parker Ernsthausen, 6-11 RS Soph. (1.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg).

Key Reserves
G- Justin Mitchell, 6-3 Jr. (3.2 ppg)
G- Alan Vest, 6-3 Soph (1.5 ppg)
F – Ryan Custer, 6-7 Fr.
F/C – Loudon Love, 6-9 F

[valporun]

I think the Raiders got a great hire with new head coach Scott Nagy. He'll be breaking in a much faster style of play than that of Billy Donovan, which should make the Raiders a more exciting team to watch, but may take a while to make effective.

Are you sure you don't mean Billy Donlan?

[bbtds]

I think the Raiders got a great hire with new head coach Scott Nagy. He'll be breaking in a much faster style of play than that of Billy Donovan, which should make the Raiders a more exciting team to watch, but may take a while to make effective.

Are you sure you don't mean Billy Donlan?

I'm sure the Commissioner meant Billy Donlon (spelled with two o's). Billy Donlon, BTW, is now an asst coach under John Beilein at Michigan.

FYI, Billy Donovan is now the head coach for the NBA Oklahoma City Thunder.


BILLY DONLON



BILLY DONOVAN

[wh]

Oakland
2016 Record:
23-12, RPI 105
Conference: 13-5 (2nd)

So, OU is on the bus back from a game at Wright State. The driver says something to Kampe, and Kampe says to the nearest player, "hey, stick your head out the window and see if the blinker is working." The kid sticks his head out. "Yes, no, yes, no, yes, no."

Titan fan goes into a bar. Sits down and says to the guy on the stool next to him, "hey, you want to hear a good OU joke?" The guy replies, "Well, before you start, let me tell you something. I'm 6-2, 210 lbs., and play guard for the Grizzlies. And the guy on the other side of me--he's 6-6, 225 pounds, and plays forward. And the guy next to him is 6-9, 245 lbs., and plays center. So, you still wanna tell that joke?" The Titans fan thinks about it for a second. "Nah, it's not worth explaining three times."

Hey, I'll be here all season. Leave your tips with the Moose at the door.

You know what the real OU reply would be? "Five out of six, baby." And every Titan fan would know exactly what he meant. We've got bad jokes. They've got good Ws.

Basically the Titan fan nightmare is coming true. Oakland entered the league right as the Titans, coming off back-to-back NCAA and NIT appearances, were rebuilding with the losses of Ray McCallum, Nick Minnerath, and Jason Calliste. Oakland meanwhile, was just hitting an upswing propelled by diminutive guard Kay Felder. The Grizzlies have dominated the Titans, winning 5 of 6 head-to-head match-ups and finishing ahead of the Titans in the conference standings all three years. Unfortunately, the smart money would predict that dominance to continue for at least two more years. And despite Felder's early departure for the NBA, the Grizz may be good enough to get an NCAA or NIT bid themselves, something they've missed out on since dominating the Summit Conference in 2010 and 2011. A Felder-led Oakland team might have been a Horizon powerhouse, but the Felderless Grizz should still be in the top three teams in the conference. And there's scarcely a senior on the team. Can you grit your teeth and say "nine out of ten"? Because it's a real possibility. Yuck.

Even without Felder, the Grizzlies could draw some national attention if they play well early and things break their way. Oakland opens the season with games against Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Goshen and Chicago State. Bowling Green was picked to finish last in the MAC East; Western is usually respectable but they're coming off a 13-19 season and playing at Oakland that should be a relatively easy Grizzly win; Goshen is D-III fodder and Chicago State is D-I fodder. Then comes OU's first real test, at the Great Alaska Shootout. The Great Alaska, once the college game's premier fall tournament, has become a showcase for mid-majors, but as usual it's a good field of mid-majors. OU opens with Nevada, then will likely face Buffalo and either Iona or Weber State. Nevada has been picked to finish 2nd in the Mountain West, so that will be a challenge. But if OU wins, Buffalo is down after consecutive NCAA appearances, and while Iona or Weber will be good, they're also mid-majors. Those are all tough games and OU could lose all three. But they're also all beatable.

