A look back / a look ahead

[vu72]

Apostle, you missed your true calling.  You would have made a great comedy writer in Hollywood. Seriously, some great analysis.  Now all we need to do is win!

[humbleopinion]

Apostle, I won't be able to order Chinese without thinking of your analysis!

[valpopal]

You had to bring it up: I will never get over that. It was the longest drive back from Indianapolis ever! However, maybe a psychoanalyst would suggest Bryce hasn't totally gotten over that as well, and it helps explain Bryce's fondness for slowing down the game and trying to eat up the clock when his team has a late lead. 

How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem.  right Bryce, wrong Valpo.  Yes.  Totally over that. Where were we?

[valporun]

LaPorte, if worse comes to worse, at least your RPIForecast post gave me some good belly laughs going into the new year. Just hope some of these teams actually prove to be something more than pathetic by February.

[Valpo89]

"How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem.  right Bryce, wrong Valpo.  Yes.  Totally over that. Where were we?"

I'll never get over it. Part of my immaturity, if you ask my wife.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Thanks all for the feedback.  Since it was pretty much a blog post already, I made it officially one and added pictures for some humor:

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/

[vuweathernerd]

well done, laporte. i got a pretty good laugh while also catching up on some of the non-con accomplishments and failings of the conference. 

[wh]

Thanks all for the feedback.  Since it was pretty much a blog post already, I made it officially one and added pictures for some humor:

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2012/12/31/horizon-league-the-non-con-2012/

Apostle's caption under the Detroit city seal:

i just feel it should be pointed out that the seal of the city of Detroit actually depicts the city on fire.

Detroit City Councilwoman JoAnn Watson recognizes that the city is on fire and offers up the perfect solution:

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/20264712/detroit-councilwoman-to-obama-we-supported-you-now-support-us

[LaPorteAveApostle]

sigh...democracy ultimately fails because you get the government you voted for.

on a happier note, though, i didn't realize how much funnier pictures make things.

but the blog doesn't seem to be a really big part of this site...is that by design or happenstance?

[HC]

Most, all, people go straight to this forum and skip right over the front page. Detroit was pretty close to knocking off #3 Syracuse if memory serves me right, which it might not.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Yeah, they lost by 4, after being down 40-21 at half.  St. John's was a closer game though--Det actually led with under 6 to go.

Syracuse was the game Jim Boeheim took leave of his senses and went all Bob Costas Piers Morgan in the postgame.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

And now, the look ahead.  All stats from RPI Forecast or RealTimeRPI, as of 11:50 PM, 1/1/13.

Just because we only have 9 teams doesn't mean we can't have 4 divisions:

The Platters Division: (the great pretenders)
Green Bay (5-7; RPI 235; SOS 221)
Conference Forecast: 7-9 (RPIForecast) 6-10 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast:  189 (UP 46)
SOS Forecast:  142 (UP 79)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (20% chance)
Toss-up:  @ Milwaukee (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  77% chance
Best-case:  11-5.  No, seriously.  The second "1" is actually supposed to be on the left side of the dash.
Worst-case: 3-13.  Bad.  But not historically awful.
Chance of ending over .500:  22.81%

Cleveland St (5-5; RPI 139; SOS 181)
Conference Forecast: 6-10 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast:  185 (DOWN 46)
SOS Forecast:  130 (UP 51)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (13% chance)
Toss-up:  vs. Loyola (52% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  89% chance
Best-case:  7-9.  If  McFadden petitions for another year of eligibility, maybe.
Worst-case: 2-14.  Adding the proverbial insults to injuries.
Chance of winning more than 10 conference games:  0.5%

Wright State (8-4; RPI 178; SOS 337)
Conference Forecast: 8-8 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
RPI Forecast:  137 (UP 41)
SOS Forecast:  209 (UP 128!)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (27% chance)
Toss-up:  vs. Valpo, @ CSU (55% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  96% chance
Best-case:  12-4.  They could be the best of all the mediocre schools in the league, wright?
Worst-case: 4-12.  Or it could be that playing the various community colleges of Ohio proves not to be the world's best SAT-HL prep class.
Chance of 20-win season:  1.64%

Youngstown St (5-5; RPI 191; SOS 252)
Conference Forecast: 9-7 (both)
RPI Forecast:  170 (UP 21)
SOS Forecast:  223 (UP 29)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (28% chance)
Toss-up:  @ WGB (45% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  96% chance
Best-case:  14-2.  Hey, I can't make this up.  I have a system.  Or rather, Jeff Sagarin does, and he lets me take it out on the weekends as long as I treat it real nice.
Worst-case: 6-10.  Well, that's more likely.
Chance of ending over .500:  62.68%


