Valpo vs Dayton

[usc4valpo]

Sorry to say, but 1-28 is not progressing, it is degressing.  However, much of this is because Valpo is not committed to football.  They currently have a program only because it is a university feature to attract students.  Let's be realistic here.

[VULB#62]

Sorry to say, but 1-28 is not progressing, it is degressing.  However, much of this is because Valpo is not committed to football.  They currently have a program only because it is a university feature to attract students.  Let's be realistic here.

That's an issue that the administration must face head-on at the end of this season (not next year or in the next two years because the bleeding is now torrential) at two levels: 

(1)  They must look at themselves:  Has the university adequately invested in the program to allow it to continue?
(2)  They must look at the program:  Has the coaching provided the necessary elements to allow the students who have been recruited to play for VU to compete at a PFL level each Saturday?

[willy]

Some of the coaching changes in the assistants is probably due to lack of real money to pay them what they are worth as "part-time" coaches. I mean when the assistants barely make enough to make it worth leaving a full-time job during the day, why would they want to stay at VU?

So again, is Valpo committed to Div. 1 non-scholarship football? 

What we all fail to realize is that Coach Carlson's job isn't to win football games but rather to keep a full roster of football players that pay full tuition to go to Valpo.

The lack of discipline and level of confusion on the field appears to be a direct reflection of coaching.  This team has had the benefit of Carlson's self-touted superior recruiting and cannot even compete.  I believe there are good athletes on the team, but there are fundamental coaching deficiencies. It appears that this team is no better and maybe even worse than those of the Stacy Adams era.  It's time for MLB to demand some answers.  He should expect more from this coaching staff for the sake of the players. Tired of watching these kids get hung out to dry week after week. 

I certianly hope for the sake of the young men on our football team that the administration has their back!  They deserve respect for all the time and committment (and tuition!!!!) that they have given this university.  I won't allow myself to think that the christian leaders of this university would use these young men for monetary gains.  The boys are giving there heart and soul to the program and its time the administration did the same.

[VULB#62]

Good perspective Willy.  I agree.  It's college; it's about the kids.  If you commit to D-I (scholarship or not), then friggin commit to D-I.

[FloridaFootball]

The boys on this team are playing hurt and giving their all for the cause. Many could have had full rides to D2 schools but chose Valpo. Whether it be for the educational respect that Valpo has or the fact that they thought that they could be a part of turning around a program, which was a recruiting selling point. It is hard to watch. We have high school programs here that can compete with what I saw yesterday. Please dont bash the athletes. They see the benefits that the other sports receive ( a free ride, better housing, etc) and question why they chose Valpo! But, they show up for practice, everyday!   

There are 4 games left. The team wants to win! For you! These are your fellow classmates. I urge you to support them like you do priveleged basketball players. A few football wins would mean more to the school down the road than basketball being bumped in the conference tourney. And they are in school for FREE! 

[FloridaFootball]

And this is coming from someone that received a full athletic scholarship!   Here is to consitent play and progress on both sides of the ball!

[FloridaFootball]

Yes, it is! And its coming from someone that is paying a full tab for their son to play there!

[90]

Funding to FB was definitely increased when Carlson was hired. Recruiting went to all official visits to entice better athletes.  The players receive a nice set of Nike gear including cleats each August.  Official visits are expensive especially when many are flown in.  The recruits and parents receive lodging and meals for their weekend stays.  The administration appears to be committed to improving the program.  There is still obviously a ways to go, but it all can't be done at once.  That said, after three years we should be better than this.  Two full years of Carlson's recruiting strategy has not paid off.  Either the right type of players are still not finding their way to Valpo or this staff is not coaching them to their full potential.  We should not still be hearing about baby steps in his blogs.  The excuses are getting old.  Hopefully a coaching change will be made sooner rather than later if things do not dramatically improve through the final four games.  This program cannot survive another two years of the status quo.  Will be interesting to see how many players leave after this season.  Mass exodus year after year cannot be good for university stats.

