"Who's The Best Player in the Horizon League?" Put to the Numbers

[KL31NY]

Here's one angle to view which players in the conference are the best and which players are the most valuable. I'm using Player Efficiency Rating, specifically a shorthand PER formula since the full formula for PER is a little more complicated in NCAABB than NBA.

Below I have a link to the first report. I hope to have at least one update every week within this thread. The players in this report are separated by team, ordered based on average scoring, and include (by request) Valpo's top players with reference to PER, Detroit's five starters, Keifer Sykes and Alec Brown of Green Bay, Ben Averkamp of Loyola, and Damian Eargle of Youngstown State. I also added Kendrick Perry of YSU after reviewing his PER compared to Eargle, one of the requested players.

Here you go! http://tinyurl.com/012713PER

What are your thoughts? Good, bad, questions, criticisms, more players, less players, whatever. Let it begin!

[vu72]

How about putting them in order, best to worst, for us guys who have ADD and can't focus past about two numbers!

[KL31NY]

I would do that if I had the time/ease to calculate everyone's PER. I don't want to rank them like I know for sure if these players have the best rankings. If anyone knows someone who keeps track of each team's numbers with the Automated Scorebook, I'll do all players. Until then, I feel most comfortable separating by teams, requests.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Wow!  I would not have thought KVW up that high too--that's really amazing.

I will have to add Jordan Aaron myself just for fun.

Also interesting that LVD has a 16.46 and the "3rd banana" is 16.5.  He obviously knows his role

[Pathfinder]

Interesting numbers, though not much different, I think, than most people would rank the players - confirms what we know, more than revealing much new. Ryan is clearly POY; McCallum, Averkamp, Eargle, and Perry would fill out my first team. Van Wijk, despite his high PER, is on the second team - he may be efficient, but each of the other 5 spend substantially more time on the court, and that has value, too. If I'm choosing big men, I like Kevin a lot but I'd go with Eargle and Averkamp, who can stay in the game an extra 7 to 10 minutes.

[agibson]

I wonder about those guidelines ("3rd banana", etc.).  I've seen them before, I forget if it was for college or NBA players, and they seemed a little closer to reality.  Those in your spreadsheet seem... a little inflated.

Are the labels perhaps for the non-pace adjusted versions of the statistic, or some such?   How does the pace adjustment change the numerical results?

In any case, it's good fun to compare across the league.  And to be reminded that we have two _extremely_ efficient players in Rowdy and KVW.

Looking at bbstate.com's statistics (Kyle Whelliston's stats site), in his "Average Efficiency" stat Rowdy is 8th in the country.  Efficiency per possession?  Rowdy's 15th overall.  "True Shooting Percentage"? Kevin #14, Ryan #16, in the country.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well the pro game is 48 minutes, or 20% longer...but aren't the numbers possession-oriented anyway?

If they are in fact NBA numbers, then everything gets multiplied by .8 (Rowdy becomes a 27.78), but the intervals between everyone stay the same.

If not (and they are simply possession-based, not length-of-game-), then, he's just that good

[KL31NY]

Catching up on this latest section of the discussion, "PACE" is the average number of possessions per game, so it already is adjusted for college. It's calculated based off the team totals. Since very possession ends in a shot, free throw(s), or turnover, basically combine them together, make a slight adjusted for offensive rebounds that extend possessions and then divide team minutes divided by five (number of players on the court).

And agibson, if anything the PERs are actually lower than they should be. I just calculated pace for a couple NBA teams and compared them to the official PACE stats on NBA Reference and each team had a higher pace under the formula I have been using which helps decrease PER. Thanks for the opinion though. After a closer look, I might tinker with the formula to make it more realistic...

The ratings guide itself is based off the full formula used in the NBA. It's tough to use that formula since all-NBA games are intra-league while college has conference and non-conference games, which makes it more difficult to calculate the league average needed in the full formula.

[KL31NY]

2ND REPORT: Latest PER figures are available at this link- http://tinyurl.com/020313PER

The most notable change is the addition of four players after seeing fairly good PER's from them (UWGB's Brennan Cougill, UIC's Gary Talton, WSU's Cole Darling and Jerran Young). Apostle mentioned UWM's Jordan Aaron earlier in this thread, but since his PER was only 13.63 (rank of rotation player) I didn't include him in this list.

