Opponents' scoreboard

[Kyle321n]

many on this board said they wouldn't get any B1G wins at all or maybe 1 or 2.

I'd have been one of those.  I'm glad I was wrong...

...but that still doesn't mean A) they are any good and B) we should have lost that game.

I agree with all points...They're still not good, and Valpo should not have lost.

Yeah but now the loss doesn't look AS bad...

[valpotx]

I was also someone who thought they wouldn't win a game.  I will say that I am surprised and happy that they have won 5.  I know that their program is heading in the right direction, but we should have won by 10+ this year...

[truth219]

What do you think we would be ranked if we would have gone undefeated in the regular season. I know we lost 7 but going undefeated wouldn't have been impossible, unlikely yes but not impossible. I personally think we could be in the top 15 if not top 10 possibly top 5 unlikely number 1.

[valpotx]

If we ever went undefeated, it would probably be similar to what Murray State was ranked last year.  I believe they got into the 12-15 range?

[agibson]

What do you think we would be ranked if we would have gone undefeated in the regular season. I know we lost 7 but going undefeated wouldn't have been impossible, unlikely yes but not impossible. I personally think we could be in the top 15 if not top 10 possibly top 5 unlikely number 1.

Huh - funny hypothetical.  Our SOS would still be really mediocre, 179th in the nation, but the polls do love an undefeated team.

Our overall RPI (I'm pretty sure I've got it correct) would be 22nd in the nation, ahead of Belmont.  That's ignoring the effect of those seven changes on the RPI of other teams.

Going completely undefeated is really hard, but I suppose there are examples of teams from weak conferences that have come close.

This season the closest comparisons (high RPI teams with bad SOS) might include Gonzaga (28-2, RPI 7, SOS 78), MTSU (27-4, RPI 24, SOS 127), LA Tech (25-3, RPI 45, SOS 210).

LA Tech was briefly ranked.  Gonzaga's done OK, of course.

We'd have two solid wins: at New Mexico and at St. Louis (ranked ~12th and ~16th in the polls).

Probably top 20?  Probably not top 10?  But it's pretty hard to say what the novelty of being undefeated would do for us.  We'd definitely be getting a lot of attention.

The last "novelty" undefeated team I notice in the polls this year was Wyoming, briefly in the top 25 at 13-0 in early January.  They're now 16-12 (ouch!) with an RPI ranking of 74.

[agibson]

If we ever went undefeated, it would probably be similar to what Murray State was ranked last year.  I believe they got into the 12-15 range?

Ah - nice.  That's probably about right.  Their SOS was a little better, at 146th, but that included the tourney run.  So, a pretty reasonable comparison.

They had one conference loss (at home!), a couple more top-50 wins, maybe only one ranked win.  D1 record 27-1 going into the NCAA tournament.

[bbtds]

3/7/13 Thursday

Bethune-Cookman           61
Coppin State                    69
S. E. Missouri State          69
Eastern Kentucky             84
Southern Illinois-Carb      53
Missouri State                  61


3/8/13 Friday - all times EST

Georgia Southern vs Wofford (at Asheville, NC) 11:30 a.m.
*Youngstown State vs Wright State (at Valpo) 6:00 p.m.
Kent at Akron 7:00 p.m.
Missouri State vs Wichita State (at St. Louis) 7:05 p.m.
*UI-Chicago vs Green Bay (at Valpo) 8:30 p.m.
Eastern Kentucky vs Murray State (at Nashville) 9:00 p.m.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Eye on the Conference Tournaments (that are relevant)
Skipping the 1st round and/or play-in games
Friday, March 8
Team in bold is the team to root for

OVC
#4 Tennessee St
#1 Belmont

#3 Eastern Kentucky
#2 Murray State


WCC
#4 Santa Clara
#9 Loyola Marymount

#3 BYU
#6 San Diego

MVC
#1 Creighton
#9 DRAKE (as in Nick and the bad seeds)

#4 Evansville
#5 Indiana State

#3 Northern Iowa
#6 Illinois State

#2 Wichita State
#7 Missouri State

[valpocleveland]

3/8/13 Friday

Georgia Southern       .  at Asheville, NC
Wofford                      .
Youngstown State      .  at Valpo
Wright State              .
Kent                           .
Akron                         .
Missouri State            .  at St. Louis
Wichita State             .
UI-Chicago                 .  at Valpo
Green Bay                  .
Eastern Kentucky       .  at Nashville
Murray State              .


3/9/13 Saturday

LaSalle at Saint Louis 1:30 p.m.
Northern Illinois at Ball State 2:00 p.m.
Nebraska at Iowa 2:21 p.m.
New Mexico at Air Force 6:00 p.m.
IUPUI vs South Dakota State (at Sioux Falls, SD) 7:00 p.m.
Chicago State at Houston Baptist 8:05 p.m.

