2/16/13 Valpo home to UDM

[talksalot]

I'm guessing we will have a lot to discuss over the next 94+ hours to tip off in the ARC...

The 26th game of the season continues to be a lucky number as we have now won more of those games than any other game counter; and we continue our Dominance on February 12th games at 7-1 over the past 20 years.

Now, let's talk about game #27.   Not a bright spot in the annuls of basketball numerology at Valpo.   We have lost 5 straight game #27.  BUT!  Every one of those has been on the road!   Each time, it was a different HL team... we have never played Detroit in game #27.

In the ARC over the past 20 years we are 5-2, including these events;
'06-07, Homer's 300th win at Valpo 80-56 over Western Illinois
'03-04, 74-66 win over Chicago State that CLINCHED #1 SEED IN MID CON!

Win it for Koala!!

[agibson]

Looks like tickets are selling fairly well.  Maybe not _quite_ as well as Coach Gore suggested   But fairly well.  If you want three seats together, you're upstairs.  And even the mezzanine is filling in pretty nicely.

I wonder if they'll do anything for faculty+staff+students, like they used to do with the Butler games - giving out printed tickets in advance, instead of just walking in.

[valpotx]

Hopefully this game is completely full, as it should be this late in the season for a 1/2 matchup!  Especially considering what Detroit did last year, we need the fans into the game from the opening tip.  I think we pull it out, and win by double digits, with the Rays leaving town with their egos bruised and battered.

Valpo 82
Detroit 70

[valpotx]

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

[wh]

KVW had 20 and 9 tonight.  Given that Detroit has absolutely no one that can stop him, he might be headed for his 2nd POW honors.

[wh]

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

They are an embarrassment to themselves, their fans, and the Horizon League.

[valpopal]

Play-by-Play shows Detroit's starters did not come out of the game until 1:46 left. Detroit was leading by 34 points. Classless.

[vu72]

Their behavior may ultimately come back to bite them when they need to play four games and their thin lineup in beat to heck.  Time will tell...

[bbtds]

Their behavior may ultimately come back to bite them when they need to play four games and their thin lineup in beat to heck.  Time will tell...

You really believe Detroit will finish 4th or lower? Remember that the 3rd place finisher gets a single bye in this year's HL tournament.

[oklahomamick]

This game is extremely important beyond that its Detroit and we hate them. 

Detroit is on the road at Loyola and UIC (should be wins for them).  We still have to play YSU @ home (lost to them before) play @ Loyola (lost to them before) and then finish @ Greeny Bay (difficult to win in Green Bay)

I don't want to put bad thoughts out there and I believe we will win as we are the better team.  BUT, if we lose this one and another, Detroit wins out (as they should) What would happen?  We would be tied for 1st with Detroit.  I don't want to mention if we lose against Detroit and another two....(its possible with the schedule)

Sorry to be Debbie Downer.......

[valpo84]

Can we all slow down, the Horizon conference season is a "game at a time" conference. Detroit is the only game that matters right now. We can worry about YSU, Loyola and Green Bay later (although YSU and Loyola are different clubs than when we last saw them). Detroit is one game on the schedule. Win or lose. We just won 2 games on the road in the middle of February. Enjoy. CSU still has a bracketbuster trip and Temple plus the rest of conference season. We need to only worry about us.

[wh]

This game is extremely important beyond that its Detroit and we hate them. 

Detroit is on the road at Loyola and UIC (should be wins for them).  We still have to play YSU @ home (lost to them before) play @ Loyola (lost to them before) and then finish @ Greeny Bay (difficult to win in Green Bay)

I don't want to put bad thoughts out there and I believe we will win as we are the better team.  BUT, if we lose this one and another, Detroit wins out (as they should) What would happen?  We would be tied for 1st with Detroit.  I don't want to mention if we lose against Detroit and another two....(its possible with the schedule)

Sorry to be Debbie Downer.......

