A look back / a look ahead

[talksalot]

THAT would be a pleasure... my sister is a Bucknell grad and I would not hear the end of it.  I will be going to the Spring Baseball game on March 14th against those dirty bisons in Winter Haven with serious bragging rights on the line.  As I say to her:  Go Bucknell... I don't care where... Just GO!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  21-7.  20-7 to the eyes of RPI.  ("rippy".  i see you out there, talksalot.  you can't be alone for long.)

WHAT'S HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST TIME YOU ACTUALLY UPDATED THIS:  W @ WSU, L vs Det KITTENS! KITTENZ-FOR-ALL, W @ LUC

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT US NOW? 
RealTimeRPI:  80 (of 347 D-I) RealTime UP 8!
RPIForecast:   80  RPIForecast UP 2!
Sagarin:        77 with a rating of 79.34  Sagarin UP 3!
ESPN / BPI:  73 with a rating of 68.3 ESPN BPI down 2

Average the 4 and come up with 78, or up 2 places!

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? 
191 (RealTimeRPI) up 37!
191 (RPIForecast) up 39!
193 (Sagarin) up 27!
138 (ESPN BPI) up 13

Average of 178, or up 29 slots!  This late in the game I don't have an explanation for this type of early-season jump; can it solely be due to our own jump from playing Detroit and two more road games?  BB doesn't count yet, of course...or it could also be due to all of those people ahead of us continuing to play their HORRIBLE HORRIBLE CONFERENCE MATES some more and falling.

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 22-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) same
RPIForecast:  22-8 (12-4 conf) same
RPIForecast still projects an end-season RPI of 73 (same) and SOS of 164 (same).

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We now have a 31.27% chance of running the regular season table!
OUT-OF-THE-BONUS:  That keeps getting higher because we have fewer games to play, genius.

% of a win next ten+ daze:
vs EKU 79% (+8.9 pts); RealTime:  VU 73-67
vs. YSU 86% (+11.7 pts); RealTime: VU 77-61
@ GB 46% (-1.2 pts); RealTime:  GB 71-68.  For those of you who think, 'eh, we can lose this one as long as we've beaten YSU', I point out that this is as much of a must-win too, because we're fighting for our seeding lives.

HAHA MORE BONUS FACTAGE:  the CONFERENCE TOURNEY!
RPIForecast now comes in two flavors, with or without conference tourneys:  joy!!! (in Sven Hoëk voice)

Probability of auto-bid
Valparaiso 46.66% (projected record with greatest probability:  24-8, 32.26%)
Detroit 38.29% (projected record with greatest probability:  20-11, 26.25%)
Green Bay 9.91% (projected record with greatest probability:  18-14, 12.49%)
WSU 3.56% (projected record with greatest probability:  20-12, 12.96%)
YSU 0.58% (projected record with greatest probability:  14-15, 24.71%)
Loyola 0.45% (projected record with greatest probability:  15-15, 20.56%)
UIC 0.44% (projected record with greatest probability:  17-14, 23.89%)
CSU 0.10% (projected record with greatest probability:  11-17, 31.81%)
Milwaukee 0.00% (projected record with greatest probability:  5-25, 28.89%)
seriously still can't make that up. ten thousand computer scenarios still can't find ONE in which Rob Jeter goes Derek Jeter on the HL.

So...you can check this against last time's or take it on faith here:  our chances went down slightly, Detroit's went up significantly, and GB's a little.  Everyone else pretty much went down, although Loyola passed UIC (everyone else's chance of winning: 5.13%; last time: 11.21%, although most of that is WSU being exposed for who they really are--from 8.27 to 3.56%).  Note to those in ESPN Sec 140:  don't bet "the field" in the HL tourney. 

A GUY CAN DREAM CAN'T HE:
Winning away / each game that we play / the whole rest of the way / to the NCAA (now that's poetry):
a rippy of 65. down 12 due to losing to Det 
And there's a 16.34% chance of it happening.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

SeedCast:  the Sequel

Here: my spreadsheet of the current conference leader of all the conferences below us. 
The question:  are they higher than Valpo? 

I weight RPI * 3 and also average Sagarin and BPI to simulate committee considerations like "last 12 D1 games", etc.  If so, what are their chances of winning the conference tourney?  If not them, are there other teams in the conference that could be ranked above us were they to get the autobid?



Roughly speaking:
--If you're higher than 6 teams, you're a 15. (Why: because 4 16 seeds get "1st round" games + 2 more go right to "2nd rd")
--If you're higher than 10, you're a 14.
--If you're higher than 14, you're a 13.

