Opponents' scoreboard

[bbtds]

1/9/13 Wednesday

Nebraska                 47
Michigan                   62
Northern Illinois       72
Miami (OH)               61
Toledo                     70
Kent                        58
Cleveland State      53
Wright State           69
Valpo                      75
UI-Chicago              70
Eastern Kentucky     77 
Murray State            65
Loyola (IL)                45 
Green Bay                58
Nev.-Las Vegas        60
New Mexico              65


1/10/13 Thursday - all times EST

Detroit at Youngstown State 7:05 p.m.
IUPUI at Nebraska-Omaha 8:00 p.m.
Fort Wayne at North Dakota State 8:00 p.m.
Oakland at South Dakota State 8:00 p.m.
Massachusetts at Saint Louis 9:00 p.m.

[bbtds]

By the way, the same Loyola team that beat Valpo at the ARC, only scored 10 points in the first half against Green Bay Wednesday night. 

The Ramblers finished with 45 total points but that sure does make it look like Valpo caught Loyola at the wrong time. After the Crusaders beat Milwaukee on Saturday they will have to take care of business against Detroit next Thursday.

Although, tomorow/Thursday Detroit will face a tough YSU team in Youngstown. That will be a very exciting HL battle between the Penguins and the Titans. 

[valpotx]

Yikes, we had NIU help us out with a win, but then Murray State drops one against EKU at home...

[talksalot]

The Sagarin went from 89 to 84 and the WarrenNolanRpi went from 113 to 104.  Sure would be nice to have the Racers win-out.  The rest of the OVC is not strong...not looking for a lot of help with tonight's games.  The Dakota States should hold serve; SLU and IUP should also win... and I'll say the 'guins at home against the coaches mcCallum

[bbtds]

1/10/13 Thursday

Detroit                       101
Youngstown State     60
IUPUI                         79 
Nebraska-Omaha      90
Fort Wayne                55
North Dakota State    67
Oakland                     74
South Dakota State   81
Massachusetts           62
Saint Louis                 70


1/11/13 Friday - all times EST

Creighton at Missouri State 8:05 p.m.
Wright State at Loyola (IL) 9:00 p.m.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

For whom should we root in a game pitting two opponents?

As the conference season advances, this becomes inevitable on an almost-daily basis, but it still happens in teams from our OOC schedule meeting, e.g. UNM (RPI 10) @ St. Louis (RPI 47), or perhaps our MAC opponents.  I suppose the first question should be "does it even matter?"

One might think it doesn't make a difference, but would the gut reaction "the higher rated team should be rooted for so they continue to improve so that win looks better" hold true?  Or conversely, if there's a team with a chance to get out of the Milwaukee Zone, perhaps we should root for the upset?

The closest thing I have found to an answer to this question is on our team page in RPIForecast.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

If you scroll to the last entry, below the histogram of 10000 simulated seasons in red, you'll see a HUGE table of teams and their impact on our RPI.

You will see teams on there you don't even know on that list affecting VU, because even though they are not our opponents, they are our opponents' opponents.  Let's call this the Six Degrees of Steve Alford Effect.  And by clicking on the columns you can reorder the teams.  Obviously we have the greatest current positive impact on our own RPI, as well as expected impact, but you'd be surprised to know that New Mexico is 2nd and St. Louis 3rd currently (or 1st and 2nd after the DUH, US entry), and it's expected that they will still end up 6th and 7th, respectively--losing to them having a greater positive effect on us than even teams we will beat twice such as YSU (which unlike CSU, GB and MILW, at least is a positive effect at this point)!!!

So in this case, we should have rooted for UNM (for all the good it did us): regardless of whether we won or lost, the computer will tell us who has a higher positive effect, and so for that team we should cheer.  For the record, Murray State, unsurprisingly, will end up being the top OOC positive factor.

Perhaps in future editions of this feature we might embolden the name of the team we should prefer, in cases where it is not obvious?
("root for" seems far too strong in any game involving, say, Detroit.)
((And yet, due to electron-shell-type distance I cannot comprehend, we need to root for Butler in any conference game against VCU or Charlotte, for example! Check it if you don't believe me!!!))

[bbtds]

No.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Too bad, dude.  The rhetorical questions don't require the answers, as they say.

I've tweaked the criterion--instead of just expected impact, I'm looking at WEIGHT, and instead of expected, I'm looking solely at the CURRENT, because that's what we're looking at, games in the here and now.

Bolded team is the team that has (or would have had) the more positive impact now on VU by winning.
Italicized team is the team that is expected to benefit us more if the season plays out as expected (and we win the games we are expected to, etc.

1/10/13 Thursday

Detroit             101
Youngstown St  60
Since we have played neither, it comes down to opponents' opponents, and Detroit currently is (tied for) last at ZERO effect on our RPI.  Yet Detroit is the better team, and so if we beat them, we should better off in the long run...just not now.