Meh-be division
Loyola (9-4; RPI 122; SOS 294)
Conference Forecast: 8-8 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): both to Valpo, plus @ everywhere but Milwaukee
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast:  157 (DOWN 35)
SOS Forecast:  249 (UP 45)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (22% chance)
Toss-up:  vs. UIC (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  94% chance
Best-case:  12-4.  Defense is for real.  Averkamp is avergood (read in Strong Bad voice).
Worst-case: 5-11.  Defense is actually an M. Night Shymalayan production: scary at first; then shown to be just an apparition.
Chance of ending over .500:  88.18%

Marlon Brando Division: (coulda be a contendah)
Detroit (6-5; RPI 98; SOS 89)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ everywhere but Milwaukee & WGB
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast:  65 (UP 33)
SOS Forecast:  78 (UP 11)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (22% chance)
Toss-up:  vs. UIC (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  94% chance
Best-case:  14-2.  The proverbial talented team finally puts it all together. They did beat Canisius.
Worst-case: 8-8.  The proverbial dysfunctional team makes Eli Holman look like he wasn't the freakin' problem, man.  They did lose to Bowling Green.
Chance of ending over .500:  88.18%

UIC (8-4; RPI 70; SOS 134)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (RPIForecast) 9-7 (RealTime)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ everywhere but Milwaukee and ?
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ everywhere but Milwaukee
RPI Forecast:  70 (same!?!)
SOS Forecast:  123 (UP 11)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (34% chance)
Toss-up:  @ Loyola (50% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  97% chance
Best-case:  14-2.  The class of the league, potentially: have beaten 2 top-100 teams already, and acquitted themselves better @ UNM than Valpo.
Worst-case: 9-7.  The class is actually GEO 104, "Rocks for Jocks".
Chance of winning out:  0.04%

Valparaiso (9-4; RPI 110; SOS 278)
Conference Forecast: 10-6 (both)
Likely losses (RPIForecast): @ UIC, @ Detroit, @ YSU, @ WSU (and two more they don't feel like sharing apparently)
Losses (RealTimeRPI): @ UIC, @ Detroit, @ YSU, @ CSU, @ WSU, @ Loyola
RPI Forecast:  97 (up 13)
SOS Forecast:  179 (up 99)
Toughest game:  @ Detroit, @ UIC (37% chance)
Toss-up:  @ Loyola (51% chance)
At home vs. Milwaukee:  97% chance
Best-case:  16-0.  This team, this league—could very well happen:  if they can win at Murray St., why not UIC or Detroit?  Or, contra RealTime:  how does that team lose 6 of 8 road games?
Worst-case: 9-7.  New parts don't continue to gel; injuries or delayed Mayan apocalypse, I suppose.
Fun fact:  Has 3 of conference's top 5 in rebounding rate, more than 100 min played (Capobianco #1, Broekhoff #3, Van Wijk #5)
Chance of winning out:  0.03%

D-II division
Milwaukee (2-10; RPI 330; SOS 269)
Conference Forecast: 2-14 (both)
Likely wins (RPIForecast): ?
Likely wins (RealTimeRPI): vs. Green Bay (and )
RPI Forecast:  331 (DOWN 1)
SOS Forecast:  216 (UP 53)
Toughest game:  @ Valpo (3% chance)
Toss-up:  the jump ball vs. CSU
At home vs. Milwaukee:  50% chance
Best chance: vs. CSU (32% chance)
Best-case:  By the standard I've been using, 0-16.  Let's say 3-13 just to be kind.
Worst-case: 0-16, easily. 
Chance of going 7-9:  0.01%
Chance of losing out:  10.8% (!)

AND Introducing PANTHERQUEST 2013:  The Quest To Be the Worst Team In Horizon League History.  Throughout the conference season we'll all be watching to find whether or not Milwaukee can at least be the best—at being the worst.  You may have thought Loyola was absolutely wretched last year (and they were), but at least they won a game amidst the 17 beatings they absorbed.  No, to be truly the worst, Milwaukee has to lose ALL their games just to tie 2003-04 Cleveland State (0-16). 

