12/17: Valpo @ Oakland Game Thread

[crusaderjoe]

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/crusaders-suffer-another-collapse-against-oakland/article_4f261506-b4be-58cc-b412-67854432b2f1.html

"I'm more worried about Ryan Broekhoff than anything right now," Drew said. "He's in some pain and has a lot of bruises and scratches. I'm more concerned with getting him healthy than anything else.

The Crusaders held a nine-point lead with less than five minutes remaining Monday night before the Grizzlies scored the final 11 points of the game to win 70-68 at the O'rena."

"There were a couple plays that we didn't execute," Valparaiso coach Bryce Drew said of the final five minutes. "Lavonte (Dority) hasn't been in a tight game with us and we're just getting that experience."

The Crusaders had a chance to get the ball back down one after a missed free throw with 9.1 seconds left, but Duke Mondy went one-on-four against the Valparaiso defense and came away with an offensive rebound.

There's another quote in that article that I'm assuming relates in part to the offensive rebound mentioned above:

"That's something that we'll talk about," Drew said. "If you want to win on the road you have to move past the mental mistakes. This will be a learning experience from the last five minutes."

I thought the late game teachable moment on mental mistakes would have already came and went when Valpo called a timeout they didn't have against Kent State in OT earlier this year, but I guess not. 

Keep chest thumping...we're 7-4, right where we should be!

[justducky]

I wasn't here last year, so could someone who was tell me the general mood on here?  Were people excited at this point last year or was there a lot of whining then too?

In many ways, it seems the only difference between last year's team and this on is, ironically, us--and our expectations.

Last year at this time maybe 25% of this group thought we might be able to reach a 2 seed double bye position. The vast majority had us as a 3 or a 4 seed including myself. WH might have been closest on the conference win-loss record (someone could check that) and at the extremes without even looking I'd wager that 72 was the most optimistic and Milan the most cynical (Setshot thought we could do pretty well in Div-II).   So our general expectations are much higher this year  and should be.

[Valpo89]

I wasn't here last year, so could someone who was tell me the general mood on here?  Were people excited at this point last year or was there a lot of whining then too?

In many ways, it seems the only difference between last year's team and this on is, ironically, us--and our expectations.

Last year at this time maybe 25% of this group thought we might be able to reach a 2 seed double bye position. The vast majority had us as a 3 or a 4 seed including myself. WH might have been closest on the conference win-loss record (someone could check that) and at the extremes without even looking I'd wager that 72 was the most optimistic and Milan the most cynical (Setshot thought we could do pretty well in Div-II).   So our general expectations are much higher this year  and should be.

Every December, the team goes through a bad stretch of not living up to expectations. Every December, the good folks on this message board need to be talked off a cliff.
So LaPorte, this is nothing new. Doesn't make it any easier though. It would be nice to finish off a winnable game.

[milanmiracle]

Tough loss to Oakland by 2 points, the same result as exactly one year ago on 12/17/11 when Valpo lost to Oakland by 2 points. Also, Valpo is now 7-4, which is what they were after that Oakland game last year as well. In addition, the comments on the board seem to repeat what were written at that time. Still looking forward to the team gaining momentum as they did last year when conference play began.

So, everything is exactly the same as last year...does that mean Valpo doesn't make the tournament again too?

If the team does everything it did last season and gets to the conference tournament championship, though healthy this time and with a legitimate chance to reverse last year's result, I'll be satisfied.

That's a good perspective. As I've said before, Bryce rolled the dice for an at-large bid with a brutal non-conference schedule.  He knew it was a long shot to win on the road against tough teams like Nebraska, SLU and Oakland, but he was willing to take the shot.  A favorable bounce here or there and Valpo would still be in the hunt for an at-large bid.

Things didn't work out, so Valpo merely needs to focus on league games to get a favorable seed for the tournament.  That's now their route to the NCAA tourney.