Cutting the suspense, if you're allergic to sheets with numbers:  we're safely higher than 13 teams--nay, conferences, because it won't matter who wins them--they won't pass us unless we pretty much lose all our remaining games but still recover and win the tournament; and while we are ahead of S F Austin, Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance both pick them ahead of us.

Because I'm a Homer homer, I ignore that fact and put them where they belong.  Also because this moves us up a seed.

CURRENT SEEDCAST IS:


Cross-checking my work, ESPN (via BPI) now rates SFA as a 14 and us as a 13 right now (opp:  Pittsburgh). 
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament
Crashing the Dance has, as mentioned, SFA as the lowest 13 and us as the highest 14 (opp:  Syracuse)
http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

[agibson]

I was hoping there would be a half-decent chance of an Illinois State winning the MVC tournament, or UTEP or someone in CUSA, while keeping an RPI worse than ours.

Doesn't look very likely.  So, it does seem probable that the 16's, 15's, (and hopefully 14's!) will come from conferences worse than ours.

A 13 seed is 50% better than a 14 seed (and a 12 seed almost 50% better than a 13).  But, it seems _really_ important to stay off that 15 line.  A 14 seed is, historically, almost three times as likely to win a game.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

aHA!  I was hoping that someone might say that.

SO.  I have taken the liberty of making a further chart, which I call the

"RootFer"

This new invention gives you all the conferences that matter:  conferences with one or two bids that have teams better than us, or about as good, that need to be knocked off For the Sake of the Uhlan.

The conference in question is followed by a column with the leader (and teams that are also bad ideas because they would also be ahead of us).  The middle column is teams that would be better but still not for certain sure because they would probably pass us if they won. 

Thus, the fourth column:  THE GREAT WHITE HOPE. This is the best team in the conference that it is also safe to root for!  Finally we have when they hold their tourney, in chronological order for easy reference.  I'll update it weekly also.

[Kyle321n]

I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched.  Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!

WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.

If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.

[valpotx]

Murray State would be seeded below us in any situation, as they are around 100 in all RPI categories. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched.  Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.

Your impression is a mistaken one.  Harvard is 9-1 but Princeton is 7-2.  Since they go head-to-head, all Princeton needs to do is not lose otherwise; if Harvard loses no other game then they will end up tied, and a one-game playoff will determine who will get the bid.

http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!

Murray State winning out would not make them higher than we are because we would have to be winning as well to make the Dance.  Since they are 30+ behind us, plus we beat them head to head, I don't see a problem.  (EKU could be a problem, seeing as they beat us 'by 30'.)

The larger point to make here is that at-large bids do not matter to us, because we are not in line for one.  There is a finite number of them (37) and the lowest of them are seeded as far down as 12, historically.  We are unfortunately not likely to make it that high.

SO, whether Belmont wins or doesn't win, they are probably still in (and probably higher than us).  BUT what happens if they LOSE is that it puts someone in (probably, hopefully) LOWER than us.  We have to have as many teams BELOW us as possible to get a higher seed.  This means we need selected teams to pull upsets to push us into the high 13, low 12 range (depending on number of upsets).

See my above post on conference leaders.  Right now we're better than THIRTEEN teams, but among them, NOT the OVC leader.  We WOULD be higher than them if it weren't Belmont. SO if that "belmont" line becomes EKU or MSU, then we are better than FOURTEEN teams.  Get it?

Belmont losing the conference tourney becomes Missouri's problem, for example.

WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.

CUSA is projected as a one-bid league, per Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance.  Memphis losing would HELP us because it would put someone else in the dance who's LOWER than us (hopefully not S Miss though).

The WCC could be a two-bid league, but again, it doesn't matter to us! As long as someone other than Gonzaga, St. Mary, or BYU wins, we're golden again.

If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.

That's possible, although I think Missouri's done enough to warrant selection.  But again, that doesn't matter.  Here it's much more dicey because at least 3 teams, and probably 3 more, could knock off Florida and still be ahead of us.  But someone from the bottom half of the league (A&M) could do so and still be below us.

Although with a "name" conference, you would think that the conference tournament winner would get the "bump" you speak of.  But the SEC is not that great at basketball, particularly this year.

Mostly I put the SEC on here to underscore that fact, not because I hope Alabama pulls off the SHOCKER.

Do you see the larger point I'm making, that we need darker horses in the tourney?

[Kyle321n]

I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched.  Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.