If Oakland can sweep up in Anchorage, a very real possibility, then it's Oral Roberts, Southern Utah, and Northeastern at home, with a road game at a struggling Robert Morris mixed in. It is not at all unrealistic that OU could be 11-0 come Christmas week, and ranked or at least getting a few votes. That would set up a huge match-up with Michigan State in East Lansing, probably getting more local press than the Titans will get all year, followed by Georgia at the McRena—the best non-con home game for any Horizon team this year.

For the Grizzlies to get off to that kind of start, they need, obviously, to replace Felder. That will fall to Stevie Clark, the latest Kampe reclamation. Clark was a 4 star recruit in high school, who went to Oklahoma State to back up Marcus Smart and then take his place after graduation. He was seeing decent PT as a freshman and doing OK, but he was suspended for a few games in the fall for a team "rules violation," then suspended for the season after being arrested for marijuana possession in January and public urination in February. Clark enrolled at a community college for the 2014-15 season but dropped out and never played a game there. Later he sued the Oklahoma State, alleging, among other things, that coach Travis Ford had a) promised him a Camaro during his recruitment, and b) forced him to take pschotropic drugs. OSU moved to dismiss, but one can't find anything more on the case. Anyway, Clark enrolled and played last season at Arkansas Baptist JC, averaging 14.1 ppg and shooting 39% from three.

I have no idea what Clark will do this year, but if he fails, Kampe has a couple of fallbacks. One is freshman guard Brailen Neely, a Felder-like player who should be a good one. Alternatively, he can go with Sherron Dorsey-Walker, a senior who transferred in last year from Iowa State and played well at the #2 spot. Redshirt junior Nick Daniels can also play the point. None of these three will be Felder (well, actually, I suppose Clark could, if he suddenly became top 75 national recruit Stevie Clark), but they ought to adequately cover the position and the #2 guard as well.

In the front court, OU has all-conference junior Jalen Hayes, who just keeps getting better, to play the 4. The 3 will fall to silky smooth Martez "Melonhead" Walker, another Kampe project. Walker came to OU after getting the boot from Texas, where he was playing over 20 minutes a game for an NCAA tournament team by the end of his freshman year. Walker missed the first part of last year after doing the mid-season transfer bit the year before, and it took him a while to hit his stride, but over the final third of the season he averaged 12.8 points per game. Walker is my pick to have a breakout season in the Horizon, and if he does, OU will be very tough.

With the graduation of center Percy Gibson, 6-11 sophomore Brad Brechting will see a big increase in minutes. Brechting was expected to redshirt last year, but earned a rotation spot with his play on the Grizzlies summer trip to Spain. By mid-season he had displaced Gibson in the starting line-up, although Gibson continued to get the lion's share of minutes. Brechting played just 27 minutes in Oakland's final 8 games, without scoring. In other words, Brechting has to get better. If he doesn't, 6-7, 240 lb. sophomore Xavier Hill-Maas will get more minutes, but I suspect Kampe would prefer to use Hill-Maas as a backup to both Brechting and Hayes. Behind those three, there's very little size or experience. Skinny 6-8 freshman James Edwards, Jr., son of the former Piston James "Buddha" Edwards, may get some chances. 6-8 freshman Isaiah Brock, a 22 year old Afghan War vet, could also help. Another interesting freshman is 6-6 Chris Palombizio, a two-time all-stater in Indiana and the son of Dan Palombizio, former NBAer and the #3 scorer in the nation for Ball State back in 1985. He could play this year.

Oakland has a couple question marks—who will fill the point? Can Brechting step up to a bigger role? How good will Clark be?—and they are thin on size, to be sure. But this is potentially a very good team that could give Valpo a run for the money in the Horizon. It's a team perfectly geared to Kampe's playing style, with speed, excellent 3 point shooting and foul shooting, and if Clark or Neely come through, a driving point guard with tremendous quickness to run the show.

