1/30/13 Valpo at Youngstown State game thread

[truth219]

The reason why we lost is 3-20 from 3...19-31 from free throw. In our pas sucess van wijk has been a key and we didn't turn that key tonight.

[bbtds]

van wijk has been a key and we didn't turn that key tonight.

Those last two free throws by Van Wijk were just awful for a guy who has improved his free throw percentage greatly over last year. You could tell the team was just not into the comeback at that point in the game.

[truth219]

Its frustrating when we try to force our 3 point shooting. If we are not making them...look inside

[HC]

http://sectionee.blogspot.com/2013/01/ysu-recap-blarg.html?m=1

I was really discouraged by Ryan's poor play and his two game shooting slump and the whole teams lack of energy. I hope Ryan is just off the last two games and not battling a minor injury or illness.

[govalpogo]

I Am Very Disappointed! [HQ 1080p] [Gary Oldman - 5th Element]

Thank you bbtds

[wh]

Like Tex said, 1 loss is not the end of the world, but it does change a lot of the discussion we've been having about things that would make this a special season. At this point our BB opponent is basically inconsequential.  The only thing that really matters is finding a way to win the league, host the tournament, and hopefully win it.  We now have too many bad losses and RPI killers to hope for anything better than a 15 seed (a 14 would be a huge long shot) and inevitable 1st round loss.  That would still be a good season and hopefully set the stage for better things in the future.  Anything less than that from this experienced, talented group would be a disappointment the likes of which none of us will forget for a very long time.     

[KL31NY]

Also an ungodly performance by the Penguins.  Their basket has been an ocean tonight, ours a dixie cup.

Nice contrast to sum things up. Also, you get points for using water over ice as an analogy for a Penguins game.

[wh]

I didn't listen to the radio post-game interview with Luke Gore. If anyone did, would you please share what he had to say about why we played so badly. 

One caveat - If he referred to sickness, injuries, too much time between games, delayed flight, not being in their own beds, time change adjustment, or other "extenuating circumstances," simply ignore my request. 

[truth219]

Let's be honest, has this season been special so far.

[bbtds]

How does one actually embed these videos?

Click on the 2nd icon from the left on the bottom row under the "I".  The icon is for "insert hyperlink."

Then insert your website address between the "url" symbols.

[agibson]

Let's be honest, has this season been special so far.

Tied for best D1 start at 15-5?  Presumably best Horizon League start at 6-1?

That's not bad.

[crusadermoe]

This would have been one of the 3 road games I would have seen us most likely to lose.   Not a huge upset.

Most likely 3 losses were Detroit, Green Bay, and YSU.  I expected one loss at home, but not to Loyola.   4 losses is our pace at the half.   Detroit is the key team to keep out of the top two and we still control our destiny for any tie with them.

Just play on. 

[agibson]

I didn't listen to the radio post-game interview with Luke Gore. If anyone did, would you please share what he had to say about why we played so badly. 

I usually quite enjoy the post-games.  But, I didn't have the stomach to listen to this one, nor after the Loyola loss.

[vu72]

I'll get crucified for this but i'll say it anyway.  We played AS BAD  as possible, and on the road, and all the while, YSU shoots lights out, and, we lose by 12?  (that has to be some sort of run on sentence!)

A few thing were terribly wrong from the get go with Matt effectively out and Rowdy (maybe sick as well?) playing not his best game. We miss what? 12 free throws? Still, we only turned it over 12 times while shooting 15% from the 3.  If anybody hasn't noticed yet, save Ryan, we aren't a very good shooting team and even KV missed bunnies tonight.

Terrible game but its over. Now to figure it out and beat Milwaukee.  If we don't, then we have other issues. I think Ryan is under the weather (just a guess) but this is where our depth is suppose to kick in.  Let's hope so...

[valpo84]

Was at the game. Depth did keep us in it -- Boggs, Coleman and Dority played better and covered for lapses. We failed to feed KVW enough. Shooting percentages were atrocious. They were open looks. We have got to knock them down, but when we miss the first couple, we clutch. I'll take win 9/10 and then have a clunker on the long and windy road. We need to duplicate the 6-2 in 2d half and we should clinch home court.

[vu72]

Like Tex said, 1 loss is not the end of the world, but it does change a lot of the discussion we've been having about things that would make this a special season. At this point our BB opponent is basically inconsequential.  The only thing that really matters is finding a way to win the league, host the tournament, and hopefully win it.  We now have too many bad losses and RPI killers to hope for anything better than a 15 seed (a 14 would be a huge long shot) and inevitable 1st round loss.  That would still be a good season and hopefully set the stage for better things in the future.  Anything less than that from this experienced, talented group would be a disappointment the likes of which none of us will forget for a very long time.     

wh, you know I love ya, but I don't think you realize how many bad conference leaders are out there. Right now,the Horizon is ranked 12th in the Sagarin's and Valpo/Detroit are around 80.  I counted 12 conferences ranked lower than the horizon with leaders ranked lower than 80.