Your impression is a mistaken one.  Harvard is 9-1 but Princeton is 7-2.  Since they go head-to-head, all Princeton needs to do is not lose otherwise; if Harvard loses no other game then they will end up tied, and a one-game playoff will determine who will get the bid.

http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!

Murray State winning out would not make them higher than we are because we would have to be winning as well to make the Dance.  Since they are 30+ behind us, plus we beat them head to head, I don't see a problem.  (EKU could be a problem, seeing as they beat us 'by 30'.)

The larger point to make here is that at-large bids do not matter to us, because we are not in line for one.  There is a finite number of them (37) and the lowest of them are seeded as far down as 12, historically.  We are unfortunately not likely to make it that high.

SO, whether Belmont wins or doesn't win, they are probably still in (and probably higher than us).  BUT what happens if they LOSE is that it puts someone in (probably, hopefully) LOWER than us.  We have to have as many teams BELOW us as possible to get a higher seed.  This means we need selected teams to pull upsets to push us into the high 13, low 12 range (depending on number of upsets).

See my above post on conference leaders.  Right now we're better than THIRTEEN teams, but among them, NOT the OVC leader.  We WOULD be higher than them if it weren't Belmont. SO if that "belmont" line becomes EKU or MSU, then we are better than FOURTEEN teams.  Get it?

Belmont losing the conference tourney becomes Missouri's problem, for example.

WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.

CUSA is projected as a one-bid league, per Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance.  Memphis losing would HELP us because it would put someone else in the dance who's LOWER than us (hopefully not S Miss though).

The WCC could be a two-bid league, but again, it doesn't matter to us! As long as someone other than Gonzaga, St. Mary, or BYU wins, we're golden again.

If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.

That's possible, although I think Missouri's done enough to warrant selection.  But again, that doesn't matter.  Here it's much more dicey because at least 3 teams, and probably 3 more, could knock off Florida and still be ahead of us.  But someone from the bottom half of the league (A&M) could do so and still be below us.

Although with a "name" conference, you would think that the conference tournament winner would get the "bump" you speak of.  But the SEC is not that great at basketball, particularly this year.

Mostly I put the SEC on here to underscore that fact, not because I hope Alabama pulls off the SHOCKER.

Do you see the larger point I'm making, that we need darker horses in the tourney?

I understand what you're getting at.  I just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40. Those were the ones I was pointing to.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40.

But why?  You're denying Valpo a better seed!

[covufan]

I just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40.

But why?  You're denying Valpo a better seed!

In a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league.  For the one-bid leagues where the leader is above 40 RPI, it might help to have a lower team win the tournament.

[Kyle321n]

But why?  You're denying Valpo a better seed! In a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league.  For the one-bid leagues where the leader is above 40 RPI, it might help to have a lower team win the tournament. Report

This is my point exactly.

[agibson]

In a single bid league, if the leader has an RPI below 40 and a different team wins their tournament, the conference might become a two-bid league.

This is correct.  But, so long as that second bid, the auto-bid, has a lousy RPI, that's _good_ for Valpo!

Our goal is to get as many lousy teams into the tournament as possible.  That's how we can get a decent seed: fill up the 16, 15, and 14 (and, heck, why not, 13) seed lines with lousy teams. 

Does this create more multi-bid conferences?  Sure.  But, it it puts more teams in the dance that will have lower seeds than Valpo.

Who loses?  Teams on the at-large bubble.  Unfortunately (? fortunately?), that's not us.

[historyman]

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us.

I really don't think this will happen after Murray State's losses to SIU-E and Eastern IL, 2 lowly OVC teams. The Racers also almost lost to Morehead, going to OT to beat the Eagles. MSU did rebound nicely against S.Dakota St in the bracketbuster game which is no easy task whether home or away.

[agibson]

Murray State would be seeded below us in any situation, as they are around 100 in all RPI categories. 

If you believe RPI forecast, Murray State getting into the NCAA could actually hurt us.  If they win out, while playing as many games as possible in their conference tournament, they're predicted to finish with an RPI rank of 54.  For us, the prediction is 66.

[chef]

Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.

[agibson]

Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.

That seems reasonable.  All I'm saying, is that's not what rpiforecast.com says.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

It seems to say that if we and Murray St. both win as many games as possible down the stretch, they're likely to end with a better RPI.

Then again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI.  (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?).  Maybe their engine's broken. 

*shrug*

[LaPorteAveApostle]

This is correct.  But, so long as that second bid, the auto-bid, has a lousy RPI, that's _good_ for Valpo!