I'd hardly call it a brutal non conference schedule. They played 3 decent/good mid majors, and one very bad BCS team.

Nebraska
Kent State
St. Louis
New Mexico
Murray State

For comparison, let's look at Butler's out of conference schedule...

Xavier (not counted as a conference game)
Marquette
North Carolina
Illinois
Northwestern
Indiana
Vanderbilt

Or a little closer to home...Detroit...

St. John's
Miami(FL)
Bowling Green
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Temple

Those are brutal schedules, NOT what Valpo played.

[milanmiracle]

I wasn't here last year, so could someone who was tell me the general mood on here?  Were people excited at this point last year or was there a lot of whining then too?

In many ways, it seems the only difference between last year's team and this on is, ironically, us--and our expectations.

Last year at this time maybe 25% of this group thought we might be able to reach a 2 seed double bye position. The vast majority had us as a 3 or a 4 seed including myself. WH might have been closest on the conference win-loss record (someone could check that) and at the extremes without even looking I'd wager that 72 was the most optimistic and Milan the most cynical (Setshot thought we could do pretty well in Div-II).   So our general expectations are much higher this year  and should be.

In fairness, I am generally the most cynical, with Setshot being over the top negative in most cases. However, I try to pick apart the teams strengths AND weaknesses when evaluating them.

I'll use Eric Buggs as an example. This is not meant to pick on Buggs, he just the most extreme example of good vs. bad traits. Some people see a very good defender (mostly true), I see a horrific shooter. What wins? Well, when you have to play 4 on 5 on offense, I tend to think the weakness outweighs the strength. As an opponent I would try to exploit that opportunity. Good teams do and sag off, eliminating penetration. It's awful hard to drive and kick to open shooters when your defender is standing on the foul line. Watch the St. Louis game, baiting him in to taking ill advised threes. On top of that, they can close out on the other three point shooters because they don't have to worry about helping off penetration. It also makes it very difficult to make an entry pass too, as many of the angles are taken away. If need be they can double off Buggs as help, no matter if you put Buggs on the weak or strong side on offense.  That's how I tend to evaluate the team.

It's not just Buggs either, I can do the same thing for Ryan too. His greatest strength might also be his biggest weakness. He's a team player and doesn't take bad shots. Because he's a team player and doesn't take bad shots, he's reluctant to just take over, even if a good shot isn't there. You don't have to worry too much about him going all Kobe Bryant on somebody, because it's not the correct basketball play. That's both good and bad in some instances. There's a fine line between gunning away and taking over and influencing the momentum of the game. I'd like to see Ryan watch Rotnei Clarke and learn how to take some bad shots once in a while. Interestingly enough, I'd also have Rotnei Clarke watch Ryan for awhile and realize you don't have to shoot every time you are open.

In fairness, most people should have high expectations for a team returning almost everybody and the Horizon League POY. It's not looking good at this point, but having Dority could make a difference long term.

[VUfan]

The biggest Question from last nights game is why was valpos least experienced player(Dority)handling the ball so much in the last five minutes of the game not your most Experienced All Conference Players (Broekhoff and VanVijk and Ben Boggs) also the best foul shooters? 

[truth219]

I wasn't here last year, so could someone who was tell me the general mood on here?  Were people excited at this point last year or was there a lot of whining then too?

In many ways, it seems the only difference between last year's team and this on is, ironically, us--and our expectations.

Last year at this time maybe 25% of this group thought we might be able to reach a 2 seed double bye position. The vast majority had us as a 3 or a 4 seed including myself. WH might have been closest on the conference win-loss record (someone could check that) and at the extremes without even looking I'd wager that 72 was the most optimistic and Milan the most cynical (Setshot thought we could do pretty well in Div-II).   So our general expectations are much higher this year  and should be.

In fairness, I am generally the most cynical, with Setshot being over the top negative in most cases. However, I try to pick apart the teams strengths AND weaknesses when evaluating them.

