12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico

[78crusader]

I probably should not be the one starting this thread since I do not think we are capable of beating a good team on the road, but here goes:

VU 61
New Mexico 84

[vu72]

I probably should not be the one starting this thread since I do not think we are capable of beating a good team on the road, but here goes:

VU 61
New Mexico 84

You may be right of course, but I highly doubt we will lose by 23 and could well win this one.  Their record is full of close wins including: eating Davidson by 5 (a team Loyola beat), UIC by 7, George Mason by 1, Indiana State by 9 in Over Time, and USC by 8, a team Nebraska beat by something like 15.

With the boys a lot more healthy, I will say Valpo 60 New Mexico 56.

[DMvalpo18]

I love the optimism 72, but with recent road performances I have to classify myself as a doubter. I'm including that intangible Valpo factor that always inhibits us from shooting well against bigger opponents on the road. Somebody brought it up earlier. Why can our program not pick up a big win on the road? So many other programs in the Horizon manage to get one every year, but for some reason not us. What's the deal? What explains it?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

but with recent road performances I have to classify myself as

SOMEONE WHO THINKS WE'RE  ING OVERDUE.

VU 72
UNM 67

[HC]

but with recent road performances I have to classify myself as

SOMEONE WHO THINKS WE'RE  ING OVERDUE. VU 72 UNM 67

Love it, this is were we learn how to win.  I wish this game was next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.

[vu84v2]

I cannot pick Valpo to win given that they have played so poorly on the road against decent opponents.  Furthermore, their offense has looked awful against IPFW and Saint Louis. 

New Mexico 68
Valpo 58

I would like to be wrong.

[VUfan]

New Mexico 68 Valpo 55
The road woes go on. The role players do not think scoring part of that role. Buggs tries to fill the gap.  Woe to him!!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I wish this game was next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.

THIS TIMES A GOOGOL


EDIT: 
EXCEPT FOR THE INCORRECT APPLICATION OF THE PAST SUBJUNCTIVE CONTRARY-TO-FACT CONDITION OF THE VERB "to be".

I wish this game were next weekend when Dority will be ready to go.

[valpotx]

We still can't win a quality road game as some others have mentioned.  Luckily, I get to attempt to watch this one on a cruise ship in the Caribbean 

UNM 73
Valpo 58

[bbtds]

New Mexico      72
Valpo              56

[wh]

I cannot pick Valpo to win given that they have played so poorly on the road against decent opponents.  Furthermore, their offense has looked awful against IPFW and Saint Louis. 

New Mexico 68
Valpo 58

I would like to be wrong.

This expresses my feelings pretty well.  Of course I, too, would like to be wrong.

[crusadermoe]

New Mexico  87
Valpo 61

I think we will hit a low point at the "pit".  It  will be rocking due to their Top 25 rank so I think they will build a 15+ lead at the half and never look back.   

But I do give us a better than even chance of winning at Mo. State after finals week and turning things around after that. 

[vu72]

The history is obvious but this year when we played at SLU, Ryan was very ill and Capo was also hurting.  Both will be better for this game and we've had another game to get our act together.  This year's acclimation to the new guys has taken longer than last year but we also know that Richie, for example, played better as the year went on.  I expect the same for our new guys.

[milanmiracle]

No chance here...at The Pit with an undefeated team coached by Alford. Funny.

New Mexico 78
Valpo 55

Alford's smart enough to watch the game film of St Louis and will shadow Ryan. Ryan's averaged 11pts per against Valpo's best three opponents (Kent St, Nebraska, and St Louis). Not saying its all his fault, but it's reality. When Ryan can't score Valpo struggles.

[78crusader]

OK so I began this thread by saying VU loses by 23.

My secret hope is that for once we come out with something other than a defeatist, we-can't-win attitude, play well, and hold NM to maybe a 6 or 8 point win.  Maybe that would give us something to build on going forward.

Paul

[covufan]

I agree that our road record against teams that are either comparable or better has not been as good as most here would like to see.  I do think we can beat Missouri St. and Oakland, and with some luck Murray St.  It would be great to see a win in the Pit, but most likely not going to happen.