The only senior is Dorsey-Walker, and already lined up to join the team next year is yet another quality player with an arrest record, Illinois transfer Kendrick Nunn. Are Titan fans psychologically ready to be 1-9 in the Metro Cup in two years? Bacari has a major challenge on his hands.

Probable Starters
PG- Stevie Clark, 5-11 Jr. (14.1 ppg, 39.3% 3PtFG, 91.7% FT for Arkansas Baptist JC; 5.3 ppg, 2.7 apg, 41% 3PtFG for Oklahoma State in 2014).
SG- Sherron Dorsey-Walker, 6-4 RS Sr. (6.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg)
SF- Martez Walker, 6-6 RS Jr. (10.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, .413 3PtFG)
PF- Jalen Hayes, 6-7 RS Jr. (13.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg)
C- Brad Brechting, 6-11 Soph. (1.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.9 bpg)

Other Key Players
G- Nick Daniels, 6-1 RS Jr. (6.5 ppg, 1.6 apg, .382 3PtFG)
G- Brailen Neely, 5-9 Fr.
F- Xavier Hill-Maas, 6-7 Soph. (3.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg

[vu72]

followed by Georgia at the McRena—the best non-con home game for any Horizon team this year.

Very well written as always with the notable misstatement noted above.  In the latest poll Rhode Island is ranked 24th while Georgia is ranked 46th receiving 6 votes.  At home, Oakland should win that one.

Clearly the nod goes to Valpo for scheduling.

[VULB#62]

72 -- Spot-on on URI. Betcha the "McArena" was on purpose.

Annual thanks to WH for reposting the Commish on our site. And kudos to the Commish for his insightful analysis. Always entertaining, thoughtful and perceptive. I always wait with anticipation for this string.

[bbtds]

72 -- Spot-on on URI. Betcha the "McArena" was on purpose.

McRena actually

"I'm lovin' it." (Steve Easterbrook)

[4throwfan]

Simply echoing VULB#62.  I really appreciate the Commissioner's write-ups and WH for re-posting.

[Commissioner]

followed by Georgia at the McRena—the best non-con home game for any Horizon team this year. Very well written as always with the notable misstatement noted above.  In the latest poll Rhode Island is ranked 24th while Georgia is ranked 46th receiving 6 votes.  At home, Oakland should win that one. Clearly the nod goes to Valpo for scheduling.

Rhody is likely a tougher opponent this year but I consider Georgia--a Power 5 school--a better scheduling "get." I think for the casual fan Georgia is a bigger name, and I think a W over Georgia gathers a bit more attention from that casual fan than a W over Rhody (although if Rhody is ranked at game time, that will certainly draw attention.) Detroit had Rhody into Calihan just a couple years ago--hosting an SEC team is pretty rare--I think the last was UD hosting Mississippi State in 2011. Other than Wisconsin playing at its in-state sister schools, I think the last Power 5 school to play at a Horizon school was Virginia at Green Bay three years ago.


So that was my thinking. Here's another post I put together in my bored, nerdy moments, ranking the best and worst non-conference games this year.  http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net/post/6428/thread

Thanks to those who expressed compliments for the previews.

[wh]

Valparaiso
2016:
Overall: 30-7 (RPI #31)
Conference: 16-2 (1st)

A while back, the Valpo blog featured a fun, well-written post with a subjective ranking of the biggest home court advantages in the Horizon. http://www.valpofanzone.com/2016/08/17/ ... no-s-10-6/. Naturally, the piece concluded that the ARC was the biggest home court advantage in the conference. Me being me, I decided to play with some numbers.

