Valpo in the Polls (and the HL too)

[EddieCabot]

For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.

Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html   Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14.  Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.

[/b]

Yeah, if you believe these sources.  Right now in the Sagarin's Valpo is ranked 80th in the 12th highest ranked conference out of 32.  We are currently ranked higher than 14 conference leaders and very slightly behind Belmont and SF Austen.  Those are certainly two we want to get beat in their tourneys. So if my math is right (and I'm still not sure about how the added teams figure into this)  there needs to be 12 teams ranked worse than us for us to get a 13 and 16 to get a 12. With a couple of upsets, and in conferences where the current leader wouldn't get an at-large bid, we have a shot at a 12 (probably need to win out) but a 13 seems fairly safe. Remember, the committee continues to say that rpi isn't the only factor, that's why I think Sagarin's is a better tool.  We'll find out.

I think I saw this posted somewhere else, but there will be six #16 seeds, so Valpo needs to be better than 14 (6+4+4) teams to be a 13 seed and better than 18 to get a 12 seed.  As you point out, RPI is only one of the tools used.  I believe most of the mock brackets are based upon where teams stand today, so Valpo certainly has the opportunity to improve their position by continuing to win games. I may be wrong, but I believe Sagarin is a forward looking "predictive" tool, so it may be more representative of how things will look when the season ends.

[ValpoHoops]

We don't need to worry about "rooting" for teams to lose conference games. We need to win the HL Tournament (that would be step 1) and then have a bunch of upsets in the conference tournament...aka, #1 seeds losing.

[agibson]

I suppose there are two sides to the coin.

You can take the best team from a bad conference and tarnish their representation.  So, let them pick up a couple of bad conference losses and bruise their RPI.  Then, when they make it into the tournament, they'll earn a lower seed.

Or, let the current front-runner run away with the regular season (so long as they have no chance at an at-large).  Then, let them get upset in the conference tournament.

Either way can work, maybe depending on the conference and teams in question.

[agibson]

Wins on the road sure help your RPI.  Valpo just edges Detroit, moving ahead of them for the first time in a while.  Valpo 73, Detroit 74, UIC 107.. UMW 312. 

[bbtds]

For the Bracket watchers, Valpo still a #14 at ESPN and CBSSports and up to #13 at NBCSports and CNNSI.

Here's one that hasn't been referenced before ... http://www.bustingthebracket.com/2013/02/bracket-breakdown_11.html   Shows Valpo as the most highly rated #14.  Also interesting because it's easy to see the teams currently rated ahead on the #13 and #12 lines, so you know who Valpo needs to pass to get a higher seed.

It sure would make for an interesting discussion at one of the Drew Family get-togethers if Valpo beat out the highest positioned #12.  And if the two teams ever met in the big dance it would be the Super Bowl of college basketball match-ups. Hopefully the lights won't go out at the venue.

[justducky]

A quick look at today's numbers shows us at W.N.-70, Sag-68, K.P-69, and R-time 73. That might be the tightest range of any team in div-1 basketball, so I guess it must be pretty accurate. In contrast our 2010-11 team was maybe 43'rd at this time with its lowest number while its highest may have been Sag at something like 85 or 90 and might have been even higher.

Also of interest is that RealTime now has us as their favorite to win in each of our last 5 games, albeit by only 1 point at both Loyola and Green Bay. This is interesting because at the time of the Youngstown S. loss they had us pegged at 11 -5 in HL play. Just goes to show that when you start to win they predict you to win and if you start to lose they can see no end to it. So for any of their methodologies are late season surge teams accurately measured?

[agibson]

A quick look at today's numbers shows us at W.N.-70, Sag-68, K.P-69, and R-time 73. That might be the tightest range of any team in div-1 basketball, so I guess it must be pretty accurate. In contrast our 2010-11 team was maybe 43'rd at this time with its lowest number while its highest may have been Sag at something like 85 or 90 and might have been even higher.

