Looking to December

[wh]

We have 8 big games coming up in December, including 5 on the road:

Sun, Dec 2    at Saint Louis (3-2)   
Wed, Dec 5    IPFW (4-3)
Sat, Dec 8    at New Mexico (6-0)
Sat, Dec 15    at Missouri State   (2-4)
Mon, Dec 17 at Oakland (2-5)   
Thu, Dec 20 IUPUI (3-4)
Sat, Dec 22    Purdue Calumet
Sat, Dec 29    at Murray State (5-1)

How many Dec. games will we win?

[wh]

A healthy Capo plus Dority for the last 5 of the 8 will hopefully position us for an excellent month.  I will predict losses at New Mexico and Murray State and hope we eke out wins at St. Louis, Missouri State and Oakland. That would put us at 11-3 going into conf. play.

Probably a bit overly optimistic, but that's the way I roll...

[valpopal]

5-3 (losses at St. Louis, New Mexico, Murray State), enough to put Valpo at double digit wins and my original optimistic preseason prediction (10-4) before the conference begins.

[valpotx]

I am saying 6-2, with the 2 losses to New Mexico and Murray State

[milanmiracle]

I am saying they lose to St. Louis, New Mexico, and Murray St. I am hoping they avoid the usual slip up to IPFW. Something and 4 heading into conference isn't too bad.

[agibson]

I figure they could reasonably take one from the anointed three, but then slip against one of the "lesser" opponents.  Five wins seems like a reasonable guess.  More would be great!

[EddieCabot]

The 5 games against a non-DI and DI teams with RPIs of 200+ (most closer to 300) are no brainers.  Mark them as wins.  I voted 6, but that's really the worst case in my opinion.  Here's how I handicap the other 3 games:

SLU - They've been unimpressive so far, dealing with losing their head coach and their best player (Kwamain Mitchell) in the early season.  They also travel to Washington for a Wednesday night game ... Valpo is off the entire week and should be well rested and healthy.  Their arena is nice, but it won't be near capacity and isn't a particularly hostile environment.  All things considered, this is a game Valpo should win.

New Mexico - IMO, the toughest December game.  This is a Saturday game following a Wed home game for Valpo and travel to Albuquerque isn't easy.  Very loud and tough environment, as they'll have close to 15,000 in the Pit.  The altitude is also a factor ... the visiting locker rooms and ramps down to the court have warning posters about the symptoms of altitude sickness prominently displayed.  Lastly, Steve Alford is keenly aware of Valpo's reputation and his team will be prepared.  I think Valpo loses this one.

Murray State - Had to come from behind last night to beat a mediocre Lipscomb team, so they are certainly beatable.  Canaan is very good, but being able to use both Buggs and Dority to defend him will be a huge factor and could wear him down.  They also don't have the size to match up with Valpo bigs, so Capo and Van Wijk should control the paint.  Playing over break while the students are gone is also big.  All signs point to Valpo being the favorite in this one.

[bbtds]

Murray State - Had to come from behind last night to beat a mediocre Lipscomb team, so they are certainly beatable.  Canaan is very good, but being able to use both Buggs and Dority to defend him will be a huge factor and could wear him down.  They also don't have the size to match up with Valpo bigs, so Capo and Van Wijk should control the paint.  Playing over break while the students are gone is also big.  All signs point to Valpo being the favorite in this one.

You totally missed the contributions of Buckwheat/Chia Pet/Artis Gilmore hair Ed Daniel. Did you not?

I would say Lipscomb would have given Valpo a very good game. The Bison hit some very tough 3's last night. Of course Lipscomb also went cold (something Valpo is known to do at times) and the "speed of the Racers" did them in. But without Daniel under the basket and getting to the FT line Murray State doesn't win.

[crusadermoe]

I like your optimism.      Agree strongly that New Mex is loss.    90%?

Hope so re SLU and Murray St. and your reasons.     Don't know much about SLU, but they beat a good team last week.  Can't recall who.      SLU win is 33% chance as I see it and Murray a 50/50 toss up since we get to full strength.   

[bbtds]

Don't know much about SLU, but they beat a good team last week.  Can't recall who. 

Bills beat Texas A&M in Kansas City in CBE tournament,70-49, where they also lost to Kansas 73-59. Jordair Jett had a really bad game and left early in the 2nd half with an injury.

My U-verse gets Fox Sports Midwest-StLouis here in Indy so I get quite a bit of SLU coverage.

[milldew72]

Losses to IPFW, UNM, STL, Murray State and Missouri State.
They had to fight to hang on against Chicago State and Bethune Cookman, and lost to a Nebraska team that just lost to Kent State by double digits.
If Ryan doesn't come out in all these games like he did against BC, they're sunk.

[valpopal]

A healthy Capo plus Dority for 7 of the 8 will hopefully position us for an excellent month.

You may want to reconsider your prediction since Valpo will have Dority only for 5 of the 8 games, not 7.

[wh]

A healthy Capo plus Dority for 7 of the 8 will hopefully position us for an excellent month.

You may want to reconsider your prediction since Valpo will have Dority only for 5 of the 8 games, not 7.