I'll use Eric Buggs as an example. This is not meant to pick on Buggs, he just the most extreme example of good vs. bad traits. Some people see a very good defender (mostly true), I see a horrific shooter. What wins? Well, when you have to play 4 on 5 on offense, I tend to think the weakness outweighs the strength. As an opponent I would try to exploit that opportunity. Good teams do and sag off, eliminating penetration. It's awful hard to drive and kick to open shooters when your defender is standing on the foul line. Watch the St. Louis game, baiting him in to taking ill advised threes. On top of that, they can close out on the other three point shooters because they don't have to worry about helping off penetration. It also makes it very difficult to make an entry pass too, as many of the angles are taken away. If need be they can double off Buggs as help, no matter if you put Buggs on the weak or strong side on offense.  That's how I tend to evaluate the team.

It's not just Buggs either, I can do the same thing for Ryan too. His greatest strength might also be his biggest weakness. He's a team player and doesn't take bad shots. Because he's a team player and doesn't take bad shots, he's reluctant to just take over, even if a good shot isn't there. You don't have to worry too much about him going all Kobe Bryant on somebody, because it's not the correct basketball play. That's both good and bad in some instances. There's a fine line between gunning away and taking over and influencing the momentum of the game. I'd like to see Ryan watch Rotnei Clarke and learn how to take some bad shots once in a while. Interestingly enough, I'd also have Rotnei Clarke watch Ryan for awhile and realize you don't have to shoot every time you are open.

In fairness, most people should have high expectations for a team returning almost everybody and the Horizon League POY. It's not looking good at this point, but having Dority could make a difference long term.

If you look at it this way, then why wouldn't rossi get some mins. His shooting out weights whatever weaknesses has.

[milanmiracle]

I wasn't here last year, so could someone who was tell me the general mood on here?  Were people excited at this point last year or was there a lot of whining then too?

In many ways, it seems the only difference between last year's team and this on is, ironically, us--and our expectations.

Last year at this time maybe 25% of this group thought we might be able to reach a 2 seed double bye position. The vast majority had us as a 3 or a 4 seed including myself. WH might have been closest on the conference win-loss record (someone could check that) and at the extremes without even looking I'd wager that 72 was the most optimistic and Milan the most cynical (Setshot thought we could do pretty well in Div-II).   So our general expectations are much higher this year  and should be.

In fairness, I am generally the most cynical, with Setshot being over the top negative in most cases. However, I try to pick apart the teams strengths AND weaknesses when evaluating them.

I'll use Eric Buggs as an example. This is not meant to pick on Buggs, he just the most extreme example of good vs. bad traits. Some people see a very good defender (mostly true), I see a horrific shooter. What wins? Well, when you have to play 4 on 5 on offense, I tend to think the weakness outweighs the strength. As an opponent I would try to exploit that opportunity. Good teams do and sag off, eliminating penetration. It's awful hard to drive and kick to open shooters when your defender is standing on the foul line. Watch the St. Louis game, baiting him in to taking ill advised threes. On top of that, they can close out on the other three point shooters because they don't have to worry about helping off penetration. It also makes it very difficult to make an entry pass too, as many of the angles are taken away. If need be they can double off Buggs as help, no matter if you put Buggs on the weak or strong side on offense.  That's how I tend to evaluate the team.

It's not just Buggs either, I can do the same thing for Ryan too. His greatest strength might also be his biggest weakness. He's a team player and doesn't take bad shots. Because he's a team player and doesn't take bad shots, he's reluctant to just take over, even if a good shot isn't there. You don't have to worry too much about him going all Kobe Bryant on somebody, because it's not the correct basketball play. That's both good and bad in some instances. There's a fine line between gunning away and taking over and influencing the momentum of the game. I'd like to see Ryan watch Rotnei Clarke and learn how to take some bad shots once in a while. Interestingly enough, I'd also have Rotnei Clarke watch Ryan for awhile and realize you don't have to shoot every time you are open.