IUPUI                         79 
Nebraska-Omaha  90

Fort Wayne                55 
North Dakota St  67
NB NDSU is predicted to have more positive impact on us than any other opponent's opponent (current: 0; expected: +.21!).  GO GET 'EM, THUNDAR!!!

Oakland                   74     expected impact, 1/9:  -.25; current weight, 1/9: 3.22
South Dakota State   81  expected impact, 1/9: +.04; current weight, 1/9: .10
NB In this instance as well as the first we see that the choice is not always clear.  It of course could be argued that teams we lost to need to win to redeem those losses, but the RPI formula seems to indicate that in leagues such as the Summit where we have multiple opponents, the multiplied effect of multiple-opponents'-opponents might actually outweigh it IF the latter teams are really good teams.  I'll monitor this after this loss to see whether the gain from SDSU's win (for VU) outweighs the loss from OU's loss (for VU).

Massachusetts           62 
Saint Louis        70


1/11/13 Friday - all times EST

Wright State at Loyola (IL) 9:00 p.m.

[bbtds]

1/11/13 Friday

Creighton           74
Missouri State    52
Wright State       62
Loyola (IL)          61
   

1/12/13 Saturday - all times EST

Valpo at Milwaukee 2:00 p.m.
Kent at Ball State 2:00 p.m.
Fresno State at New Mexico 3:00 p.m.
North Carolina A&T at Bethune-Cookman 4:00 p.m.
Akron at Northern Illinois 4:00 p.m.
Chicago State at New Jersey Inst. Tech. 4:00 p.m.
UI-Chicago at Green Bay 4:00 p.m.
Detroit at Cleveland State 4:30 p.m.
Oakland at North Dakota State 5:00 p.m.
Fort Wayne at South Dakota State 5:00 p.m.
Saint Louis at Temple 6:00 p.m.
Georgia Southern at Wofford 7:00 p.m.
Murray State at Austin Peay 8:30 p.m.

[valporun]

The UIC-Green Bay game time was moved up to 3PM CT/4PM ET because of the 49ers-Packers. They didn't want anyone in GB to miss the Packer game because of a Phoenix they could have ignored anyway.

[bbtds]

1/12/13 Saturday

Valpo                              76
Milwaukee                      52
Kent                                61
Ball State                        47
Fresno State                   45
New Mexico                     72
North Carolina A&T          60 
Bethune-Cookman           72
Akron                               68 
Northern Illinois               53
Chicago State                  78  3 OT
New Jersey Inst. Tech.     83
UI-Chicago                       47
Green Bay                        53
Detroit                             62 
Cleveland State               74
Oakland                           57 
North Dakota State          73
Fort Wayne                      57 
South Dakota State         83
Saint Louis                      54
Temple                            64
Georgia Southern             53 
Wofford                            71
Murray State                    71
Austin Peay                      68


1/13/13 Sunday - all times EST

Nebraska at Michigan State 6:00 p.m.

[bbtds]

1/13/13 Sunday

Nebraska          56
Michigan State  66


1/14/13 Monday - all times EST

Davidson at Georgia Southern 7:00 p.m.
North Carolina Central at Bethune-Cookman 7:30 p.m.
Benedictine at Chicago State 8:00 p.m.

[bbtds]

1/14/13 Monday

Davidson                       57 
Georgia Southern          70
North Carolina Central  75 
Bethune-Cookman        66
Benedictine                                   53 
Chicago State                                77


1/16/13 Wednesday - all times EST

Northern Illinois at Ohio 7:00 p.m.
Kent at Buffalo 7:00 p.m.
Missouri State at Indiana State 7:05 p.m.
Loyola (IL) at UI-Chicago 8:00 p.m.
New Mexico at Boise State 9:00 p.m.
Purdue at Nebraska 9:00 p.m.

[vu72]

So Geo So. beats Davidson, a Sagarin 300 beats a Sagarin 100.  Does this hurt or help Valpo ranking wise?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Gee!  I'm glad you asked!

BEFORE this game, GA-SO was 2.94 of our RPI current weight and were expected to be a -0.47 impact.
Davidson was 0.18 of current weight and expected to be a +0.06 impact.

I'll recheck tomorrow, but I'm guessing that even though Davidson has multiple shared opponents with us (Milwaukee, New Mexico, and Ga-So--a second time later, though at home), the more Davidson wins it's good for us, but Ga-So is such a drag on us that we need them to win games like this.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So now:

Davidson is 0.28 of our weight, greater because of the game, but only +.04 impact, because they lost.
Ga-SO is still 2.94 weight, because we didn't play, but now only -0.26 impact.

Before this game, Davidson was +0.0108 (weight times impact) and Ga-So was -1.3818, for a net of -1.371.

After it, Davidson was +0.0112--greater positive even though they lost because the game being played itself more than balanced out!  Ga-So shot up to -0.7644, for a net of -.7532.

So this game looks to help our RPI out by over 6-tenths of a point.

