12/8 Valpo v. New Mexico

[wh]

"I knew this was going to be a grind tonight and I thought our guys did a tremendous job in each twenty minutes guarding," New Mexico coach Steve Alford said. "We knew that they would probably slow things down a little bit which is fine. We have been able to play versatile styles. I really appreciate the effort by our guys."

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy

Why in the world would we think we need to slow the game down against NM, as if we're playing top ranked Duke at the United Center (in whatever year that was).  These guys barely beat Indiana State and UIC, and I doubt they did anything "gimmicky."  So what did we get for what we were trying to do?  Working deep into the shot clock in far too many possessions leading to steals, illegal picks, moving screens, jump balls, balls thrown out of bounds, players stepping out of bounds, and forced shots at the end of the shot clock.  We had a TO% (TO's/Possessions) of 35.4, higher than any game in the past 2 seasons.  More than 1 in every 3 trips down the court resulting in a turnover, and yet Bryce is pleased that they're getting better.  Could the players possibly believe that, knowing they're throwing the ball away a third of the time? 

Obviously, there are a lot more positives going on than I have the ability to understand as a fan.   

[valporun]

It's possible that compared to some of the styles New Mexico played in their first 9 games of the season, teams were trying to speed up the game in a way they couldn't do, so instead of speeding it up, we took the opposite approach by toning it down a smidge, and it beat us rather than New Mexico. Not sure what positives were shown, as I don't have the same video/film capabilities that Bryce and the coaching staff do, but I'd love to be able to go thru our games, and see what good and bad happened in each game to get an idea of what needs to be worked on, besides our guards creating opportunities for themselves to have shots, create openings, and do things with the ball that make them look like productive guards, and not "guys in jerseys looking clueless".

[agibson]

On another note, it looks like the NWI just used an AP game story ... does Oren not cover road games?

Sometimes they'll run a piece with a "Staff" by line or some such.  Presumably that means it's collaborative.  But, it's also seemed like what they do if noone's actually present at the game - someone watches on video (or even just audio?), maybe phones up a coach or a player or three, and writes a piece.

I wonder if the Post Tribune quotes from Bryce came from the post-game press conference, or from a phone call?  Were they present in person?

[Pgmado]

I was not at the New Mexico game and the paper ran the wire copy. With the late start there was no way to get the story in the paper.

[vu84v2]

It is not that I am surprised that Valpo lost to New Mexico (and also Saint Louis).  It is just the way that they are playing.  The style of both games seems to have been, "long possessions, slow down the game, maybe we can keep it close and get some breaks in the end".  This is not what I would expect from what should be a very good mid-major team.  The team should have consistent offensive flow and always have multiple options to score on the floor - resulting in good shots on a majority of possessions. 

I don't think that the attitude of the individuals is bad (I am sure that it is good), but the team attitude and how it is translating to strategy on the floor will not result in anything special this year.  Not sure that it can be changed at this point, but teams do get better as the season rolls on towards March.

[agibson]

I don't know that our pace was anything special against New Mexico - we seem to generally be aiming for a lot of passing and a good shot, normally deep into the shot clock.

I don't _quite_ trust Whellistone's statistics here (he seems to be mishandling to the OT game against Kent?).  But, he claims that our average pace is 65.9 possessions (241st in the country) while New Mexico's is a hair faster at 67.4 (169th in the country).  We've been extraordinarily steady, with the Georgia Southern game (61 possessions) being maybe the only slight outlier.

New Mexico's mixed it up a bit more playing fast against Davidson, Portland, Mercer (76, 78, 77 possessions) and slow against UConn, USC (61, 62).  We were just a little below average for them.

[78crusader]

I for one am down on this team.  I bought into the pre-season hype.  I started to think some of our D1 transfers were Karl Malone and Larry Bird.

I will admit that valporun and other "positive thinkers" have raised some good points.  For instance, these games are, after all, tough road games.  And, as pointed out, last year we had a rough December before righting the ship. 

Having said that, what I take away from these positive posts is (1) these are tough games, so it's no surprise if we lose them, and (2) the Horizon League is a lousy league this year, so don't worry, we'll win the conference and get into the NCAAs no matter what happens this month.