New Mexico   75
Valpo            69

I'm hoping that I'm wrong and we have a made 3 here, an O-board there, a favorable whistle here, some D-boards and limited turnovers, and win!

[wh]

Early line from 2 services - NM by 9 1/2 and 10

[StlVUFan]

OK so I began this thread by saying VU loses by 23.

My secret hope is that for once we come out with something other than a defeatist, we-can't-win attitude, play well, and hold NM to maybe a 6 or 8 point win.  Maybe that would give us something to build on going forward.

Paul

I'm as frustrated with constant failure against high profile, but not highly ranked teams on their home court as you are, but I really don't think you are enough of a mind-reader to discern what their attitude was going in to the game (neither am I, neither is anyone else).

[valpopal]

So far the team has followed my preseason (and December) predictions for every game, and I am afraid this weekend will not be different. New Mexico will win at home, and the week-long final exams break will be just what is needed to rest some folks and prepare for Dority's arrival on the scene.

Valparaiso    59
New Mexico  71

[HC]

Got my haircut today, thanks Matt.  That is pretty much a guaranteed Valpo Victory #itsonlyweirdifitdoesn'twork

[mj]

Not expecting much from the boys tomorrow night. Can't hit the 3 until the last few minutes of the game. Too many turnovers. Bad defense. I think we lose by 19.

[justducky]

I think we play a bit better than at St. Louis but still lose by 10. Lets say 68-58 with a little better showing from Buggs and Capo (I hope).

[crusadermoe]

 I think we can play a LOT better than at SLU and still lose by 20+.   
The place will be rocking.    What other sports attractions are there on par with the Lobos for a 400 mile radius?
But I hope I'm wrong.    Stay within 10 points and it's a real upward move.

[Smj]

I keep looking at this thread and I just can't give my prediction.....   good luck team - I'll be rooting go VU no mater what!   (just play well and have fun)

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Low-down on New Mexico...hate to say it, but they seem overrated.

Beating them is like beating Notre Dame in football, 1994-2011:  you get more credit than you actually deserved for it, which is great.

UNM (9-0):  #18 AP / #20 USA Today. 
Even the polls are hedging their bets a bit, however, as they're the second-lowest rated undefeated team in the polls (Wichita State the other).

KenPom:  UNM #35.    http://kenpom.com/
Sure, we're at #95; while the polls are meant to be a measure of how you've been, KenPom and advanced stats are meant to be predictive.  Thus:

MATCHUP
Luck...We're facing a luckier team than we are--but that's not hard.  UNM's "luck factor" rating places them at #112, in the top third--whereas ours puts us at #219, which should please Truth, but might seem high to those of us who have watched our travails on the road in horror.  "Luck" is an assessment of where a team should be based on how it played vs. its record.  We should be a little better than 6-2, which is both true and sad, hard and bitter, and they shouldn't be undefeated.  As Ken Pomeroy puts it himself (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation)

a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.

Hence, the prediction that they are overdue to come down and we to come up.  To back that up, RPIForecast says they have played well enough to be somewhere between 6-3 and 7-2.

Tempo...Controlling tempo will be key.  You don't need to run to be successful--undefeated Michigan is ranked #7 but #327 in tempo, whereas old friends Longwood are #14 in tempo but #346 of 347 DI teams.  UNM is #115, but we are #248.  If we can slow it down and play defense like we are capable of, we stand a much better shot than trying to go into the Pit Of Despair and play more up-tempo...proverbial coach-speak:  "we're playing right into their hands".

BOTTOM LINE:  RPIForecast gives us a 26% chance, which, better than nothing.

fact 1:  they only beat UIC by 7.
fact 2:  the other closest team to us they played, George Mason, they beat by 1.
fact 3:  they've only played one team better than those 2 (Connecticut).

WE CAN DO THIS PEOPLE.  PAGING TOMMY LASORDA.  NO NOT YOU TEX.  THE REAL DEAL.

BONUS STAT #1:  There's a 0.02% chance we go 11-15 the rest of the season. (RPIForecast)

BONUS STAT #2:  There's a 0.01% chance we WIN OUT!

Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance'