A look back / a look ahead

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  5-2, obv.

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT? 
RealTimeRPI:  159th (of 347 D-I)  http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html
RPIForecast:  153rd  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

BUT WHAT DOES JEFF SAGARIN THINK? 
89th with a rating of 78.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm
Let's average the 3 and come up with 133rd for right now.

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 23-6, (9-4 out-of conf; 14-2 Horizon)
RPIForecast:  84th with a record of 19-10 (9-4 OOC; 11-5 Horizon; if you just crunched the numbers and came out with a record of 20-9, well, that's math for you)

OK, BUT WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?  Do you mind not yelling so much?
OK. I mean, ok.  How's this? Much better, thanks.
SOS... So far: 
308 (RealTimeRPI) ... at the top of the bottom eighth!
310 (RPIForecast)
316 (Sagarin)

WOW.  I mean like, wow.  Well, it gets a little better; RPIForecast thinks SOS will end up 189...
But... ...it's kind of not great when considering our OOC schedule strength...predicted to end up at 298. I mean, who predicted that we would really really need the two games against UIC to improve our RPI?

THE LOOK BACK:  We lost to the two best teams we played, obv.
St. Louis (30th/RTR; 30th/RPIF; 50/Sag--average 37th) and
N------a (76th/RTR; 74th/RPIF; 128/Sag--average 93rd)

While we beat everyone else, they fall into two groups:
A Decent Win
Kent State (163rd/RTR; 136th/RPIF; 137th/Sag--average 145)
&
Pretty Much Dreck (all RTR...lacked heart/stomach to look all 3 up for each)
GA Southern (259)
Bethune-Cook (292)
Northern Ill (293)
Chicago St (328...dear God.)

Where do the upcoming teams this month fall, RPI-wise? All RTR:
IPFW (264)
New Mex (3)
Missouri St (314...ouch)
Oakland (194)
IUPUI (318...yowza)
Murray St (26)

What do they think will happen? 9-4.
IPFW:  W 81-56 (RTR); Sag: VU by 17
UNM:   L 68-83 (RTR); Sag: UNM by 10
MSU:   W 72-68 (RTR); Sag: VU by 8
OAK:   W 72-71 (RTR); Sag: VU by 1
IUPUI: W 80-57 (RTR); Sag:  VU by 17
MSU2:  L 74-88 (RTR); Sag: MSU by 7

[crusadermoe]

Wow.   That was thorough.      As Joe Friday used to say,...."Just the facts, mam." 

In a nutshell, we have a great opportunity to win the Horizon and the bid, which is really the goal anyway.       Our seed won't go up beyond #14.   We can't raise it but we can drop to 15 or 16 with a couple of horrific losses.   

 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Our seed won't go up beyond #14.   We can't raise it but we can drop to 15 or 16 with a couple of horrific losses.

Dear God, I hope not. 

Let's say RPIForecast is right and we end up in the Dance with an RPI of around 84.

Last year that would have been good enough for ... well, crap. A 14 seed.

For someone who hates any made-up "-ology" word, especially one that begins with "bracket", I'm still going to put this in there--it seems obvious but each seed up is a big difference historically (if we could get to 13, then we're the same boat as '98):

Upset %:
16-seed:    0%
15-seed: 5.4%
14-seed:14.3%
13-seed:21.4%
12-seed:31.1%

Won't bother going higher.  Gosh, if we could beat UNM and (the good) MSU...

[crusadermoe]

Ok...you're right.   I am just frustrated by the Nebraska game still.      We won't drop to #15 or lower unless we really blow some easy ones.    I'm getting queasy seeing some offensive breakdowns that looked like 2004.  We got a bid but lost to a #16 seed and Gonzaga match up.    I still have that T-shirt with 2004 brackets.   

On the up side, a win vs. Murray State could elevate us to a #13 if we win the Horizon bid with 4 or fewer conf. losses.   

Two good thoughts went through my mind yesterday:  1)  I think the 1998 team lost to a SLU team in January that was not even near as good as this SLU team.  They still got hot late and we all know that story.

2)  ESPN radio yesterday said that Rick Majerus was so respected for defensive shemes that some NBA scouts picked the SLU game to watch an NBA prospect from U. South Carolinea-Upstate play vs. SLU.     If Valpo hit a brick wall on offense against SLU, maybe that was a key element?    We just couldn't penetrate or get a decent shot.   Their athletes seem not all to be top 50 team athletes but they play up to that level. 

[milanmiracle]

I'll just say this...unless Valpo beats New Mexico or Murray State...who exactly would the best win be? Unless they beat one of those teams OR there are a tremendous amount of upsets in conference tourneys, Valpo won't get any higher than a 15 seed. Quality wins matter, and to this point VU doesn't have, well, any.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I think both of you are missing my point.

Moe, I wanted to disagree with you about #14 seed, but I found that going 19-10 and ending up ca. 84 RPI (as RPIForecast has us going) would be good for only that in an average year.  I wanted to prove you wrong, but as of now, actually think you are right.

Milan, you can be pessimistic all you like, but we can lose to UNM and MSU, and still lose 5-6 games in conference, and get a 14-seed.  I don't think we lose 5-6 in-conference...do you?

Remember:  the lowest 14-seed still has 10 teams worse than it; RTR has us 14th by power rating and 21st by RPI.  Even if the RPI only improved somewhat, that's still odds-on to have a good ten teams worse than we.

Basically all these stats boil down to a more-or-less circular argument:  we are better than the teams that we beat because we beat them, and we are worse than the teams that we lost to because we lost to them.  If we win the games we are supposed to, and lose those we are also supposed to, then according to Sagarin at least, we'll lose 2 conference games (at UIC, at Detroit) as well as the 2 tough non-con.  Thus, we'd be 25-6, plus BracketBuster and at least one if not two conf tourney games.  I don't know that 27-7 with really no win to hang our hat on at the end of the day (unless BB would be) would be good enough should we lose out.  If we win and get the bid, we're 28-6.

If you've filled out a bracket, when was the last time a mid-major--or heck, even a low-major--got a 15 seed with that record?

Well let's look. 
2 14s last year were 27-7.
In 2011, Long Island got a 15 with a 27-5 as a low major champ (the Northeast conf).
In 2010, most similar:  Oakland, as Summit champ, and a 26-8 record, still got a 14 seed.

Show of hands:  who really thinks we're better off back in the Summit?

(To underscore how much of a fluid argument this is, 18 hours or so after I started this thread we are now up to 85th in Sagarin with a 78.48 rating.  This is why us Bills fans love bye weeks--we can't lose!)

[StlVUFan]

ESPN radio yesterday said that Rick Majerus was so respected for defensive shemes that some NBA scouts picked the SLU game to watch an NBA prospect from U. South Carolinea-Upstate play vs. SLU.

Torrey Craig?

[crusadermoe]

I didn't catch the name of the prospect, but I know I heard the Majerus portion correctly.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

WHERE WE'RE AT:  6-3, obv.

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT? 
RealTimeRPI:  132nd (of 347 D-I)  http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html UP 27!!!
RPIForecast:  97th  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html UP 56!!!
Sagarin:  96th with a rating of 77.64 (tied with the Arizona State Fightin' Edwards). down 7.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm

Average the 3 and come up with 108th, or UP 25 places despite all the hand-wringing going on here..

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 21-8, (9-4 out-of conf; 12-4 Horizon) two more losses than last time
RPIForecast:  19-10 (9-4 OOC; 11-5 Horizon; if you just crunched the numbers and came out with a record of 20-9, well, that's math for you) same as last time

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?   
245 (RealTimeRPI) up 63 slots!
245 (RPIForecast) up 65 slots!
293 (Sagarin) up 23 slots

Average of 261, or UP 50 slots

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We have an 0.09% chance of running the table or only losing one more game!

% of a win this week:
MSU 79%
Oakland 58%
IUPUI 93%

[milanmiracle]

I'll add that the average RPI of the teams that Valpo beat is 277 and they have a combined record of 14-36.

[covufan]

The real question is not the back/forward of VU, but now of UIC.  The Flames are climbing.  The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning, and 7 or 8 teams with 7 or more wins. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Sigh.  Apparently I spend a lot of time on this board giving people information in which they have interest at a rate equivalent to what their savings account is currently earning, so now that someone has expressed an interest, the least I can do is...

KNOW THINE ENEMY:  UIC

WHERE THEY'RE AT:  8-1.

