A look back / a look ahead

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Very informative!

You might want to add 1 to the win column. 

Good eye!  Corrected, and thanks.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

hanks!  It is fasinating.  I'm exhausted thinking about all the work you put in on it!

Thanks for the kind words.  Good to know it matters!!

[oklahomamick]

My opinion is that we are playing well and some of our best basketball of the year.  With that said, I wish we didn't have a week off.  We are hot right now.  I wish we were playing this weekend in order to take advantage of our hot hand. 

[VULB#62]

Just got back from a wireless vacation  (i.e., I didn't have any internet).  Left the day before the Detroit game and the first thing I went to upon my return was to check the Detroit result.  Cool!  Was even happier to see the win string growing as well.

But then I reviewed all the  box scores and noted that Capo's minutes seem to be really drying up. Any reason beyond not playing well?

[HC]

He gets in foul trouble quickly, I don't know if he wasn't feeling 100% but he just looks slow.

It'd be nice if he could play a few more minutes to spell KVW, who thankfully has not been in any foul trouble.

[valpopal]

Just got back from a wireless vacation  (i.e., I didn't have any internet).  Left the day before the Detroit game and the first thing I went to upon my return was to check the Detroit result.  Cool!  Was even happier to see the win string growing as well.

But then I reviewed all the  box scores and noted that Capo's minutes seem to be really drying up. Any reason beyond not playing well?

In the Detroit game, Bobby played only 9 minutes because he was ejected. (However, that turned out to be a benefit because his ejection was the turning point in the game and Kevin got more minutes to achieve a career high, which won the game.) In the Wright State game, Bobby played only 5 minutes, but he had 3 fouls in that short time and he seemed to have difficulty with the match-ups. In the Green Bay game, Bobby played 16 minutes, which is above his average, and he did well, getting 7 points and 5 rebounds while shooting 3-5, including a 3-point shot. I don't see any reason for concern.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Interesting footnote:  Our BPI is higher, I am reasonably sure, simply because of LaVonte. How, you might ask?  He is considered one of our top players by BPI/ESPN, and the fact that he was missing for nine games discounts all those losses in that span.

HOWEVA, he is considered one of our top players simply because he is in top 5 in MPG and has now played half our games.  He is JUST a tenth of a minute ahead of KVW, and of course as we all know KVW is picking up steam, and LVD might be losing a bit of minutage. 

This inevitable passing would actually result in us taking a hit on BPI that would put us down, perhaps around where everyone else ranks us, UNLESS someone else falls out of the top 5 and behind LVD.  It's extremely unlikely to be Rowdy or Buggy.  So it would have to be Bogan or Kenney, except that the former is playing even MORE lately (season average, 24.5; 27.3 MPG in-conference), and ditto for Kenney (season average 24.2; 27.4 MPG in-conference).  Meanwhile, LVD is playing less (season average, 23.4; 20.6 MPG in-conference).  Perhaps Boggs back at full strength could cut into Bogan's or Kenney's minutes?  Or simply LVD being fully healthy and more integrated into what we're doing?

Interesting that now, the MPG has shaken out this way, due to some WEIRD injury- or blowout- or both-related statlines since i left like this:
@YSU Kenney, 6 min
vs. MILW Van Wijk, 13 min
vs. UIC Van Wijk, 6 min
@CSU Dority, 7 min

Top 5:  (objective:  keep Dority there, although you'd think BPI would be used mostly for BracketBuster at this point)
Broekhoff 31.8
Buggs 27.1
Bogan 25.1
Kenney 23.4
Dority 23.1
KVW 22.6

[vu72]

As the season goes on, it becomes more clear to me how valuable Erik and Will are to this team, and how hard it will be to replace Erik.

The only player who I can think of who had anywhere the shear speed of Erik is Jaryd Loyd.  Erik is faster but not as good of a shot.  Still, he is as good of a on ball defender as we have ever had. Will has proven to be the next best on ball defender and has found his shot. These two will be next to impossible to replace. Expect less next year as our kids mature.  this is OUR year.

