Next 6 games

[covufan]

The next six games are key to our HL chances.  With road games at UIC, Milwaukee, Detroit, and YSU, a 3-3 record during this stretch is possible.  If that happens, we'll have 4 in the loss column, potentially being 2-3 games back in the L column to the halfway leader.  After the Loyola game, we really need to step up on the road and crush everyone that visits the ARC.  I'm hoping for 5-1 record during this stretch, but we really need at least 4 wins.

The HL is very tight.  Teamrankings is projecting 7 teams in the HL with 8 conference victories (rounding up):

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

This will be a very tough season.  Still like our chances!

[crusadermoe]

Sounds good to me.   

This topic has probably been hit before.   How does our 3-point shooting percent at this point compare to last year?     

I don't know hoops xs and os so I can't tell you why the offensive flow is so much worse this year.    Are all teams sagging off us until we prove we an hit them?    That would gum up the passing lanes.   Maybe this is a "duh" for you folks like HC, VU72 and others.   I said in another string that I do miss Jay Harris for that ability to come in and just gun from 25 feet. 

[vu72]

Sounds good to me.   

This topic has probably been hit before.   How does our 3-point shooting percent at this point compare to last year?     

I don't know hoops xs and os so I can't tell you why the offensive flow is so much worse this year.    Are all teams sagging off us until we prove we an hit them?    That would gum up the passing lanes.   Maybe this is a "duh" for you folks like HC, VU72 and others.   I said in another string that I do miss Jay Harris for that ability to come in and just gun from 25 feet. 

Actually our results for this year--to date, versus last year are pretty similar. Both this and last year the team has averaged 68 ppg. Our FG% is down slightly from 46.7 to 45.9 but our FT% and 3 point % are better this year. Rebounds are 2 better per game but our assists are down 1 and turnovers up 2.  Ryan is much better and Kenvin is down 2 ppg and slightly less on rpg.  I don't have the time to matchup player to player but will try to do a more in-depth analysis shortly.

[bbtds]

I do miss Jay Harris for that ability to come in and just gun from 25 feet.

Not to find fault with your memory but I remember many games when Jay Harris would come in and throw up a lot of three point shots and nothing would go in. He also took a lot of those three point shots during the first part of the shot clock and didn't give the team a chance to score in the paint at all. Jay was just as hot and cold as the rest of the Valpo three point shooters. He was a great FT shooter and there were times he iced games for us better than any player we have. But I really think your memory is being quite selective in what it actually remembers. If Jay was that great of a three point shooter he would not have left Valpo. 

[chef]

Jay shot 29.2% from 3 last year.

[talksalot]

OK, so explain the game at the Wolstein Center tonight (Monday 1/7)...Cleveland State pounds UIC.  Go Figure.

[HC]

UIc's record in non conference doesn't reflect who they are, its a fraud. Been saying that for weeks. Although after seeing CSU I didn't think they'd beat anyone.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Home helps.  Plus turnovers (CSU wins 14-18) and shooting (19/45, 42.2% vs 14/42, 33.3%). 

I'm shocked by how thin it seems every other HL team is except us:

Players averaging 17+ mpg, HL (10+ games played, or 2/3 season thus far):
VU 8 (+ dority who will get there soon, 7 gp)
Milwaukee 7 (led by #HLPOY2013 Jordan Aaron, 35.9!)
WSU 7
GB 7
Loyola 7
UIC 6
YSU 6
Det 6
CSU 5 (!!!, but Grady is hurt)

[HC]

Detroits depth is so shallow, I believe their starters scored every point in the game against Green Bay.

[motowntitan]

Detroits depth is so shallow, I believe their starters scored every point in the game against Green Bay.

That is an interesting statement.  The Horizon League has 20 players that are averaging double digits ppg as of today.  Soucre=ESPn- Does not include Dority or Gulley (not enough games?)  The breakdown of players on the list is as follows:

Detroit=5
UIC=3
YSU=3
GB=2
Valpo=2
WSU=2
CSU=1
Loyola=1
Milw=1

Since you brought up the shallowness in relations to points- can't a team be shallow if they only have 3 starters that average double digits and then the next 6 guys be nowhere close to that?

   





     

[HC]

They sure can, but can a team thrive with only 5 guys scoring all the points? I sure hope not!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Dude, you just proved my point:  you're shallow.  The entire rest of your team barely averages double digits (12.1 points).  We have a guy who does better than that by himself coming off the bench.

It's ok since it's not like you're not doing poorly, but you're shallower than People Magazine.  We'll see how that goes for us both.