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT? 
RealTimeRPI:  31st (of 347 D-I)  http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html (VU 132)
RPIForecast:  31st; expected finish 76th http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Illinois%20Chicago.html (VU 123 current; expected finish 97)
Sagarin:  90th with a rating of 77.98 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm (VU 96)

Average the 3 and come up with 51st.

WHERE THEY THINK THEY'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 16-12, (8-4 out-of conf; 8-8 Horizon) 
RPIForecast:  20-8 (10-2 OOC; 10-6 Horizon)

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE?   
105 (RealTimeRPI) (VU 245)
108 expected finish 156  (RPIForecast) (VU 245; expected finish 203)
163 (Sagarin) (VU 293)

Average SOS 125 (VU avg. 261)

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  They have an 0.6% chance of running the table or only losing one more game! (six times higher than our chance)

CURRENT PREDICTIONS OF A FLAMING-CRUSADER BATTLE
RealTimeRPI: 
@ UIC 67-71 L
@ VU 76-63 W

RPIForecast:
@ UIC  UIC favored by 3; VU 40% chance of win
@ VU   VU favored by 4+; VU 64% chance of win

TAKEAWAYS
UIC has a bit of a tough row to hoe to end their non-con: 
--EMU (who recently beat Purdue, but maybe that says more about the defeated than the defeatee; 79% win prob)
--@ WIU (54% win prob)
--@ Miami (not that miami, the Roethlisberger Memorial one; 72% win prob)
--@ Toledo (51% win prob)

There's only a 15.6% chance of running that table, by my calc; a 30.7% of a 3-1 record.

Cue that awkward non-con feeling of rooting like a banshee in a game you'd otherwise care nothing about either godforsaken team except that one of these two teams will later play the team you actually care about at which time you will hope we bash their face with a VUPD billy club but right now you REALLY REALLY hope they beat this other team with said club instead.

[wh]

The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning, and 7 or 8 teams with 7 or more wins. 

Including Green Bay, if they ever decide to wake up.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning

RPIForecast EXPECTED HORIZON LEAGUE RESULTS as of 12/11
Valpo 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 9-7
YSU 9-7
CSU 8-8
WSU 8-8
Loyola 7-9
WGB 7-9
Milw 4-12

[covufan]

The HL will be no cakewalk, with 11-5 possibly winning

RPIForecast EXPECTED HORIZON LEAGUE RESULTS as of 12/11
Valpo 10-6
UIC 10-6
Detroit 9-7
YSU 9-7
CSU 8-8
WSU 8-8
Loyola 7-9
WGB 7-9
Milw 4-12

There will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

There will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.

All right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.

FT%
UIC 76.7%
WGB 75.9
VU 74.9
Loyola 73.2
CSU 72.3
Detroit 71.8
YSU 69.3
WSU 67.8
Milw 65.7

3P%
VU 38.3%
CSU 37.6
Loyola 37
Detroit 36.2
UIC 36.2
WSU 35
Milw 30.3
YSU 30.2
WGB 28.2

BONUS ADJUSTED FG%
VU 53.1%
WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1

ADVANTAGE VALPO

[covufan]

All right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.

A little early to finish, then swear, isn't it?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

A little early to finish, then swear, isn't it?

Been a long day and I have made it longer on myself :/

oh well all in the name of VU

[valpopal]

Not that it means much except as a source for fun speculation and spirited discussion, but Joe Lunardi now predicts Valpo to make the NCAA tournament as a #14 seed:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[HC]

A Horizon League reunion in the Elite 8 

[covufan]

There will be many HL games decided in the late minutes, either at the line or a long three.

All right this is the last thing i'm doing today then i swear. gah.

FT%
UIC 76.7%
WGB 75.9
VU 74.9
Loyola 73.2
CSU 72.3
Detroit 71.8
YSU 69.3
WSU 67.8
Milw 65.7

3P%
VU 38.3%
CSU 37.6
Loyola 37
Detroit 36.2
UIC 36.2
WSU 35
Milw 30.3
YSU 30.2
WGB 28.2

BONUS ADJUSTED FG%
VU 53.1%
WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1

ADVANTAGE VALPO

Thanks for the stats.  I like our chances at the end of games.  At 38% 3-pt shooting, maybe we should step out and take 3-4 more shots a game?

[covufan]

BONUS ADJUSTED FG%
VU 53.1%
WSU 52.4
CSU 51
Loyola 50.5
Detroit 49.5
YSU 48.7
UIC 45.7
WGB 44.8
Milw 44.1

ADVANTAGE VALPO

OK, what is our defensive adjusted FG%?