Does anyone remember ANYBODY who could go coast to coast like Erik??  Truly impressive and very big time!

I have know idea about Keith Carter ot Lexus Williams, but Dority is no Erik Buggs.  If he is the point guard next year we will have problems, or maybe, I'm just spoiled by the talent and incredible hard work of one Erik Buggs.

[talksalot]

Looking ahead at the schedules for the HL...I think GB has the easiest schedule... despite the fact that they are horrible on the road...They could sweep out...I Hope the March 2nd games are meaningless for VU... Detroit @ UIC 1pm Central, Youngstown State @ Wright State 1pm Central... and VU @ Green Bay at 2pm Central. (Oh, CSU@LUC also at 3pm).

Valpo
@ WSU
H UDM
@ LUC
H YST
@ GB


Detroit
H CSU
@ VU
H LUC
@UIC

Wright
H VU
@ CSU
@UIC
H YST

GB
@ CSU
@YST
@UWM
H VU

Youngstown
H UWM
H GB
@ VU
@WSU

UIC
@ LUC
@ UWM
H WSU
H UDM

CSU
@ UDM
H GB
H UWM
H WSU
@ LUC


Loyola
@ UWM
H UIC
H VU
@ UDM
H CSU

UWM
H LUC
@ YST
@CSU
H UIC
H GB

[wh]

Looking ahead at the schedules for the HL...I think GB has the easiest schedule... despite the fact that they are horrible on the road...They could sweep out...I Hope the March 2nd games are meaningless for VU... Detroit @ UIC 1pm Central, Youngstown State @ Wright State 1pm Central... and VU @ Green Bay at 2pm Central. (Oh, CSU@LUC also at 3pm).

Valpo
@ WSU
H UDM
@ LUC
H YST
@ GB


Detroit
H CSU
@ VU
H LUC
@UIC

Wright
H VU
@ CSU
@UIC
H YST

GB
@ CSU
@YST
@UWM
H VU

Youngstown
H UWM
H GB
@ VU
@WSU

UIC
@ LUC
@ UWM
H WSU
H UDM

CSU
@ UDM
H GB
H UWM
H WSU
@ LUC


Loyola
@ UWM
H UIC
H VU
@ UDM
H CSU

UWM
H LUC
@ YST
@CSU
H UIC
H GB

As challenging as our final 5 games are, we should be favored in all 5.  If we play to our potential (which we seem to be getting closer to), we very well could run the table.  Not saying we will, but I do think we are peaking at the right time. 

[78crusader]

Based on the remaining schedules, I'd say our biggest game this week is against Wright State, not Detroit.

Paul

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  19-6.  18-6 to the eyes of RPI.  ("rippy".  i see you out there, talksalot.  cheers.)

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  L @YSU, & WINS vs. Milw, vs. UIC, @CSU

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  88 (of 347 D-I) RealTime down 3
--Of course, consider the source.  They still haven't updated the CSU game yet! (at least they predicted a one-point valpo win.)  But should we really be surprised?  This site blows.  How much, you ask?  SO MUCH SO that they are still PREDICTING a FOUR-POINT WIN for the IONA AT VALPO GAME FROM TWENTY-THREE MONTHS AGO.  Don't believe me?  Fine.  Don't click here then.
RPIForecast:   82  RPIForecast UP 4!
Sagarin:        80 with a rating of 78.98  Sagarin UP 2!
ESPN / BPI:  71 with a rating of 68.3 ESPN BPI UP 1!

Average the 4 and come up with 80, or up 1 place, good considering RealTimeRPI still thinks Homer is the coach.

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
226 (RealTimeRPI) up 8
230 (RPIForecast) same
220 (Sagarin) up 13
151 (ESPN BPI) down 16

Average of 207, or up one slot.