Despite my thoughts from above, I still have the same formula in use. If I stumble upon something even better, I'll update. Until then, hope you enjoy what I have. Have fun!

[KL31NY]

3RD REPORT: Latest PER figures are available at this link- http://tinyurl.com/021013PER

No changes in players included in the report. The most interesting observation is the big leap Capobianco (aka #No3sBobby) took since last week because of how he stepped up. Most other players had minimal changes either way, including -s for all the Detroit players included.

Compare rankings week-by-week by checking out the previous reports (1- http://tinyurl.com/012713PER, 2- http://tinyurl.com/020313PER)

[KL31NY]

4TH REPORT: Updated PER through today's games: http://tinyurl.com/021713PER

Compare to past reports if you wish (1- http://tinyurl.com/012713PER, 2- http://tinyurl.com/020313PER, 3- http://tinyurl.com/021013PER)

As always, you're encouraged to nominate any players to add to these reports. Hope to have you discuss these figures as well with awards selection coming up in a couple weeks.

[KL31NY]

5TH REPORT: 2nd to last update of the regular season: http://tinyurl.com/022413PER

Look above for the past reports. Depending on my schedule next weekend, I'll get the final regular season report out hopefully Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

[vuweathernerd]

Did anyone else listening to the udm-wichita state game yesterday get a laugh out of the announcers comments about ray jr?

[KL31NY]

Please enlighten us further... I only got home in time to see the final minutes and just heard some comment about how delightful it was to see him play.

[vuweathernerd]

Please enlighten us further... I only got home in time to see the final minutes and just heard some comment about how delightful it was to see him play.

They were talking about how efficient he is (though that was actually true for him yesterday) and unselfish and that he'll easily be a first round draft pick come next year.

[KL31NY]

CBSSports.com: 56th on Jeff Goodman's "Big Board" (Feb. 5th), 53rd pick in Mock Draft (Feb. 5th) http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/players/playerpage/1779891/ray-mccallum
NBADraft.net: 59th on Aran Smith's "Big Board" (Feb. 3rd), 48th pick in Mock Draft (Feb. 20th) http://nbadraft.net/players/ray-mccallum
DraftExpress.com: 42nd pick on Jonathan Givony's Mock Draft (Feb. 11th) http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ray-McCallum-5718/
HoopsReport.com: 42nd pick in Mock Draft (Feb. 24th) http://thehoopsreport.com/draft.aspx
ESPN.com: 35th on Chad Ford's "Big Board" (Feb. 15th) http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mens-college-basketball/rumors/post/_/id/890/is-ray-mccallum-a-first-rounder-in-2013 (Insider access needed)

Between my quick scan of draft updates on fairly reputable sites, ESPN is about the only entity that seems to think Jr has a chance (a good chance at that) to be drafted in the 1st Round this year. If anyone with Insider access wants to post some highlights from the Ford story, please go for it. Other than his notes and judging the broadcaster comments, they seem to think it's obvious that we should agree their belief in Ray's draft status...

As a side note, I'm disappointed Matthew Dellavedova's stock isn't higher. For those that don't know, Dellavedova is a senior PG at St. Mary's (CA). Double figure scorer throughout his career, can also play SG (he started alongside NBA player Patty Mills on the Australian Olympic team). Saw him in person in December, he plays and makes plays like a future NBA player.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Interesting--thanks for doing that, KL.  Doesn't look like a top-29 pick to me.  Nor to anyone else.

And you're right, too bad about Dellavedova--he's even better than our Rowdy, so you'd have to hope it's not an anti-australian bias (doctors call it "Post-LucLongley Syndrome)...

[Kyle321n]

The Junior story is actually pretty short so no real "highlights".

Here's the story

Detroit point guard Ray McCallum has moved up to No. 35 on Chad Ford's latest Big Board. What are the chances that the junior leaves school early for the NBA?

McCallum's minutes are up only slightly from where they were last year, but his numbers have made a big jump. His scoring is up from 15.4 to 18.8 ppg, his field goal percentage is up from 45.8 to 49.9, his assist-to-turnover ratio has went from 1.79 to 2.31.

On Tuesday, he padded those stats with a performance the college basketball world hasn't seen in nearly a decade. Ryan Feldman of ESPN Stats & Info explains McCallum's accomplishment:

"McCallum had 16 points, 13 rebounds, eight assists and four steals in Detroit's win over Cleveland State. McCallum set career highs in offensive rebounds (seven) and total rebounds. He's the first player with at least 16 points, 13 rebounds, eight assists and four steals in a regulation game since Connecticut 's Ben Gordon (17 points, 16 rebounds, 11 assists, five steals vs Iona) in December 2003."

