ok, what now?

[usc4valpo]

So how important was the Davidson game and the following game against Morehead State in regards to Dale Carlson's tenure at Valpo?  Carlson has been here 3 years with a record of 2-30.  I keep hearing there has been improvement, but is it enough?  They went from a team that is #246 in the Sagarin ratings to #245.  I know Sagarin is not the holistic metric that tells all.  But has there really been improvement?  I keep seeing a lot of disorganization during games and coaches running around like chickens with their heads cut off. 

Also, this is not all Carlson's fault of course.  The president and the suitors can say it, but Valpo is not committed to football success in any way, shape or form.  The university is going with the flow is just say they have a football team to bring on students.

I am not sure how to say it the right way, but the improvement at a high level is non-existent and the explanation of improvement is like buffing a turd.

[VULB#62]

Just adding information and maybe some context to contributors' thought processes: 

   Davidson's HFBC had 8 years in before being let go last week and replaced immediately by an interim coach; Campbell's HFBC started the program from scratch and was there for 6 years before it was announced last week that at the end of the season he would be gone. Stacey Adams was given five and was let go after the season.

   Administrative commitment, or lack thereof, does not make PATs, does not reduce confusion on the sideline, cannot control poor officiating, or cover receivers, etc.

   While better facilities might help attract and retain more talented players, they do not make PATs, do not reduce confusion on the sideline, cannot control poor officiating, or cover receivers, etc.

[usc4valpo]

I am glad of your input and getting the fact to provide a solid objective discussion. Thanks!

[vu72]

It is disheartening to see all the penalties, many of which seem wrongly called, nonetheless, we "earned" many of them.  It is this lack of concentration or execution or whatever that must fall on the coaches.  Offensively we seemed to show little imagination and defensively, although there was some hard hitting, there continued to be way to much space in which to operate.

I think this was a way bigger mess than any of us imagined. There seems to be some progress although in general it is very hard to see. I think the coach needs five years and that is probably what his contract says as well.

[90]

This latest loss has to be the last straw.  The confusion on the part of the team is a direct reflection of coaching.  The head coach is responsible for his hires and for getting everyone game ready.  The difference in this team from quarter to quarter and week to week is astonishing.  If you can't beat Davidson at home, the week their head coach was fired, you have problems that will not be solved with keeping this coaching staff around another two years.  Last I checked it takes brains to get into Valpo as a student.  So, we are dealing with smart kids here.  Coach Carlson has bragged repeatedly about the great athletes he has added to the roster with his recruiting savvy.  These guys have been playing football since grade school.  They know how to play the game, and most of them have come from winning programs.  There is a very real disconnect at game time.  Tired of hearing the same quotes from Carlson week after week.  We have to play with consistency, we have to make plays, we have to play for four quarters, we have to stop making the simple mistakes . . .

The revolving door of coordinators and assistant coaches has really hurt this program.  I believe that we can expect more of the same if Carlson remains HC.  He did not bring with him a solid group of coaches loyal to himself and his system.  A system that he either can't or refuses to adjust to the strengths of his team. The bad hire needs to be acknowledged and dealt with quickly.

Valpo has increased the funding to football.  Maybe not in ways visible to everyone and probably not enough to make everyone happy, but it is much better than in past years from what I'm told.  Funding all official recruiting visits to a non-scholarship program is generous and Carlson's players have received more work-out gear and shoes than any other head coach at Valpo could ever afford to give their teams.

I hope that President Heckler and the Board are asking questions of MLB.  How can a 2-30 coach be given more time?  Do the right thing before we start hearing word of another mass exodus of young men from the program.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

How can a 2-30 coach be given more time? 

Is 2-27-1 that much better?  If we'd thought not, then Coach Horne would never have seen the next three seasons, which went 15-16, including the 7-3 season in 1994. 

After the first 3 years, he went 65-73 in the next 13.  An average season of 5-5.5.  Getting rid of Coach Horne was like Minnesota thinking they could do better than Glen Mason.

And "whoops" to that.

I'm not saying Carlson's going to be Horne.  I'm just saying three years' record isn't enough unless there are other factors that outweigh it.

[vu72]

Fair enough.  as a Minnesotan I fully understand the Mason point. So, how much longer?

[usc4valpo]

What significant improvement has we seen in the past 3 years? 

[90]

What significant improvement has we seen in the past 3 years? 

