Valpo in the Polls (and the HL too)

[talksalot]

and you can ask Detroit how that worked for them last year...   

[zvillehaze]

My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).

(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.

I finally understand point (a) a bit after my daughter travelled to Sioux Falls last year for the Summit tournaments (men's & women's) and had a blast.  As for (b), I don't really think the tourney format can create a multi-bid league out of a league that doesn't have multiple teams with at-large quality resume's.  If you have two or more really good teams, then protecting their RPIs with tournament byes makes sense. 

With that said, the Horizon's members are obviously free to use the location and format that best suits them. 

[StlVUFan]

My only arguments against the format have been: (a) as a fan, I miss attending every single tournament game from start to finish, all in one venue, and (b) what is truly a larger argument against a larger problem, namely the very phenomenon that has made it so hard for a conference like the HL to compete for at-large bids (even harder in the Mid-Con).

(a) isn't important, except to selfish fans like me
(b) isn't resolvable as far as I can tell, so I'm fine with the format in that context.

I finally understand point (a) a bit after my daughter travelled to Sioux Falls last year for the Summit tournaments (men's & women's) and had a blast.  As for (b), I don't really think the tourney format can create a multi-bid league out of a league that doesn't have multiple teams with at-large quality resume's.  If you have two or more really good teams, then protecting their RPIs with tournament byes makes sense. 

From the conference's point of view, I very much agree.  That's not the point of view I was thinking of, of course

[talksalot]

Oh the Mid Con days... Fun announcing every game at the Mark of the Quad Cities...(aka, ValpoWest)... and taking the train to Kansas City to watch every game there... great road trip.   I think it's nice that the HL gives the extra home game as a perk for coming in 3 4 5 6 in the conference...#2 does get the shaft... but remember our Students will once again be on spring break (3-2 thru 3-17)... we certainly will need the locals to come out en masse ...

and I hope I don't have to beg for a crowd on the 26th.  Senior Night... Clinch Night !

[bbtds]

#2 does get the shaft...

The #2 seed may not get a home game but that double bye is worth more than 1 home game, for sure. Also the #3 seed now gets a single bye which means, at least this year, no home game. They play their first game at the host's, #1 seed's, place.

[valpotx]

Most recent update has us as a 13 seed against Wisconsin.  That is a matchup I would not complain about at all 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

#12 per ESPN's Mid-Major Report
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/76865/mid-major-report-power-rankings-10

Valparaiso (21-7, 11-3 Horizon). The Crusaders are still on top of the Horizon League despite losing a war with Detroit over the weekend.

Detroit is #14.  Not easy to make a case that we should be ahead of any of the top 11, either.

[agibson]

I've corrected the "last week's ranking" numbers, which had several errors on the website.

Surprisingly little change to the top 12, given the Bracketbuster.    Creighton got hit surprisingly hard for losing at St. Mary's.  And Stephen Austin sort of inexplicably moved up a bit.  Other than that, not much changed.

Valpo still in 12th.  Moved up sort of half a place.

Update: February 25th, 2013

1.    Gonzaga (31)    27-2    775    1    West Coast
2.    Middle Tennessee    25-4    729    2    Sun Belt
3.    Wichita State    24-5    690    3    Missouri Valley
4.    Saint Mary's    24-5    686    4    West Coast
5.    Akron    22-4    653    5    Mid-American
6.    Belmont    22-6    609    7    Ohio Valley
7.    Louisiana Tech    24-3    588    8    WAC
8.    Stephen F. Austin    23-3    522    11    Southland
9.    Bucknell    23-5    520    9    Patriot
10.    Davidson    21-7    490    10    Southern
11.    Creighton    21-6    486    6    Missouri Valley
12.    Valparaiso    22-7    447    12    Horizon
13.    Murray State    20-7    342    18    Ohio Valley
14.    Montana    19-6    340    13    Big Sky
15.    BYU    20-9    320    14    West Coast
16.    Denver    18-8    271    21    WAC
17.    Ohio    20-7    270    15    Mid-American
18.    Weber State    20-5    251    22    Big Sky
19.    Stony Brook    21-6    149    24    America East
20.    South Dakota State    21-9    136    17    Summit
21.    Western Illinois    19-7    118    19    Summit
22.    Detroit    18-10    117    20    Horizon
23.    Lehigh    18-8    113    16    Patriot
24.    Harvard    17-7    75    NR    Ivy
25.    Norfolk State    18-10    60    NR    MEAC


OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Indiana State 47, Eastern Kentucky 46, New Mexico State 44, North Dakota State 26, Utah State 25, Robert Morris 15, Long Beach State 14, Niagara 14, Northwestern State 13, Northeastern 11, North Carolina Central 9, Mercer 8, Northern Iowa 7, Southern 7, Western Michigan 7, Bryant 6, College of Charleston 4, Santa Clara 4, Elon 3, Vermont 2, Albany 1, Army 1, Gardner-Webb 1, Jacksonville State 1, Lafayette 1, Loyola MD 1.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

And Stephen Austin sort of inexplicably moved up a bit.