There are a lot of responses to make.  For starters, sure these are tough games -- but do we really have to lose ALL of them?  As pointed out by other posters, can't we ever beat a good team, a BCS team, a "name" team, whatever you want to call it?  Or are we simply content in beating up the likes of IPFW and Northern Illinois? It has been YEARS since we beat a BCS team -- Washington, in some made-up, no-one-cares tournament.  As for the HL, I'd say we have less than a 50/50 shot at this moment of winning the league.  And if we do, then what?  A #15 or even a #16 seed, with an invitation to suffer a 40 or 50 point loss to IU/Duke/Louisville/Ohio State.  How in the world does that advance VU basketball?

This weekend we play at Missouri State, a 2-7 club that has only beaten Philander Smith and Malone (I'm not making this up).  ORU beat them by 20.  If Mo State doesn't finish last in the Mo Valley, they'll finish 9th.  This is a game that we should win, no excuses.  We'll see.  If we lose this game, I say grab the life jackets 'cause this is a sinking ship.

Paul

[crusadermoe]

I will just summarize my frustration briefly.

Last year started even more poorly but it was a total re-build and Bryce was a first year coach.  That made sense.

This year we had so many returning players and lost just Richie and Jay Harris.   All the hype said that Bobby C. and Coleman would be adequate or better.

Essentially we have the same players.   They are one year older and stronger, but they are worse in performance?   

[justducky]

We have people all over the map on here with hopes and expectations. There were posts earlier saying this could be the best Valpo team ever, and there are yet others who don't think they'll make the tournament. I think most people expect them to win 20 games, and finish in the top half of the conference. After that, opinions vary wildly.

We have a long way to go but  you can still count me in that first group that believes it could all come together for some great things. The overall underperformance (senior turnovers?) so far leaves me just as baffled as the rest of you, but if we can find ways to win at Missouri St and Oakland while introducing Dority to the mix we may someday be able to look back at the last 10 days and see it as the turning point.

So my white flag will remain in my back pocket until I can see all of the puzzle pieces, healthy and fully integrated; aligned on the floor under the Bryce Drew master plan. My hopes and expectations are that he can take this talented, deep, versatile, senior-led group and figure out ways to get some big wins.

If on the other hand we continue to sputter and stall and you see me start to waiver on my conviction then it might be advisable to start heading to the door early so that you don't get caught-up in a mad stampede for the exits.

[agibson]

They are one year older and stronger, but they are worse in performance?

What's your response to the "optimist" position that we're _not_ any worse than we were last December?

[covufan]

Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 

Not sure what others were expecting either.  Of our out of conference road schedule (7 games), the early season predictions had us as underdogs in each game.  I was expecting 2-3 wins, and hoping for a fourth (Nebraska).  We could still get three out of those 7 games, and maybe get some luck with Murray St.  A 10-4 record before HL play is what I expected, and still a very real possibility.  This team will need to develop, just as last season's did during HL play.  I fully expect for this team to compete for the HL championship, and hope for a better result in the HL tournament. 

What expectations did others have?  A perfect season?

[milanmiracle]

Fellas, we're just not gonna have the kind of year we were expecting/hoping for.

Paul

Not sure what everyone else was expecting, but this is exactly what I expected up to this point—losses to Nebraska, St. Louis, and New Mexico on their courts, wins in the other games, and I am still hoping for a 10-4 record by January, though I'd be satisfied with 9-5, plus a conference title. So far, nothing is different from what I expected in my preseason predictions (except that Bobby had surgery and Ryan has Mono). 

Not sure what others were expecting either.  Of our out of conference road schedule (7 games), the early season predictions had us as underdogs in each game.  I was expecting 2-3 wins, and hoping for a fourth (Nebraska).  We could still get three out of those 7 games, and maybe get some luck with Murray St.  A 10-4 record before HL play is what I expected, and still a very real possibility.  This team will need to develop, just as last season's did during HL play.  I fully expect for this team to compete for the HL championship, and hope for a better result in the HL tournament. 

What expectations did others have?  A perfect season?

I am not terribly surprised by the results, but I guess I was hoping for an "upset" or two. The record is pretty much what I figured it would be at this point but since everybody not named Nebraska, New Mexico, Murray State and St. Louis is craptastic how can anybody be impressed? How bad are the teams on this schedule? Of the teams Valpo beat they have an average RPI of 277. That's counting Kent State at 153 in that average. If you pull out Kent St  the average RPI is 301. Of course they have a good record, they're playing BAD teams. How about the outstanding records of 14-36 for the teams Valpo beat. Again take out Kent State and it's 9-31. Not exactly a "tough" out of conference schedule now is it?

