RealTimeRPI Beginning of the season Game by Game Predictions

talksalot · November 15, 2017, 10:20:42 PM

thought it might be fun to see how this progresses through the season. Before the SIUE game, Valpo's RPI was 337, SIUE was 49.

11-15 at SIU Edwardsville 0-1 (0-0) 49 77-69 W - Scouting ACTUAL: 94-69 - w
11-19 SE Louisiana 0-1 (0-0) 72 83-65 W - Scouting
11-21 Samford 1-1 (0-0) 175 80-69 W - Scouting
11-24 vs Kent St. 1-0 (0-0) 251 74-73 W - Scouting
11-25 vs N.C. Wilmington 0-1 (0-0) 138 73-78 L - Scouting
11-28 Utah St. 1-1 (0-0) 131 80-68 W - Scouting
12-07 at Purdue 3-0 (0-0) 44 65-89 L - Scouting
12-09 at Ball St. 0-1 (0-0) 350 71-77 L - Scouting
12-14 at Northwestern 2-0 (0-0) 130 65-80 L - Scouting
12-18 at Santa Clara 0-0 (0-0) 324 73-75 L - Scouting
12-20 at UC Riverside 1-0 (0-0) 10 76-70 W - Scouting
12-28 at Indiana St. 1-0 (0-0) 14 73-74 L - Scouting
12-31 Missouri St. 1-0 (0-0) 278 80-68 W - Scouting
01-03 at Bradley 2-0 (0-0) 31 73-75 L - Scouting
01-06 Southern Ill. 1-0 (0-0) 210 79-70 W - Scouting
01-10 Drake 0-0 (0-0) 314 86-61 W - Scouting
01-13 at Northern Iowa 1-1 (0-0) 233 72-76 L - Scouting
01-17 at Missouri St. 1-0 (0-0) 278 72-76 L - Scouting
01-21 Loyola Chicago 1-0 (0-0) 203 79-69 W - Scouting
01-24 Evansville 2-0 (0-0) 40 80-69 W - Scouting
01-27 at Illinois St. 0-1 (0-0) 125 64-76 L - Scouting
01-31 Indiana St. 1-0 (0-0) 14 82-66 W - Scouting
02-03 at Southern Ill. 1-0 (0-0) 210 71-78 L - Scouting
02-07 at Evansville 2-0 (0-0) 40 72-77 L - Scouting
02-11 Illinois St. 0-1 (0-0) 125 72-67 W - Scouting
02-14 at Loyola Chicago 1-0 (0-0) 203 71-77 L - Scouting
02-17 Bradley 2-0 (0-0) 31 81-67 W - Scouting
02-20 Northern Iowa 1-1 (0-0) 233 80-68 W - Scouting
02-24 at Drake 0-0 (0-0) 314 77-69 W - Scouting

that's 16-13 overall, 10-8 in the Valley

valpo4life · November 16, 2017, 08:31:53 AM

UPDATE:

RPI ranking now at 239

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     0-2 (0-0)   267    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     0-1 (0-0)   106    83-65 W - Scouting
11-21         Samford     1-1 (0-0)   201    80-68 W - Scouting
11-24     vs    Kent St.     1-0 (0-0)   288    70-71 L - Scouting
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     0-1 (0-0)   150    74-75 L - Scouting
11-28         Utah St.     2-1 (0-0)   101    81-68 W - Scouting
12-07     at    Purdue     3-0 (0-0)   69    68-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     0-2 (0-0)   306    72-77 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     2-1 (0-0)   183    67-78 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-1 (0-0)   61    72-77 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-1 (0-0)   161    78-70 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-0 (0-0)   62    75-74 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     2-0 (0-0)   151    81-68 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     2-0 (0-0)   33    74-75 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-0 (0-0)   237    79-70 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     0-0 (0-0)   334    87-61 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     1-1 (0-0)   168    73-76 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     2-0 (0-0)   151    73-76 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     1-0 (0-0)   230    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     2-0 (0-0)   58    81-68 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     0-1 (0-0)   140    67-74 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-0 (0-0)   62    83-66 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-0 (0-0)   237    71-78 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     2-0 (0-0)   58    72-76 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     0-1 (0-0)   140    76-65 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     1-0 (0-0)   230    72-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     2-0 (0-0)   33    82-66 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     1-1 (0-0)   168    81-68 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     0-0 (0-0)   334    78-69 W - Scouting

Still 16-13 overall, but now 11-7 in the Valley

covufan · November 16, 2017, 11:55:53 AM

In addition to RTPower, I also follow these projection sites:

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=298892

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/projections

I don't recall what our projections were prior to SIUE (sigh u eee or see u eee?), but we are improving!

oklahomamick · November 16, 2017, 01:31:24 PM

so it's predicting every conference road game is a loss.

talksalot · November 16, 2017, 01:40:17 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on November 16, 2017, 01:31:24 PMso it's predicting every conference road game is a loss.

referring back to the original post...
...Except Drake...

