1/17: Valpo @ Detroit Game Thread oh and lots of giveaways!

[HC]

http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/cuts-and-shaves-free-haircuts-giveaway.html

Oh boy this is going to be fun!

[valpotx]

I see us pulling this one out, based on Detroit's inability to hit their FTs:

Valpo 71
Detroit 63

[vu72]

I see us pulling this one out, based on Detroit's inability to hit their FTs:

Valpo 71
Detroit 63

I wouldn't count on that.  The announcers yesterday were saying how they normally are pretty good--70%ish as I recall. Even McCallum was missing them.

[HC]

Contest #1 is now open, http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/beatdetroit-contest-1-predict-final.html

Normally they are decent at the line.  I think someone from CSU, probably @pronkville, snuck down before the game and at the half and tightened the rims on the Detroit hoop.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I keep finding new and fun ways to illustrate the ineptness of Detroit's bench.

How about A QUIZ!??!

Detroit's ENTIRE roster outside of their starting 5 has scored fewer points this season than
a)  Bogan plus 9 games' worth of Dority
b)  Coleman plus Boggs
c)  Rossi and Capo, plus Kenney
d)  All of the above

(No Bryce rookie cards or haircuts for the right answer, sadly.)

[covufan]

I think Detroit will be looking to avenge their loss, but VU will hit the boards, control the ball and come out winners.

Valpo  -  73
Detroit -  71

[talksalot]

THEY are 9-0 at home, wins over Northern Michigan, Rochester Coll and these D1 with RealTime RPI numbers:   Drake 182, Toledo 191, Alabama State 323, Akron 82, Canisius 119, UWM 318 & Green Bay 192.  They have played in some really tough arenas:  Syracuse, St. Johns, Miami (FL) and Pittsburgh.... all losses.

Valpo Road Wins:  Kent 160, Missouri State 238, Murray State 71, UIC 112 and UWM 318

Common Opponents:   Valpo Beats Cleveland State by 24, UDM LOST to Cleveland State by 12;  Valpo beat UWM by 24, UDM beat Cleveland State by 15.

I predict this game will be won/lost by Fouls on the Big Guys... ours or theirs.   Not necessarily the free throws resulting from the fouls, but who gets into foul trouble and lets the other team's bigs have fun underneath.

Look at Points in the Paint for their last two games:  54 in the win over YST (to 32) and the Cleveland State game, both teams had 38.    We're going to need Bobby to step and start scoring on those put backs.

I'm feeling a 15 point game... I hope we're on the good side!

[bbtds]

Common Opponents:   Valpo Beats Cleveland State by 24, UDM LOST to Cleveland State by 12;  Valpo beat UWM by 24, UDM beat Cleveland State by 15.

Somethings wrong here. Detroit has not played Cleveland State twice. Did you mean Detroit beat Milwaukee by 15?

[HC]

http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/beatdetroit-contest-2.html?m=1

2nd game contest open. Predict Rowdy's first half combined total of points + rebounds.

I think LaPorteAve may have taken a shot at me there, but since no one else is playing his quiz I will guess D?! 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

No shot!  I don't have any cool prizes, but if I did I would give them to you.

YOU ARE CORRECT!

I would also have accepted

E)  Ray McCallum is overrated.

[wh]

From the Detroit board - Excellent, in-depth pre-game analysis from Commissioner:

Re: Valpo game
by Commissioner » Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:28 pm

Preview: Valparaiso at Detroit, 7:00 p.m., Thursday, January 17, Calihan Hall. Game will be broadcast on ESPNU.

Stakes are pretty obvious: last year Valpo won the Horizon regular season, only to be upset by Detroit in the Conference tournament. This year Valpo and UD were picked to finish 1-2, respectively, in the Horizon League poll and in most other pre-season publications, with a maybe 25% reversing the order of finish. Both teams enter the game at 3-1 in conference play. Detroit has more to lose and correspondingly, I suppose, less to gain, since we're playing at home, and Valpo has already won 2 road games in conference. A Valpo win gives them a big edge over the Titans, and puts them in position to take over the league's top spot on Saturday when they face Wright State. The flip side is that a Valpo loss, beyond being a loss to the Titans, makes their Saturday game a backs to the wall type outing, since a WSU win would then give the Raiders a 3 game lead over Valpo in the loss column. Of course, the Titans also have at stake a 17 game home win streak, tied for 8th longest in the nation. Valpo is the last team to beat the Titans in Calihan Hall, 73-71 last January 6. Titan fans will remember that as one of the low points of the season, with Erik Buggs dribbling the length of the court, almost unconstested, for the winning layup at the buzzer.

No need to say too much about Valpo's personnel because we know them pretty well. It all starts with Ryan Broekhoff, on his way to a second consecutive Horizon POY Award. Broekhoff has moved into second in the league in scoring, behind Ray McCallum, his chief rival for POY. He's 1st in rebounding, 2nd in foul shooting and 3 point shooting, third in overall FG percentage. He may not have the size and tools for an NBA career, but he's a superb mid-major player who can score low or extend out to the perimeter. He passes well and plays solid defense. He comes into Detroit on a string of 3 consecutive double-doubles.

Broekhoff's running mate is senior forward Kevin Van Wijk, another all-conference selection last year. Van Wijk is a bruiser - he's now fouled out of 7 games this year, and his regular foul trouble has limited him to just 22 minutes per game. He still averages 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, and gives Valpo a strong inside presence.

In the back court Valpo goes with the "Killer Bs," Erik Buggs, Will Bogan, and Ben Boggs. All three are active players, solid on defense, but they leave the scoring to the big guys up front. In fact, of late Matt Kenney has been starting in place of Boggs, and Boggs' PT has also dropped sharply because of the arrival of Lavonte Dority, a transfer from South Florida who became eligible in December. Dority brings the Crusaders a third good scoring option to go with Broekhoff and Van Wijk. He's averaging 12.8 ppg in 9 games, 4 as a starter. After Broekhoff, he is probably the biggest 3 point threat on the team, although Bogan can also hit from outside.

Bobby Capobianco, the 6-10 Indiana transfer, provides added bulk inside and means Valpo doesn't miss much when Van Wijk hits the bench with foul trouble. Jordan Coleman, a 6-4 transfer from Hawaii, also plays regularly. Between the Killer Bs, Kenney, Dority, and Coleman, Valpo comes at the guard position in waves. If Calliste is limited from getting bashed in the nose at Cleveland State, we could have some real depth problems there. The 6-10 Jamaican sophomore Vashil Fernandez is also available in a pinch. Alex Rossi, a transfer from California who can hit the trey, is out with an unspecified injury.

This should be another high scoring game - the two teams are 1st and 3rd in the Horizon in points per game, and have the two highest shooting percentages in the league. But Valpo is a better defensive team and Detroit's 3 point defense is always a problem, especially with someone like Broekhoff. Broekhoff is not only an excellent three-point shooter but his size can create mismatches even when Detroit rotates quickly enough to get a man on him. Broekhoff put up 26 points on the Titans last year at Valpo.

A Titan victory will likely be predicated on turnovers. Detroit is first in the league in turnover margin, and Valpo is dead last. We'll have the home court advantage and hopefully bring our 'A' game.

[HC]

You can tell he hasn't watched us play much recently. Boggs pt down due to injury, Dority not the next big threat from deep he just shoots the most (yo, commish remember what Bogan did at your place last year). Regardless, not bad from an outsider.

#BeatDetroit

[vu72]

I thought the commissioner's analysis was spot on, fair, and well written. It will likely come down to turnovers. Ryan and Ray will get their 20 plus.  It is how well the other's compete that will tell the story.

[HC]

Definitely fair and well written. It's hard to breakdown a team you don't watch on a regular basis. He did a fine job.

[EddieCabot]

I keep finding new and fun ways to illustrate the ineptness of Detroit's bench.

How about A QUIZ!??!

Detroit's ENTIRE roster outside of their starting 5 has scored fewer points this season than
a)  Bogan plus 9 games' worth of Dority
b)  Coleman plus Boggs
c)  Rossi and Capo, plus Kenney
d)  All of the above

(No Bryce rookie cards or haircuts for the right answer, sadly.)

Here's a follow up question ... who has scored more points this season:
a) Detroit's starters (in 17 games).
b) Valpo's entire roster, excluding Matt Kenney (in 18 games).