Interesting! 

bbstate.com is still an outlier.  It turns out to be rather generous to a bunch of small conference schools.  They've got Stephen T. Austin, LA Tech, MTSU, Akron, St. Mary's, and Belmont all in the top 25 (and Gonzaga too, but Butler's at 27 as the best of the A10).  Anyhow, bbstate.com has Valpo at #43.

[vu72]

I think the numbers are starting to converge.  Here are the Sagarins and BPI (ESPN's deal).  Both are very similar.  The numbers I'm reporting are for Valpo and conference LEADERS (highest ranked in Sagarin's), that are similar or worse than Valpo. Thus, if they hold true--and I'm thinking with Valpo running the table--in the Sagain's we are better than 16 conference leaders and in the BPI better than 13 but in a virtual dead heat with two others.  Very interesting to me in that many are almost identical while others are off some.

[b]School   [/b]                               Sagarin[/ BPI           
Valpo                                                             68                          69
SF Austen                                                       69                          68
Denver                                                           73                          66
Bucknell                                                         80                          59
Davidson                                                        81                          82
South Dakota State                                          99                         121
Princeton                                                       107                         109
Weber State                                                   109                          88
Stoney Brooke                                                 110                         101
Iona                                                               113                        106
George Mason                                                  118                        119
Long Beach State                                             124                         161
Mercer                                                             131                        141
Robert Morris                                                   161                         162
NC Asheville                                                    167                         152
NC Central                                                       176                         137
Texas Southern                                                206                          192

So, according to Sagarin, all things considered, we could be a 12.  By BPI, a 13, very close to a 12.  We need to keep winning anf get some help in conference tourneys.
   

[SanityLost17]

I think the numbers are starting to converge.  Here are the Sagarins and BPI (ESPN's deal).  Both are very similar.  The numbers I'm reporting are for Valpo and conference LEADERS (highest ranked in Sagarin's), that are similar or worse than Valpo. Thus, if they hold true--and I'm thinking with Valpo running the table--in the Sagain's we are better than 16 conference leaders and in the BPI better than 13 but in a virtual dead heat with two others.  Very interesting to me in that many are almost identical while others are off some.

[b]School   [/b]                               Sagarin[/ BPI           
Valpo                                                             68                          69
SF Austen                                                       69                          68
Denver                                                           73                          66
Bucknell                                                         80                          59
Davidson                                                        81                          82
South Dakota State                                          99                         121
Princeton                                                       107                         109
Weber State                                                   109                          88
Stoney Brooke                                                 110                         101
Iona                                                               113                        106
George Mason                                                  118                        119
Long Beach State                                             124                         161
Mercer                                                             131                        141
Robert Morris                                                   161                         162
NC Asheville                                                    167                         152
NC Central                                                       176                         137
Texas Southern                                                206                          192

So, according to Sagarin, all things considered, we could be a 12.  By BPI, a 13, very close to a 12.  We need to keep winning anf get some help in conference tourneys.

I think it would be pretty accurate to say the following:  (all assuming we win the conference tourney)   
If we win out...  We are a 12 
If we lose 1... We are a 13 
If we lose 2... We are a 14 

I think this is how it will play out...  Anybody have a different opinion?   

[agibson]

I won't be happy about it, and haven't run any numbers, but a 14 won't shock me even if we win out. 

If we lose a game or two?  I don't exclude a 15.

But, again, I haven't run the numbers. 

[valpotx]

I believe someone mentioned that we would have an RPI of around 53 if we win out...there is no way that we get a 14 with that RPI, compared to these other conferences.  I say that a 13 seed is realistic in this scenario

[vuweathernerd]

Apparently loonardi bumped us to a 13 in his bracketology while the guy at CBS still has us as a 14 and playing butler in the first round

[agibson]

I believe someone mentioned that we would have an RPI of around 53 if we win out...there is no way that we get a 14 with that RPI, compared to these other conferences.  I say that a 13 seed is realistic in this scenario

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

53 matches RPI Forecast's latest predicted RPI, assuming we win out.  The one loss case is harder - I'm not sure that site lets you separate the "lose in the final" vs. "lose one in the regular season and win the tournament" cases - they give different RPI's at least if the loss comes on the road.  But, the weighted average of those two cases seems to be RPI 62.