Thanks!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

man, we play us some pretty good defense in this here conference...

Nat'l  Conf  EFFG% School
6     1   39.2   UIC   
51    2   43.3   Youngstown State   
73    3   44.3   Valparaiso   
114   4   45.6   Wright State
146   5   46.6   Loyola (Chicago)
153   6   46.9   Milwaukee   
245   7   49.9   Cleveland State
273   8   50.8   Green Bay   
300   9   52.1   Detroit

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Was going to wait until after today to update this, then realized a) we're going to win handily and b) even if we don't it doesn't matter because it won't affect RPI.  SO.

WHERE WE'RE AT:  9-4, obv, tempting fate.  8-4 to the eyes of RPI.  (can we start pronouncing it "rippy"?  that'd be cool)

WHADDATHEY THINK ABOUT THAT? 
RealTimeRPI:  176th (of 347 D-I) http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html  down 44
RPIForecast:   174th  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html down 77
Sagarin:        111th with a rating of 76.69 http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm down 15

Average the 3 and come up with 154th, or down 46 places.

WHAT ABOUT STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE? ye gods.
318 (RealTimeRPI) down 73
331 (RPIForecast) down 86
330 (Sagarin) down 36

Average of 326, or down 65 slots.  Can't fall any further, can it?  There are only 347 D-1 teams.  Also, $0.10 for every reference you can find in past internet articles to our non-con as "brutal".  Yeah, looks like a veritable gauntlet now, don't it?

WHERE THEY THINK WE'LL END UP?
RealTimeRPI: 18-11, (8-5 out-of conf; 10-6 Horizon) three more losses than last time
RPIForecast:  same as above one more loss than last time
RPIForecast further projects an end-season RPI of 121 and SOS of 203.

BONUS RPI FORECAST FACT:  We have an 0.11% chance of running the table or only losing one more game! (up .02%!)

% of a win next week:
MSU 25%

[LaPorteAveApostle]

All stats from rpiforecast.com and live-rpi.com, as of 8:30 AM EST 12/31/12.

Milwaukee
Record: 4-10
But really: 2-10
RPI: 333  (There are 347 D1 teams.)
OOC RPI: 335
SOS:  284
OOC SOS: 288
Signature win: vs. #90 Davidson, 73-68
Oh so close:  L vs. #235 South Carolina, 82-75, OT (USC currently ranked behind #234 South Carolina Upstate, no fakies).
How did they manage to lose to:  eh, let's face it...they are so bad, no loss could be considered an upset.
Bonus RPIForecast fact:  UWM is given a 31% chance of beating CSU at home.  In no other game are they given even so much as a 1-in-4 shot.
Thing they are like:  Your son's 5th grade basketball team, with a couple more tats and facial hairs.

Green Bay
Record: 6-7
But really:  5-7
RPI: 220
OOC RPI:  223
SOS: 209
OOC SOS: 222
Signature win: vs. #75 Marquette, 49-47.
Oh so close:  L @ #190 Nevada, 71-69.
How did they manage to lose to:  @ #238 Tennesee Tech, 74-68.
Bonus RPIForecast fact: There is a greater chance that they win only one more game the rest of the way (0.05%) than that they lose only two more games (0.04%).
Thing they are like: Women drivers (not so good on the road).

Cleveland St.
Record:  8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 131
OOC RPI: 132
SOS: 147
OOC SOS: 160
Signature win: can they get credit for playing a tough schedule? (ED: no).
Oh so close:  Um...they haven't lost by fewer than 9. So.  There's that.
How did they manage to lose to:  they haven't lost to anyone with a lower RPI. So there's also that.
Bonus RPIForecast fact:  They are at 131 but expected to be 201 when conference dust settles.
Thing they are like: A lawyer for the NHL owners/players. (Seriously, who negotiates for games with Rio [pronounced "rye-oh"] Grande, Notre Dame College [Euclid, OH], and Alabama-Huntsville?  I mean besides Wittenberg.)