Love to pay them back for that streak they own over us on the gridiron.

valpo4life · November 20, 2017, 08:09:18 AM

UPDATE:

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-2 (0-0)   75    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     0-3 (0-0)   237    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     1-3 (0-0)   169    81-67 W - Scouting
11-24     vs    Kent St.     2-0 (0-0)   282    71-70 W - Scouting
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-1 (0-0)   140    74-75 L - Scouting
11-28         Utah St.     2-2 (0-0)   217    82-67 W - Scouting
12-07     at    Purdue     4-0 (0-0)   13    67-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     1-3 (0-0)   233    73-76 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     3-2 (0-0)   130    67-78 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-2 (0-0)   294    73-75 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-2 (0-0)   63    79-69 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   181    76-72 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     2-1 (0-0)   225    82-67 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   67    75-74 W - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-0 (0-0)   322    80-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     2-1 (0-0)   90    85-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     2-1 (0-0)   172    73-76 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     2-1 (0-0)   225    73-75 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     3-0 (0-0)   182    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     4-0 (0-0)   115    80-69 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   96    68-74 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   181    84-64 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-0 (0-0)   322    72-77 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     4-0 (0-0)   115    72-77 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   96    76-66 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     3-0 (0-0)   182    72-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   67    82-66 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     2-1 (0-0)   172    81-68 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     2-1 (0-0)   90    77-71 W - Scouting

18-11 Overall, 12-6 in MVC play

valpo4life · November 22, 2017, 10:07:09 AM

UPDATE:

RPI now sits at 50

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-2 (0-0)   68    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     1-3 (0-0)   90    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     1-4 (0-0)   159    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     2-1 (0-0)   335    72-69 W - Scouting
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-1 (0-0)   272    74-75 L - Scouting
11-28         Utah St.     2-3 (0-0)   180    82-67 W - Scouting
12-07     at    Purdue     4-0 (0-0)   18    68-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     1-3 (0-0)   231    72-76 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     3-2 (0-0)   119    67-78 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-2 (0-0)   304    73-75 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-2 (0-0)   126    78-70 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   174    76-73 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     3-2 (0-0)   136    81-67 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   62    74-75 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-1 (0-0)   152    80-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     2-1 (0-0)   87    85-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     2-1 (0-0)   163    72-76 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     3-2 (0-0)   136    73-76 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     4-0 (0-0)   179    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     5-0 (0-0)   66    80-69 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   116    68-74 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   174    84-64 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-1 (0-0)   152    72-77 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     5-0 (0-0)   66    71-77 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   116    76-66 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     4-0 (0-0)   179    71-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   62    82-66 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     2-1 (0-0)   163    81-68 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     2-1 (0-0)   87    77-71 W - Scouting

17-12 Overall, 11-7 in MVC play

Interesting thing here: I think most of us looked forward to this Thanksgiving tournament to see what we are made of, etc but it turns out they are two of our worst RPI games on the schedule, as of now.

crusadermoe · November 22, 2017, 02:35:53 PM

RPI always starts out weird. Sagarin seems pretty close.

Santa Clara will rise dramatically.

SIUE will plummet.

VU2014 · November 23, 2017, 11:16:27 PM

valpo's rpi ranking is: #69 right behind UWM at 68 and before Illinois at 70.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi2.html

valpo4life · November 25, 2017, 10:25:04 AM

UPDATE:

RPI: 53 SOS: 202

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-3 (0-0)   74    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     2-3 (0-0)   98    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     1-5 (0-0)   234    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     2-2 (0-0)   309    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-2 (0-0)   263    76-75 W - Scouting
11-28         Utah St.     3-3 (0-0)   194    81-67 W - Scouting
12-07     at    Purdue     5-2 (0-0)   77    68-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     1-4 (0-0)   295    73-76 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     4-2 (0-0)   155    67-78 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-3 (0-0)   306    73-75 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-2 (0-0)   193    79-69 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   105    75-73 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     4-2 (0-0)   114    81-68 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   32    74-75 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-1 (0-0)   122    80-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     2-1 (0-0)   60    85-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   59    72-77 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     4-2 (0-0)   114    73-76 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     5-0 (0-0)   152    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   82    80-69 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   93    68-74 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-3 (0-0)   105    84-64 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-1 (0-0)   122    72-77 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   82    72-77 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-2 (0-0)   93    76-66 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     5-0 (0-0)   152    71-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     4-1 (0-0)   32    82-67 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   59    80-69 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     2-1 (0-0)   60    77-71 W - Scouting