In fairness, most people should have high expectations for a team returning almost everybody and the Horizon League POY. It's not looking good at this point, but having Dority could make a difference long term.

If you look at it this way, then why wouldn't rossi get some mins. His shooting out weights whatever weaknesses has.

Not necessarily. He might be a real liability of defense, and that could expose some others who are also a liability of defense. Can he create off the bounce? How does he rebound? How does he rotate in the zone, and can he read where to help? There are so many reason he could be on the bench, shooting is just one part of the game. Granted, it's very important part, but my guess is there is a whole lot more to the story.

[truth219]

Well played....but from what I've seen and I've seen every min he has played he didn't look any worse than anyone else.

[valpopal]

The biggest Question from last nights game is why was valpos least experienced player(Dority)handling the ball so much in the last five minutes of the game not your most Experienced All Conference Players (Broekhoff and VanVijk and Ben Boggs) also the best foul shooters? 

Of course, the officials didn't call a single foul on Oakland in the last five minutes and didn't seem inclined to do so no matter what, plus Dority is one of the best foul shooters at above 90%.

[HC]

Well played....but from what I've seen and I've seen every min he has played he didn't look any worse than anyone else.

31 minutes isn't a very big sample size.

[truth219]

No it isn't but its big enough to know whether or not id like to see him play more. Last year after I saw hrvoje vucic play 31 mins, I had seen enough.

[vu72]

Hate to say this but I agree with miracle's most recent posts.     The facts seems to point to a lack of leadership as well as stupid turnovers.  If, and that is a huge if, we can somehow cut down to say, 12 per game (what did Oakland have?) we will win  a lot of games.  We lost by 2 and had how many? It seems to be that guys are trying to force stuff without need.  Hopefully Bryce can right the ship.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

VUFan, Dority is also the team's best free throw shooter (91.7% for his college career).  In fact, he'd never missed one before his first game here.  (Although Ryan on the year is 93.3%; for his career, though, only 80.8%)

The ball was in his hands a lot vs. MSU and though it wasn't great end-of-game management either, he went 9-10 from the stripe for the night.

EDIT:  TRUTH219:

Last year after I saw hrvoje vucic play 31 mins, I had seen enough.

DIED LAUGHING

[valpo64]

Let's call a spade a spade!  Our coaching in the OU game was a disaster!!!  We have an 8-10 point lead and all of a sudden we decide to sit on it and hold the ball instead of running our offense which got us the lead.  Buggs farts around for 30 seconds in the center circle and the best shot we get is a forced 3-pointer from 25 feet out - you've got to be kidding.  And this happened more than once!!  Buggs should be sitting a lot more.  His play seems to get worse as the season progresses.

With coaching like that we wont have to worry about Bryce going to a big time job, that's for sure.  We get beat by a 3-7 team, blowing a 8- 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes to go?   The staff and the team should be ashamed of their performance...I know I was.

[StlVUFan]

From my courtside seat:

1.  Refs Friday night called tons of charging fouls, both ways.  Last night, in very similar situations, they called at most one, late in the game.  Something odd about that.

2.  Boggs bear hugged Petros.  Stupid.  Also obvious.  I have no idea what he was thinking.

3.  Buggs: I have a feeling that's the way the rule has to be interpreted.  It seems unfair, but maybe the refs can't do anything about it.  Apparently Erik got suckered into a retaliation tech.  Tempers were already short at that point.  Bader was whining to the refs all night that Boggs was molesting him.  I thought the two of them were going to go at it at one point.

4.  Dority taunted the Oakland bench after the emphatic dunk in the first half.  Apparently, Matt Kenney forgot to remind him about this.  HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR PLAYERS TO "GET THE MEMO" ON THIS?