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 22-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) one more win than last time!
RPIForecast:  22-8 (12-4 conf) same
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 73 (up 5!) and SOS of 164 (up 21).  Largely up to the BracketBuster, it would seem for the latter.

SPEAKING OF?
Well, glad that you mentioned it.  RealTime says we'll beat EKU 74-68 and RPIForecast gives us a 79% chance of winning--better chance than in ALL our remaining games save vs. YSU (83%).  And to those of you that saw the last time we faced YSU, this is why computers will never take over the world.  (Also because Macs have no right mouse button.)

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We now have a 7.21% chance of running the regular season table!
DOUBLE-BONUS:  That means there's less of a chance of going 6-0 than going 2-4 or worse (11.21%).

% of a win next ten daze:
@ WSU 57% (+1.9 pts); RealTime:  WSU 71-66 (i hate it, but they were the ones that were right about YSU too)
vs. Detroit 62% (+3.5 pts); RealTime: VU 74-65
@ Loyola 63% (+3.5 pts); RealTime:  VU 69-68.

HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE:  the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys:  joy!!! (in Sven Hoëk voice)

Probability of auto-bid
Valparaiso 47.87% (projected record with greatest probability:  24-8, 23.36%)
Detroit 31.70% (projected record with greatest probability:  19-12, 17.12%)
Green Bay 8.55% (projected record with greatest probability:  16-15, 12.36%)
WSU 8.27% (projected record with greatest probability:  19-11, 14.66%)
YSU 1.26% (projected record with greatest probability:  15-14, 15.81%)
UIC 0.83% (projected record with greatest probability:  17-14, 14.00%)
Loyola 0.71% (projected record with greatest probability:  15-15, 20.56%)
CSU 0.14% (projected record with greatest probability:  11-17, 28.56%)
Milwaukee 0.00% (projected record with greatest probability:  4-26, 28.89%) seriously couldn't make that up. ten thousand computer scenarios couldn't find ONE in which Jordan Aaron went all Jordan Michael on the HL.

A GUY CAN DREAM CAN'T HE:
Running the table the whole rest of the way to the NCAA (poetry) would give us an RPI of 53. 
And there's a 3.86% chance of it happening.

[talksalot]

OK, this will help with the WSU game tomorrow...
Game #26 on the year...

Over the past 20 years, we are 8-1 at home, 8-3 on the road, 16-4 overall.
HL Games...  We beat CSU by 18 last year on the road, we beat WSU at home 2 years ago by 2 (On February 12th), and we beat UIC 3 years ago by 1 at home.

Speaking of games played on February 12, over the past 20 years, we have played 7 times on 2/12... and we are 6-1, lone loss coming in 04-05 @ IUPUI, we are 4-0 at home and 2-1 on the road.

[historyman]

good considering RealTimeRPI still thinks Homer is the coach.

That is so stupid. That's like saying Frank Haith is still head coach at Miami.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

That is so stupid. That's like saying Frank Haith is still head coach at Miami.

Well, they didn't SAY it in so many words. I was implying that if they were still awaiting the results of the IONA game, then they must just be that behind the times.

Also I was just trying to be funny.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Looking ahead to seeding:

Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences outside of the top 10.  The question:  are they higher than Valpo?  (According to rpiforecast.)  If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney?  If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?



Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15.
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.

Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers:  we're safely higher than 13 teams--nay, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and we are about equal to SFAustin.

CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:


Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) rates SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 right now.  Passing them would be the difference between playing Ohio St (lowest 3) and Arizona (highest 4).  Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

[chef]

Great post Apostle. Very helpful.

[historyman]

So lets hope we get it down to a





or a

[vu72]

So basicly your rpi agrees with the bpi and not far off the Sagarin analysis.  If we win out we are a 12.