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Actually, that makes my point even better, so thank you:  only a tempo-free comparison would be apples 2 applez.

--Detroit, 50th in poss/gm, averages 71.2 possessions/game and gets 77.8 ppg, or 1.09 points-per-possession.
--We, 244th (!) in poss/gm, average 65.8 possessions/game and get 68.9 ppg, or 1.05 points-per-possession.

A marginal difference which, given that our eFG% is 53.4 and theirs only 50.4, can solely be ascribed to turnovers (and our marked propensity therefore/or their reluctance to indulge in them).

SO when it comes down to scoring, we're every bit as good at it (25th in the nation in True Shooting %; they're 97th) as they.  AND we have a bench.

Speaking of whom, I almost forgot the kicker: your comparison means the Detroit bench is EVEN WORSE than I originally described, because they play at a much higher tempo than we do (50th vs. 244th).
OF COURSE Detroit's starters score a lot of points, Eddie:  they HAVE to!  Who else is gonna fill the hoop?
(NOT NJOKU)

I mean, this is candy from a diabetic, but hey why not:
--Detroit's starters have logged nearly 75% of their team's minutes this year.
--Our starters log 62.7% of our minutes.  That's an entire extra game on Detroit's starters' legs every 8 games.

Detroit's bench, points-per-possession:  0.164
JUST Bogan and Dority, points-per-possession (even counting all the possessions that Dority wore warmups for, even): 0.168 

Gets worse:  points per minute played...Detroit Bench 0.23 / Bogan & Dority 0.3...etc. etc. 
Let's not forget this is "shell-of-2011-Will-Bogan" I'm running out here too.


Bogan-n-Dority:  the I SPY for the new generation*

(* owen wilson & eddie murphy?  never happened)

BOOM / michael scott voice:  THREAT NEUTRALIZED

In other news, we're FIFTH in the nation in people fouling out! WOOt.  Oh, and NINTH in DREB%.  KILLIN' it.

[valpotx]

I will enjoy not seeing Lowe and Holman inside.  Our guys were so panicked to go inside the last few years because of those two.

In regards to the analysis by Commish, it was pretty good for not seeing us often.  I would say that KVW would still average 22-25 minutes regardless of foul trouble, as Bryce wants to limit his injury issues.

[vu72]

Found this Detroit "Highlite" video on their fan site.  Pretty funny in that their highlites a filmed in front of a pretty empty house!  Nice fan support.  I'm guessing that even Detroit will bring a pretty good crowd out for this game.  If we can keep them rattled and away from the street ball then I thinkwe will be fine.  If it gets into a track meet we are toast.

http://youtu.be/lEL_3OmWoXM

[HC]

A little PPS preview if anyone is interested.

http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/pps-preview-for-beatdetroit.html

[HC]

http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/how-i-would-beatdetroit.html
Here is how I would consider attacking Detroit.  This is probably why I teach middle school and not coach division 1 basketball.

Don't forget to get your final score predictions and Ryan's first half stats prediction posted in the comments sections. 

#BeatDetroit
#219

[crusadermoe]

yeah Holman was a beast.     Cory Johnson stood up to him in a game at Valpo and that was a key.

[bbtds]

It seems everybody in Las Vegas has Detroit this morning by 3.5 to 4 points.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/offshore/line-movement/valparaiso-@-detroit-mercy.cfm/date/01-17-13/time/1900

[vu84v2]

Valpo 67 Detroit 64   

I think that Valpo is on a trend of gradual improvement and feeling a little more confident.  This is definitely a key game to get.

[VUfan]

Valpo Needs this one VU 65 DMU 62 control the tempo! hope I'm right!!

[vu72]

If you concede that Ray Jr. and Ryan are a push talent wise and effect on the game wise (I don't) and say that Minnerath and KVW are a push, then the difference in the game comes down to the rest of the team. Detroit lacks depth and we don't. Will our playing 9 wear them down? Can any of our guys get hot and hit some 3's? 

I presume there will be a decent crowd, who knows, but I'm betting that we matchup well and much better than last year because they are not nearly as big inside.  With Bobby and KVW anternating I expect some open looks.  If we can play within ourselves and not allow a track meet, we win.  If it goes to sreet ball they win.