Valpo in the Polls (and the HL too)

[agibson]

Perhaps you'll allow me the indulgence of starting a thread for the polls, as in previous seasons.

I'm feeling optimistic, so perhaps we'll keep it in the Valpo forum this year?  But, we can still mention the other teams.

[agibson]

The opening Mid-Major Top 25 has Valpo at #21, as mentioned elsewhere.

This must have been mentioned elsewhere too, Valpo picking up three votes in the AP poll.  Good for... 47th.

Detroit effectively #27 in the Mid-Major poll.  Cleveland State down at... #57.  With a couple of Summit teams ahead of them (OK - SDSU's ahead of us too).

Butler's #31 in the AP Poll, and picking up votes in the Coaches' poll as well.

http://www.collegeinsider.com/new/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

From November 5

                                Record Points Previous
1.    Creighton (25)    0-0    764    -    Missouri Valley
2.    Gonzaga (4)    0-0    709    -    West Coast
3.    Murray State (2)    0-0    685    -    Ohio Valley
4.    Drexel    0-0    619    -    Colonial
5.    Ohio    0-0    569    -    Mid-American
6.    Lehigh    0-0    506    -    Patriot
7.    Davidson    0-0    502    -    Southern
8.    Illinois State    0-0    416    -    Missouri Valley
9.    Belmont    0-0    415    -    Ohio Valley
10.    Middle Tennessee    0-0    409    -    Sun Belt
11.    BYU    0-0    396    -    West Coast
12.    South Dakota State    0-0    338    -    Summit
13.    St. Mary's    0-0    326    -    West Coast
14.    Mercer    0-0    287    -    Atlantic Sun
15.    Akron    0-0    277    -    Mid-American
16.    Bucknell    0-0    266    -    Patriot
17.    Northern Iowa    0-0    241    -    Missouri Valley
18.    Utah State    0-0    234    -    WAC
19.    North Texas    0-0    188    -    Sun Belt
20.    Wichita State    0-0    185    -    Missouri Valley
21.    Valparaiso    0-0    184    -    Horizon
22.    Iona    0-0    182    -    Metro Atlantic
23.    Fairfield    0-0    173    -    Metro Atlantic
24.    Long Beach State    0-0    156    -    Big West
25.    New Mexico State    0-0    151    -    WAC


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Loyola MD 124, Detroit 117, Oral Roberts 99, Montana 76, George Mason 34, USC Upstate 30, Old Dominion 29, Tennessee State 29, College of Charleston 25, Denver 23, LIU-Brooklyn 22, Manhattan 20, Weber State 20, Harvard 19, Wagner 18, Princeton 17, UT-Arlington 17, Delaware 16, Elon 16, Oakland 16, Savannah State 16, South Alabama 14, Siena 12, Robert Morris 10, UTSA 10, Idaho 9, UNC Greensboro 8, Santa Clara  6, Cal State Fullerton 5, Kent State 4, UNC-Asheville 4, Cleveland State 3, Evansville 3, Loyola Marymount 3, Chattanooga 2, Charleston Southern 2, Utah Valley 2, Jackson State 1, Norfolk State 1, North Dakota 1, San Diego 1, Stephen F. Austin 1, Stony Brook 1, UC Irvine 1 .


VOTING PANEL: Casey Alexander (Stetson), Murry Bartow (East Tennessee State), Randy Bennett (St. Mary's), Horace Broadnax (Savannah State), Milan Brown (Holy Cross), Will Brown (Albany), Kermit Davis (Middle Tennessee), Billy Donlon (Wright State), Bruiser Flint (Drexel), James Fox (Davidson), Tyler Geving (Portland State), Mike Gillian (Longwood), Seth Greenberg (ESPN), Steve Hawkins (Western Michigan), Willie Hayes (Alabama A&M), B.J. Hill (Northern Colorado), Dick Hunsaker (Utah Valley), James Jones (Yale), Greg Kampe (Oakland), Danny Kaspar (Stephen F. Austin), Kerry Keating (Santa Clara), Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo), Gregg Marshall (Wichita State), Greg McDermott (Creighton), Tom Moore (Quinnipiac), Jeff Neubauer (Eastern Kentucky), Jimmy Patsos (Loyola MD), Buzz Peterson (UNC-Wilmington), John Shulman (Chattanooga), Don Verlin (Idaho), Ron Verlin (Pacific).