Our goal is to get as many lousy teams into the tournament as possible.  That's how we can get a decent seed: fill up the 16, 15, and 14 (and, heck, why not, 13) seed lines with lousy teams. 

Does this create more multi-bid conferences?  Sure.  But, it it puts more teams in the dance that will have lower seeds than Valpo.

Who loses?  Teams on the at-large bubble.  Unfortunately (? fortunately?), that's not us.

+1000. and thanks.

gibson, for reasons besides this post and possibly related to Troy VIIA, you and I are cut from the same cloth.  cheers.

[historyman]

Then again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI.  (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?).  Maybe their engine's broken.  *shrug*

Maybe we shouldn't pay attention to every little website for minute details.

Reminder: minute (meaning time) and minute (meaning a small thing) are spelled the same yet they are different

[wh]

There are times when I am reminded that this board is full of very bright people.  This is one of those times.  I am really enjoying this exchange of well articulated points (seriousy).  Carry on...

[LaPorteAveApostle]

For the sake of an exemplar of my and agibs' position: let's say the NCAA is a 4-team tourney, with 3 auto bids and one at-large.

Also, there are only 5 teams.  LOOK IT'S A HYPOTHETICAL.  I DO WUT I WANT


Anyways, the last AP poll ranked them
1.  Michigan
2.  Belmont
3.  Northwestern
4.  Valpo
5.  Murray St

So, Northwestern is in line for the at-large--UM (B1G) and Belmont (OVC) are the conference leaders, and Valpo Is In A Class By Itself, of course.

(Hey, if we can have we can have a Conference of One no prob.)

BUT come conference tourney championship game time, Murray pulls off the upset, getting the OVC bid!  Belmont is still pretty high, so THEY still go, and get the lone at-large bid.

NOW the NCAA bracket has to look like this:
1. Michigan
2. Belmont
3. Valpo
4. Murray St

Without playing, we rise, and now get the benefit of playing Belmont instead of Michigan.

And Northwestern, being Go-U-Northwestern, is of course consigned to the pit of Gehenna, where their worm does not die.

THIS is the benefit of the DARK HORSE THEOREM.

[valpotx]

Valpo is currently 67 in the RPI, if they win out, they'll be ahead of Murray State.

That seems reasonable.  All I'm saying, is that's not what rpiforecast.com says.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Murray%20St..html
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

It seems to say that if we and Murray St. both win as many games as possible down the stretch, they're likely to end with a better RPI.

Then again, it also suggests that if we go 25-9 instead of 25-7, we'll end up with a better RPI.  (A chance for road wins instead of home wins?).  Maybe their engine's broken. 

*shrug*

This wouldn't make sense.  Murray State has a much higher chance of playing some crappy RPI team in their conference tournament than we do.  They basically have 3 decent RPI teams, and a bunch of junk in the OVC.  I don't believe their tournament protects the higher seeds as much as the HL does as well

[StlVUFan]

Their 1 and 2 seeds also get a double-bye to the semifinals.

[bbtds]

Their 1 and 2 seeds also get a double-bye to the semifinals.

How exactly does that work with the two divisions in the OVC and the double bye?
Just curious.

Do the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?

Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?

How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?

Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?

If yes, what are the divisions for?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Do the two first place teams from each division get the #1 and #2 seeds and the double bye?

Or may the #1 and #2 seeds come from the same division?

How are the #1 and #2 seeds determined?

Do the divisions not count for determining seeds?

If yes, what are the divisions for?

I can't believe I'm spending several minutes of my life looking into this arcana, but, I suppose given some of the things I DO spend precious moments of my life on this board, I guess I can't complain much to people to whom such things are visible, right?

After all, from whom else would you learn that it is an UNACCEPTABLE USAGE to refer to the Morehead State University Eagles as "MOREHEAD"? (p.3, "OVC Style Guide", OVC Basketball Media Guide, Nashville, TN: OVC Sports Publications, 2012)

(stifle the giggles)
http://issuu.com/ovcsports/docs/2012-13_ovc_basketball_media_guide?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222

OK.  This is the first year divisional play has been instituted.  Similar to other sports, the winners of each division are guaranteed one of the top 2 seeds, then everyone else gets 3 through 8 (3-4 with a bye) (p. 18, ibid.)

Ties are broken like so:  http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2013/2/20/tiebreaker.pdf

Bracket looks like this:  http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com/documents/2012/10/12/2013%20OVC%20MBB%20Bracket.pdf