The Horizon League has also never had a team with RPI below 2004-05 Youngstown St (321 out of 327, or 1.8 percentile).  Milwaukee is 330/345, or 4.3 percentile—losing out would leave them 340/345, or 1.4% (RealTimeRPI says they are 335 now...).  In conference play, 2004-05 YSU was outscored by 13.2 ppg; RPI Forecast has UWM on track to be outscored by 13.0 ppg.  Can they pull off the Pupu Platter, the Trifecta of Awful?

STAY TUNED TO THE HORIZON LEAGUE NETWORK FOR THE ANSWER TO THESE AND ALL IMPORTANT QUESTIONS NOT INVOLVING THE WORD "FISCAL".

[LaPorteAveApostle]

SHORT ATTENTION SPAN THEATRE VERSION

(Breakdown for the TL;DR Crowd)

Due to R(p)ise
Green Bay up 46 (235 to 189)
WSU up 41 (178 to 137)
Detroit up 33 (98 to 65)
YSU up 21 (191 to 170)
Valpo up 13 (110 to 97)

Meh
UIC (no change at 70)
Milwaukee down 1 (330 to 331! Wheeee!)

Inches and Falling
CSU down 46 (139 to 185)
Loyola down 35 (122 to 157)

Prpidictions
Detroit 65
UIC 70
Valpo 97
WSU 137
Loyola 157
YSU 170
CSU 185
Green Bay 189
Milwaukee 331

RPI Forecast Results
1.   Valparaiso 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 10-6
4.   YSU 9-7
5.   Loyola 8-8
   WSU 8-8
7.   Green Bay 7-9
8.   CSU 6-10
9.    Milwaukee 2-14

Yeah, I'm aware that's statistically impossible, but I can't help it  that RPI Forecast rounds all the darn time.

A rising tide lifts all SOS boats, especially the ones that were almost sunk
WSU up 128 (337 to 209)
Valpo up 99 (278 to 179)
Green Bay up 79 (221 to 142)
Milwaukee up 53 (269 to 216)
CSU up 51 (181 to 130)
Loyola up 45 (294 to 249)
YSU up 29 (252 to 223)
Detroit up 11 (89 to 78)
UIC up 11 (134 to 123)

whew! now let's HOOP IT UP people!  before bigDwsu scoffs and says "predictions?  i spit on your predictions because we have JULIUS MAYS!!! HAHAHaa--what? well @#%"

[HC]

Green Bay is better then most are giving them credit for, in the same way UIC is worse then what many think. If I hadn't bought a new house last night I'd wager a dinner that UIC finishes tied with or behind Green Bay. I suppose I could wager a fish fry.

Btw, I laughed pretty hard reading that last part. No offense there bigD

[vuweathernerd]

i find it amusing that the uic part says they likely lose both to valpo, but then the valpo section says we lose at uic. editorial oversight somewhere?

[valporun]

nerd, are you suggesting that the RPI Forecast was written by someone at Bleacher Report?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Thanks, HC.


Looking at the numbers again, both sites predict a VU/UIC split.  Sorry about that.

[vuweathernerd]

nerd, are you suggesting that the RPI Forecast was written by someone at Bleacher Report?

i made no such suggestion, but you can read into it however you want.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  11-5.  10-5 to the eyes of RPI.  (seriously. try it: "rippy"?  trés cool.)

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  MSU (W) Loyola (@#$&) CSU (W)

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  121 (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html UP 55!
RPIForecast:   113  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html UP 61!
Sagarin:        93 with a rating of 77.86 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm UP 18!

Average the 3 and come up with 109, or up 45 places. Basically we're back to where we were on the second update (post 8 on this thread) ... yea?

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
238 (RealTimeRPI) up 80
246 (RPIForecast) up 85
299 (Sagarin) up 31

Average of 271, or up 55 slots. 

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 18-11, (9-4 out-of conf; 9-7 Horizon) same record, but one more conf loss than last time
RPIForecast:  19-10 (10-6 conf) one more win than last time
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 105 and SOS of 180.

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We have an 0.03% chance of running the table!

% of a win next week:
@ UIC 39% (-3.2 pts); RealTime:  UIC 70-59
@ UWM 85% (+11.9 pts); RealTime: VU 71-64

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  16-5.  15-5 to the eyes of RPI.  ("rippy".  it saves time, too. think about it.)