Reminding myself of our tournament history, we've had every seed from 12 to 16.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valparaiso_Crusaders_men%27s_basketball#NCAA_tournament

[chef]

One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.

[SanityLost17]

Winning out would mean we won 17 of our last 18.  It would mean 3 more wins against top 100 RPI teams.  (Detroit, EKU, and most likely Detroit again)  Add in a couple low RPI upsets of bubble teams in conference tournaments and perhaps a late season collapse or two from some major conference bubble teams.  I would like to think that would be enough for a 12.  However, I can see why they wouldn't give us one.  (coughNebraskaOaklandLoyolacoughcough)     

Now, I really don't think we are going to win out.  I think we will lose 1 more.  So it probably doesn't matter.   

[agibson]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

53 matches RPI Forecast's latest predicted RPI, assuming we win out.  The one loss case is harder - I'm not sure that site lets you separate the "lose in the final" vs. "lose one in the regular season and win the tournament" cases - they give different RPI's at least if the loss comes on the road.  But, the weighted average of those two cases seems to be RPI 62.

I suppose it's worth considering Detroit's seeding potential, as well.  With their stronger SOS, their RPI will likely end out the season better than ours.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Detroit.html

If they finish fairly well, win or lose in the tournament, they could be in the 40's, 30's, apparently even in the 20's.

[zvillehaze]

One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.

So, are you saying you'd rather have two good RPI games versus playing UWM again?  Enjoy it this year, because I'm pretty sure wh will be petitioning to get the double-bye format eliminated since it was put in place for the sole benefit of Butler and is no longer needed.   

[zvillehaze]

Apparently loonardi bumped us to a 13 in his bracketology while the guy at CBS still has us as a 14 and playing butler in the first round

Palm updated today and still has the Valpo-Butler matchup he's had for the past several weeks ... as a NW Indiana resident, it's probably a matchup he's hoping for.  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology  I think Valpo has done enough to earn something better than a 14, obviously.

And for those who predicted Butler would finish 3rd-5th in the A-10 and be lucky to make the NIT, Palm is currently showing six A-10 teams in his bracket, and a 7th as his first team out.  That league is pretty strong this year.

[bbtds]

One thing good about the HL tournament format is you'll likely get two good RPI games. Valpo had far to many Mid-Con tournament openers against a 4-26 Chicago State team, which were RPI killers. Of the seven games remaining, there's not a bad RPI game, as long as Valpo wins out. If they can win out, they'll be 27-6 with an RPI of no worse than 50. It's hard to imagine a 14 seed under that scenario.

So, are you saying you'd rather have two good RPI games versus playing UWM again?  Enjoy it this year, because I'm pretty sure wh will be petitioning to get the double-bye format eliminated since it was put in place for the sole benefit of Butler and is no longer needed.   

It's the double bye that seems so unfair. I would not be opposed to a change to a single bye for the top 7 seeds (which means #9 at #8 would be the only first round game) even if Valpo finishes #1. I think the home court advantage of the 2nd and 3rd rounds and possibly the championship game would be enough benefit for the #1 seed. If more teams are added to the HL more teams can be added to the first round.

I was really feeling the spirit of RLH when I wrote that. God bless his soul. Someone has to keep carrying the "no double bye" mantra.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Valpo-Butler matchup

Not happening in the first round.  Butler will be a double-digit seed unless they run their table.

book it.

[chef]

Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.

[zvillehaze]

Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.

We're in agreement ... I was just trying to get wh riled up.   

Some argue the format isn't "fair", but as you point out, every team has an equal shot at earning byes and hosting games.  Like it or not, the format does a better job of "protecting" the RPI of its best teams.  It's also proven that a lower seeded team (CSU, Detroit) can win the tournament if they get hot.