[valporun]

In watching a few Detroit games this season, I've noticed Ray doesn't use much of the bench, so he would have very shallow depth in his rotations.This would explain why his starters scored all of the points in Saturday's game against Green Bay.

[chef]

It's nice to have depth, but it can be overrated. Thad Matta has had great success over the years usually playing 6 or 7. Coach K's rotation is usually 7 or 8. DePaul reached the final four with all five starters playing 40 minutes. Detroit did cruise through the HL tournament last year with their top players going huge minutes. I think players can play with more confidence knowing they're not going to be pulled if they make a mistake. You think Ryan Broekhoff or Ray McCallum ever think, "If I screw up, I'm going to get yanked?" I doubt it. But, I bet a lot of other players in the league are thinking that.

[bbtds]

OK, so explain the game at the Wolstein Center tonight (Monday 1/7)...Cleveland State pounds UIC.  Go Figure.

I think the biggest difference between when Cleveland State played Valpo on Friday and the Vikings game against the Flames tonight/Monday was Tim Kamczyc. Against Valpo he had no points in 23 minutes. Against UIC he had 13 points in 31 minutes. A much more typical performance for the only senior in the Vikings starting line-up.

Gary Waters Postgame vs. UIC (Jan. 7)

MBK Highlights vs. UIC (Jan. 7)   

[VULB#62]

It's nice to have depth, but it can be overrated. Thad Matta has had great success over the years usually playing 6 or 7. Coach K's rotation is usually 7 or 8. DePaul reached the final four with all five starters playing 40 minutes. Detroit did cruise through the HL tournament last year with their top players going huge minutes. I think players can play with more confidence knowing they're not going to be pulled if they make a mistake. You think Ryan Broekhoff or Ray McCallum ever think, "If I screw up, I'm going to get yanked?" I doubt it. But, I bet a lot of other players in the league are thinking that.

I have been wondering the same thing, Chef, but as a less sophisticated fan.  Yah, it's nice to have lots of depth and little drop-off 1-10 or 12, but eventually don't you have to settle on a 7-8 man core that plays almost all of your minutes in tough games to ensure the highest winning potential and to harden those 7 or 8 for a post season run? Isn't there a point where, though it's been pleasant to spread the minutes around and give everyone a share, it's time to put the pedal to the metal?

[vu72]

Recently (can't remember which coach--may have been a Horizon League guy) I heard an interview with a coach who had just recently gotten his full squad available as has Bryce.  This coach said that he is still trying different combinations as it takes time to get everyone on the same page, or at least put guys together who seem to get the most out of each other.  This seems to be part of our problem, with the addition of a bunch of talent.  As Bryce also said, it is kind of like the Lakers in that just adding talent doesn't automatically mean you are going to win right away.

It is time to get our act together and we'll know more very shortly.  If we don't beat UIC like a drum, let alone lose, then the issues go a lot deeper than chemistry.

Remember, in 97-98 we started out 8-7 over our first 15 games, including a 21 point loss at UIC.  Things turned out OK. 

[crusadermoe]

Thanks for the facts on Jay Harris.    My memory really was bad.    I never liked his defensive game or ability to drive to the hoop, but I did think he was a good shooter.  I must only be remembering the hot streaks.   

Hoping we shut down UIC Wednesday night.    Until the offense starts clicking, the defense has to hold the line.

[EddieCabot]

Recently (can't remember which coach--may have been a Horizon League guy) I heard an interview with a coach who had just recently gotten his full squad available as has Bryce.  This coach said that he is still trying different combinations as it takes time to get everyone on the same page, or at least put guys together who seem to get the most out of each other.  This seems to be part of our problem, with the addition of a bunch of talent.  As Bryce also said, it is kind of like the Lakers in that just adding talent doesn't automatically mean you are going to win right away.

It is time to get our act together and we'll know more very shortly.  If we don't beat UIC like a drum, let alone lose, then the issues go a lot deeper than chemistry.

Remember, in 97-98 we started out 8-7 over our first 15 games, including a 21 point loss at UIC.  Things turned out OK. 

It certainly is a challenge when you add so many talented players to an already talented roster.  The Capobianco injury, the addition of Dority mid-year and the uncertainty around Rossi's status have clearly added to the difficulty of creating chemistry and establishing a rotation.  I wrote several weeks ago that I thought Bryce might have things sorted out by mid-January and still think that should happen unless the Boggs injury continues to impact things.

Luckily, Valpo did return six seniors and most of the additions are upperclass transfers, so it does make the situation manageable.  As vu72 points out, early season struggles can be overcome.  No reason to believe this team won't continue to improve throughout the season.