18-11 Overall, 11-7 in MVC play

valpo4life · November 26, 2017, 04:52:45 PM

UPDATE:

RPI: 73 SOS: 263

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-4 (0-0)   141    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     3-3 (0-0)   136    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     1-5 (0-0)   237    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     2-3 (0-0)   275    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-3 (0-0)   248    79-70    W
11-28         Utah St.     4-3 (0-0)   199    82-67 W - Scouting
12-07     at    Purdue     5-2 (0-0)   80    68-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     2-4 (0-0)   217    73-76 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     4-2 (0-0)   161    67-78 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-4 (0-0)   335    74-75 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-2 (0-0)   219    78-69 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-4 (0-0)   225    76-72 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     4-2 (0-0)   109    81-68 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   20    74-75 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-2 (0-0)   179    81-68 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     2-1 (0-0)   67    85-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   57    72-77 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     4-2 (0-0)   109    73-76 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     6-0 (0-0)   118    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   78    80-69 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-3 (0-0)   129    68-75 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-4 (0-0)   225    84-64 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-2 (0-0)   179    73-76 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   78    72-77 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-3 (0-0)   129    76-66 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     6-0 (0-0)   118    72-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   20    82-67 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   57    80-69 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     2-1 (0-0)   67    77-71 W - Scouting

18-11 Overall, 11-7 in MVC play

This is cool to follow along, etc. But I really question how it predicts us to lose at a winless Santa Clara but beat UC Riverside.

wh · November 26, 2017, 06:15:32 PM

The minute the OOC schedule was posted in September, we all recognized it as mediocre, at best. We discussed and analyzed it a hundred different ways, and it was still mediocre, at best. Now we're getting early returns about our OOC RPI that confirms - guess what - it's still mediocre, at best. I'm fine with all that and anything else that goes on inside the family.

What I'm not fine with is some guy on the MVC board raining on the parade of a couple of our best posters celebrating the entire conference's early season W-L success by belittling Valpo's OOC SOS and, of course, holding theirs up for display.

For our guys, and you know who you are, don't feel like you need to defend our OOC SOS to anybody outside the family. The fact is the more success we have, the more nervous certain others around the league are going to feel. The last thing they want is to have Valpo waltz in and compete for the conference championship in its first year - or, God forbid, win it. Nit picking our OOC SOS, instead of complimenting our contributions to the conferrence's OOC W-L record, is only Act 1, Scene 1 of many criticisms to come if we continue to win basketball games.

valpotx · November 26, 2017, 06:25:10 PM

If it is an Illinois State fan complaining about our schedule, just bring up the fact that they just to Charleston Southern.

a3uge · November 26, 2017, 08:13:35 PM

Quote from: wh on November 26, 2017, 06:15:32 PM
The minute the OOC schedule was posted in September, we all recognized it as mediocre, at best. We discussed and analyzed it a hundred different ways, and it was still mediocre, at best. Now we're getting early returns about our OOC RPI that confirms - guess what - it's still mediocre, at best. I'm fine with all that and anything else that goes on inside the family.

What I'm not fine with is some guy on the MVC board raining on the parade of a couple of our best posters celebrating the entire conference's early season W-L success by belittling Valpo's OOC SOS and, of course, holding theirs up for display.

For our guys, and you know who you are, don't feel like you need to defend our OOC SOS to anybody outside the family. The fact is the more success we have, the more nervous certain others around the league are going to feel. The last thing they want is to have Valpo waltz in and compete for the conference championship in its first year - or, God forbid, win it. Nit picking our OOC SOS, instead of complimenting our contributions to the conferrence's OOC W-L record, is only Act 1, Scene 1 of many criticisms to come if we continue to win basketball games.

