ok, what now?

[VULB#62]

Here's another one .  This one is on Brian Kelly and #1 ND (and #1 in graduation rate).

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf--brian-kelly-showing-notre-dame-can-compete-for-national-titles-and-graduate-players-18140909.html

"Coaching. Talent. Recruiting. Facilities. Media. Fan passion."

Again it's the fantasy world of of the BCS, but the concepts still apply at whatever level you're at.

The link was sent to me by a fellow former VU FB player.

[vuweathernerd]

for those asking, i believe carlson's contract was for 5 years. but i'm drawing on a memory from over 3 years ago, so it may have corrupted by now.

[usc4valpo]

I understand that Carlson's contract may be for 5 years, does that imply that we should stick with him for another 2 years ?  I say no way.  Give him a job at the union or as a professor, but the insanity here has to stop.

[KL31NY]

Two questions: what is our source that this is a 5-year deal (just a refresher), and what precedent do we have for dropping a coach before the end of his/her contract?

I was actually looking for an answer for the former on the Times website and found this piece when Dale was hired. http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/columnists/jim-peters/jim-peters-former-players-believe-in-vu-s-carlson/article_cf9f46b1-db43-5e76-9e8a-fab229ef19cd.html It was a piece where Peters talked to Dale's players at his previous schools to guess how well he might do at VU. The quote below is just a quick excerpt, but I found it very apropos.

"He's got his work cut out for him," (Portage product and former Tri-State QB under Carlson) Wellman said. "But within two, three years, he'll have it where he wants to be. He doesn't make any guarantees. He just tells you that if you work hard and do what you're supposed to do, you'll be successful. VU will never go into a game next year that it's not prepared for."

[vuweathernerd]

Two questions: what is our source that this is a 5-year deal (just a refresher), and what precedent do we have for dropping a coach before the end of his/her contract?

I was actually looking for an answer for the former on the Times website and found this piece when Dale was hired. http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/columnists/jim-peters/jim-peters-former-players-believe-in-vu-s-carlson/article_cf9f46b1-db43-5e76-9e8a-fab229ef19cd.html It was a piece where Peters talked to Dale's players at his previous schools to guess how well he might do at VU. The quote below is just a quick excerpt, but I found it very apropos.

"He's got his work cut out for him," (Portage product and former Tri-State QB under Carlson) Wellman said. "But within two, three years, he'll have it where he wants to be. He doesn't make any guarantees. He just tells you that if you work hard and do what you're supposed to do, you'll be successful. VU will never go into a game next year that it's not prepared for."

i was going on memory based on what was reported when he was hired.

just pulled this off the old board:

Carlson is signed on for at least five years.

last post on the page for anyone who's interested.
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=allsports&action=display&thread=4125&page=3

[crusaderjoe]

Two questions: what is our source that this is a 5-year deal (just a refresher), and what precedent do we have for dropping a coach before the end of his/her contract?

I was actually looking for an answer for the former on the Times website and found this piece when Dale was hired. http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/columnists/jim-peters/jim-peters-former-players-believe-in-vu-s-carlson/article_cf9f46b1-db43-5e76-9e8a-fab229ef19cd.html It was a piece where Peters talked to Dale's players at his previous schools to guess how well he might do at VU. The quote below is just a quick excerpt, but I found it very apropos.

"He's got his work cut out for him," (Portage product and former Tri-State QB under Carlson) Wellman said. "But within two, three years, he'll have it where he wants to be. He doesn't make any guarantees. He just tells you that if you work hard and do what you're supposed to do, you'll be successful. VU will never go into a game next year that it's not prepared for."

i was going on memory based on what was reported when he was hired.

just pulled this off the old board:

Carlson is signed on for at least five years.

last post on the page for anyone who's interested.
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=allsports&action=display&thread=4125&page=3

Man, there was so much hope and excitement in that thread...

[vuweathernerd]

Man, there was so much hope and excitement in that thread...

there really was, wasn't there? amazing how things have (not) changed in that time with football...

[KL31NY]

Thanks, weathernerd, for the "five year" source.

What's our schedule gonna look like for next season? I know the 2012 season only just ended, but I'm curious how many "winnable" games we're gonna try to set up for. After a couple years of trying, I'm not up for the experience of going to a place like YSU to get drilled again. Side note: YSU did not even make the FCS playoffs despite a 7-4 record, win over Pitt, and a strong conference to come out of (Missouri Valley Football Conference)

[VULB#62]

Man, there was so much hope and excitement in that thread...

there really was, wasn't there? amazing how things have (not) changed in that time with football...