[VULB#62]

The boys on this team are playing hurt and giving their all for the cause. Many could have had full rides to D2 schools but chose Valpo. Whether it be for the educational respect that Valpo has or the fact that they thought that they could be a part of turning around a program, which was a recruiting selling point. It is hard to watch. We have high school programs here that can compete with what I saw yesterday. Please dont bash the athletes. They see the benefits that the other sports receive ( a free ride, better housing, etc) and question why they chose Valpo! But, they show up for practice, everyday!

Welcome to the forum Florida.  Thank you for your perspective.  I don't think for a moment that the comments in this string or other FB strings are pointed directly at the kids.  No one questions their heart.  There is talent there.  They do show up.  They work year-round.  All the off-season stuff is probably better organized than what existed three years ago.  The frustration you are witnessing is, IMO, directed at the staff's inability over almost three full seasons to get the best out of these kids on each Saturday.  Is it the "system" that has been debated here?  Is it game time and in-game decisions?  Is it player selection? Is it game preparation?   None of us here will really know.

But we look at other PFL teams and see progress.  Some teams progress farther than others, but VU's progress remains consistently static, if not regressive, and the results are non-competitive despite media releases that talk about the higher level of athleticism of each entering class.

In 2010, with the remnants of the 2009 team, it was the lack of talent.  In 2011 we were too young (but won one game).  This season we are told that we are still young and are not disciplined. We are inconsistent.  Gotta ask: Do the 11 kids on the field at any one time say "today I will be inconsistent" or " on this play I will be undisciplined," or "at this point in the game I will ignore what I was told to do"?  Doubt it.

By now, the Points Against per game should be significantly lower.  VU should still be at least in each game at the half.  The balance that we saw against Drake should be a weekly expectation.  The record may not be a winning record but almost every game should be closer than what it was the year before.  We should at least be able to beat a D-III team and in season three beat a mediocre D-II team at home.

No, Florida, at this point, it's not the kids.

[HC]

A few football wins would mean more to the school down the road than basketball being bumped in the conference tourney.

A football win or two will never mean more then any basketball game at Valpo.  That said, let's hope they can end on a high note and have something to build on during the basketball, umm I mean offseason.

[willy]

To say that Carlson's job isn't to win football games but rather to keep a full roster of football players that pay full tuition to go to Valpo maybe true, but to quote Herm Edwards... "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!" That's a bad attitude to have as an athletic department and university if your main focus isn't to win in football since you are spending lots of money to fund the football program

They may be spending some money on football but not as much as the kids are paying to play.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

They may be spending some money on football but not as much as the kids are paying to play.

An interesting hypothesis.  Let's test it out:

   
• 95 on the roster.
• The university can expect to gross $32,250 (tuition plus general fee).  (R&B not included because not germane.)
• However, the average financial aid package runs about $25k, acc. to VU themselves, and about 90% of students receive aid.
• Let's say that the average financial aid package is half grant, half loan, so VU still nets half of that at the end of the day semester, or $12.5K plus the difference of $7.25K for a total of $19.75K. (Source: http://www.valpo.edu/financialaid/costs/estimatedcosts.php)

So $[10%(95)*32250]+[90%(95)*19750]=306,375+1,688,625=$1.995 million.

Again, for the sake of argument, VU could be said to gross almost $2 million on football players alone.  This is not counting other income for the program, which would primarily consist of ticket sales, I expect, since broadcast rights are not really happening.  In comparison to this figure, however, other income would seem negligible.

Against this, we would have to estimate the cost of coaching staff and equipment and travel and conference fees...half a road trip to San Diego every year, not to mention other places besides.  Here I don't have a feel for what the expenses are, or size of traveling squad, etc.

Of course, all of this is somewhat to assume that VU is in some way obligated to put the $2 million towards football.  Since this isn't Ohio, "playing school" is not an option.  (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8466428/ohio-state-buckeyes-cardale-jones-tweets-classes-pointless).  So a good deal of that money goes to pay for the other things besides football that they consume on campus, primarily faculty salary, not just coaching.  And it should.