They must not be fans of their RPI increasing from our "easy" scheduling.

talksalot · November 26, 2017, 08:31:06 PM

According to Warren Nolan here are the SOS RPIs

   SOS   RPI
BRADLEY   23   23
ILLINOIS STATE   50   129
NORTHERN IOWA   99   52
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS   115   105
EVANSVILLE   154   73
MISSOURI STATE   167   132
DRAKE   222   135
INDIANA STATE   226   130
VALPO   244   61
LOYOLA   301   91

OR, sorted by RPI
   SOS   RPI
BRADLEY   23   23
NORTHERN IOWA   99   52
VALPO   244   61
EVANSVILLE   154   73
LOYOLA   301   91
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS   115   105
ILLINOIS STATE   50   129
INDIANA STATE   226   130
MISSOURI STATE   167   132
DRAKE   222   135

valpo4life · November 29, 2017, 11:14:54 AM

UPDATE:

RPI: 54 SOS: 218

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-4 (0-0)   104    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     3-3 (0-0)   142    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     2-5 (0-0)   250    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     2-3 (0-0)   273    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-3 (0-0)   189    79-70    W
11-28         Utah St.     4-4 (0-0)   180    72-65    W
12-07     at    Purdue     6-2 (0-0)   52    68-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     2-4 (0-0)   205    72-76 L - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     4-3 (0-0)   147    67-77 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     0-4 (0-0)   342    74-75 L - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-3 (0-0)   168    78-69 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     1-4 (0-0)   235    76-72 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     5-2 (0-0)   132    81-68 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   41    74-75 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     1-2 (0-0)   166    81-68 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     3-1 (0-0)   105    85-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   51    72-77 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     5-2 (0-0)   132    73-76 L - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     6-1 (0-0)   94    80-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   73    80-69 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-3 (0-0)   111    68-74 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     1-4 (0-0)   235    84-64 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     1-2 (0-0)   166    72-76 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     5-1 (0-0)   73    72-77 L - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-3 (0-0)   111    76-66 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     6-1 (0-0)   94    72-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   41    82-66 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     4-2 (0-0)   51    80-68 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     3-1 (0-0)   105    77-71 W - Scouting

18-11 Overall, 11-7 in MVC play

VULB#62 · November 29, 2017, 12:37:37 PM

Sagarin after yesterday: MVC teams plus a few that might be of random interest

9 - Purdue (6-2)
58 - Boise State (5-1) - for Lexus
61 - Butler (5-2)
63 - UNI (4-2)
66 - Northwestern (4-3)
72 - Valpo (6-0)
79 - Vandy (3-4)
92 - Mo State (5-2)
103 - Belmont (4-3)
107 - Loyola (6-1)
111 - NKU (3-2)
114 - IL State (2-3)
122 - Murray (2-1)
138 - E'Ville (5-1)
142 - Oakland (3-3)
146 - Bradley (5-1)
158 - Ball State (2-4)
162 - SIU (1-2)
169 - UWM (3-1)
183 - IN State (1-4)
209 - Drake (3-1)

MVC High: UNI 63, Low: Drake 209
MVC Mean - 128.6
MVC Median - 126

The HL by comparison
Hi:NKU 111, Low: YSU 325
Mean - 224
Median - 235

talksalot · December 01, 2017, 04:51:29 PM

something happened in the past 24 hours.... I'm guessing the RealTimeRPI folks must be Russian hackers who want to influence our December Polling... they are going 5-2.

Date   Opponent   Opp. RPI Rk   Results
11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-5 (0-0)   159    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     3-3 (0-0)   123    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     2-5 (0-0)   245    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     3-3 (0-0)   272    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-4 (0-0)   232    79-70    W
11-28         Utah St.     4-4 (0-0)   178    72-65    W
12-07     at    Purdue     6-2 (0-0)   44    69-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     2-4 (0-0)   202    76-75 W - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     4-3 (0-0)   119    73-79 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     1-4 (0-0)   346    78-74 W - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-4 (0-0)   225    81-70 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   206    79-73 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     5-2 (0-0)   131    84-68 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   42    75-77 L - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     2-2 (0-0)   112    83-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     3-2 (0-0)   184    89-63 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   24    73-79 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     5-2 (0-0)   131    77-76 W - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     6-1 (0-0)   97    82-69 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     5-2 (0-0)   146    84-68 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     2-4 (0-0)   92    75-79 L - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   206    88-65 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     2-2 (0-0)   112    76-77 L - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     5-2 (0-0)   146    78-77 W - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     2-4 (0-0)   92    83-71 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     6-1 (0-0)   97    74-77 L - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     5-1 (0-0)   42    85-69 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   24    83-71 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     3-2 (0-0)   184    82-72 W - Scouting
Current Record: 6-0 (0-0)
GAMER Projected Record: 22-7 (13-5)

The 7 losses, are by 18 to Purdue... and by a total of 22 points for the other 6 losses. I'm feeling the love.

valpo4life · December 06, 2017, 09:36:20 AM

Another update:

RealTimeRPI now projects a 26-3 season with losses at Purdue, Northwestern, and Northern Iowa. That would have to consider at large discussion, you would think.