Here are the composite home and away records for current Horizon League teams over the past 9 years—since Valpo joined the league. By looking only at conference play, we mostly remove strength of schedule (not completely—the best teams always play the weakest conference schedule, since they don't play themselves, and so on down through the conference standings). It gets a pretty decent sample—156 games for all but Oakland and NKU. Then I compare the home vs. road winning percentages, and see who has the biggest difference.

Horizon Home and Away 2008-2016 (156 games)
Rk...Team .. Overall ........ Home ................. Road............. Diff.
1.   GB .... 98-58 .. .628 ... 63-15 ... .808 ... 35-43 ... .449 ... +.359
2.   Mil .... 83-73 .. .532 ... 52-26 ... .667 ... 31-47 ... .397 .... +.270
3.   UIC ... 39-117. .250 ... 29-49 ... .372 ... 10-68 ... .128 .... +.244
4.   CSU .. 91-65 .. .583 ... 55-23 ... .705 ... 36-42 ... .462 .... +.243
5.   WS .... 89-67 . .571 ... 54-24 ... .692 ... 35-43 ... .449 .... +.243
6.   YSU .. 47-109 . .301 .. 32-46 ... .410 ... 15-63 ... .192 .... +.218
7.   Val. . 101-55 . .647 ... 57-21 ... .731 ... 44-34 ... .564 .... +.167
8.   Det. .. 69-87 . .442 ... 40-38 ... .513 ... 29-49 ... .372 .... +.141
9.   OU .... 31-19 . .620 ... 17-8 ..... .680 ... 14-11 ... .560 .... +.120
10.   NKU .. 5-13 . .278 .... 3-6 ..... .333 ...... 2-7 ..... .222 .... +.111

As mentioned, Valpo fans being Valpo fans, their blogger of course ranked the ARC as the toughest place to play in conference. It is true that Valpo has the second highest conference home court winning percentage of any Horizon team over these 9 years, but they also have the highest road winning percentage. In other words, they've just been really good, so winning at Valpo is really tough. But Valpo doesn't do all that much better at home than on the road. In fairness, when you win over 56% of your road games, it's hard to do a lot better at home. But Valpo's differential really is pretty small, compared to, say, UIC which has the worst home winning percentage not counting NKU. Because when you lost over 60% of your home games, it's hard to do a lot worse on the road.

Green Bay's Resch Center appears to give the greatest home court advantage. The Phoenix's home court winning percentage is .359 better than their road percentage. They go from a conference best .808 at home to just .449 on the road. In short, on the road Green Bay is a mediocre club—tied for 4th with Wright State. At home, they're a tiger, in absolute numbers six games better than Valpo, even though Valpo has had better overall teams.

As you can see, the Titans, despite having the longest home winning streak in the nation for a time back at the turn of the century, and one of the 10 longest as recently as the 2013 season, have in fact not gotten much advantage from playing in Calihan.

Meanwhile, home court advantage or not, Valpo has taken the place of Butler as the league's showcase team, finishing first in the regular season in 4 of the past 5 years, after being 1 game off the pace in 2011. But they've not quite gotten over the hump into the highest echelon of mid-major programs, with Gonzaga, Wichita State, and such. They've gotten to the NCAA just twice in this time, and lost both times in the first round. Last year's run to the NIT final was nice—and further proof that when good mid-major teams can schedule top teams at home or on neutral courts, they can win. But it wasn't the NCAAs.

So the Crusaders, now under first year head coach Matt Lottich, will attempt another run in 2017, and they are, again, the near unanimous favorite to win the conference. And that's a tribute to how good the Crusader program has become. Not many mid-major teams could lose their coach, the Conference Defensive Player of the Year (Center Vashil Fernandez), a quality point guard like Keith Carter, and three other rotation players (graduating seniors Victor Nickerson and Darien Walker, and David Skara, who transferred to Clemson) who between them made 38 starts last season, and still be the conference favorite.