Other games will be added when the results of the Friday games are known

Did anyone think that pot would have an impact on our potential seed? I don't follow Akron that close but this guy is their starting PG averaging over 30 min a game. The drop off in stats to their backup PG is staggering.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9029837/akron-suspends-alex-abreu-following-marijuana-trafficking-arrest

[a3uge]

Did anyone think that pot would have an impact on our potential seed? I don't follow Akron that close but this guy is their starting PG averaging over 30 min a game. The drop off in stats to their backup PG is staggering.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9029837/akron-suspends-alex-abreu-following-marijuana-trafficking-arrest

Kent St vs Akron... if Akron loses, Valpo's RPI goes up with Kent St, Detroit goes down because they beat Akron.

Kent St's RPI impact of Valpo's is quite high, actually at 1.05. Akron's is 0.40 to Detroit. Both teams are around .10 to the other. So I believe either way, both teams RPI increases?

But if Akron loses two straight, they could probably wave an at-large goodbye. If they win their conference tourney, they'll be seeded higher than Valpo

[a3uge]

Kent St doing some work right now on the road. Going to write down the RPIs of Detroit and Valpo right before it gets update on rpiforecast :p


...


Kent St Wins!

Before:
58   Detroit   0.5691
62   Valparaiso   0.5656

After:
58   Detroit   0.5686
62   Valparaiso   0.5659

[jloose128]

Not an opponent of ours (this season), but Loyola Marymount, who went 8-22, 1-15 in the WCC, and ended the season on a 14 game losing streak, just won their third straight in three days.

Meanwhile, on the crazy play at the end of Indiana State-Evansville, the guys on ESPNU (Gaudio, Lunardi, and I don't remember the other guy's name) commented: did Homer Drew draw up this play!?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

re LMU: yeah and we didn't really want them too :/

we got upsets in the games we weren't wanting them and vice versa :?

Aye on the Conference Tournaments (that are relevant)
Skipping the 1st round and/or play-in games
Friday, March 8
Team in bold is/was the team to root for

OVC
#4 Tennessee St
#1 Belmont

#3 Eastern Kentucky
#2 Murray State HUZZAH!

WCC
#4 Santa Clara
#9 Loyola Marymount

#3 BYU
#6 San Diego HUZZAH!

MVC
#1 Creighton
#9 DRAKE (as in Nick and the bad seeds)

#4 Evansville
#5 Indiana State

#3 Northern Iowa
#6 Illinois State HUZZAH!

#2 Wichita State
#7 Missouri State

[ValpoHoops]

re LMU: yeah and we didn't really want them too :/

Why??? They are the worst team left in the WCC and would probably absolutely slot in behind us on the S-Curve, moving us up a spot. Also in the WCC right now, San Diego is up on BYU. They are 13-17 with an RPI of 178 and would finish behind us.

We want one of these two teams to somehow win that tournament.

In fact, we just want carnage in every conference tournament. The more bad teams that secure auto-bids, the more teams would slot in below us and bump us up seed lines. (I think that might have been mentioned...not sure  ...and I'm too damn lazy to look )

[vuweathernerd]

re LMU: yeah and we didn't really want them too :/

Why??? They are the worst team left in the WCC and would probably absolutely slot in behind us on the S-Curve, moving us up a spot. Also in the WCC right now, San Diego is up on BYU. They are 13-17 with an RPI of 178 and would finish behind us.

We want one of these two teams to somehow win that tournament.

In fact, we just want carnage in every conference tournament. The more bad teams that secure auto-bids, the more teams would slot in below us and bump us up seed lines. (I think that might have been mentioned...not sure  ...and I'm too damn lazy to look )

let's not forget though that this only works with the one-bid conferences. if it happens in a multi-bid league, it throws all kinds of wrenches into things.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Because Santa Clara is absolutely behind us too, and they match up better with Gonzaga!

They're the best of the teams that would be behind us on the S-curve.  LMU is too, but how long can their luck & legs hold out?

LMU lost 88 to FORTY THREE to the 'Zags.  At HOME.

[chef]

The OVC title game could very likely swing a seed for Valpo. If Murray State pulls off the upset, that adds an additional team into the field below them. Valpo also gets the slight RPI boost from the Murray St win. It might be all that's needed to put Valpo in as a 13. Oh, and two impressive Crusader victories are also a necessity.

[ValpoHoops]

re LMU: yeah and we didn't really want them too :/

Why??? They are the worst team left in the WCC and would probably absolutely slot in behind us on the S-Curve, moving us up a spot. Also in the WCC right now, San Diego is up on BYU. They are 13-17 with an RPI of 178 and would finish behind us.

We want one of these two teams to somehow win that tournament.

In fact, we just want carnage in every conference tournament. The more bad teams that secure auto-bids, the more teams would slot in below us and bump us up seed lines. (I think that might have been mentioned...not sure  ...and I'm too damn lazy to look )

let's not forget though that this only works with the one-bid conferences. if it happens in a multi-bid league, it throws all kinds of wrenches into things.

Again, Why?

The more bad auto-bid teams there are, the more we move up. An "extra" team from the WCC would knock out a bubble team, and have ZERO effect on us.

Someone used an example earlier:

These five teams are ranked in this order:
1. Michigan
2. North Carolina
3. Colorado
4. Valpo
5. Manhattan
6. Loyola Marymount


There are four bids available.