Good point.  We appear to be less competitive in the PFL. That is unacceptable.  Valpo has been bad for too long to give Carlson more time.  If the team was showing consistent fundamentally sound football I might agree, but that is not the case.  It's simple disciplined football that is lacking here along with intelligent game planning and play calling (why would you not feature Hutson against Davidson after his performance last week?).  More time isn't going to change that.  Need a new approach with a new plan. 

[valporun]

I'm going to take some time, look at the box scores to see who has played, and what years they are in terms of eligibility. The experience of some of the played roster could have something to do with why this team is underperforming so poorly these last two seasons.

[usc4valpo]

I do not agree on the theory that since a previous coach has 5 years then the next coach should ask the same time period.  It should be measured on improvement, not entirely on wins and losses, but improvement.  Is there concrete improvement measured over 3 years to move forward?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Again, could've said the same thing about Horne. 

His offense, 1989-91: 
Year 1 100 pts
Year 2   97 pts
Year 3 104 pts

Where's the improvement? Yet:
Year 4 139 pts
Year 5 239 pts
Year 6 243 pts

Whereas, Carlson's offense, 2010-12:
Year 1:  100
Year 2:  177
Year 3:  178 plus one game

(Carlson gets one more game a year, so a straight points comparison between the two is invalid, but neither was that what I'm after anyway.)

[laura]

Stop the excuses. It is NOT the players. It is Carlson. Every player on the roster has played well in high school. All-Conference, All-Area, Some All-State. They all know how to play football. So what is the problem. Coach Carlson! Three years, three different Defensive coordinators. How many different assistant coaches? Why are we always playing freshmen? Carlson runs them off. So no stabilty in coaching staff and no stability on the roster.After 3 years we could be 1-9 at this point but at least we should be COMPETITIVE. What do you really think will happen if we give him 2 more years?

[crusadermoe]

Again, I don't know Coach Horne or his family.
But I will say it again for LaPorte's benefit and others:     Horne faced D-2 programs that gave scholarships and had VERY low academic standards to exceed.    I think chiefly of Grand Valley State and Saginaw Valley State in Michigan.       Absolutely different scenario.
So...enough with defending Carlson by comparing him to Horne's first 3 seasons!     Not to mention the campus was totally ugly then with no new buildings since early 80s when he coached.    Place was hurting across the board while Homer D.'s crew also lost big.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Horne faced D-2 programs that gave scholarships and had VERY low academic standards to exceed.    I think chiefly of Grand Valley State and Saginaw Valley State in Michigan.       Absolutely different scenario.
So...enough with defending Carlson by comparing him to Horne's first 3 seasons!     Not to mention the campus was totally ugly then with no new buildings since early 80s when he coached.    Place was hurting across the board while Homer D.'s crew also lost big.

Nothing you've said makes any sense.  If "ugly campus" had anything to do with football success then OSU would be in the MAC.

And actually, you've defended Horne's first 3 seasons.  Playing GVSU (a 91-0 loss in 1989; 55-0 in 1990) and SVSU (46-14 in 1990; 54-14 in 1991) didn't make the numbers look good.  How is that really any different from facing the YSUs and Duquesnes and WIUs?

I'd be happy to compare Horne's first 3 years in the Pioneer if you'd like.

[usc4valpo]

Dude, the point is that there has been no true improvement.  If you want stats, Valpo will move up in the Sagarin rating from year 1 to year 3 inder Dale Carlson from #246 to #245.  After 3 years, is that significant improvement?  Has the enthusiasm for football grown after 3 years?

To compare, Bill Clinton in 1992 had better justification when he said he was a great education governor in Arkansas.  Their national ranking under Clinton as governor went from #50 to #49.

However, this is not all Carlson.  Valpo is just not committed to successful football.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

However, this is not all Carlson.  Valpo is just not committed to successful football.

DING DING DING we have a winner.

So why pretend like changing the main deck chair on this Titanic will do anything?

[usc4valpo]

See, we can agree on something!!  So we know and define the common problem, so what is the solution?


On the other hand, Lane Kiffin may be available in a couple of weeks, as is Chizik, Petrino, Ditka, etc.  Imagine da Coach with a Don Tomas cigar in his mouth wearing gold blazer on the Brown Field sidelines, providing ash burns on the pro turf. He would have Jake Hudson run up the middle 50 times a game!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

In at least 52.3% seriousness, VU needs the Lutheran Jeff Jagodzinski.

