Valpo in the Polls (and the HL too)

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, you're right.  But whoever we play will have just played Milwaukee.

The stench will be palpable, but since we've already played them twice, this is more like a single ply of toilet paper on our shoe than a bath in the peanut-butter-and-whatzit that one VU frat had back in the (late 80s? early 90s?).

[vu72]

The YSU win actually cost us 3 spots in the Sagarin's.  Could have been worse. Detroit lost 11 spots with the Loyola win.

[bbtds]

Well, you're right.  But whoever we play will have just played Milwaukee.

The stench will be palpable, but since we've already played them twice, this is more like a single ply of toilet paper on our shoe than a bath in the peanut-butter-and-whatzit that one VU frat had back in the (late 80s? early 90s?).

WSU or GB will finish as the #4 seed and play Milwaukee(#9) at home on Tue, March 5. If GB/WSU win they will then play the winner of the #6/#7 game at the ARC on Fri, March 8. Valpo will then take on the winner of the #4/#9/#6/#7 game at the ARC on Sat, March 9. That doesn't necessarily mean that team that Valpo plays will have just played Milwaukee. It could be #6 or #7 who will have not played #9 (Milw) or it could be #4 who would have beaten #6 or #7 before playing #1 (Valpo). Most likely Milwaukee loses their first round game on the road at # 4. 

[wh]

On the win over YSU Valpo's RPI rank goes from 66.... to 65.  YSU rises from 190 to 182 on the loss.

Detroit's is unchanged at 61 on beating Loyola.

Our RPI just improved to 63.

[FWalum]

Here's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:

--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2

Now what kind of sense does that make?

They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.

[wh]

Here's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:

--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2

Now what kind of sense does that make?

They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.

Our RPI is 63.  The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range. 

[valporun]

My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!

[StlVUFan]

My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!

Extremely well played. 

[FWalum]

My thought is this...I currently don't give a CRAP about the RPI calculations from any of these websites and numbers junkies. I just want to see Valpo play in the NCAA tournament again, make it happen regularly, and see that help with butts in the seats at the ARC, and tradition building of a solid NCAA garnering program again. Once we start getting spots on the Dance card again, then I'll give a hint of CRAP to the RPI calculations, but right now, I just want a Dance card!!!

I agree, but in defense of the number crunchers it is also important to know where we stand against our peers if the goal is to become a program that can be chosen as an at large candidate in those years when you don't win the conference tournament or if we want to be considered for a multi-bid conference.

[oklahomamick]

ESPN bracketology has Valpo as a 14 seed against Louisville in Lexington KY. 

[valpotx]

They just love this match-up.  It has been his pick for that seeding for just about each bracket

[bbtds]

Here's why RPIForecast has some bugs (not Buggs) to work out on the conf tourney side:

--click "without" and you see that if we win over GB we are forecasted to rise to 62.8.
--click "with" and you see that if we win over GB AND WIN BOTH TOURNEY GAMES we are forecasted to be 65.2

Now what kind of sense does that make?

They can't possibly know who our opponents will be (unless they have some kind of time machine) so they must be figuring some sort of average of probability, best and worst case scenarios, into the rpi calculation.

Our RPI is 63.  The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range. 

I applaud WH for calling his system CRAP. That is ingenious. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

there must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation

And I may have found something, now that the math is easier with but one game to play.  As of today:

Current:  66
Expected:  67.4

BUT

Expected RPI with win:  63.1
Expected RPI with loss:  71.8

So how does the "expected" of 67.4 compute, since it's going to be either 63 or 72?

The mathematically gifted among you have already calculated that 67.4 is the average of 63.1 and 71.8.

But we can't split the game.

[valpo4life]

If I had a guess it would be that the "expected" rpi would be the one we would having entering the game. It's predicting our rpi to drop by 1 or 2 before we take on GB

[LaPorteAveApostle]

yeah, I considered that, before I realized that that number, throughout the year, has been a prediction of where we'd end up at the end of the year.

In fact, all of the "expected" stats in that column are of that nature:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

[wh]

there must probably be something messed up with RPI Forecasts' RPI calculation

And I may have found something, now that the math is easier with but one game to play.  As of today:

Current:  66
Expected:  67.4

BUT

Expected RPI with win:  63.1
Expected RPI with loss:  71.8

So how does the "expected" of 67.4 compute, since it's going to be either 63 or 72?

The mathematically gifted among you have already calculated that 67.4 is the average of 63.1 and 71.8.

But we can't split the game.

Certain people on this board have been giving credibility to these "expected" numbers for days (weeks) now, when common sense said they can't possibly be accurate.  You have finally uncovered the secret that rather than a sophisticated calculation developed by a mathematical wizard, it's the wizard of oz deciding to split the difference between 2 either/or numbers and call it "projected."  That's why I came up with my own common sense (CRAP) projection, which I maintain is far more accurate than anything else I have seen quoted on this board.   

By the way, I'm looking to buy 1 of 2 homes - 1 is $200,000, the other $300,000.  How much money do I "project" having to spend?  $250,000, of course!  lol

[justducky]

Our RPI is 63.  The wh-developed Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator (commonly referred to as CRAP) indicates that if we beat Green Bay and win the HL Tournament (including a game against Detroit) our RPI will be in the 50-55 range. 

That's why I came up with my own common sense (CRAP) projection, which I maintain is far more accurate than anything else I have seen quoted on this board.   

I think this CRAP idea has both merit and potential so I would advise you to copyright the Collegiate RPI Analytical Prognosticator title and we will do our best to help you get it off the ground. Your goal should then be for an appearance on ESPN where they ask the following 2 questions. "What is this CRAP and how does this CRAP work?"

[LaPorteAveApostle]

From now on when people ask me "who gives a CRAP?" I will say, "why my friend wh of course."

Are you in search of investors?  Because I know a few people who are would like a piece of CRAP.

[StlVUFan]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Rank   Team           RPI           W-L   Conf   SOS Rk   SOS   AWP Rk   AWP        OOC W-L   OOC RPI   OOC SOS
58     Detroit       0.5691      18-11 Horz  97          0.5366  82            0.6667         6-7             76             18
62     Valparaiso   0.5653      23-7  Horz  175         0.4904  26            0.7899       10-4             78             231

Both teams gained today, though when I looked at it the first time, Detroit was ranked 59th.  When I went back to it a few minutes later, they had advanced to 58th.

[agibson]

I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.

[StlVUFan]

I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.

We actually spent about 30 minutes at 61, until BYU won and traded places with us again.

[a3uge]

I was surprised we didn't gain more - but it looks like we had dropped to 66 (or so) before the win.

We actually spent about 30 minutes at 61, until BYU won and traded places with us again.

We were at 61 with Baylor at 60... When Baylor lost I came back Alabama who was at 63 had taken that 60 spot without even playing a game. RPI is weird.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

[crusadermoe]

Valpo RPI   #62
Baylor RPI  #63

Did anyone predict that pre-season?

[wh]

According to Nolan the WAC is at this moment .0002 away from moving into the 12th position ahead of the HL.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conferencerpi