[EddieCabot]

"I knew this was going to be a grind tonight and I thought our guys did a tremendous job in each twenty minutes guarding," New Mexico coach Steve Alford said. "We knew that they would probably slow things down a little bit which is fine. We have been able to play versatile styles. I really appreciate the effort by our guys."

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/12/08/2396043/recap-new-mexico-vs-valparaiso.html#storylink=cpy

Why in the world would we think we need to slow the game down against NM, as if we're playing top ranked Duke at the United Center (in whatever year that was).  These guys barely beat Indiana State and UIC, and I doubt they did anything "gimmicky."  So what did we get for what we were trying to do?  Working deep into the shot clock in far too many possessions leading to steals, illegal picks, moving screens, jump balls, balls thrown out of bounds, players stepping out of bounds, and forced shots at the end of the shot clock.  We had a TO% (TO's/Possessions) of 35.4, higher than any game in the past 2 seasons.  More than 1 in every 3 trips down the court resulting in a turnover, and yet Bryce is pleased that they're getting better.  Could the players possibly believe that, knowing they're throwing the ball away a third of the time? 

Obviously, there are a lot more positives going on than I have the ability to understand as a fan.

I admit I couldn't watch the game, but I think wh makes a lot of valid points here.  It seems like Buggs, Kenney and Coleman all excel in transition, so it does seem strange that Valpo would intentionally slow the tempo.  Also, if the plan was to slow the game down, why wouldn't Bryce utilize his bigger lineups more?  Wouldn't they be more effective in a half court game?  KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

Rhymes with "bowel trouble"

[Smj]

Rhymes with "bowel trouble"

[sarc]
Not sure about the rhyming rules but I don't think it works when the word "trouble" is both in the result and the original...    How about "bowel stubble" or "towel rubble" or "too many f@&$ing fouls" (sorry gave it away with the last one)
[/sarc]

[KL31NY]

Ryan Broekhoff between the legs assist
Sick! (pun definitely intended, take care Rowdy!)

Other observations based on the audio on the video:

Why is it not synced up? It's almost a full second ahead of the video
How can you consider the lane "the painted area" if there is no color?

[chef]

You know what's almost as great as the play...Ryan's reaction. He just sprints back on defense. There's no "look at me, I just made the best play of the season."

[covufan]

KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined

He's right.  49.4, to be exact: I have
Capo at 13.8;
Vashil at 12.4;
KVW at 23.2.

Furthermore, KVW fouled out at 5:01; Capo at 9:25.  If they hadn't, they'd have at least their season average (bearing in mind that they are sharing minutes in the frontcourt anyway, but the foul trouble meant no overlapping). 

Thus, they normally overlap one another about 10 min a game; this game 5.

[EddieCabot]

KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?

It just seemed like many people were expecting Valpo to use a bigger lineup once Capobianco was back, especially against teams with the size of New Mexico.  I guess they (and me) were wrong.

[valpopal]

KVW, Capobianco and Fernandez got just 45 minutes combined.

And you would expect how many???

From the team stats, these three average 49 minutes combined, and you think 45 is some great deviation from 49???  Are you expecting 120 minutes combined?

It just seemed like many people were expecting Valpo to use a bigger lineup once Capobianco was back, especially against teams with the size of New Mexico.  I guess they (and me) were wrong.

Bobby is not full strength yet. If we talk in generalizations, I am hoping that when he is fully healthy, Bobby and Kevin will get about 24 minutes each, and Vashil will get about 12 minutes: total of 60 minutes. Of course, that would vary based upon the lineup of the opponent and any foul trouble during the game.

[truth219]

When is bobby going to be 100% to you.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

[snarc] Assuming that's a question, [/snarc] I don't think it's relevant when any of us think he's "ready".  A hernia is a serious injury to your core, to the extent that people are still supposing it's an issue for Alex Rossi over twenty-two months after his surgery.

I know you seem anxious to judge Capo without accepting any excuses, but to me, that's a pretty good one.


Also, as far as two big men, this analysis from MGoBlog on UM BBall seemed, well, vaguely familiar:

Playing two posts has not really been a good idea when you've got a 6'6" guy who can get up and shoot threes at the four, so [Coach Beilein] hasn't done it.