[bbtds]

Recently (can't remember which coach--may have been a Horizon League guy) I heard an interview with a coach who had just recently gotten his full squad available as has Bryce.  This coach said that he is still trying different combinations as it takes time to get everyone on the same page, or at least put guys together who seem to get the most out of each other.  This seems to be part of our problem, with the addition of a bunch of talent.  As Bryce also said, it is kind of like the Lakers in that just adding talent doesn't automatically mean you are going to win right away.

It is time to get our act together and we'll know more very shortly.  If we don't beat UIC like a drum, let alone lose, then the issues go a lot deeper than chemistry.

Remember, in 97-98 we started out 8-7 over our first 15 games, including a 21 point loss at UIC.  Things turned out OK. 

It certainly is a challenge when you add so many talented players to an already talented roster.  The Capobianco injury, the addition of Dority mid-year and the uncertainty around Rossi's status have clearly added to the difficulty of creating chemistry and establishing a rotation.  I wrote several weeks ago that I thought Bryce might have things sorted out by mid-January and still think that should happen unless the Boggs injury continues to impact things.

Luckily, Valpo did return six seniors and most of the additions are upperclass transfers, so it does make the situation manageable.  As vu72 points out, early season struggles can be overcome.  No reason to believe this team won't continue to improve throughout the season.

I would feel a lot more favorable about Valpo's chances if the amount of turnovers would start to fall.

[valpo84]

As I recall from last year, this team hit it's stride from about the 2d half of January thru mid-Feb when we started battling some injuries. From Jan 13 to Feb 9 we won 8 of 9, the only loss to GB at GB. We started conference play 3-2 but 2-2 after the Butler win. In YSU, Edwards started for KVW and Vucic played 14 mins. So, I guess I'm not as consternated as others. It still comes down to gelling as we enter March (and being healthy). We will be right where we want to be in the conference race, although agree the next 6 are uber-important.

[oklahomamick]

Thanks for the facts on Jay Harris. My memory really was bad. I never liked his defensive game or ability to drive to the hoop, but I did think he was a good shooter.

Ball handling skills were sub par too.  Detroit gave him fits in the HL Championship as he turned the ball over a lot.  But he was only a freshman....

[Valpo89]

I've said it before and Todd has probably talked about it on the radio. Matt Kenney is the X factor on this team.
I've run the numbers. In the five losses, Matt has made 7 of 21 shots (33 percent - bad) overall and 5 of 10 3-pointers (50 percent, good) for a total of 22 points. That's an average of 4.4 points per game, but that is also skewed somewhat with a 10-point performance at St. Louis. In the 11 wins, he is 30 of 67 from the floor (44.7 percent, decent) and 11 of 38 (29 percent, not great) and has averaged 7.3 points. His best games are some of Valpo's best team performances - Northern Illinois (16 points), Kent State (16 points), IUPUI (15 points) and Cleveland State (14 points). His numbers aren't overly impressive, but it shows when Matt is aggressive, it is good for the team.
By extension, Will Bogan is also key. In the losses, he's averaged 2.4 points (3, 3, 6, 0 and 0 for point totals). He is 4 for 15 from 3-point range in the losses. In the wins, he's averaged 5.7 while shooting 43.2 percent from 3-point range (16 of 37). Bogan's numbers are a bit inflated by 14 points vs. Purdue Cal.
The chef makes a great point about depth. Bryce has a lot of players who think they should be on the floor. When they get their chance, maybe they try too hard. When things go badly, it snowballs. I think that was the case in the Loyola game. They screwed up, they sat. I think Dority sat for about 10 consecutive minutes in the first half of the Loyola game. Bogan was 0 for 3 from 3, and only played 13 minutes.
It just makes Bryce's job that much more difficult, finding the right combinations and figuring out who is going to be hot that night. But again, I'll stand by my point that Kenney has to play well for the Crusaders to succeed, as the third guy behind Ryan and Kevin.

[valpotx]

Thanks for the facts on Jay Harris. My memory really was bad. I never liked his defensive game or ability to drive to the hoop, but I did think he was a good shooter.

Ball handling skills were sub par too.  Detroit gave him fits in the HL Championship as he turned the ball over a lot.  But he was only a freshman....

Harris was a So last year

[covufan]

OK, so explain the game at the Wolstein Center tonight (Monday 1/7)...Cleveland State pounds UIC.  Go Figure.

There is no explanation.  Once HL play starts, all previous games/standings/rankings go out the window.  Case in point - Loyola at Valpo. 

This is going to be a tough league this year.  It will be interesting to watch how Bryce and the team mature during league play, hopefully in a good surprising way.