5.  There were tons of hacking fouls committed by both sides.  Almost none were called.

6.  In short, other than the Techs, I did not see a huge amount of favoritism.

7.  The missed FT bounced very quickly back to the shooter.  Believe it or not, the 4 Valpo players had no chance at it.  It bounced squarely off the back edge of the rim.  Unlucky bounce.

Ryan did get off a fairly decent shot though contested to be sure.  It may have been a bit more rushed that he would have liked.

Obviously the turnovers were huge.  Oakland missed a ton of close-in shots.

The curious part of the game that I didn't figure out even though it unfolded in front of me was when they left Kevin alone 3 straight times underneath, then all of a sudden everything stopped.  It happened so fast, I did not notice the reason.  I'm guessing that's when Bryce decided to slow it down.  I'm sure he had his reasons, and he surely knew more about the condition of his team than we do.

It was frustrating to lose, but it was also well worth 10.5 hour drive for me.  The place was electric in the final minutes.  Kampe said it felt like he was in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

It was a typical Oakland-Valpo game.  By my count we still have a large margin in the "heartbreaking loss" category of this series.  Meanwhile, they have now won 5 of the last 6.  I'd say the tables have turned.

[atkins]

Although this comment may be blasphemous, perhaps the team is not receiving particularly strong basketball coaching at the moment.  As any competent coach can attest, there is a huge difference between recruiting and motivating/coaching  So far, Bryce and crew have demonstrated a superlative ability to recruit, but I have not seen anything that "wows" me with respect to in-game motivation or coaching decisions. 

Bryce and Roger are still learning the coaching profession.  Neither one of them is Brad Stevens, and they may never be as effective as Stevens, but we might be expecting too much of them in light of their relative inexperience. 

[bbtds]

7.  The missed FT bounced very quickly back to the shooter.  Believe it or not, the 4 Valpo players had no chance at it.  It bounced squarely off the back edge of the rim.  Unlucky bounce.

There is a thing called "I got the shooter." Whoever is responsible for the shooter immediately steps in front of the opposing player taking the FT and prevents exactly this very thing from happening. The very reason why the team not taking the FT designates a player to block out the shooter is so this never ever happens. It's called one of the fundamentals of basketball. The same as blocking out your designated man when a shot goes up so your man doesn't get an offensive rebound. This is another of the fundamentals of basketball.

[StlVUFan]

7.  The missed FT bounced very quickly back to the shooter.  Believe it or not, the 4 Valpo players had no chance at it.  It bounced squarely off the back edge of the rim.  Unlucky bounce.

There is a thing called "I got the shooter." Whoever is responsible for the shooter immediately steps in front of the opposing player taking the FT and prevents exactly this very thing from happening. The very reason why the team not taking the FT designates a player to block out the shooter is so this never ever happens. It's called one of the fundamentals of basketball. The same as blocking out your designated man when a shot goes up so your man doesn't get an offensive rebound. This is another of the fundamentals of basketball.

It happened so fast, the FT shooter didn't have to move.  The ball literally bounced right back to the FT line.

[milldew72]

Let's call a spade a spade!  Our coaching in the OU game was a disaster!!!  We have an 8-10 point lead and all of a sudden we decide to sit on it and hold the ball instead of running our offense which got us the lead.  Buggs farts around for 30 seconds in the center circle and the best shot we get is a forced 3-pointer from 25 feet out - you've got to be kidding.  And this happened more than once!!  Buggs should be sitting a lot more.  His play seems to get worse as the season progresses.

With coaching like that we wont have to worry about Bryce going to a big time job, that's for sure.  We get beat by a 3-7 team, blowing a 8- 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes to go?   The staff and the team should be ashamed of their performance...I know I was.

I've said this for years. The Drews refuse to put their foot on the neck of their opponents. There seems to be a flat refusal to beat the heck out of teams. THey go into a prevent all the team, and instead of putting the game away, they hold back. And it's gonna end up killing them'

[covufan]

Let's call a spade a spade!  Our coaching in the OU game was a disaster!!!  We have an 8-10 point lead and all of a sudden we decide to sit on it and hold the ball instead of running our offense which got us the lead.  Buggs farts around for 30 seconds in the center circle and the best shot we get is a forced 3-pointer from 25 feet out - you've got to be kidding.  And this happened more than once!!  Buggs should be sitting a lot more.  His play seems to get worse as the season progresses.