Thoughts?

[vu72]

Nice analysis, and in general I agree.  Now, on to expenses. This year is a down year for travel as trips to YSU and Dayton are bus rides (still not free) with two flights to San Diego and Campbell.  These aren't charters I'm guessing and we fly how many? Probably 40.  then there are 9 coaches and an admin person, plus equipment--each player (95?) gets a pair of shoes etc.

On the income side don't forget about the YSU pay day.

[mj]

I believe that room and board also need to be included in the equation, which adds almost $900K in revenue.

[valporun]

mj, while true, don't forget that starting sophomore year, football players in frats can choose to live in the frat house, meaning that the university can lose that income, if they don't own the property. Plus, the impact of any juniors/seniors that live in an off-campus apartment.

[crusadermoe]

Yes, all the "net income" calculations pay off to VU.      They also pay off in the same way to other PFL teams, if not more so because kids "want" to play for a Dayton or Drake and might ante up a bit more net tuition to get that experience.
But why do Butler and those two recruit so much better even though they cannot give "athletic scholarships."   I suspect the first answer primarily is winning tradition. 
But two other reasons are possibilities.   1)  Boring campus culture oriented to music/drama over sports-----even basketball doesn't draw well.    2)  Recruting strategies and leveraging scholarships.     Dayton is bigger and can afford to eat more net tuition by giving larger "general" grants on broader criteria.      3)  Butler and Drake probably have built up good "pipelines" and parent networks in the weathier suburbs of Chicago.  That is how they can draw the lower D-2 caliber guys who are also in the good student/"able to pay" combo.    I don't see Valpo using that focus to pipeline Chicago.   Due to the hour drive they should be able to do so but they are not.       Their roster is a big scramble all over the country.   No ability to build pipelines in that strategy and you rack up costs.

[vu72]

Drake is located in Des Moine, Iowa.  Enough said.  Okay, a little more info.  It's 3.5 hours to Minneapolis and 5.5 hours to Chicago. Des Moine is about 200,000, but, still in Iowa.

[crusadermoe]

Not sure of your point when you say, "Nuff Said" about Drake being in Iowa.    Do you know any facts?

Ther Drake roster has more than 35 players from the Chicago area.     Nearly all come from prosperous suburbs where parents can probably afford a good chunk of the tuition.    When you current those type of kids you are not only building a football team you are building a future alumni base.

I stopped counting at 35.    I don't know how many are on the VU roster, but shouldn't we outrecruit them when we are less than 100 miles away from those suburbs?  Drive there and stop flying all the hell over the country for random kids who don't know each other are will likely keep any ties to VU.

[vu72]

Not sure of your point when you say, "Nuff Said" about Drake being in Iowa.    Do you know any facts?

Ther Drake roster has more than 35 players from the Chicago area.     Nearly all come from prosperous suburbs where parents can probably afford a good chunk of the tuition.    When you current those type of kids you are not only building a football team you are building a future alumni base.

I stopped counting at 35.    I don't know how many are on the VU roster, but shouldn't we outrecruit them when we are less than 100 miles away from those suburbs?  Drive there and stop flying all the hell over the country for random kids who don't know each other are will likely keep any ties to VU.

I counted 30 on our roster from Illinois, many of whom our from Chicago area.  Without taking the time to check on "wealthy" areas, I did note some from areas like Skokie and Evanston.

My comment on Iowa was a bit "tongue in cheek" as you mentioned that a drawback for Valpo might be its "boring campus".  Drakes campus is about a third the size of Valpo's and as for parents be willing to pay a little more to go there, it actually costs about 3,000 a year less according to the US News information.
Perhaps that is part of why they can attract more players, who knows.

And as for building loyal alumni, even though their student body is bigger, their endowment is about 50 million less than ours.  So much for loyalty.