Obviously that may not be realistic, but hey it's fun to look at!

wh · December 06, 2017, 10:27:50 AM

Quote from: valpo4life on December 06, 2017, 09:36:20 AM
Another update:

RealTimeRPI now projects a 26-3 season with losses at Purdue, Northwestern, and Northern Iowa. That would have to consider at large discussion, you would think.

Obviously that may not be realistic, but hey it's fun to look at!

Per RPIForecast.com, a 26-3 record would yield an RPI of 15. When talking about an at-large bid, a 4th loss and an unknown number of wins in the MVC Tournament have to also be factored in.

These records would all project an RPI under 30:

W/L RPI Chance
28-1   13.0   0.01%
27-2   12.5   0.11%
26-3   14.9   0.46%
25-4   18.4   1.37%
24-5   23.1   4.09%
23-6   29.1   8.81

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

talksalot · December 06, 2017, 05:06:50 PM

Here's the full list of the 26-3 season... just fun to look at...

11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-6 (0-0)   194    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     3-3 (0-0)   132    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     2-7 (0-0)   253    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     4-3 (0-0)   264    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-4 (0-0)   219    79-70    W
11-28         Utah St.     4-5 (0-0)   173    72-65    W
12-07     at    Purdue     8-2 (2-0)   29    67-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     4-4 (0-0)   134    80-78 W - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     5-4 (1-1)   128    74-82 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     2-4 (0-0)   342    82-74 W - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-6 (0-0)   295    86-67 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   172    83-73 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     7-2 (0-0)   60    88-71 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     6-2 (0-0)   103    81-76 W - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     3-2 (0-0)   161    89-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     3-3 (0-0)   180    88-57 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   30    79-81 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     7-2 (0-0)   60    80-79 W - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     7-1 (0-0)   93    88-71 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     6-2 (0-0)   102    88-70 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     3-4 (0-0)   94    83-82 W - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   172    86-60 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     3-2 (0-0)   161    80-77 W - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     6-2 (0-0)   102    80-78 W - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     3-4 (0-0)   94    86-69 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     7-1 (0-0)   93    80-79 W - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     6-2 (0-0)   103    89-68 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   30    87-72 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     3-3 (0-0)   180    85-70 W - Scouting
Current Record: 6-0 (0-0)
GAMER Projected Record: 26-3 (17-1)

They predict Duke at 30-1... and they predict Purdue will... WIN OUT... 29-2... no more losses and a perfect big-10 season.
I wonder what they are putting in their Kool-Aid?

historyman · December 06, 2017, 06:39:32 PM

Quote from: talksalot on December 06, 2017, 05:06:50 PM
Here's the full list of the 26-3 season... just fun to look at...

11-15     at    SIU Edwardsville     1-6 (0-0)   194    94-69    W
11-19         SE Louisiana     3-3 (0-0)   132    83-50    W
11-21         Samford     2-7 (0-0)   253    88-67    W
11-24     vs    Kent St.     4-3 (0-0)   264    77-67    W
11-25     vs    N.C. Wilmington     1-4 (0-0)   219    79-70    W
11-28         Utah St.     4-5 (0-0)   173    72-65    W
12-07     at    Purdue     8-2 (2-0)   29    67-87 L - Scouting
12-09     at    Ball St.     4-4 (0-0)   134    80-78 W - Scouting
12-14     at    Northwestern     5-4 (1-1)   128    74-82 L - Scouting
12-18     at    Santa Clara     2-4 (0-0)   342    82-74 W - Scouting
12-20     at    UC Riverside     1-6 (0-0)   295    86-67 W - Scouting
12-28     at    Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   172    83-73 W - Scouting
12-31         Missouri St.     7-2 (0-0)   60    88-71 W - Scouting
01-03     at    Bradley     6-2 (0-0)   103    81-76 W - Scouting
01-06         Southern Ill.     3-2 (0-0)   161    89-69 W - Scouting
01-10         Drake     3-3 (0-0)   180    88-57 W - Scouting
01-13     at    Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   30    79-81 L - Scouting
01-17     at    Missouri St.     7-2 (0-0)   60    80-79 W - Scouting
01-21         Loyola Chicago     7-1 (0-0)   93    88-71 W - Scouting
01-24         Evansville     6-2 (0-0)   102    88-70 W - Scouting
01-27     at    Illinois St.     3-4 (0-0)   94    83-82 W - Scouting
01-31         Indiana St.     2-4 (0-0)   172    86-60 W - Scouting
02-03     at    Southern Ill.     3-2 (0-0)   161    80-77 W - Scouting
02-07     at    Evansville     6-2 (0-0)   102    80-78 W - Scouting
02-11         Illinois St.     3-4 (0-0)   94    86-69 W - Scouting
02-14     at    Loyola Chicago     7-1 (0-0)   93    80-79 W - Scouting
02-17         Bradley     6-2 (0-0)   103    89-68 W - Scouting
02-20         Northern Iowa     5-2 (0-0)   30    87-72 W - Scouting
02-24     at    Drake     3-3 (0-0)   180    85-70 W - Scouting
Current Record: 6-0 (0-0)
GAMER Projected Record: 26-3 (17-1)