Examples: The Southeastern, ranked 32 and their leader Southern U ranked 200.  The Atlantic Sun ranked 24 and their leader Mercer, ranked 152.  The Big South,ranked 28 and their leader Charelston Southern, ranked 155.  The Mid-Eastern, ranked 30 and their leader NC Central ranked 182.  The North East, ranked 25 and their leader Robert Morris ranked 150.

I could go on.  We are very close to out ranking the leaders of the MAC, Sunbelt, WAC, Southland, and Summit and we have beaten Murray State the leader of the OVC.  All these conferences are ranked lower than the Horizon. With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

Let's hope we can continue this debate coming into the Selection Show!   

[bbtds]

With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

I agree. For a team that beat Murray State, Missouri State, ran off 6 straight wins in conference and will probably win 6 more in conference a 15 seed is extremely low. Certainly Valpo is a better team than 4 to 7 of the lowest conference autobid winners. The biggest problem will be winning our own conference auto-bid and that starts with reversing the trend that started with the poor play against YSU. As Bryce said the key is how the team responds to this loss/clunker of a game.

[valpo95]

Let's keep this in a bit of perspective.  Road wins in conference are difficult -- I did this pretty quickly, so maybe I missed  a game, but the road record in conference is as follows: 

Valpo  3-1
Det     3-1
YSU    2-2
GB      1-3
WSU   2-2
UIC   1-3
LOY   2-2
CSU   0-5
MIL    0-4

Further, Valpo still has road games at CSU and Loyola as well -- not easy games mind you (consider the previous meeting with Loyola), but definitely winnable road games based on the standings. (The other two road games are @ WSU and GB).

So, at the half-way point in the conference season, Valpo is the best team in the conference and no team has a better road record.  Most of us would have been pleased with that result if it had been made at the start of the season, so  hopefull the team can go out and win them one game at a time. 

[vuweathernerd]

Let's keep this in a bit of perspective.  Road wins in conference are difficult -- I did this pretty quickly, so maybe I missed  a game, but the road record in conference is as follows: 

Valpo  3-1
Det     3-1
YSU    2-2
GB      1-3
WSU   2-2
UIC   1-3
LOY   2-2
CSU   0-5
MIL    0-4

Further, Valpo still has road games at CSU and Loyola as well -- not easy games mind you (consider the previous meeting with Loyola), but definitely winnable road games based on the standings. (The other two road games are @ WSU and GB).

So, at the half-way point in the conference season, Valpo is the best team in the conference and no team has a better road record.  Most of us would have been pleased with that result if it had been made at the start of the season, so  hopefull the team can go out and win them one game at a time. 

i don't think you're giving green bay enough credit. in my mind, that's our toughest road game remaining. green bay is incredibly resilient, especially at home. that game has all the makings of a potential disaster.

[valpotx]

Let's be thankful that there really aren't any games that are assured road wins in the HL.  We used to beat up on the Summit on the road by double digits often, which just shows how great of a conference move we FINALLY made.  If we win the BB game and go 6-2 in the second half of conference, we will be 23-8 heading into the conference tournament.  In order to get into the NCAA tournament we have to win our conference tournament, and would thus be 25-8 at that point.  It is highly unlikely that we would be lower than a 14 seed with that record/assumed increased RPI, probably more of a 13. 

[zvillehaze]

Like Tex said, 1 loss is not the end of the world, but it does change a lot of the discussion we've been having about things that would make this a special season. At this point our BB opponent is basically inconsequential.  The only thing that really matters is finding a way to win the league, host the tournament, and hopefully win it.  We now have too many bad losses and RPI killers to hope for anything better than a 15 seed (a 14 would be a huge long shot) and inevitable 1st round loss.  That would still be a good season and hopefully set the stage for better things in the future.  Anything less than that from this experienced, talented group would be a disappointment the likes of which none of us will forget for a very long time.     

wh, you know I love ya, but I don't think you realize how many bad conference leaders are out there. Right now,the Horizon is ranked 12th in the Sagarin's and Valpo/Detroit are around 80.  I counted 12 conferences ranked lower than the horizon with leaders ranked lower than 80.

Examples: The Southeastern, ranked 32 and their leader Southern U ranked 200.  The Atlantic Sun ranked 24 and their leader Mercer, ranked 152.  The Big South,ranked 28 and their leader Charelston Southern, ranked 155.  The Mid-Eastern, ranked 30 and their leader NC Central ranked 182.  The North East, ranked 25 and their leader Robert Morris ranked 150.

I could go on.  We are very close to out ranking the leaders of the MAC, Sunbelt, WAC, Southland, and Summit and we have beaten Murray State the leader of the OVC.  All these conferences are ranked lower than the Horizon. With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

Let's hope we can continue this debate coming into the Selection Show!   

