Georgia Southern at Valpo - 11/9/12

[valpotx]

I am surprised that no one started this yet, so close to game day.  I see us winning fairly comfortably at home against Georgia Southern, regardless of their improvement.  It won't be enough to overcome our own improvement, but I look forward to the Eagles fan from last year coming on here and trying to prove us wrong, since they are so much better than us  .

Valpo 79
Georgia Southern 64

[valpopal]

I'm not sure how reliable they could be this early in the season, but the Vegas lines seem to have Valpo favored by 12 points, which matches my pick:

Valpo 78
Georgia Southern 66

[vu72]

These guys are no pushover.  They were 15-15 last year and I read somewhere that one of their guys was included in the Mid-major guys you've never heard of, or some such report.  They aren't real big (6'7") and only two seniors.  The Southern Coference website didn't seem to have any poll information on projected finish.

I think it will be a good game against a small athletic team.  Probably a good chance to continue to set the lineup and get some additional kinks worked out.  Valpo by 12 seems about right.

[govalpogo]

I believe that GSU will put a strong fight early, taking a lead or two in the first half, but a deep Valpo bench will outlast them in the second. They'll hit a couple of three's at the end to make it seem closer.

Georgia Southern University: 70
Valparaiso University:            80   

[zvillehaze]

The Southern Coference website didn't seem to have any poll information on projected finish.

Georgia Southern picked 3rd in South Division of SoCon.

http://www.soconsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&ATCLID=205719327

[crusadermoe]

Nice to move on from football at last.
I think that a very experienced team at home takes charge at the start and wins going away.   86 to 65.   
I wonder if Valpo's average roster age is among the top ten in the country?   Nearly all are seniors or transfer soph/juniors. 

[vu72]

The Southern Coference website didn't seem to have any poll information on projected finish.

Georgia Southern picked 3rd in South Division of SoCon.

http://www.soconsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&ATCLID=205719327

Thanks haze for finding that.  I think its a little deceptive.  First, the two teams picked ahead of them are Davidson and College of Charleston, two typically very good mid-major squads. The ten all conference team members include 5 from these two schools.  One, however, is from Georgia Southern.  With the names ahead of them I think its more akin to being picked third in the Horizon.  When you see whose ahead of the third place team you realize that they can still be very good.

[covufan]

Valpo  77
Ga S.  63

[mp91]

I agree, Valpo should come away with the win...

But Georgia Southern has a potential second-round NBA draft pick in Eric Ferguson, this kid is legit.  His YouTube videos are quite impressive and he is starting to get a lot of attention for this year's draft....  Even Coach Drew had mentioned him as a likely NBA prospect

[ChadWC]

We, Georgia Southern, are the darkhorse team for the SoCon...at least thats what has been written.  That said, those who wrote it probably figured we would have Jelani Hewitt the entire season.  He's academically ineligible for the fall semester of games.  Hes one of our best defenders and hes our best three point shooter.  Jelani can light it up from deep when hes hot.  Losing him hurts us badly in these early games.

However, the transfer of MEAC POTY C.J. Reed should help lessen the scoring blow of losing Hewitt.  Reed was a scoring machine at Bethune Cookman.  That said as well, we have no idea how he will fit into our team.  We also signed a pair of 6'5 athletic freshman guards who were both Rivals.com 3 star guys who everyone is excited about.  They could help in filling the role of Hewitt as well.  We also have a JUCO transfer in Brian Holmes who is expected to play some point guard and he could be a steadying presence off the bench with his experience and all around game ability.  Jesse Pernell had a great freshman year and hes a great defensive player.  Very bring future for the kid.  Tre Bussey is our 6th man so to speak and he will probably be thrust into a starting role with Hewitt out.

The front court is all about Eric Ferguson.  Hes generally the most talented and athletic player on the court against any team we play.  He has a tendency to get into foul trouble but when you get him on the court for 25 plus minutes, hes a force to deal with in the paint.  Cam Baskerville is the lone senior and last year, he was a guy who would give you 6 to 10 points and a good number of rebounds...or he would turn it over repeatedly and struggle to contribute in any sort of positive way.  He played better near the end of the season and we're hoping that he continues this into his senior year.  A lot of fans, and I'm sure the coaches, are counting on Kam Dunnican to be our 5 man.  Hes our tallest player (after we kicked our other 6'8 sophomore off the team over the summer) and he is more of a rebounder and shotblocker than a scorer but thats what we need with the way we run our offense. 

That sounds like a bunch of rambling on from my perspective but we as Eagle fans have no idea what to expect.  We will be pretty darn good once we get Hewitt back, but until then, we will just all be waiting and hoping that we can pull it together and get off to a good start.

If I had to guess, I'd probably say our starting 5 will look something like:

Reed
Bussey
Pernell/Holmes
Ferguson
Dunnican/Baskerville

If we win the game, it will be because we caused turnovers which we are good at, and didn't turn the basketball over....which was something that was an extreme stat as to whether we won or lost last year.  If we lose, it will be because of turnovers and 4 new guys in the backcourt learning to play together.  We have not played an exhibition game to my knowledge.