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  @UIC, @Milw, @Det, vs. WSU, vs. GB (all WINS)

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  85 (of 347 D-I) RealTime UP 36!
RPIForecast:   86  RPIForecast UP 27!
Sagarin:        82 with a rating of 78.98 Sagarin UP 13!
ESPN / BPI:  72 with a rating of 68.4 ESPN BPI

Average the 4 and come up with 81, or up 28 places. Obviously as the systems get more data there is far less discrepancy between them (compare with earlier posts, above, or just take my word for it).

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
234 (RealTimeRPI) up 4
230 (RPIForecast) up 16
233 (Sagarin) up 66
135 (ESPN BPI)

Average of 208, or up 63 slots.  And you wonder why I prefer BPI???

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 20-9, (9-4 out-of conf; 11-5 Horizon) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast:  21-8 (12-4 conf) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 78 (up 28!) and SOS of 185 (down 5).

It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 5-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 6-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).

This is why computers will never take over the world.  (Also because Macs have no "delete" key.)

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We now have an 2.83% chance of running the rest of conference table!
DOUBLE-BONUS:  That means there's a greater chance of going 9-0 than 2-7 or worse (2.43%).

% of a win next couple weeks:
@ YSU 61% (+3.2 pts); RealTime:  YSU 68-67
vs. UWM 93% (+16.2 pts); RealTime: VU 81-55
vs. UIC 86% (+11.7); RealTime:  VU 73-62.

Interesting footnote:  Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask?  He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.

HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games.  He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage. 

This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD.  It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy.  So it would have to be Bogan or Kenney, except that the former is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference).  Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference).  Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes?  Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?

And how interesting is that that something like this affects so much else?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So of COURSE RPI Forecast updates their numbers moments after I wrote this. (I have now updated everything above, so.)

Life.

[vu72]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  16-5.  15-5 to the eyes of RPI.  ("rippy".  it saves time, too. think about it.)

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  @UIC, @Milw, @Det, vs. WSU, vs. GB (all WINS)

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  85 (of 347 D-I) RealTime UP 36!
RPIForecast:   86  RPIForecast UP 27!
Sagarin:        82 with a rating of 78.98 Sagarin UP 13!
ESPN / BPI:  72 with a rating of 68.4 ESPN BPI

Average the 4 and come up with 81, or up 28 places. Obviously as the systems get more data there is far less discrepancy between them (compare with earlier posts, above, or just take my word for it).

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
234 (RealTimeRPI) up 4
230 (RPIForecast) up 12
233 (Sagarin) up 66
135 (ESPN BPI)

Average of 208, or up 63 slots.  And you wonder why I prefer BPI???

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 20-9, (9-4 out-of conf; 11-5 Horizon) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast:  21-8 (12-4 conf) two more wins than last time!
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 78 (up 28!) and SOS of 185 (down 5).

It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 4-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 5-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).

This is why computers will never take over the world.  Also because Macs have no "delete" key.

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We now have an 2.83% chance of running the rest of conference table!
DOUBLE-BONUS:  That means there's a greater chance of going 9-0 than 2-7 or worse (2.43%).

% of a win next couple weeks:
@ YSU 61% (+3.2 pts); RealTime:  YSU 68-67
vs. UWM 93% (+16.2 pts); RealTime: VU 81-55
vs. UIC 86% (+11.7); RealTime:  VU 73-62.

Interesting footnote:  Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask?  He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.

HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games.  He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage. 

This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD.  It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy.  So it would have to be Bogan, except that he is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference).  Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference).  Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes?  Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?

And how interesting is that that something like this affects so much else?

Thanks!  It is fasinating.  I'm exhausted thinking about all the work you put in on it!

[agibson]

Also because Macs have no "delete" key.

Is delete on a PC like backspace, but deletes the character to the right?

The mac has a "delete" key (at least this one), but it deletes the character to the left of the cursor, which function might be handled by "backspace" on a PC keyboard?  That key, on a mac, sits where the "backspace" key does on a PC.

So, yeah, on a mac you can delete to the left, but not so easily to the right.  Is that an important missing feature?

[wh]

It should be noted that for some reason RealTime thinks we'll go 4-4 the rest of the way, which means it is D-U-M dum (losses @YSU, @WSU, @Loyola, and @WGB), and for some other dumb reason RPI Forecast thinks we'll go 5-3 the rest of the way, even though it NEVER gives us less than a 50% win chance (lowest is @WGB, 51%).

Very informative!

You might want to add 1 to the win column. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So, yeah, on a mac you can delete to the left, but not so easily to the right.  Is that an important missing feature?

I don't know.  I own Macs