Much of the optimism is thanks to the decision of forward Alec Peters to return for his senior season. FWIW, I think he made the right choice—I strongly suspect he would not have been selected had he stayed in the draft, and he'll probably do more for his 2017 draft prospects as the star at Valpo then as a transfer, and the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th option at a high major program. I suspect Peters is a delight to coach. He's a guy who plays for the team rather than individual stats, who can knock down a three or bang inside, who runs the court well, makes free throws, and plays defense. He's a deservedly unanimous pre-season choice for Conference Player of the Year.

The big question mark, and what could be the difference between Valpo as a Sweet 16 contender and Valpo as a first round loser or NIT squad, is whether they can fill the shoes of Carter at the point. Carter was overshadowed last year in the Horizon by All-American Kay Felder and Milwaukee's Jordan Johnson, the nation's top two assist men, but you could make one helluva case (which I'll spare you here) that he was actually the league's most valuable player. Valpo has several reasonable candidates to replace Carter. None are likely to be as good, but the trick will be to minimize the falloff.

The logical candidate, if you ask me, would be Junior Tevonn Walker (8.8 ppg, 1.6 apg), a two-year starter who was listed as a point guard coming out of high school, and who logged some time at the position as a freshman in 2015 when Carter was injured for 10 games. But for whatever reason, it appears that Lottich is not considering Walker for the role. An intriguing possibility is senior Shane Hammink, who played a bit there last season and who, at 6-7, can see over most Horizon guards. But Hammink had more turnovers than assists last season. He's just not a point guard. Perhaps more important is the opportunity cost of playing Hammink at the point. Hammink is a really good off-the-ball player, who moves well and who can post-up shorter guards or drive to the hoop if he gets the ball reasonably close to the basket. In short, the team probably benefits more if Hammink is a guy you pass the ball to rather than a guy you get the ball from.

The three real competitors, then, are juniors Lexus Williams and Max Joseph, and freshman Micah Bradford.

Williams was on the Horizon All-Freshman team way back in 2014. He tore his ACL and missed the 2015 season, and then broke his kneecap seven months later. Though he was in uniform all season last year, he played just 92 minutes—virtually all garbage minutes—in 16 games. One can subscribe to different theories about Williams:
a.   The injuries have permanently slowed him. His big asset was quickness, and losing a half step has reduced him to a bit player.
b.   This year he will be fully recovered, and should resume the form that earned him the starting point position as a freshman.
c.   The injuries may have slowed him, but maybe he wasn't that good anyway.

I'm personally more and more leaning towards C. I was really high on Williams as a freshman, but looking back at the statistical record (who ya' gonna believe, Commish, the stats or your lyin' eyes?), Williams might always have been overrated. Valpo really lacked a good point guard that year, with Carter becoming eligible only in mid-December and then being hampered by injuries. Williams got the job almost by default. In January he put together an impressive string of games, including a 22 point, 4 assist, 4 rebound, 5-7 shooting performance against the Titans that may have made my eyes value him a bit too much. But overall, the numbers aren't really that impressive. He shot just 38 percent from the floor, and his assist/turnover ration was a so-so 1.37-1. His offensive rating (a fancy stat developed by Ken Pomeroy to try to measure all contributions in one number) was the 7th worst among the league's starters. He also hit a wall just after that Detroit game, shooting just 27.8% from the floor (28.6% from three) in the final 15 games of the season, and over the season's final 10 games had an equal number of assists and turnovers. Anyway, if he is back to his 2014 form, he'll get a shot, but I'm not sure that's all that good a form.

Joseph was a high school teammate of Walker and actually played the point more often than his more highly recruited teammate. When Carter missed 10 games in 2015, Joseph logged some credible minutes off the bench. Last year, his playing time declined by about 50%, to just 178 minutes on the year, and he shot a paltry 26% from the floor. Joseph is a nice guy to have around, but unless he's gotten a lot better, he's a solid bench player, not the point guard on a conference champion.