They predict Duke at 30-1... and they predict Purdue will... WIN OUT... 29-2... no more losses and a perfect big-10 season.
I wonder what they are putting in their Kool-Aid?

So there is a chance at 26-3?

vusupporter · December 06, 2017, 09:48:18 PM

Any projection system that predicts you'll go 2-0 when it gives you a 51% chance to win each of two games should not be tracked. Period. End of story.

talksalot · March 05, 2018, 02:12:41 PM

SO...how well did the pre-season RPI predictor work?

GAME PREDICTION     SCORE W/L RESULT
11-15 at SIU Edwardsville 77-69 W - Scouting     94-69    W   RIGHT
11-19 SE Louisiana 83-65 W - Scouting      83-50    W   RIGHT
11-21 Samford 80-69 W - Scouting      88-67    W   RIGHT
11-24 vs Kent St. 74-73 W - Scouting      77-67    W   RIGHT
11-25 vs N.C. Wilmington 73-78 L - Scouting      79-70    W   WRONG
11-28 Utah St. 80-68 W - Scouting      72-65    W   RIGHT
12-07 at Purdue 65-89 L - Scouting      50-80    L   RIGHT
12-09 at Ball St. 71-77 L - Scouting      70-71    L   RIGHT
12-14 at Northwestern 65-80 L - Scouting      50-84    L   RIGHT
12-18 at Santa Clara 73-75 L - Scouting      76-68    W   WRONG
12-20 at UC Riverside 76-70 W - Scouting      60-73    L   WRONG
12-28 at Indiana St. 73-74 L - Scouting      64-73    L   RIGHT
12-31 Missouri St. 80-68 W - Scouting      50-67    L   WRONG
01-03 at Bradley 73-75 L - Scouting      71-80    L   RIGHT
01-06 Southern Ill. 79-70 W - Scouting      83-72    W   RIGHT
01-10 Drake 86-61 W - Scouting      77-60    W   RIGHT
01-13 at Northern Iowa 72-76 L - Scouting      76-81    L   RIGHT
01-17 at Missouri St. 72-76 L - Scouting      57-64    L   RIGHT
01-21 Loyola Chicago 79-69 W - Scouting      54-70    L   WRONG
01-24 Evansville 80-69 W - Scouting      65-75    L   WRONG
01-27 at Illinois St. 64-76 L - Scouting      65-76    L   RIGHT
01-31 Indiana St. 82-66 W - Scouting      69-63    W   RIGHT
02-03 at Southern Ill. 71-78 L - Scouting      59-65    L   RIGHT
02-07 at Evansville 72-77 L - Scouting      59-63    L   RIGHT
02-11 Illinois St. 72-67 W - Scouting      74-58    W   RIGHT
02-14 at Loyola Chicago 71-77 L - Scouting      71-80    L   RIGHT
02-17 Bradley 81-67 W - Scouting      77-64    W   RIGHT
02-20 Northern Iowa 80-68 W - Scouting      63-68    L   WRONG
02-24 at Drake 77-69 W - Scouting      69-64    W   RIGHT

The Computer got 7 games wrong...

The computer expected 5 more wins and 2 more losses

We were supposed to beat:
UCRIVERSIDE
MISSOURI STATE AT HOME
LOYOLA AT HOME
EVANSVILLE AT HOME
NORTHERN IOWA AT HOME

and we were supposed to lose to Santa Clara NC Wilmington but we won.