Your comments point out pretty clearly that there are still roadblocks ahead that are not going to be easy to overcome.  Let me offer up something on the other side of the coin.  IF we were to run the table - 4 conf. games, BB, and 2 HL Tournament wins, I estimate that our RPI will improve by another 15 points.  We would also end the regular season on an 11 game winning streak, and won 17 of our final 18 games.  I think that would put us in solid contention for a 13 seed.  I don't think our SOS is good enough to get us anything better, but as others have pointed out a 13 is hugely important toward getting out of the 1st round. 

[oklahomamick]

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

They are an embarrassment to themselves, their fans, and the Horizon League.

A blogger on their website justified the large minutes for the starters in the 30 point blowout; as they were trying to get Jason 1,000 points. 

[vu72]

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

They are an embarrassment to themselves, their fans, and the Horizon League.

A blogger on their website justified the large minutes for the starters in the 30 point blowout; as they were trying to get Jason 1,000 points. 

Really??  Was this the kids final game??  How friggin weak.  I hope the are exhausted on Saturday.

[vuweathernerd]

Can we all slow down, the Horizon conference season is a "game at a time" conference. Detroit is the only game that matters right now. We can worry about YSU, Loyola and Green Bay later (although YSU and Loyola are different clubs than when we last saw them). Detroit is one game on the schedule. Win or lose. We just won 2 games on the road in the middle of February. Enjoy. CSU still has a bracketbuster trip and Temple plus the rest of conference season. We need to only worry about us.

seconded. let's just take care of business to close out the season, and then worry about the conference tourney.

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

They are an embarrassment to themselves, their fans, and the Horizon League.

A blogger on their website justified the large minutes for the starters in the 30 point blowout; as they were trying to get Jason 1,000 points. 

Really??  Was this the kids final game??  How friggin weak.  I hope the are exhausted on Saturday.

absolutely disgraceful. i'd say sr must really be scared of his bench coughing up a 30 point lead, but it was the starters that did it against us. so there's really no excuse.

[valpotx]

You could say that Detroit is a disgRAYce to good sportsmanship 

[FWalum]

Really??  Was this the kids final game??  How friggin weak.  I hope the are exhausted on Saturday.

They won't be.  Detroit is an unbelievably streaky team, emotion rules the day for them so the key to Saturday comes down to playing well in each half before the under 12 media breaks.  If we have starts like the last two games it will go a long way to winning this game.  When they get up and play loose care free unstructured ball is when they are most dangerous.  Get them down early and let the crowd apply the pressure and they could fold.  I don't think UDM is particularly mentally tough on the floor or on the bench.

[talksalot]

Nobody's commented on SC Top 10 this morning...   so I will also ignore the #1 play on the 5:50am Central Time...(I was at the fitness center getting in my workout... )

[agibson]

Nobody's commented on SC Top 10 this morning...   so I will also ignore the #1 play on the 5:50am Central Time...(I was at the fitness center getting in my workout... )

Inquiring minds want to know!  Please fill in the non-ESPN watchers among us.

(Do they archive these things?  I would also like to see their riff on KVW's shot from his derriere.)

[agibson]

IF we were to run the table - 4 conf. games, BB, and 2 HL Tournament wins, I estimate that our RPI will improve by another 15 points.

rpiforecast.com runs the numbers on these things periodically.  Of course, there's speculation involved since it depends on not just our own record, but on the record of lots of other teams.

Their latest is from Feb 11.  http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Valparaiso.html

At that time, before the Wright State game, they gave us a 7.4% chance of winning out the regular season.  (I guess that now jumps to at least 17%, since we overcame one of the biggest hurdles last night.  Though they predict other hurdles are about as high, and UWGB is higher.)  And, if that happens, they predict our RPI would be at #53.

Their prediction for us winning out the regular season _and_ the conference tourney was... actually a slightly lower RPI rank (53.2 vs. 53.1).  And a 3.86% probability (maybe that's now 8.97%).  I'd have thought that two more wins would help our RPI at least a little, but I guess the ranks get pretty dense up in the 50's.  They're home games, of course, but presumably against decent teams...