With coaching like that we wont have to worry about Bryce going to a big time job, that's for sure.  We get beat by a 3-7 team, blowing a 8- 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes to go?   The staff and the team should be ashamed of their performance...I know I was.

I've said this for years. The Drews refuse to put their foot on the neck of their opponents. There seems to be a flat refusal to beat the heck out of teams. THey go into a prevent all the team, and instead of putting the game away, they hold back. And it's gonna end up killing them'

I did not see the game.  From the box score and play-by-play, we went from a 9 point deficit to a 9 point lead in 10.5 minutes.  Obviously very good play during that time.  With a 9 point lead and 4:51 left to play, we should be able to finish that game with a win.  From posts on this board, it appears that the team went into a sit and hold mode, which apparantly stalled our momentum.  During the last 5 minutes, we missed 5 shots, 4 of them 3 pointers.  Why does a team with the lead need to shoot three's?  To finish games we need be in position for good shots, getting the ball close to the basket, where we can either get a good shot or go to the foul line.  Running the normal offense and taking shots when open will finish a game more than taking time off the clock and missing a three pointer.  I'm sure the team will be working these issues, as we will have many close games in HL play.  Of course if we had limited our TOs, fouls and poor shot selection in the last five minutes, maybe this game would have been an 8-10 point win, and not close in the final seconds.  With a team like this, we should have gone to the line 25 times, not Oakland.

[historyman]

I just hope that if we get out to a lead that we maintain it, and if we have a chance to stomp on their neck and go for the kill at some point that we actually do it so game momentum has no chance of shifting.

On the road we either curl up into a ball or offer no killer instinct when we're actually in a game which ultimately makes VU have to rely on the other team's weaknesses in order to win, IMO.

Unfortunately for Valpo the above was truly prophetic. It happened exactly opposite of the way you wanted it to happen.

[oklahomamick]

if it makes anyone feel any better, Oakland is on top of West Virginia at halftime....

[agibson]

Paul Oren got a great quote about the Oakland game, which runs in his game day piece today,
http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/crusaders-struggling-in-close-games-this-season/article_3ea8944f-f900-57e8-b7b8-81ea3d8dd8bd.html

Drew said on Wednesday that there could be some changes in the starting lineup, but one place there wouldn't be changes would be in his end-of-game philosophy. The Crusaders spent much of the final five minutes of the Oakland game slowing down the ball on offense and running time off the clock.

"We looked at the tape, and if I could go back, I'd do the same thing," Drew said. "It's something that we've done. We didn't slow it down out of transition, just off the set plays. If we make one more basket, it's probably a different outcome, and then we're talking about something different."

Thanks for asking it Paul - fantastic to hear Bryce on this.

It's something that we've done!  No kidding!  I hope Bryce knows something I don't here.  (And, yes, of course... he might well.  But...)  Because, with the rest of you, it sure looks bad to see this over and over again.  It just doesn't look effective.

Why wait _so long_ in the shot clock to even _start_ running the offense?  But, apparently, there's more of it to come...

I'd love to see some modeling of this, if someone can somehow demonstrate that it's an effective strategy.  Heck, even a plausible hand waving explanation would be nice.

Maybe it's about preventing turnovers?  Our turnover rate is pretty high, so maybe just sitting on the ball _does_ turn out to be safest?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

"We looked at the tape, and if I could go back, I'd do the same thing," Romney said.

"We looked at the tape, and if I could go back, I'd do the same thing," Earhart said.

"We looked at the tape, and if I could go back, I'd do the same thing," every Bills coach since Marv Levy said.