[valpopal]

Enjoy it while you can! Horizon League ranked #1 conference in RPI: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

[agibson]

Fun!  I guess that was before Milwaukee lost to South Carolina today.

[valpopal]

On the other hand, RPI doesn't have an enormous amount of confidence in Valpo. It projects the team will achieve an overall record of 15-13 and 10-6 in the conference: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html

[HC]

lucky for us they have to play the games out

[agibson]

On the other hand, RPI doesn't have an enormous amount of confidence in Valpo. It projects the team will achieve an overall record of 15-13 and 10-6 in the conference: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html

Of course, that's with losses to "top-100" RPI teams like Kent State, Cleveland State, Wright State, and Oakland!  These computerized predictions, especially, can't mean much after one (or at best a few) game.

[agibson]

That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th.  In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes.  Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.

[wh]

That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th.  In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes.  Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.

Dead man walking.

[agibson]

That AP Preseason poll was, I believe, from October 26th.  In today's week 1 poll we didn't receive any votes.  Butler hangs in at #32 with a 74-59 win over Elon.

Dead man walking.

They're already out of the Coaches' Poll.

[FWalum]

Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough.  Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close).  What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?

[agibson]

Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough.  Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close).  What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?

I suppose the pre-season poll, in particular, is pretty ephemeral.  More about people's imaginations of what various teams could accomplish.

The week 1 result probably has nothing to do with our performance.  It _might_ have something to do with KVW's or Capo's injuries.  More likely it's just that whatever caught the imagination of a writer or three to put us at #23-#25 on their ballot has faded, or some glint from another team replaced it.

Now that the season's started, these things do begin to seem quite mechanical.  They should be more predictable from here - though I don't know how e.g. Valpo would break in.  Would a Nebrasksa win be enough, or would they need an N game unbeaten streak?

[zvillehaze]

Gee, I guess we should have kept our foot on the gas in our game. It appears that a 31 point win against a team picked third in their conference was not impressive enough.  Perhaps if we had won by 50 (I think we could have come close).  What new team came into the poll with a more impressive win?

I suppose the pre-season poll, in particular, is pretty ephemeral.  More about people's imaginations of what various teams could accomplish.

The week 1 result probably has nothing to do with our performance.  It _might_ have something to do with KVW's or Capo's injuries.  More likely it's just that whatever caught the imagination of a writer or three to put us at #23-#25 on their ballot has faded, or some glint from another team replaced it.

Now that the season's started, these things do begin to seem quite mechanical.  They should be more predictable from here - though I don't know how e.g. Valpo would break in.  Would a Nebrasksa win be enough, or would they need an N game unbeaten streak?

If anyone really cares, Elton Alexander from Cleveland was the guy who voted for Valpo in the week 1 poll.  He dropped Valpo, Drexel, Murray State, Saint Louis and Florida State from his ballot this week in favor of Michigan, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn and San Diego State.

http://www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,49/p_1,49/r,V/r_1,V/s,22/s_1,22/t1,0/t1_1,0/t2,0/t2_1,0/v,162/v_1,162/w,2/w_1,2/

FWIW, Alexander was also the only guy who didn't have Cody Zeller on his pre-season All-America ballot.

[agibson]

Fascinating!  What's his beat?  Does he cover CSU?  That ballot did have a bunch of extremes.  Including the only vote/votes for Valpo.

Is that info all now public, every week?  I had a vague notion that one of the big polls would release e.g. one week's ballots, after the season.  But that, for the most part, they were confidential.

Or is this a tabulation of info volunteered by the voters?

[agibson]

Valpo's unchanged in the Nov 12 Mid-major poll.  Which has oddities of its own.  I'll come back and annotate and comment later.