I've not tried any big bracket forecasting yet.  But, a 53 RPI and a strong record (even if it lacks any signature wins...) sure sounds better than an RPI in the 70's or 80's (or worse) with several conference losses.

[Valpo89]

Doug Anderson had two huge alley oop dunks last night and one of them is No. 1 on the SportsCenter top 10.

I wonder what our friend Gary Waters had to say in the press conference after taking the shellacking. It had to have been Cleveland State's poor defensive game plan, and inability to make layups.

Say, that reminds me. The team that makes the most baskets wins.

[KL31NY]

Anderson's dunk, featuring commentary. Note the nice no-look pass from Bruinsma to make the play possible

URULE of the NITE: Doug Anderson Alley-Oop Almost Takes the Rim Off
Edit: Since this is SC's Top Play, it's up for "Best of the Best" against Jadeveon Clowney's hit from the Outback Bowl. I just noticed the screen of the voting page said it was an alley-oop from Ray McCallum to Doug Anderson. The video clearly shows it's Calliste ooping it to Doug with Junior standing behind Doug. Yet, even the box score play-by-play gives the assist to Junior. I made such a comment in the "Could This Happen Again" Detroit thread in the "Horizon" section, but how bad can the stats guys at Detroit be?

[KL31NY]

Can we all slow down, the Horizon conference season is a "game at a time" conference. Detroit is the only game that matters right now. We can worry about YSU, Loyola and Green Bay later (although YSU and Loyola are different clubs than when we last saw them). Detroit is one game on the schedule. Win or lose. We just won 2 games on the road in the middle of February. Enjoy. CSU still has a bracketbuster trip and Temple plus the rest of conference season. We need to only worry about us.

seconded. let's just take care of business to close out the season, and then worry about the conference tourney.

Btw, in another 30 pt blowout, Ray Jr plays 37 minutes...

They are an embarrassment to themselves, their fans, and the Horizon League.

A blogger on their website justified the large minutes for the starters in the 30 point blowout; as they were trying to get Jason 1,000 points. 

Really??  Was this the kids final game??  How friggin weak.  I hope the are exhausted on Saturday.

absolutely disgraceful. i'd say sr must really be scared of his bench coughing up a 30 point lead, but it was the starters that did it against us. so there's really no excuse.

Here's a quick peak at the play-by-play where some of the starters are still on the court late, including the bucket that Calliste surpassed 1000 points with...

GOOD! FT SHOT by MINNERATH, Nick       03:09     83-57    H 26    FOUL by MASON, Marlin (P3T8)
GOOD! FT SHOT by MINNERATH, Nick       03:09     84-57    H 27    
REBOUND (DEF) by MINNERATH, Nick       03:01                           MISSED LAYUP by DOUGLAS, Sebastian
GOOD! LAYUP by McCALLUM, Ray [PNT]   02:37     86-57    H 29    
REBOUND (DEF) by BRUINSMA, Evan        02:28                           MISSED 3 PTR by FORBES, Bryn
GOOD! 3 PTR by CALLISTE, Jason [FB] 02:18      89-57    H 32    

[agibson]

Anderson's dunk, featuring commentary. Note the nice no-look pass from "Thrift Shop" to make the play possible

Wow!  That's an _amazing_ play.  From the outlet pass on to the end.  Definitely worthy.  Anderson really is amazing to watch.  Reminds me of the Norris Cole to Lebron James play the other night, except the setup is probably more impressive.

My only point of doubt is the initial steal.  Was it actually a steal?  Or did the ball handler, under pressure, just sort of lose the ball at an odd angle?

Thanks for the link.

(Any love for the KVW footage?)

[bbtds]

CSU still has a bracketbuster trip and Temple plus the rest of conference season. We need to only worry about us.

When is Cleveland State playing Temple? Remember, "scrutiny" is our middle name.