[milanmiracle]

I noticed that Coach Carlson hasn't released his latest Blog recapping the Dayton game. I was looking forward to reading his take on this game and where he thought the issues might have been.

[crusaderjoe]

They may be spending some money on football but not as much as the kids are paying to play.

An interesting hypothesis.  Let's test it out:

   
• 95 on the roster.
• The university can expect to gross $32,250 (tuition plus general fee).  (R&B not included because not germane.)
• However, the average financial aid package runs about $25k, acc. to VU themselves, and about 90% of students receive aid.
• Let's say that the average financial aid package is half grant, half loan, so VU still nets half of that at the end of the day semester, or $12.5K plus the difference of $7.25K for a total of $19.75K. (Source: http://www.valpo.edu/financialaid/costs/estimatedcosts.php)

So $[10%(95)*32250]+[90%(95)*19750]=306,375+1,688,625=$1.995 million.

Again, for the sake of argument, VU could be said to gross almost $2 million on football players alone.  This is not counting other income for the program, which would primarily consist of ticket sales, I expect, since broadcast rights are not really happening.  In comparison to this figure, however, other income would seem negligible.

Against this, we would have to estimate the cost of coaching staff and equipment and travel and conference fees...half a road trip to San Diego every year, not to mention other places besides.  Here I don't have a feel for what the expenses are, or size of traveling squad, etc.

Of course, all of this is somewhat to assume that VU is in some way obligated to put the $2 million towards football.  Since this isn't Ohio, "playing school" is not an option.  (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8466428/ohio-state-buckeyes-cardale-jones-tweets-classes-pointless).  So a good deal of that money goes to pay for the other things besides football that they consume on campus, primarily faculty salary, not just coaching.  And it should.

Thoughts?

IMO, from a revenue standpoint, with the push to increase student enrollment to 6,000 students over the next few years, your analysis may be rendered much less important.  Football, from a tuition revenue standpoint, may become more ancillary as a moneymaker than it is now.  With the exception of basketball, like all other sports at VU football will never garner major revenue to justify its existence other than tuition payments.  It's just not going to happen.  There may (or may not) be some value in maintaining football independent of tuition revenue from a Title IX standpoint but that aspect may be hard to value in real dollars. 

Consider that VU could disband its football program in its entirety, enroll 150 online students who pay full or partially reduced tuition, and most likely would very easily recoup the tuition lost from revenue that was realized from former player tuition dollars.  For the record, I am not advocating the dropping of the program.  I'm just pointing out that a $2M dollar figure, a $2.2M dollar figure with body bag opponents, or even a $3.2M dollar figure with housing may not be as significant as it seems, all things being equal. 

[jetz]

So $[10%(95)*32250]+[90%(95)*19750]=306,375+1,688,625=$1.995 million.


I was told there would be no math...

[VULB#62]

I noticed that Coach Carlson hasn't released his latest Blog recapping the Dayton game. I was looking forward to reading his take on this game and where he thought the issues might have been.

Thursday noon.  Still no Dayton recap.  But what can be said that hasn't been said numerous times before? 

Don't know anything about other injuries going into the game, but noted that Hoffman and Ali-El didn't play. 

Also noted from the box score:
The first five UD drives all ended in scores.
VU had 6 three-and-outs out of 14 possessions (4 in the 1st half); UD had 3 out of 13 (1 in 1st half)
11 VU punts to 3 for UD

[IndyValpo]

Don't know anything about other injuries going into the game, but noted that Hoffman and Ali-El didn't play. 

There are several more injuries or something going on that are never reported. 
Sean Cook a two year starter at OT was mentioned as hurt pre-season, no update
Bryce Dempsey played in the first 2 games made 8 tackles and has never been heard from again
Alex Green played in the first 5 made 15 tackles, same disappearance
Ryan Mundy, the opposite, a starter late last season he did not play in the first 5, nothing mentioned, now he does

It is really hard to follow...