In option 1, Valpo wins their conference tournament and the top three teams are at-larges. Hence, Valpo would be the #4

In option 2, Loyola Marymount ALSO wins their conference tournament. This means Colorado doesn't have a spot as an at large, AND Valpo would be #3.


We need as many BAD teams to occupy the #16/15/14 lines as possible. It doesn't matter how many teams from that league might end up getting in...a bad team getting in simply knocks out an at-large bid (if that league was a multi bid, at least)...knock out an at large with a 4-26 team and everyone else slides up a line.

Seriously, we should be rooting for the worst teams to win every league.

[ValpoHoops]

Because Santa Clara is absolutely behind us too, and they match up better with Gonzaga!

I know what you're saying (and I had the idea that's what you meant all along, just had to say it )....personally, I think they can go ahead and engrave the trophy for Gonzaga. I don't see either of those teams beating Gonzaga (they beat Santa Clara by 43 two weeks ago...I sense a theme there)


All I really want...

[chef]

This is the easiest way to follow. Root against, Akron, Belmont, Bucknell, Davidson, La Tech, Middle Tennessee St, and SF Austin. Look for these teams each day in opponent's schedule (Apostle can you get these teams listed in there)? Thanks awesome. Remember root for the Crusaders and root against these other aforementioned squads.

[ValpoHoops]

This is the easiest way to follow. Root against, Akron, Belmont, Bucknell, Davidson, La Tech, Middle Tennessee St, and SF Austin. Look for these teams each day in opponent's schedule (Apostle can you get these teams listed in there)? Thanks awesome. Remember root for the Crusaders and root against these other aforementioned squads.

Yessir. When in doubt, root for the worse team. GO PENN STATE!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

(Apostle can you get these teams listed in there)?

Yeah, I'm not going to rain on bbtds' thing, but I will add the daily conf tourney look.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I on the Relevant Conference Tournaments
Skipping the 1st round and/or play-in games
Saturday, March 9
Team in bold is the team to root for

OVC
#1 Belmont
#2 Murray State

WCC
#1 Gonzaga
#9 Loyola Marymount

#6 San Diego
#2 St. Mary's

MVC
#1 Creighton
#5 Indiana State

#6 Illinois State
#2 Wichita State

Patriot
#1 Bucknell
#4 Army

#3 Lehigh
#2 Lafayette

Sun Belt
#1 Middle Tenn St
#8 UL-Lafayette

SoCon
#1 Davidson
#9 Ga Southern

America East
#1 Stony Brook
#8 Binghamton

Summit
#1 S Dak St
#8 IUPUI

#2 N Dak St
#7 UMKC

#3 Western Ill
#6 S Dak

[a3uge]

This is the easiest way to follow. Root against, Akron, Belmont, Bucknell, Davidson, La Tech, Middle Tennessee St, and SF Austin. Look for these teams each day in opponent's schedule (Apostle can you get these teams listed in there)? Thanks awesome. Remember root for the Crusaders and root against these other aforementioned squads.

Denver (64) and New Mexico State (59) winning the WAC over Louisiana Tech could also be problematic.

BYU in the WCC over Gonzaga would definitely push them above a potential Valpo tourney team. Better to have either Gonzaga or St Mary's winning that.

Root against teams you mentioned. Doubt Davidson is going to get a lower seed than 14.

Could cheer for Indiana St not to win MVC. That could result in a decent seed.

All this thinking and seed calculation might be a bit premature. Feels too much like counting outs in baseball or putting a magic number up.

[bbtds]

3/8/13 Friday

Georgia Southern       60                        at Asheville, NC
Wofford                      44
Youngstown State      59                          at Valpo
Wright State               66
Kent                           68
Akron                         64
Missouri State            59                        at St. Louis
Wichita State             69
UI-Chicago                 63                        at Valpo
Green Bay                  64
Eastern Kentucky       73                       at Nashville
Murray State              81


3/9/13 Saturday

Georgia Southern vs Davidson (at Asheville, NC) 12:00 p.m.
LaSalle at Saint Louis 1:30 p.m.
Northern Illinois at Ball State 2:00 p.m.
Nebraska at Iowa 2:21 p.m.
New Mexico at Air Force 6:00 p.m.
Wright State vs Detroit (at Valpo) 6:00 p.m.
IUPUI vs South Dakota State (at Sioux Falls, SD) 7:00 p.m.
Murray State vs Belmont (at Nashville) 7:00 p.m.
Chicago State at Houston Baptist 8:05 p.m.
Green Bay at Valpo 8:30 p.m.



Teams to root against

3/9/13 Saturday

Georgia Southern vs Davidson (at Asheville, NC) 12:00 p.m.
Army at Bucknell 4:30 p.m.
Murray State vs Belmont (at Nashville) 7:00 p.m.
Louisiana Tech at Denver 7:00 p.m.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Stephen F Austin 7:00 p.m.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Middle Tennessee State (at Hot Springs, AR) 7:30 p.m.