Another argument has been that you could have a three-way tie for first and those teams would have vastly different outcomes.  That lessens a bit this year with the #3 seed getting 1 bye, but I actually like the WCC format for awarding several tiers of byes.  http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html

[StlVUFan]

Haze...just so you understand. In the Mid-Con, Valpo would play an awful CSU team in the opening round and then still have to win two more games. It was not out of the ordinary to start the Mid-Con tournament 60th in the RPI and finish the Mid-Con tournament 65th in the RPI. That would never happen as the top seed in the Horizon League. I have also stated from day one I have no problem with the Horizon League Tournament format. It rewards the teams that finish in the top 2 in the regular season. Everybody knows that going in. Thus, technically every school is on an even playing field. Additionally, it assures that the team that reaches the NCAA Tournament will have improved their RPI during the Horizon League Tournament.

We're in agreement ... I was just trying to get wh riled up.   

Some argue the format isn't "fair", but as you point out, every team has an equal shot at earning byes and hosting games.  Like it or not, the format does a better job of "protecting" the RPI of its best teams.  It's also proven that a lower seeded team (CSU, Detroit) can win the tournament if they get hot.

Another argument has been that you could have a three-way tie for first and those teams would have vastly different outcomes.  That lessens a bit this year with the #3 seed getting 1 bye, but I actually like the WCC format for awarding several tiers of byes.  http://www.wccsports.com/ot/12-wcc-tournament-central.html

My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).

(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.

It is a compromise to the fundamental principle of competition: 2 teams going against each other without any artificial handicaps; i.e., 2 teams on a level playing field where the only thing holding 1 team or the other back is their own performance in that game.  That way, when the favored team wins, they can say they didn't need to benefit from extra rest or anything like that.  I guess they do benefit from playing a lower seeded team rather than a higher seeded team, so okay, my vision is not a perfect one

But I don't see any way to solve the problem I've elucidated, so I can't complain too much.

[agibson]

A lot of losses this week, so we only fall one place, to number twelve.  All the losses do allow Davidson, a team that only won, to move from seventeen all the way to ten.

Detroit, deservedly, reenters the list.  The Horizon's seemed underrepresented for a while.

Update: February 18th, 2013
             
1.    Gonzaga (31)    25-2    775    1    West Coast
2.    Middle Tennessee    23-4    728    3    Sun Belt
3.    Wichita State    22-5    682    6    Missouri Valley
4.    Saint Mary's    22-5    674    2    West Coast
5.    Akron    21-4    640    7    Mid-American
6.    Creighton    21-6    618    4    Missouri Valley
7.    Belmont    20-6    585    5    Ohio Valley
8.    Louisiana Tech    23-3    576    9    WAC
9.    Bucknell    21-5    517    8    Patriot
10.    Davidson    19-7    472    17    Southern
11.    Stephen F. Austin    21-3    462    10    Southland
12.    Valparaiso    20-7    415    11    Horizon
13.    Montana    19-5    383    12    Big Sky
14.    BYU    19-8    361    14    West Coast
15.    Ohio    19-6    343    16    Mid-American
16.    Lehigh    18-6    292    13    Patriot
17.    South Dakota State    21-7    258    21    Summit
18.    Murray State    18-7    231    15    Ohio Valley
19.    Western Illinois    19-6    182    19    Summit
20.    Detroit    18-9    142    NR    Horizon
21.    Denver    17-8    131    NR    WAC
22.    Weber State    19-5    99    NR    Big Sky
23.    North Dakota State    20-7    82    20    Summit
24.    Stony Brook    19-6    76    NR    America East
25.    Indiana State    16-10    56    18    Missouri Valley

OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Eastern Kentucky 51, New Mexico State 42, Northwestern State 23, Northeastern 21, Bryant 20, Harvard 20, Utah State 20, Long Beach State 19, Northern Iowa 18, Vermont 18, Elon 7, Oakland 5, Oral Roberts 5, Mercer 5, Norfolk State 5, Western Michigan 5, College of Charleston 3, Florida Gulf Coast 2, Santa Clara 2, Southern 2, Albany 1, Niagara 1.

[oklahomamick]

In ESPN's bracketology, we dropped down to the 14 seed against 3 seed Kansas @ K.C.