1.    Creighton (25)    1-0    764    1    Missouri Valley
2.    Gonzaga (4)    1-0    709    2    West Coast
3.    Murray State (2)    1-0    689    3    Ohio Valley
4.    Ohio    1-0    623    5    Mid-American
5.    Drexel    0-1    561    4    Colonial
6.    Lehigh    0-1    503    6    Patriot
7.    Davidson    1-0    501    7    Southern
8.    Illinois State    0-0    420    8    Missouri Valley
9.    Belmont    1-0    418    9    Ohio Valley
10.    Middle Tennessee    1-0    411    10    Sun Belt
11.    BYU    1-0    402    11    West Coast
12.    South Dakota State    0-1    334    12    Summit
13.    St. Mary's    1-0    333    13    West Coast
14.    Mercer    1-0    286    14    Atlantic Sun
15.    Bucknell    1-0    281    16    Patriot
16.    Akron    0-1    258    15    Mid-American
17.    Northern Iowa    1-0    244    17    Missouri Valley
18.    Utah State    1-0    231    18    WAC
19.    Wichita State    1-0    184    20    Missouri Valley
20.    North Texas    0-1    180    19    Sun Belt
21.    Valparaiso    1-0    178    21    Horizon
22.    Iona    1-0    175    22    Metro Atlantic
23.    Fairfield    1-0    168    23    Metro Atlantic
24.    South Alabama    1-0    136    NR    Sun Belt
25.    Long Beach State    1-0    122    24    Big West


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: George Mason 117, Detroit 115, Kent State 106, New Mexico State 61, Oral Roberts 60, Montana 56, Loyola MD 52, College of Charleston 51, USC Upstate 26, Tennessee State 25, Denver 22, Harvard 21,Manhattan 21, Savannah State 20, Weber State 20, Cleveland State 19, Elon 16, Norfolk State 16, Delaware 15, UT-Arlington 14, Coastal Carolina 12, LIU-Brooklyn 12, Wagner 12, Princeton 11, Santa Clara  6, Texas State 6, Cal State Fullerton 5, Saint Peter's 5, Idaho 4, Robert Morris 4, UTSA 3, UC Irvine 2, Chattanooga 2, Loyola Marymount 2, Utah Valley 2, Campbell 1 Jackson State 1, North Dakota 1, Sacred Heart 1, San Diego 1, Stephen F. Austin 1, Stony Brook 1 .

[vuweathernerd]

i'm amused by the four 0-1 teams ranked ahead of us in the poll, as well as the 0-0 illinois state redbirds... what gives?

[valporun]

Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.

[VULB#62]

Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.

Actually 5.

[vuweathernerd]

Not sure about the four 0-1 teams, but Illinois State played last night, so their first game came after the poll. They went to 1-0, so they are even with us, for now.

Actually 5.

glad somebody can count. because apparently i can't. 

[agibson]

So, we're going to lose out on the easy "X-0 record votes".  Will a close loss against a lousy BCS team be overlooked compared to a hard fought win against an almost-top 25 midmajor?

I suspect we stay in the top 25, but don't gain ground.  We'll see.

[agibson]

The voters seem to still not be taking much account of the actual games played.  A few teams moved a little, but lots of losses didn't do much to the rankings.

South Alabama passed us up on the strength of their win against the ACC's Florida St.

Youngstown State and Wright State pick up some votes.

Butler's fallen out of the national polls completely.

1.    Creighton (26)    3-0    769    1    Missouri Valley
2.    Gonzaga (4)    3-0    744    2    West Coast
3.    Ohio    3-0    665    4    Mid-American
4.    Murray State (1)    3-1    636    3    Ohio Valley
5.    Belmont    3-0    608    9    Ohio Valley
6.    Illinois State    3-0    581    8    Missouri Valley
7.    Bucknell    5-0    556    15    Patriot
8.    Lehigh    1-2    512    6    Patriot
9.    Northern Iowa    3-0    499    17    Missouri Valley
10.    St. Mary's    3-0    430    13    West Coast
11.    Middle Tennessee    2-1    414    10    Sun Belt
11.    Wichita State    4-0    414    19    Missouri Valley
13.    BYU    2-2    328    11    West Coast
14.    South Dakota State    3-2    283    12    Summit
15.    Drexel    1-2    265    5    Colonial
16.    Davidson    1-2    229    7    Southern
17.    South Alabama    2-0    224    24    Sun Belt
18.    Akron    3-2    180    16    Mid-American
19.    Mercer    2-3    179    14    Atlantic Sun
20.    Utah State    2-1    174    18    WAC
21.    North Texas    2-2    162    20    Sun Belt
22.    Valparaiso    3-1    132    21    Horizon
23.    Cal State Northridge    6-0    127    NR    Big West
24.    Iona    2-1    125    22    Metro Atlantic
25.    Fairfield    2-1    121    23    Metro Atlantic