[HC]

Thanks for the breakdown Chad.  The only way Valpo loses is if Buggs gets into foul trouble and our other pg options turn it over.  Valpo also will need to shoot poorly from outside for Georgia to have a chance. 

Valpo 73
GS    62

[ChadWC]

Thats pretty easy to say.   I'm not expecting a win without Hewitt, but we are physically still one of the most talented mid major teams you'll play.  If Reed and Ferguson are hot, you'll get all you want.

[vu72]

Chad,

Thanks for the recap--well done! Question:  how do you think you are better than last year? Net gains, net losses?  We know we are significantly better than last year and, we did win at your place last year.

I expect a very good game and hope you win your conference!

[ChadWC]

Last year, we got off to a bad start.  Willie Powers returned from an ACL injury and missed junior season and it took him about ten games to get back into real gameshape.  We also were a very young team.  It took us a while to really get things sorted out and learn to win away from Hanner where we only lost twice all of last year.  We were a pretty good team in mid major terms at the end of last season but still had the flaw of being too turnover prone.

This year, we as a fanbase expect to improve on the 15-15 mark.  But without Jelani Hewitt who is our best returning guard, how much improvement we will see early on is hard to say.  I honestly have no idea what to tell you guys.  Reed is very good but how he fits in is yet to be seen.  I can't even tell you where he will play but if I had to guess, I'd say point guard.  If we had a backcourt of Reed and Hewitt from day 1, we'd be a dangerous team.  I think it will take us a few games to get going, and we will start out a little slower than most of our fanbase would like...but by the time conference play rolls around and Hewitt hopefully returns, we will probably be a 16-20 win team.  I expect us to beat the lower tier teams of the SoCon, something we struggled to do on the road last year, beat some of the better teams like UNCG and CofC, and win some of our non conference, early season games...and finish 2nd on our side of the conference behind Davidson.

If Reed acclimates quick, Ferguson really breaks out, and one of our freshman guards contributes in a big way early, we could have the best Eagle basketball team since 2006 which is a team that won the SoCon regular season title.  Davidson is going to be a top 25 type team this year.  I'm not sure we are good enough to challenge them just yet.

[wh]

NWI Times game day article

Broekhoff looking past disappointments to final VU season

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/broekhoff-looking-past-disappointments-to-final-vu-season/article_0eb8285a-fddc-5bf5-a574-4f66cad8f03d.html

[wh]

Statesboro (GA) Herald game day story

High hoops hopes

http://www.statesboroherald.com/section/291/article/45529/

[wh]

GSU fans message board:

http://www.gsufans.com/tsc/showthread.php?22147-MBB-Eagles-at-Valpo

[wh]

Post Tribune game day story

VU men eager to start promising season

http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/colleges/16253836-419/vu-men-eager-to-start-promising-season.html

[valpotx]

NWI Times game day article

Broekhoff looking past disappointments to final VU season

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/broekhoff-looking-past-disappointments-to-final-vu-season/article_0eb8285a-fddc-5bf5-a574-4f66cad8f03d.html

He needs to correct the last time we were in the NCAA tourney, as it was my last year of 2003-2004, not 2002.

[HC]

Opening day is finally here!  I'm all giddy with excitement and I really hope that the ladies' game goes a little long and the men's game gets a later start.  My son has a game of his own from 7-8.  So a late start would be greatly appreciated!
Go Valpo!

[crusaderjoe]

In following the program for over 20 years, I don't think I have ever had such high hopes and expectations for a VU basketball team as I do with this one.

VU by 13.
 

[wh]

Today's spread is 14 points:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/11/09/2012-11-09_georgia-southern_vs_valparaiso/spread

The biggest spread we had in any game in which we were favored last year was 12.5.  Expectations are high.

[cornonthe]

Valparaiso 94
Georgia Southern 87

[covufan]

NWI Times game day article

Broekhoff looking past disappointments to final VU season

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/broekhoff-looking-past-disappointments-to-final-vu-season/article_0eb8285a-fddc-5bf5-a574-4f66cad8f03d.html

He needs to correct the last time we were in the NCAA tourney, as it was my last year of 2003-2004, not 2002.

Looks like someone was listening, or the nwitimes heard it from elsewhere. 

[zvillehaze]

NWI Times game day article

Broekhoff looking past disappointments to final VU season

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/broekhoff-looking-past-disappointments-to-final-vu-season/article_0eb8285a-fddc-5bf5-a574-4f66cad8f03d.html

He needs to correct the last time we were in the NCAA tourney, as it was my last year of 2003-2004, not 2002.

Looks like someone was listening, or the nwitimes heard it from elsewhere. 

The body of the story says "2004" (and did this morning), but the sidebar says "2002".  In either case, it's been a long time.