That's the kind of stat-sheet stuffing that gets the attention of NBA scouts, and if McCallum can continue to play his best ball at the end of the season he could solidify a spot as a late first-rounder in 2013. Right now, Ford lists him as the No. 7 point guard but if he continues to put up big games he could conceivably move ahead of guys like Arkansas' B.J. Young, NC State's Lorenzo Brown and Texas' Myck Kabongo. On top of that, there's no certainty that Young, Brown and Kabongo will even enter the draft, and if any return to school that would also help McCallum's chances of being drafted in the first round.

As a junior, McCallum will probably have to feel strongly that he'll be a first-rounder (where contracts are guaranteed) in order for him to leave school early. The fact that he plays for a small school like Detroit makes that especially true.

[KL31NY]

So they love his numbers. As a nerd, I can respect that. I don't take any stock in this 16-13-8-4 crap, reinventing statistical combos like they actually mean something. Once you go past 20-10-10 stuff and get these odd numbers together you lose me.

Thinking of numbers, I rediscovered the "Compare Players" page on StatSheet. Here's Jr vs. someone we all know http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=bryce-drew&i=1&p1=ray-mccallum

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=bryce-drew&bryce-drew=1996-1997&i=1&p1=ray-mccallum

I switched it to his junior year to make it a little more fair comparison.

My takeaway:  is it really that unsurprising that any comparison between the two players also applies to comparison between the two teams (or at least using Rowdy as avatar for Bryce)?

Consider:
--We didn't play Bryce (58th in min, 119th in mpg, and 109th in min%) nearly as many minutes as Ray plays Ray (who is 29th in min, 39th in mpg, and *18th* in min %!).  Rowdy: 

--Like KVW and Rowdy, Bryce has more pts/40 (although he also had more ppg).

--Interestingly, they had similar usage percentages:  Ray 24.6% and Bryce 24.8%--but Ray ranks 375 where Bryce ranked 261st, meaning the game seems to have become *more* star player oriented over the years.

--McCallum has stats, but not quite the efficiency to match them; before efficiency was even a "thing", Bryce was good at it--an ORtg of 127 (!) which was good enough for 7th in the country that year.  McCallum 83rd.  (Broekhoff has always had a phenomenal ORtg--56th soph/2 HL, 63rd jr/2 HL, 50 sr/1 HL)

--McCallum's game got him to the line more, which tracks with memory, but still doesn't explain why Rowdy's doesn't. (SERIOUSLY:  Free Throw Rate last year, Rowdy 290th in the country.  This year: 475th.  What has changed!!??! STILL ANGRY GRR)

--They were both 68th in the country in assists.

--Finally (GRR again) McCallum's TOPG:  just over 2.  Bryce's:  2.5.  Put as a percentage:  McCallum's, just 12.9% of the time; Bryce's 16.8.

Oh well, can't win 'em all.  Just most of them.

[valpotx]

I think that these last few games have given the POY to Ray over Rowdy unfortunately.  Injury and sickness aside, his numbers haven't been good enough these last 4-5 games to secure the award. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=ryan-broekhoff&p1=ray-mccallum

eh.  you decide.

plus, season's not over yet. i'd say us winning outright would help.

[valpotx]

That is comparing them for the full year.  I believe that the HL POY only takes into account the conference season.  Rowdy's numbers have gone down in conference

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://www.bbstate.com/confstats/HL/indiv/PPG/Conf

wondered about that.  well here you are.

[vu72]

That is comparing them for the full year.  I believe that the HL POY only takes into account the conference season.  Rowdy's numbers have gone down in conference

.
I think it's the full year and Rowdy didn't play much during the bracket buster so his rebounding numbers and scoring averages have suffered.  I agree that at this point I think it goes to Ray, hope not!

As for Ray's draft stock, it seems the overall stock of players--quality wise--is down and so this could be a better time to jump in versus waiting, seeing his stock possibly fall, or injury or other factors.  I have a good friend who is a GM of an NBA team and when I saw him recently, his feeling (probably not all that informed, but still...)was that Ray wss "second tier", for what it's worth.