So it seems that we should almost always favor our opponents over our opponents' opponents.  The only time this is in doubt is when our opponents are the same as our opponents' opponents, esp. conf. matchups.

[valpotx]

Yes, it is always best to root for your direct schedule.  If we win the conference regular season and tourney, I imagine that we would be a 13/14 seed

[vu72]

I got my answer.  Before the Ga. Southern win Valpo was ranked 93 and Detroit 94. The next day (today) Valpo is ranked 81st and Detroit stayed at 94.  Horizon firmed ranked 11th.

[justducky]

I got my answer.  Before the Ga. Southern win Valpo was ranked 93 and Detroit 94. The next day (today) Valpo is ranked 81st and Detroit stayed at 94.  Horizon firmed ranked 11th.

Was that Sagarin, because WN still has us at 104 and reatime at 105? If so it is of interest on methodology because in recent years our Sagarin number always seems to be 20 to 25 below the other two.

How many of you would argue with the statement that if we could match this years team against our 2010-11 team (with Homer as coach) that the 12-13 team would win 6 or 7 out of ten? I only bring this up because according to a recent Rpi Forecast if we were to win out then our ending RPI would only be 49. The 10-11 team had a rpi high of about 37(?) and even after the late season tailspin they finished in the 80's(?). So our 10-11 ending rpi is still much higher than todays Warren Nolan and RealTime numbers, and if the BB committee goes by their numbers we will not be given as good an opponent as we probably deserve. Thoughts?

[vu72]

I got my answer.  Before the Ga. Southern win Valpo was ranked 93 and Detroit 94. The next day (today) Valpo is ranked 81st and Detroit stayed at 94.  Horizon firmed ranked 11th.

Was that Sagarin, because WN still has us at 104 and reatime at 105? If so it is of interest on methodology because in recent years our Sagarin number always seems to be 20 to 25 below the other two.

How many of you would argue with the statement that if we could match this years team against our 2010-11 team (with Homer as coach) that the 12-13 team would win 6 or 7 out of ten? I only bring this up because according to a recent Rpi Forecast if we were to win out then our ending RPI would only be 49. The 10-11 team had a rpi high of about 37(?) and even after the late season tailspin they finished in the 80's(?). So our 10-11 ending rpi is still much higher than todays Warren Nolan and RealTime numbers, and if the BB committee goes by their numbers we will not be given as good an opponent as we probably deserve. Thoughts?

Yes, I was referring to Sagarin.  The Committee faithfully says that rpi isn't the sole deciding factor, and in that regard, I have found Sagarin to be a pretty good source for deciding seedings.  We'll see...

[truth219]

They also go by name recognition. I think we will get a great opponent. Considering we don't lose again. Which after the way we have been turning it up lately, I don't see happening. Kenney just needs to hit some 3s

[vuweathernerd]

Kenney just needs to hit some 3s

not his game. he's better driving to the bucket, believe it or not, than behind the arc.

[bbtds]

1/16/13 Wednesday

Northern Illinois   63
Ohio                    81
Kent                    80
Buffalo                 68
Missouri State     60
Indiana State      68
Loyola (IL)          59
UI-Chicago          61
New Mexico         79  OT
Boise State         74
Purdue                65 
Nebraska            56


1/17/13 Thursday - all times EST

North Dakota State at IUPUI 7:00 p.m.
Charleston at Georgia Southern 7:00 p.m.
Valpo at Detroit 7:00 p.m.
Kansas City at Oakland 7:00 p.m.
South Dakota at Fort Wayne 7:00 p.m.
Eastern Illinois at Murray State 8:00 p.m.
Cleveland State at Milwaukee 8:00 p.m.
Youngstown State at Green Bay 8:00 p.m.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Interesting that the teams that played tonight constitute 4 of the 5 biggest (current) weights on our RPI:
TEAM               Conf  Wt.   FutWt  W/L%  Exp%   Imp   FutImp
2) Kent St.        MAC   3.31   1.98   64.29   61.38   0.95   0.45
3) UIC              Horz   3.24   4.39   60.00   58.80   0.65   0.77
4) Northern Ill   MAC   3.23   1.94   16.67   25.44   -2.15   -0.95
5) Cleveland St Horz   3.13   4.35   50.00   44.85   0.00   -0.45
6) New Mexico   MWC   3.12   1.81   87.50   73.09   2.34   0.84

Kent, UIC, and UNM all won, so that should more than balance out UNI losing...but look at them...they're already such a drag (3rd only to Milwaukee and Chicago St)  yowza.

[agibson]

Kent, UIC, and UNM all won, so that should more than balance out UNI losing

I'd have thought so too, and maybe it does.  But, all the other smaller factors must add up.  Overall, it looks like we're down a couple of ticks.  Comparing realtimerpi (yesterday, more or less) to warrennolan (current, more or less) it's RPI 0.5314 #104 to 0.5305 #109 to #109.