That leaves Bradford, a three-star recruit per Rivals and the pride of Valpo's 2016 recruiting class. Bradford is what they call a "high motor" player, quick and very active on both offense and defense. He's a good three point shooter, as well. I don't know if Bradford will start on opening night, but I'm pretty confident he'll be starting by season's end, and probably quite a bit sooner.

Besides questions about the point, Valpo's other potential weakness is lack of depth up front. Too go with Peters they've got 6-7, 230 lb. senior Jubril Adekoya, the league's 6th Man of the Year in 2015, and 7-2 redshirt freshman Derrik Smits, son of former Indiana Pacer Rik. Much is expected of Smits, who was redshirted because of injuries rather than not being skill-ready. An across the board 3-star recruit, Smits chose Valpo over Butler, Xavier, and Clemson, among others. He is the probably the most highly recruited true center to go straight from high school to the Horizon since at least the old MCC days. But after those three, there is very little size. I would expect Jaime Sorolla, a slim, 6-11 freshman from Tortosa, Spain, to get some playing time, but don't expect him to be a major factor as a freshman. The only other front court players are walk-ons.

I would expect Lottich to use a three guard lineup with whoever wins the point job plus Walker and Hammink starting alongside Peters and Smits. That will leave Adekoya in his familiar, and productive, role of coming off the bench to back up both the center and forward slots.

Valpo was 9th in the nation last year in scoring defense, 8th in defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. In the increasingly run-and-gun Horizon, that kind of defense stands out, and there's nothing to suggest Lottich, an assistant to the departed Bryce Drew, is going to change the basic game plan. Smits probably won't be immediately as effective as a rim protector as Fernandez was last year, but I suspect his 7-2 frame and long reach will still leave teams unwilling to charge too recklessly down the lane. But while defense is Valpo's advantage, the Crusaders are no slouch on the offensive end. Walker, Peters and Hammink can get up and down the court with the speedsters at Green Bay and Youngstown, and my guess is Bradford can, too.

Though Valpo is a heavy favorite to win the league, deservedly IMHO, there are potential trouble areas. If they can't find a solid point guard to run the show, there may be no one to get it to two of the league's best offensive players, Peters and Hammink. The team is not deep, and if Smits doesn't come through, they will be dangerously thin up front. Other than Peters, there's no reliable three-point threat. We'll have to see how everyone responds to the new coach. Worst of all, it doesn't appear that the ARC provides a big home court advantage, after all. But the ARC does get noisy, and the Crusaders are the favorites either way.

Meanwhile, for anyone hoping the emerging Valpo dynasty will end with the graduation of Peters, Hammink, and Adekoya, the Crusaders will add three potential impact transfers next year in Detroiter Bakari Evelyn (recently of Nebraska), David Middleton (Utah State), and Joe Burton (Oklahoma State), all of whom are sitting out a transfer year. Additionally, they already have a commitment from 6-7 Parker Hazen, an ESPN 3-star recruit. They're not going away soon.

Probable Starters
PG- Micah Bradford, 6-2 Fr.
SG- Tevonn Walker, 6-2 Jr. (8.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.6 apg)
G/F- Shane Hammink, 6-7 RS Sr. (8.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.7 apg)
F- Alec Peters, 6-8 Sr. (18.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, .505 FG%, .440 3PtFG%, .850 FT%)
C- Derrick Smits, 7-2 RS Fr.

Other Key Players
G- Max Joseph 6-1 Jr. (1.5 ppg)
G- Lexus Williams 6-0 RS Jr. (1.5 ppg)
PF- Jubril Adekoya, 6-7 Sr. (6.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, .503 FG%)

[vu72]

Great and fun read.  As always, very well done.

Two things:  I doubt Valpo thinks of Jaime Sorolla as "slim" at 6'11" 240#.  Based on some reports he may be further along then Derrik.  Secondly, Valpo did lose their two recent appearances in the NCAA tournament but it was in the SECOND round not he first.