Remember, the committee counts what you have done of late much more than early season stuff.  Our falls happened early and on the road.  Keep winning and keep improving our chances for a win in the tourney.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Teams to root against:  conference leaders that are in our RPI neighborhood
where is that exactly around 83.
Coming off of you know darn well go away
Toughest game left @ GB (45%)
Chance of winning out 19.53%
Biggest threat apparently foul trouble.  also flagrant elbows and bad tattoos.

--Davidson (77)
Coming off of? 10 straight wins over their horrible horrible conference
How horrible is it? There are 2 other teams ranked higher than 240 (C of Charleston, 147, Elon, 162)
That's pretty horrible?  Oh you haven't heard the worst of it.
Toughest game left? @ Elon (68%!)
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 48.31%
Biggest threat? College of Charleston (147ish)?
Worst of it?  THIS TEAM LOST TO MILWAUKEE, PEOPLE, THEY SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED WITHIN 1000 KM OF THE BIG DANCE

the first result for google imaging "davidson wisconsin milwaukee -harley".  totally serious.


--Stephen F Austin (89)
Coming off of? a tough loss at SE-LA, the Loyola of the Southland
Wait check that? yeah, you're right, while their RPI is similar to Loyola, they're actually 4th best in their horrible horrible conference.
Well at least?  The Southland is less horrible than whatever Davidson's in.
The Southern Conference?  Yeah, that was feigned ignorance to convey distaste, but whatever. 
Toughest game left  their BB @ Long Beach (48% win chance).  Otherwise given no less than a 72% chance, although one of those games is hosting NW St, their only other conference loss (and the only other decent team in their horrible horrible conference)
But what about?  Orval Faubus Oral Roberts?  OK, they're not that indecent.  Think Oakland or GB.
Chance of losing at least 1 more: 71.4%

Most people are unaware that the Father Of Texas actually invented basketball, 50 years before Naismith, only BIGGER and BETTER than basketball because texas obviously.


--South Dakota State U (67)
Coming off of? 11 wins outta their last 12 over their rapidly deteriorating apartment building of a conference
Is it like, Cabrini-Green bad? What are you, white?  That's probably like the only complex you know in Chicago.  And it doesn't even exist any more.
Oh good. It gave me the shivers.  I guess I kind of understand.  That's how I feel when I proofread truth219's posts.
Toughest game left? BB @ Murray St (44%!)
Dear Racers: your winning this game would work so well for us on so many different levels.  Yes.  Well, 2 levels, anyway.
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 69.53%
Biggest conference threat? Western Illinois or Oakland (107ishes)

the only common hit from searching both "cabrini-green" as well as "state of wisconsin-milwaukee basketball"


--Bucknell (60)
Coming off of? A not-great road loss to #196 Lafayette.
How horrible is it? Eh, the Patriot League's not that bad.  If it were it would have "South" in its title.
Toughest game left? @ Lehigh (39%)
COME ON MOUNTAIN HAWKS!!!1! you're telling me.
Chance of losing at least 1 more? 69.59%
Biggest conference threat? said Hawks (they lost at home to them. so.  there's that.)

yeah this is the wrong sport, i couldn't help posting this for the slogan at the bottom like for reals the only way this could be any better were if the cigarette were in gary sinise's mouth also the girl's

[valpotx]

Most people are unaware that the Father Of Texas actually invented basketball, 50 years before Naismith, only BIGGER and BETTER than basketball because texas obviously.


Well, of course!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, of course!

That was largely for you, yes

[valpotx]

We originally used 12 ft tall baskets, but had to bring it down for the rest of you 

[valporun]

We originally used 12 ft tall baskets, but had to bring it down for the rest of you 

To use the line from HOOSIERS, "I didn't know they grew 'em that small down on the farm."

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Brief update:  Bucknell did return the favor to Lehigh and knocked them off at home.  They now look poised to win out (76.25% chance thereof) and have a high enough RPI that they would have to somehow lose one and we win out INCLUDING our tourney to be par.

The good news is we can always root against them in the conference tourney.