Yeah, at first I was going to say, "but SFA easily won their toughest game yet--the BB road game at the Dirtbags"

but, Bucknell beat Lehigh on the road, to avenge an earlier loss.  and lehigh's a better team.

hm.

[valpotx]

A freaking MEAC team is in the top 25 at 18-10??  That is an absolute joke over some of the 'receiving votes' teams

[wh]

A freaking MEAC team is in the top 25 at 18-10??  That is an absolute joke over some of the 'receiving votes' teams

Speaking of jokes, look at Stephen F. Austin.  They're No. 8 with a seemingly impressive record of 23-3.  What their record doesn't show is that 4 of their 23 wins are over D-2 teams, and 13 of their 19 D-1 wins are over teams with losing records.  Their conference (Southland) RPI - is 25th of 32.  Oh, this is the "power" conference for which Oral Roberts left the Summit to join.

[valpotx]

I agree, as SFA is not good.  We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU.  The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been

[vu72]

I agree, as SFA is not good.  We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU.  The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been

I owuldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB.  They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.

[valpotx]

Their games have been played on Fox Sports Southwest occasionally, and they are not as good as their record indicates each time I have watched them.  I liken them to WSU this year, at best.  The Southland is a piss poor basketball conference, as evidenced by 7 of their 10 teams being sub-200 in RPI, and most with losing records.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I owuldn't be to sure about that.

agreed. they DID beat Oklahoma on the road.  that's one more top-50 scalp than we have.

[bbtds]

I agree, as SFA is not good.  We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU.  The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been

I agree, as SFA is not good.  We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU.  The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been

I owuldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB.  They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.

Does that make Stephen F Austin the one good team in a joke conference. It seems that statement matches what people used to say about Valpo when it was in the Mid-Con. People would say that the Mid-Con was a joke conference but we knew that Valpo was the good team in a joke conference.

Or is that just totally off base, valpotx?

Is SFA no good because they play in a joke conference?

Can a joke conference have one good team that makes it to the Big Dance often because the conference is a joke conference like Valpo was in the Mid-Con?

[valpotx]

SFA is no good because SFA is not good  .  I don't care what their record, mid-major ranking, or RPI says.  They would get whooped by Valpo this year, and just about any other year.  I have seen them play on TV several times, and it is nothing special.

[bbtds]

I agree, as SFA is not good.  We would beat them by 20+, just as we did EKU.  The Southland is a joke basketball conference, and always has been

I wouldn't be to sure about that. I watched them beat Long Beach State at LBS, by 8 during the BB.  They looked pretty good as LBS always is running and gunning.

I guess you two can agree to disagree. I have not seen SFA play. But with that record and playing well against the Sooners and The Beach I don't understand why valpotx thinks the Six Million $ Man (get it? Steve Austin!) is so bad. Maybe loyalty to SFA doesn't go beyond Austin City Limits. Which would be a shame because SFA is in Nacogdoches.   

[valpotx]

It might also be that I don't respect the school in anything, as it is basically a party school with some classes that happen to occur every now and then  .  Seriously though, they are a middle pack HL team.  We would beat LBSU by double digits as well.  In regards to Oklahoma, I can't say anything about them, since we don't play up to the BCS schools the last few years.  On the whole, we would beat SFA by 20 at home, and 8-10 on the road

[zvillehaze]

Maybe loyalty to SFA doesn't go beyond Austin City Limits. Which would be a shame because SFA is in Nacogdoches.   

Interesting to note that the Southland's two best teams (Stephen F. Austion and Northwestern State) are located in the "sister cities" of Nacogdoches, TX and Natchitoches, LA.  For my fellow old folks on the board, Northwestern State was the site of Jim Croce's last concert ... he was killed in a plane crash leaving Natchitoches in 1973.

[agibson]

On the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65.  YSU rises from 190 to 182 on the loss.

Detroit's is unchanged at 61 on beating Loyola.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

On the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65.

Here's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:

--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2

Now what kind of sense does that make?

[chef]

None. That's just about impossible. If Valpo plays Wright State in the semis and Detroit in the finals, the Crusader's opponents record will pick up about 12-14 wins over .500. Again 50% of your RPI is your opponent's record. Thus it is not possible to beat two teams well over .500 and not have your RPI improve.

[agibson]

None. That's just about impossible. If Valpo plays Wright State in the semis and Detroit in the finals, the Crusader's opponents record will pick up about 12-14 wins over .500. Again 50% of your RPI is your opponent's record. Thus it is not possible to beat two teams well over .500 and not have your RPI improve.

I think you're basically right - and there must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation.  (If nothing else, they seem not to have the conference seeding completely straight.  No huge surprise.  But, they still have open possibilities for Detroit playing two, three, or even four games in the HL tourney.)

Beating Wright State and Detroit, even at home, will surely improve our RPI, and our RPI rank.

I don't know why we'd trust the rest of their engine, necessarily.  But, they now have us as 53% likely to take the auto-bid, with Detroit 34%.

[Kyle321n]

Is there a chance that WSU etc playing the lower seeds will hurt their SOS and their RPI which will in turn hurt our RPI? Or am I thinking too much again?