Good catch, thanks.  I set the poll up so once you cast your vote you can't change it, but even if I could I would predict the same with or without Dority (win vs. IPFW and loss to NM).  I did go back and edit my original comment, so it doesn't mislead anyone else.

[covufan]

Definitely 5, but hoping for 6.

[truth219]

I think we will only lose to new mexico.....although if we win all 8 I think we could get some top 25 votes

[agibson]

although if we win all 8 I think we could get some top 25 votes

Yeah, that's probably correct.

[vu72]

although if we win all 8 I think we could get some top 25 votes

Yeah, that's probably correct.

I think if we win them all we should BE in the top 25, not just receive votes! Remember, SLU, NM, and MS are all top 60 teams (Sagarin--NM 39, SLU 49 and MS 59), while we currently are ranked 79, and they are all on the road.  It will be a very tough accomplishment.

[covufan]

Obviously Setshot has not voted, since the votes appear to be more optimistic!

[crusadermoe]

Truth, I thought you were a cynic.    Did you happen to start drinking the kool aid with some other posters?

[wh]

Love the optimism from our two 8-0 predictors.  We're all pulling for you! 

[truth219]

I think we better win at least 6 if not 7...if we don't win more than 5 we are no better than we were last year. All this anticipation for this year will be wasted. All the talk about playing sloppy on the road and missing easy shots...has to be just that ...talk. I will be let down if we don't do something special this year. Kevin and ryan are legit and they should lead this team to some impressive wins this month.

[talksalot]

I'm pulling for 6 for all of the reasons stated above... I'm only allowing us 5 losses for the season and I'd hate to require a 15-1 Conference run... but that's probable... and I'm giving us the win in the "bbuster" regardless of who they send our way.   That would mean a perfect ARC season... first since '94-5.  I'm a little concerned about Dority coming in mid-stream... we have an OK chemistry going on... are we plugging him in the 1 2 or 3?? and would he be in the Fernandez-Kenney-Coleman line change?

[truth219]

Dority is a point. He will come in for erik or he may play the 2. I hate to say it but bogan, boggs, kenney, and coleman are going to be competing for minutes. In my opinion kenney and coleman are the better players. Will an shoot a little and ben can drive a little...other than that they aren't superstars. They are role players and you can only have so many of those.

[EddieCabot]

The 5 games against a non-DI and DI teams with RPIs of 200+ (most closer to 300) are no brainers.  Mark them as wins.  I voted 6, but that's really the worst case in my opinion.  Here's how I handicap the other 3 games:

SLU - They've been unimpressive so far, dealing with losing their head coach and their best player (Kwamain Mitchell) in the early season.  They also travel to Washington for a Wednesday night game ... Valpo is off the entire week and should be well rested and healthy.  Their arena is nice, but it won't be near capacity and isn't a particularly hostile environment.  All things considered, this is a game Valpo should win.

New Mexico - IMO, the toughest December game.  This is a Saturday game following a Wed home game for Valpo and travel to Albuquerque isn't easy.  Very loud and tough environment, as they'll have close to 15,000 in the Pit.  The altitude is also a factor ... the visiting locker rooms and ramps down to the court have warning posters about the symptoms of altitude sickness prominently displayed.  Lastly, Steve Alford is keenly aware of Valpo's reputation and his team will be prepared.  I think Valpo loses this one.

Murray State - Had to come from behind last night to beat a mediocre Lipscomb team, so they are certainly beatable.  Canaan is very good, but being able to use both Buggs and Dority to defend him will be a huge factor and could wear him down.  They also don't have the size to match up with Valpo bigs, so Capo and Van Wijk should control the paint.  Playing over break while the students are gone is also big.  All signs point to Valpo being the favorite in this one.

Thought I'd revisit my prediction ... I went with 6 wins and think that's still likely.  I was right on SLU (ie. small crowd/average team), but Valpo just didn't play their game.  Now word is out that Broekhoff has mono and Capobianco is far from 100%, so I guess it makes sense.

I originally thought UNM would be extremely tough, but Indiana State took them to OT, so they are certainly beatable by Valpo (who without a doubt has more talent than ISU).  The game is at UNM, so it will take a great effort.  If Broekhoff and Capobianco are still less than 100%, it will be tough, but we'll see in a few days.

Even if they can't get UNM, they can still get to 6 with a win at Murray.

[milanmiracle]

Dority is a point. He will come in for erik or he may play the 2. I hate to say it but bogan, boggs, kenney, and coleman are going to be competing for minutes. In my opinion kenney and coleman are the better players. Will an shoot a little and ben can drive a little...other than that they aren't superstars. They are role players and you can only have so many of those.

Right there with you...

1. Dority with Buggs as a spark off the bench.
2. Kenney/Coleman

I am not impressed with either Bogan or Boggs. They're bench players, which is fine, but they shouldn't be playing major minutes.

I also like Fernandez playing more. Yes, he's raw (very, very raw), but he's also much more athletic and can cover some of the mistakes against the quicker teams VU is going to see. I know they need his offense to improve, but honestly I'd work on his defense first. As long as he can learn to rotate and help, the offense is just a bonus. Capo is just not healthy, and until then I reserve judgement