If the name sounds familiar, it's because he was the last good coach BC ever had.  What's he doing now?  Assisting Ave Maria University with its program, now in its second season.  Seriously.

http://aveherald.com/news/ave-maria-news/1200-gyrenes-benefit-from-veteran-college-and-nfl-coach-jagodzinski.html

Obviously there are fewer Lutherans running around, but couldn't someone be persuaded?  Or perhaps a good generic Christian, like the Drews, could be persuaded?

[crusadermoe]

Ok.....list Horne's first 3 seasons in the Pioneer.    That would be a better comparison.

I MAY be wrong since I didn't study this stuff much.   But didn't Valpo play in an entire D-2 conference in '89 to '91.   The two Michigans just happened to be the most dominant of many tough D-2 teams in it?    Maybe I am mistaken on that point. 

[crusadermoe]

Pioneer League website shows that the league began play in 1993.   

Valpo's records under Horne in 1993, 1994, and 1995 were 5-5, 7-3, and 5-5.     

Sick of the excuses that VU "commitment to football" is the issue.   The two titles won by Horne even preceded the new turf, softball field and tennis courts.   If anything, recruiting should be easier now with a better campus library, union etc.

In all truth, Adams had his few early wins using Horne's players.     Carlson stunk it up using Adams' players for two years.    Year 3 was time to win using his own players.    One win over Campbell again?    From a distance I think he uses too much smoke and mirrors offense.  Just get 'er done. 

[90]

There is really no point in comparing stats between Horne, Adams and Carlson in my opinion.  A statement needs to be made that horrific coaching is not going to be tolerated.  The list of excuses is long and redundant. Too many coordinators and assistants in just three years have proven Carlson's lack of leadership ability.  Stupid play calling (biggest example is Hutson having just 8 carries the week after a huge day running the ball) has killed momentum over and over again.  I cannot stand to hear the spin put on the latest loss anymore.  We played hard for four quarters!  Really, that took them three years to accomplish?  Not something to be proud of!  If it took you three years to coach that, we have bigger problems.

I sincerely hope that Carlson's "smoke and mirrors" excuses and promises of PFL Championships coming soon to Valpo are not taken seriously by the administration.  My guess is that we will see the fallout of his own players having had enough soon.  If he stays, we can look forward to a FR heavy roster next season and more of the same rhetoric about the young team not knowing how to finish plays, games, etc.  Should be packing up his office now!

[crusaderjoe]

If Carlson's contract is a multi-year contract, and my guess is that it is, he's not going anywhere.  You don't offer a coach who beat out over 100 candidates three years ago an "at will" contract to turn things around. The risk would have been too great then for Carlson to accept. It doesn't make sense for VU to pull the trigger now on a contract that I am assuming has some kind of liquidated damage or "buy out" provision attached to it.  Valpo is not competing for BCS dollars.  The sense of urgency for the AD to remove a coach in a situation like this is therefore minimal.  There has been no off field breach of player integrity during Carlson's management of the program, so the only thing that remains is a look at wins and losses.  That is not enough to act on the contract now. If he was given five years, then he'll get five years, period and end of story IMO—if only to minimize the potential for litigation and/or damages as a result of a breach due to an early dismissal, or to avoid the payment of a "buy out".   

Capice?

[crusadermoe]

I am guessing you are right about the result of all of this.     

Also we should just stop with the excuses we keep making for Carlson and the comparisons to prior coaches.   

Al Davis:   "Just win baby"

[VULB#62]

My take on the options:

(1) Status quo until the contract terms (4-5 years) are satisfied.  Impact:  Continuous downward spiral, lessening quality of recruits for 13 and 14 due to abysmal record. Loss of some transfers and kids who opt out.   

(2) Retain HFC and increase budget and upgrade facilities to some measure; require emphasis on JC and transfers to bolster lineup; set firm, measurable achievement goals for the 2013 team; mandate review again at close of 2013 season.  Impact:  Eliminate all excuses for non-performance.

(3) Fire HFC immediately after season ends.  Impact:  Eat remaining years of the contract or negotiate buy-out.  Hire new coach within 30 days or lose recruiting class.  Then, start all over again with new system, new staff.  To lure new coach, increase budget and upgrade facilities to some measure. 

(4) Go through prolonged evaluation and then fire HFC into 2013.  Impact: Eat remaining years of the contract or negotiate buy-out.  Hire new coach and staff but lose recruiting class.  Then, start all over again with new system, new staff.  To lure new coach, increase budget and upgrade facilities to some measure but too late to attract talented kids or impact 2013 season.   

    PREDICTION:  What's behind door #1 Johnny?