I'd say that vu72 is correct that upsets in the tournaments for lower ranked conferences could definitely improve seeding for Valpo.  With that said, I do have a couple of corrections to his comments.
1.  Murray State doesn't lead the OVC; Belmont does and they currently have a RPI of 14.
2.  Remember that there are six #16 seeds, so counting from the bottom, the distribution goes ... 1-6 worst = #16, 7-10 worst = #15, 11-14 = #14, 15-18 = #13, etc.

Here's a snapshot based upon this morning's RPI (not saying this is the most relevant number, so feel free to replace with your favorite metric) for the Horizon and 19 conferences ranked below the Horizon.  Also, I picked the team in each conference with the best RPI, whether or not they were in first place):

Teams with RPI lower than Valpo (11 teams total): NC Asheville(176), Southern(174), Wagner(139), Savannah St(124), Davidson(121), George Mason(116), Florida Gulf Coast(113), Montana(111), Long Beach(108), Iona(97), Harvard(92)

Valpo(91) - 12th in ranking from worst to best (would slot as a 14 seed using only this metric)

Teams with RPI better than Valpo (8 total): Stony Brook(82), S.F.Austin(76), Akron(67), N.D.State(56), Bucknell(53), LA Tech(44), Middle Tenn(29), Belmont(14)

Definitely nothing definitive here, but it does provide justification for why Valpo is appearing on the #14 line right now and shows some of the higher rated teams it must pass (or who must be upset in their tournaments) for Valpo to move higher.

[agibson]

With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

Maybe this has already been covered - sorry to be lazy and reply without reading the whole thread.

I had to remind myself what the format is like these days... Last year, with the play-ins ("first four") there were effectively six 16 seeds, five 14 seeds, and five 12 seeds.  Not sure if that pattern is fixed.

If it is, getting a 15 seed means there are at least six teams worse than you.  Getting a 13 seed means there are at least 15 teams worse than you.

I think I've got that right?

[StlVUFan]

With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

Maybe this has already been covered - sorry to be lazy and reply without reading the whole thread.

I had to remind myself what the format is like these days... Last year, with the play-ins ("first four") there were effectively six 16 seeds, five 14 seeds, and five 12 seeds.  Not sure if that pattern is fixed.

If it is, getting a 15 seed means there are at least six teams worse than you.  Getting a 13 seed means there are at least 15 teams worse than you.

I think I've got that right?

I think it's always been 4 16s, but the other 4 have sometimes been 2 11s and 2 12s or else 4 12s.

I think it depends on how strong or weak the bubble is, or something along those lines.

[zvillehaze]

With a few upsets and our strong finish it is not inconceivable to come in as a 12, but probably a 13, but certainly not a 15, which would mean there were only 4 to 7 teams ranked lower than us.

Maybe this has already been covered - sorry to be lazy and reply without reading the whole thread.

I had to remind myself what the format is like these days... Last year, with the play-ins ("first four") there were effectively six 16 seeds, five 14 seeds, and five 12 seeds.  Not sure if that pattern is fixed.

If it is, getting a 15 seed means there are at least six teams worse than you.  Getting a 13 seed means there are at least 15 teams worse than you.

I think I've got that right?

I think it's always been 4 16s, but the other 4 have sometimes been 2 11s and 2 12s or else 4 12s.

I think it depends on how strong or weak the bubble is, or something along those lines.

The new "First Four" round is pretty confusing, so I did a little research.  In 2011, these games were on the #11 and #12 lines, while last year they were a #12 and a #14. 

The selection committee takes the 31 automatic qualifiers and then selects the best 37 at-large teams to fill the 68 team field.  All teams are then ranked 1 through 68 and brackets are set as follows:
1.  The four lowest rated teams play for an opportunity to advance to the round of 64.  By definition, these will always be on the #16 line.
2.  The four lowest rated at-large teams will also play to advance to the round of 64.  Which line these games fall on is determined by where they fall in the overall rankings.

It really comes down to how many of the automatic qualifiers are rated below the last at-large teams.  In a year where lots of "mediocre" teams get in by winning their conference tournaments, the at-large First Four games will be on the #11 or #12 lines.  In a year where traditionally lower rated conferences have good teams winning their tournaments (Belmont or Middle Tenn, for example), those teams will be seeded higher than the last at-large teams getting in and will push the at-large First Four games down a few lines, to #13 or even #14 like last year.

Also, keep in mind that the committee has flexibility to move teams up or down one line on the bracket to avoid things like regular season rematches, etc.

[StlVUFan]

Thanks, zville, that's a much clearer explanation of what I was trying to convey (but couldn't speak intelligently about it).  What I probably should have said is: there is no fixed number for what seed the higher 4 teams will be who compete in Dayton.  It all depends on the field.  I'm guessing the other 4 will always be #16s.