Thanks for posting the link to the old FanZone.  I went back and read all the postings and have to agree on the expressed hope and excitement.  I scraped this from the posted Jan 16, 2010 Mutka article that was posted there:

"Carlson is signed on for at least five years. Will it take that long to reverse a program which has won only 15 games since 2005?

Carlson pointed out that Pioneer Football League rival Butler went from doormat to conference champion over the last three years. He also included VU's recent history, which included going from 1-10 in 2002 to PFL champion the following year.

"I can't put a time frame on it," he said. "We're going to get it turned around. We're going to be competitive pretty quickly." 

Saying all the right things and actually doing them, we now learn, are two different animals.   

[bbtds]

Here's another quote I found interesting from the story in Jan. 2010 when Coach Carlson was hired:

"The president (Mark Heckler) made it clear we don't want to have a football program just to have a football program," Carlson said. "They want to compete at the highest level, to take it to that point."

I guess not only Carlson was trying to say all the correct things.

[crusadermoe]

Didn't the A.D. also make statements about his goals for the unit?   

I might recall wrong, but his football goals were more modest than for other sports.      BUT....I think it was something l like CONTEND at least every 3 years for a conference title......        Kind of underwhelming right off the bat.    Maybe somebody can find an old press release.

Still the 3 years is up.    Not even close to contending.   Hope A.D. and Pres. were serious.

[usc4valpo]

This previsou quotes actually have some comedic value in it.  Let's see if Heckler can actually "walk the walk."

[willy]

I hear Morehead States Coach is available.  They beat us by 52 points last Saturday, Wonder if he would come to Northern Indiana?

[VULB#62]

I hear Morehead States Coach is available.  They beat us by 52 points last Saturday, Wonder if he would come to Northern Indiana?

Here is the text of the release from the MSU Eagles web site:

MOREHEAD, Ky. -- Morehead State Director of Athletics Brian Hutchinson has announced that Head Football Coach Matt Ballard's contract will not be renewed after it expires in December.  Ballard served as head coach of the Eagles for 19 seasons and an assistant for four additional years.

"It is very important to me that we express our gratitude for Coach Ballard's efforts on behalf of our program for over two decades," Hutchinson said.  "He inherited a program that was in shambles, and had an opportunity to coach and lead several hundred young men over the years.  I am grateful to him for his dedicated service to our university."

Morehead State posted a 102-105 record in Ballard's time as its head coach.  The Eagles finished the 2012 campaign 4-7 overall and 3-5 in the Pioneer Football League.

"We have not made continual progress on the football field," Hutchinson added.  "The program is not performing up to the expectations we have for it.  Over the years, we have identified obstacles to our success and have been diligent in addressing them.  The results have been consistent for a few seasons now, and it is time to change leadership."

A national search for Ballard's replacement will begin immediately.

Here's the link:
http://www.msueagles.com/news/2012/11/20/FB_1120124512.aspx?path=football

Right now we'd kill for those numbers.  That makes 3 out of the bottom 4 HFCs goners.  Add 2 new ones at Mercer and Stetson and that's almost half the conference starting from scratch.  It also reduces the available pool of qualified replacement prospects should a change occur at Valpo (inshallah).  But if it is gonna happen, it's gotta be now.

[usc4valpo]

I read about how Valpo interview over 100 candidates for the coaching job before selecting Carlson.  My question is did they really interview over 100 candidates or did they get 100 responses or resumes?  Also, what experience did these candidates have - watching football at a bar in Lincoln Park top bratwurst chef at the Memorial Stadium tailgate?

[Valposter]

I read about how Valpo interview over 100 candidates for the coaching job before selecting Carlson. My question is did they really interview over 100 candidates or did they get 100 responses or resumes? Also, what experience did these candidates have - watching football at a bar in Lincoln Park top bratwurst chef at the Memorial Stadium tailgate?

Or Madden NFL video game player, or Soldier Field usher, or.............

[FWalum]

I read about how Valpo interview over 100 candidates for the coaching job before selecting Carlson. My question is did they really interview over 100 candidates or did they get 100 responses or resumes? Also, what experience did these candidates have - watching football at a bar in Lincoln Park top bratwurst chef at the Memorial Stadium tailgate?

Or Madden NFL video game player, or Soldier Field usher, or.............

Do you honestly think this is helping? 

[usc4valpo]

sorry my bad. Realty is setting in.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Realty is setting in.

Careful...I hear it's a down market for sellers.

[usc4valpo]

I asked for that one.    Again my bad.

[VULB#62]

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN 2013

OK, Let's assume the HFC is back in 2013.  What will the Crusaders face? 