Youngstown St.
Record:  8-5
But really: 5-5
RPI: 178
OOC RPI: 180
SOS: 244
OOC SOS: 252
Signature win: @ #237 Georgia, 68-56.  Hey, the name has to be good for something, right?
Oh so close: L to #43 NDSU, 83-80 (neutral site)
How did they manage to lose to:  #216 James Madison
Bonus RPIForecast fact:  I stopped caring about them a couple entries ago.
Thing they are like:  Moo goo gai pan, generally pleasant and non-offensive.  Except you meant to tell the girl "moo shu pork", so you're actually really disappointed.

Detroit
Record: 8-5
But really: 6-5
RPI: 89
OOC RPI: 88
SOS: 83
OOC SOS: 91
Signature win: vs. #93 Akron, 80-73
Oh so close: L @ #103 St. John's, 77-74
How did they lose to: @ #303 Bowling Green, 70-65. Ye gods.
Bonus RPIForecast fact:  Coach Ray McCallum's son, Ray Jr., plays for the Titans.  What, you knew that already? Oh. Well, I never claimed they were new facts.
Thing they are like: A nominally Catholic school with an overly-inflated sense of its basketball prowess.

Wright State
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 179
OOC RPI: 181
SOS: 336
SOS:  dot dot dot dash dash dash dot dot dot
OOC SOS: 335
Signature win: Sorry. UPS won't let you sign for wins unless they're over someone not in the bottom half of D1.
Oh so close: to having a decent schedule.  And by "close to" I mean "ridiculously far from".
How did they lose to: frickin' BOWLING GREEN again!
Bonus RPIForecast fact: They have a 1-in-200 chance of winning out!  (So you're sayin' there's a chance...)
Thing they are like: Their schedule is weaker than ABC's Monday nights.

UIC
Record: 9-4
But really: 8-4
RPI: 67
OOC RPI: 68
SOS: 134
OOC SOS: 142
Signature win: vs. #26 (!) Colorado St., 64-55.
Oh so close: to actually being pretty good before dropping their last three non-con to mediocre squads.
How did they lose to: @ #198 Toledo (by 19...).
Bonus RPIForecast fact: Favored by 22 in a conference game? A 97% chance of winning?  Are you seriously...oh, Milwaukee, huh?...ok...seems low.
Thing they are like: UIC NON-CON == Star Wars, Episode V...except until turning into Episode I there at the end.  Meesa no like that!

Loyola
Record: 9-3
But really: 8-3
RPI: 118
RIP: Realistic hopes.
OOC RPI:  115
SOS: 287
OOC SOS: 291
Signature win:  @ #202 DePaul, 69-61, despite 37 points from a fifty-something Mark Aguirre.
Oh so close: Haven't lost by single digits.
How did they lose to: eh...if your worst loss is #91 South Florida... #firstworldproblems
Bonus RPIForecast Fact: Congratulations!  You have managed to snag 5 games this season against teams with lower RPI than #321 Chicago State!  Tell 'em what they've won!  ...um...six basically meaningless games?
Thing they are like:  A small flash mob that gets the message "SHOW UP PLAY BANZAI-TYPE DEFENSE FOR FORTY MINUTES LIKE CRAZY SINGING OPTIONAL" and it feels like  there's like 12 guys even though only 5 show u...oh wait.  That's...that's actually UIC.  Whoops! My bad.

Valparaiso
Record: 10-4
But really: 9-4
RPI: 111
OOC RPI: 108
SOS: 276
OOC SOS: 279
Signature win: @ #33 Murray St, fool.
Oh so close:  I still don't want to talk about it.
How did they lose: an EIGHT POINT LEAD with 58 SECONDS to play, when there's NO @#$& SHOT CLOCK and the state title is SO CLOSE they are already showing weeping Colonials on the JumboTron, and...erm. Ahem.  right Bryce, wrong Valpo.  Yes.  Totally over that. Where were we?
Bonus RPIForecast fact:  Valpo's probable win % goes up 7-tenths of a percent when Bryce takes off his jacket.
Thing they are like:  The series "Lost". Starts with such hope and promise (with Rowdy as "Jack"!), excites and exhilarates you with previously unforeseen circumstances (who had UIC and Loyola as The Others?), and then trips up in weird places (...Will Bogan as John Locke?), starts disappointing you (Erik Buggs as Michael...Umm, trés obvious—they're both...uh...bad shots), but then pulls you back in with thrilling twists and turns (¿Bryce is Jacob?), building the suspense with hypotheticals (how would the smoke monster do vs. a 1-3-1 zone defense?), until suddenly...you're dead. 

Oh well.