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Long Beach State 105, Kent State 98, Detroit 75, Loyola MD 61, Hawaii 56, George Mason 53, Youngstown State 37, Oakland 30, Albany 21, Delaware 18, Tennessee Tech 17, Stephen F Austin 16, Cleveland State 14, Bradley 12, Harvard 12, UC Irvine 12, Loyola Marymount 11, Santa Clara 9, Northwestern State 9, Oral Roberts 8, William & Mary 8, Wright State 7, Ball State 6, Denver 5, Western Michigan 5, Princeton 4, Stony Brook 3, UTSA 3, Eastern Kentucky 1, UT Arlington 1, Elon  1.

[agibson]

The conference mix just seems odd, too.

4 MVC teams ahead of us, OK, maybe.

A couple of WCC teams, OK.

But three from the _Sun Belt_?  Really?

Two each from the Ohio Valley and patriot?

[agibson]

Are we far enough into the season for computer rankings to mean anything?  Probably not, but shall we have a look anyway?

realtimerpi.com has the Horizon League a dismal 22nd.  Valpo's leading the pack at 109, UIC 125, YSU 143,  CSU 152 and WSU 196 are all above 0.500 and above 200 RPI.  Detroit's the tail at 317.

kenpom.com, with Pomeroy's own computer ranking, has Valpo at 95, CSU 107, YSU 123, Detroit 124, UWGB 143, WSU 176.  (Loyola the tail at 250).

Whelliston's Basketball State (bbstate.com) computer ranking has WSU at 29 among "small conference" schools (70 overall), Valpo 32/76, UIC 43/97, YSU 59/123, Detroit 90/175, CSU 95/180, UWM 113/198, Loyola the tail (181/275).  Three of the top 5 "small conference" schools are A10, with Butler at 4/17.

So, quite some diversity.

[FWalum]

Are we far enough into the season for computer rankings to mean anything?  Probably not, but shall we have a look anyway?

realtimerpi.com has the Horizon League a dismal 22nd.  Valpo's leading the pack at 109, UIC 125, YSU 143,  CSU 152 and WSU 196 are all above 0.500 and above 200 RPI.  Detroit's the tail at 317.

kenpom.com, with Pomeroy's own computer ranking, has Valpo at 95, CSU 107, YSU 123, Detroit 124, UWGB 143, WSU 176.  (Loyola the tail at 250).

Whelliston's Basketball State (bbstate.com) computer ranking has WSU at 29 among "small conference" schools (70 overall), Valpo 32/76, UIC 43/97, YSU 59/123, Detroit 90/175, CSU 95/180, UWM 113/198, Loyola the tail (181/275).  Three of the top 5 "small conference" schools are A10, with Butler at 4/17.

So, quite some diversity.

I really have a problem with the realtimerpi calculations.  At this stage of the game the  rankings of these teams is way too biased to their starting rpi and his method of determining that initial rpi might be scientific but in MHO not very accurate.  Things get much more accurate for the realtimerpi later in the season.

[agibson]

I really have a problem with the realtimerpi calculations.  At this stage of the game the  rankings of these teams is way too biased to their starting rpi and his method of determining that initial rpi might be scientific but in MHO not very accurate.  Things get much more accurate for the realtimerpi later in the season.

I don't think I follow.  I only quoted the straight RPI from realtimerpi.  I guess they have other features: their power ratings, predictions, maybe others.

Their RPI calculation is just a straight RPI calculation, right?  No magic initial information?  For Valpo, at least, the number matches http://warrennolan.com/.

There's another computer ranking, I suppose, perhaps worth including.  In the Nolan Power Index Wright State is 46, YSU 83, Valpo 92, with Detroit bringing up the tail at 281.  The Horizon's in 13th place overall.

So, yeah, the computer rankings are working on pretty limited information.  The RPI is too, but at least the numerical of the RPI shouldn't be in dispute, right?