What we know
~ Campbell, Davidson and Morehead will all have new coaches.
~ These programs consistently ranked higher in the PFL in almost every offense and defense category over the past three years
~ Valpo was by far the worst team in the league (see stats below taken from  the PFL stats page)
~ Morehead and Davidson both lose their starting QBs to graduation
~ Of the newbies (Mercer and Stetson), Valpo only plays one: Mercer @ Mercer's brand new stadium/field house facility
~ Davidson and Campbell play Mercer at home; Morehead does not play Mercer.
~ Davidson and Campbell also play @ Stetson; Morehead does not play Stetson

What we can assume
~ The top/middle tier of the PFL will retain their coaching staffs
~ Valpo will have their 4th Defensive Coordinator in as many years
~ Despite graduation losses at the top/middle tier PFL schools, the talent drop-off will not be so significant that Valpo will surpass them
~ Top tier schools will retain their undergraduate talent and attract superior talent in the incoming class of 2013 (rich get richer)
~ Valpo will have even more difficulty attracting game changing talent based on 3 years of poor performance
~ Valpo may lose some talent to drop-out or transfer
~ To attract new coaches and assist in their recruiting, Morehead, Campbell and Davidson will make significant investments in FB in 2013
~ Valpo will not plow any significant additional funds into the FB program above what is being invested at this point
~ VU Football donations will not appreciably increase
~ Hiring a new HFC will inspire renewed enthusiasm and changed attitudes at each of the other three bottom feeder schools
~ Morale at Valpo will not improve or will further nose-dive

What we can conclude for 2013
~ Top/middle tier schools will maintain the quality of their programs and remain competitive
~ The other three bottom feeders will improve
~ Valpo may improve slightly, but will still lose ground in comparison to the other three bottom feeders
~ It will be tougher to win in 2013 than in 2012
~ Valpo will be 2-9 or 3-8 in 2013, but could be 0-11 or 1-10 again   

I'd be interested in feedback on these ideas as well as the stat sheet that is attached (click to expand).

[Valposter]

I agree with all of the points 62 made above and it does not paint a pretty picture.  Does it make sense to take the Xavier approach and not try to be all things to all people.  Eliminate football and reallocate precious scarce resources to athletic programs with strong leadership, success, and stability like basketball, baseball, softball, soccer.  Enhancements to the ARC, a new baseball field and athletic park, increased budgets to reward and retain successful coaches, etc.  I am sure football has a large operating budget and I am not sure Valpo is getting the return on the investment.

This is not meant to be a negative post and is certainly not intended to disrespect the current or past players in the program.  Just trying to take a global business view of the athletic program and maximize resources.

[usc4valpo]

Valposter,

I see where you are getting at. I do not want Valpo to get rid of football if the administration and athletic department have competence to operate a football program that the students, players, community and alumni can feel good about.  Right now, it is obviously not happening.  I reviewed 62's comments and they were objective and well said.  I would like to see football at Valpo if it is operated properly. I think it can be done with the right strategy and a reasonable budget.  But if they want to keep things in this pathetic status quo state, then let's avoid the fluff and remove football.

If you keep football, please get rid of Carlson and the smoke and mirrors.  There is no reason honoring a contract should keep you moving forward with this agenda. Explanations have not been met.  A 2-31 record and a -31 point differential per game is a sufficient explanation.

[VULB#62]

Another thought (question?) on why we are in the situation we are in. 

We've already     the ideas around the "builder from scratch" coach vs. the "turn-around skilled" coach. Listening to some MAC FB scores while listening to the VU-CSU BB game on the radio, another thought/question came to mind.  Coach Carlson's frame of talent reference,  recruiting experience, and "pipeline,"  were all pretty much at the NAIA, D-III level. How does a Northern Illinois coaching staff recruit to assemble a team that is now 11-1?  They have to go head to head with Northwestern and Illinois.  Yet they still get the necessary talent for their level of competition.

I don't have the answer to this, just asking the question. It's a big jump from D-III to I-AA (scholarship or not).

[LaPorteAveApostle]

In the case of a MAC school, I think it would be instructive to note that that is a league in which random teams pop out with regularity--this year Kent, last year Ohio, year before that Buffalo, CMU before that; Ball State not too long before under Coach Hoke.  So a lot of that is I think how teams stack up and rises/falls.  NIU was good long ago in the days of LeShon Johnson too.  It seems to be far more cyclical at the mid-major level, as we know from basketball.

Also, note that NIU success seems not to transfer to the B1G--Kill, party of joy, your table is ready.